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Post Democratic debate polling finds Klobuchar and Buttigieg getting the biggest ratings boost

October 17th, 2019


Fivethirtyeight.com

My 760/1 bet on Amy starting to look less of a loser

A couple of weeks ago on the Betfair exchange’s WH2020 winner market I noticed that there was £8 available at 760/1 on the Minnesota Senator and contender for the nomination, Amy Klobuchar who so far has had a fairly quiet race.

My view than was that anybody in the running and qualifying to take part in the next debate should have been on tighter odds than that and I made the bet. There are still three and a half months to go before the Iowa Caucuses which kick off the primary season.

Well in this week’s debate she came out well getting a fair bit of attention and demonstrating that she’s clearly capable of holding her own. As can be seen in the table above from the Fivethirtyeight/Ipsos post debate poll she saw the biggest improvement in her net favourability ratings.

She’s yet to reach the qualification threshold for the November debate but if this latest Ipsos polling is on the right track then she could see the movement that will get her over the line.

Second in the net favourability increase was 37 year old Mayor Pete who also had a very good debate. He’s sharpened up considerably.

Currently the top three in the nomination betting – Sanders/Biden/Warren – are in their seventies whilst Trump, who is heavy favourite to secure the Republican nomination is at 73 and also in that age range. I’m betting that the winner of WH2020 will be a lot younger.

A big negative ove Amy Klobuchar is that she’s said to have a furious temper and is terrible boss. If she continues to make progress that will become a bigger issue.

Mike Smithson