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By the end of the week we just might have a better idea of which of these Brexit options will be the winner

October 14th, 2019


Ladbrokes

And we could see moves for a confirmatory referendum

The phrase from the mid-1960s originated by the then LAB general election winner and PM, Harold Wilson that “a week is a long time in politics” has continued to have resonance over the decades. No doubt we will he hear references to it this week when so much is on the agenda.

There are so many unknowns. Will what was agreed between the UK and Irish PMs at the meeting on Merseyside form the basis of a deal that the EU27 is ready to back. Is there time for that deal to be ready for Saturday when a special session of parliament will be held? If so can Johnson do what his predecessor failed three times to do and get MPs to agree it.

How are DUP MPs going to react when they see the detail of of the plans for a post Brexit Northern Ireland? Their 10 votes could be crucial in terms of getting things through the Commons.

On top of all of this there appears to be a sort soft coup taking place within LAB to marginalise Corbyn particularly on Brexit. The party gives the impression of moving more and more towards a confirmatory referendum on a Brexit deal which could impact on the overall parliamentary arithmetic.

Could Cummings/Johnson find a way round the Benn Act and make it a no deal Brexit after all?

What’s coming out of Brussels suggests there’s a desire to offer an Article 50 extension which is something that would be problematical for the PM given his earlier comments about the UK leaving on October 31st.

Have the architects of the Benn Act got something up their sleeve to add a further obstacle to no deal?

Maybe the coming days will provide the answers. Maybe not!

Mike Smithson