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Corbyn goes into the campaign with the worst Ipsos MORI opposition leader ratings it has ever recorded

October 31st, 2019

And it’s hard to see what the party can do about it

Above are the latest satisfaction ratings from Ipsos-MORI which started polling in the late 1970s. As can be seen from the chart Johnson is now in positive territory, Swinson is a net minus 12, Farage a net minus 22 with the LAB leader on minus 60. There are equal the worst numbers for an opposition leader ever.

No doubt LAB optimists will be pointing to what happened at GE2017 when LAB saw a remarkable recovery though the party still lost the election. The hope for the red team is that this will get better as the six week campaign goes on.

As I keep on saying historically leader ratings have proved to be a better guide to electoral outcomes than voting intention polls which is why I highlight them.

As we move towards to the formal campaign period the opposition parties get a bigger slice of the cake from the broadcast media and Corbyn can expect more coverage with Johnson getting a bit less.

The real worry for Labour is that unlike two and a half years ago the LDs are polling at two and a half times the level of what they got then. They’ve also improved their parliamentary position with a by-election success and, of course, a CON and LAB defectors. Their campaign message is totally focused on Brexit and their activity so far appears to be aimed at getting LAB remainer switchers.

The voting intention figures from the pollĀ  are:

Conservatives 41% (+8)
Labour 24% (nc)
Lib Dems 20% (-3)
Brexit Party 7% (-3)
Greens 3% (-1)
Other 5% (nc)

On Betfair a CON majority is now back up a more than 50%.

Mike Smithson