h1

The Brexit divide within LAB’s GE2017 supporter base

November 12th, 2019

LAB seeing significant seepage amongst its GE2107 leavers

But holding up better amongst remainers though the LDs a worry

What’s going to be key is being seen as the main option for tactical votes in key battlegrounds where the Tories are on the offensive, A problem is that a party that’s seen to be hemorrhaging support would find it harder to present itself as the tactical vote choice.

My view is that so much depends on the final week because the one thing that will certainly trigger Brexit will be a CON outright majority. Johnson’s statement that he’d like the UK to be out of the EU by Christmas almost certainly means that it is Brexit that will dominate voters’ minds in the closing stages.

Note that the polling I’m using here is Deltapoll which has not given the don’t knows for these cross-breaks.

Mike Smithson