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GE19’s first big TV event: A debate between 2 men whose parties between them got just 23.2% in the last UK elections

November 4th, 2019

So the argument would be between two leavers

I alway felt a bit sorry for ITV at GE2017 when the leaders’ debate it got was the one without TMay or Corbyn. Maybe because of that it has sought to push forward with its Johnson-Corbyn clash without anybody else. This means excluding Jo Swinson and Nigel Farage of the two most electorally successful parties currently in the UK.

In the May 23rd elections the Brexit Party and the LDs came away with with more than 50% of the vote between them more than double the aggregate of LAB and CON.

The argument goes that the ITV programme will be limited to just the two leaders who it is argued can become PM after December 12th.

I’d suggest that that is wrong. Unless LAB dump Corbyn they’ll be going into the general election led by a man with the worst leader ratings on record and there’s no precedent for someone with these numbers succeeding.

Given that Johnson has to get a majority to be sure of remaining PM there’s a significant chance the Tories could fall short and there are no other parties that Johnson could do a deal with. The DUP aren’t going to back him following what he agreed to on Brexit for Northern Ireland.

My guess is that part of Johnson’s agreement for the ITV debate was that it would be just him and Corbyn. If ITV concede to the pressure then Johnson would pull out.

Mike Smithson