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We could be just 18 days away from the next LAB leadership contest

November 25th, 2019

The Friday afternoon’s following general elections almost always see at least one party leader stepping down. Given Corbyn has indicated that he will go if LAB register a fourth successive general election defeat then just 18 days from today a party leadership race could begin.

So far as the betdata.io chart shows Rebecca Long-Bailey has now been pipped as the Betfair betting favourite by Keir Starmer but he’s rated by punters as having less than a 20% chance. Quite how this fits with the widespread assumption that the party establishment wants LAB to have its first female leader I don’t know. Certainly most of the top places in the betting a women.

Before the weekend TSE took out a longshot bet on Richard Burgon who increasingly during this election been getting a lot of media coverage. Maybe a male could make it by devising some convoluted promise to bring in a rule change of some sort that would mean the successor is a woman.

I have a small punt at 180/1 on the MP who has appeared in the Commons at  Corbyn’s side almost throughout his leadership, Dawn Butler.  She’s now at 32/1.

Although I don’t have any hot tips and find LAB difficult to read the general pattern with replacing leaders after failing in elections is to choose someone who is very different. Thus the Tories replaced TMay with ex-Mayor. That’s why I think Starmer could be in with a good chance.

Corbyn, who has faced three different Tory PMs, has appeared totally secure in the job in spite of his dreadful leader ratings.

Mike Smithson