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A 14% CON lead would give Johnson the margin to stuff the ERG

November 18th, 2019

Survation adds to the LDs misery

A new poll was published by Survation overnight and as can be seen the Lib Dems are the worst hit down 4 points. This means that the last two polls to be published, Deltapoll is the other one, have had very poor news for Jo swinson’s party.

Interestingly these two polls have been from firms which have been leading the way with constituency only surveys the majority of which have been very encouraging for the Lib Dems. The latest round for three London seats from Deltapoll, published in yesterday’s Observer, had them within striking distance in Wimbledon and Kensington.

Maybe what we are seeing is opinion hardening up in both leave and remain areas of the country.

What CON poll leads on the Survation scale do is make the prospect of a Corbyn premiership more remote with LAB facing its fourth successive general election defeat.

If indeed the Tories do romp home with a double digit lead on votes then that would give Johnson a very clear majority in terms of seats which could make him more immune from the ERG faction within his party. There’d be much less risk of ERG rebellions which made the final days of TMay’s tenure at Number 10 such a misery.

There is a wide view that Johnson is not a true believer in Brexit but that he used its cause to help him win the leadership and become PM.

Maybe we are getting ahead of ourselves. It used to be that general election campaigns only last last three weeks. The last one in a winter, February 28th 1974, was actually called on February 7th. What is now the legal standard of a minimum of five weeks gives plenty of time for moods to change.

Mike Smithson