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On the betting markets punters now make it a 3.7% chance that Brexit will happen by the end of the month

October 23rd, 2019


Betdata.io chart of Betfair market

Last Thursday it nearly touched 50%

There’s been a huge amount of activity on the £5m Betfair “Brexit by the end of October” market where just six days ago, after the deal was revealed, the chances of the UK leaving by October 31st were rated at 49%. More than £3m has been gambled with this one bookmaker in those few days.

The Commons was always going to be a massive hurdle for Johnson given his precarious position in terms of MP numbers – a situation very much of his own making following the withdrawal of the whip from 21 MPs only last month.

The widespread Tory assumption about getting support LAB MPs in seats which voted leave proved to be largely wishful thinking. The evidence from GE2017, when LAB made more gains from CON in Leave seats than Remain ones, is that the EU is far less of a factor for red team voters than blue team ones.

The fact that some LAB MPs did support Johnson last night did not go unnoticed. The LD leader, Jo Swinson, has sent out a message to members saying:

“..It’s with a heavy heart and immense disappointment that I say Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal has only passed because of Corbyn’s Labour party.

Many Labour MPs voted for this deal, and Corbyn’s weakness on Brexit has passed this deal.

We are now on the path to Brexit – all because Jeremy Corbyn is not a Remainer and his Labour MPs have bailed out Boris Johnson.”

This looks set to be a response to those LAB activists still robotically shouting “tuition fees” when taking on the LDs.

Mike Smithson