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A 3% return in a little over two months?

October 20th, 2019

This market from Paddy Power seems to me a guaranteed way to get a 3% return in a little over two months.

Like a 2019 general election I think we’re running out of time to hold one because the logistical challenges of holding an election in the run up to Christmas are insurmountable.

To hold a 2019 referendum will require primary legislation and the electoral commission guidelines are that it will around twenty-one weeks from announcing a referendum to actually holding it.  A rushed referendum also risks the courts getting involved which would only add to the delay.

Additionally I don’t think there’s a majority for a second referendum in the Commons, even if the DUP decide to back a second referendum following Boris Johnson’s betrayal of a border in the Irish Sea. But given Boris Johnson’s history of u-turns on Brexit he might end up backing another referendum but I cannot see it happening in 2019.

All things considered I think the 1/33 looks a relative bargain.

TSE