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If this polling turns out to be accurate then it is great news for the SNP and Boris Johnson

November 24th, 2019

I have to admit I wasn’t expecting to see this, after all it was heavily trailed earlier on this year, that the Johnson/Cummings strategy to sacrifice Scottish and Remain inclined seats to win a plethora of Labour held Leave inclined seats.

As the country’s greatest ever psephologist, Professor Sir John Curtice, writes

Just a few weeks ago, the Scottish Conservatives appeared to be at serious risk of losing most of the 12 seats they captured from the SNP two years ago. Now, the picture is much brighter for the party, and it looks as though it might be able to retain most of those gains.

We should not be surprised. Since Panelbase last polled north of the border in the first half of October — before Boris Johnson secured his revised deal with the EU — support for the Tories in Britain-wide polls has increased by as much as 10 points. Leave voters have increasingly switched from Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party back to the Conservatives.

My own unscientific hunch for quite some time has been if the Conservatives are doing well in Scotland then that bodes well for the Conservatives in Remain inclined seats in England and Wales.

You can argue that for Conservatives that have doubts about Boris Johnson in Scotland and England & Wales will fall behind the Prime Minister on polling day as you can argue that these voters are disdainful of Scottish Nationalism and Jeremy Corbyn’s Venezuelan tribute act respectively.

As for Scottish Labour, it really is looking like Ajockalypse Now Redux as they hit 2015 levels. I think far too many people in Labour failed to realise their 2017 gains in Scotland were mostly down to the SNP misplacing nearly half a million voters, not because of some great love for Corbyn. 

Only the myopic would say this is a bad result for the SNP because they fail to hit the dizzying heights of 2015, winning nearly 70% of the seats in Scotland is an impressive record, especially after the SNP have been in power for over twelve years at Holyrood.

I’d expect the momentum for another independence referendum in the first half of the next decade will become an irresistible force, on these figures it is the clear will of the people of Scotland. Exciting times for gamblers.

TSE