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Reports of a heart scare for Bernie Sanders help Warren move to become odds on favourite for the nomination

October 3rd, 2019

Two national polls and a couple of state surveys in the last 2-days have  shown that Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts is heading the field, by a clear margin, in the fight to be the Democratic nominee in next year’s White House Race. This is a big change for until now the former VP, Joe Biden, had dominated just about all the surveys.

She has been helped by the illness of Bernie Sanders who might have to pull out of the race. In many ways Warren and Sanders had been competing for the left wing vote.

In the betting she’s now moved to be tighter than evens for the nomination. This is quite remarkable given how long it is going to be before Iowa – the first state to decide on the contenders in the primaries. Iowa is due to have its own caucasus on February 3rd and the experience is that what happens in the early states has a big impact on what happens overall.

Before the Sanders illness  the top 3 in the betting were age in their 70s with Warren being the most junior. That’s now changed and as I write Pete Buttigieg, who is still in his 30s,  has moved into third place.

Although I’ve got a good betting position on Warren at longer odds I’m not convinced yet by her.

Mike Smithson