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Biden now back as favourite for the Democratic nomination

November 22nd, 2019

But this is more about Warren-Buttiegieg switching than a Biden Renaissance

The betdata.io chart tells the story of the fight for the Democratic nomination over the past few months and tracks the rise and fall of Elizabeth Warren. At one stage the Senator from Massachusetts was rated at more than a 50% chance on Betfair.

Her decline was triggered by a forensic attack on her by Mayor Pete in the October TV debate when he pressed on the funding for her free healthcare model. Since then it has all been downhill and she did nothing to recover the situation in the the latest debate on Wednesday night.

Then, on his 77th birthday, Joe Biden produced more gaffes but that did not seem to harm him. He didn’t move up in the betting it is just that Elizabeth Warren has dropped below.

Buttigieg has just risen and risen in response to good polling news from the early States. Another Iowa survey has him way ahead with Biden in fourth place. He also got a clear margin in the latest New Hampshire poll. These of course are the first two States to decide.

The big question mark over the prospects for the 37 year old from Indiana is that the national polls have still not caught up with the state ones and he is very much in fourth place. The view of many pundits is that should he do well in first two then he could establish such momentum that will take him through to Super Tuesday on March 3rd when because of the sheer number and size of the States holding primaries, the nomination issue could be largely resolved.

Mike Smithson