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The Scottish play. Will Wales follow Scotland and abandon Labour at a general election?

November 3rd, 2019

We saw in Scotland tribal loyalty to Labour can be upturned by a nation changing referendum, will Wales be next?

The latest polling in Wales shows the Conservatives leading Labour 29% to 25% yet that 4% lead for the Conservatives still sees Labour win more seats than the Conservatives so it is understandable why Labour are the favourites in this market because first past the post and old constituency boundaries are working against the Conservatives in Wales.

I think there’s also an expectation that we could see 2017 redux when in the run up to the 2017 general election the Conservatives led Labour by 10% in Wales but in the actual election the Conservatives ended up 15% and 20 seats behind Labour.

If I had to choose I’d back Labour to win the most seats, but it wouldn’t be for much money. Another factor that should work against the Conservatives is the Remain Alliance that worked against them in the Brecon & Radnorshire by election, although I’m fairly certain that most of the Conservative candidates in the Wales will not be convicted criminals. Today’s Sunday Times reports that ‘The Liberal Democrats, the Green Party and Plaid Cymru are set to announce plans for a “remain pact” in up to 60 seats in a bid to deny Boris Johnson a Conservative majority…An announcement is expected as early as Tuesday.’

Once the full Welsh constituency markets are available there may well be better value for proxy bets if you’re not keen on betting in this market from Ladbrokes.

If you’re feeling bold you might want to take the 50/1 on the Brexit Party on winning the most seats in Wales, after all they won the popular vote in Wales in the recent European elections. I cannot see it being a winner even if the Brexit Party stood candidates in every seat in Wales, but given the potential for volatility it could be a decent trading bet.

TSE