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A suggested new cross-break for GE2019 pollsters – separate numbers for Remainia and Leaverstan

December 2nd, 2019

One of the distinctive features of polling for this general election has been the number of single constituency polls and we seem to be getting a new batch every Saturday night. In the main these have been showing something of a different  picture from the main national polls.

I think that just about all of them have been in Remain seats which might explain why some of the seat findings are far less friendly to the Tories.

These are mainly being carried out by Deltapoll for whom GE2019 is its first general election.¬† But there is plenty of deep experience of UK political polling there. The firm is run by Joe Twyman, formerly of YouGov, and Martin Boon from ICM. I think the firm presents its detailed data better than any other firm out there. We’ll know on December 13th how well they have done with their national polls and the seat-specific ones.

Generally all pollsters have in their cross-breaks splits for those who voted Leave and those who vote Remain.

Wouldn’t it also be helpful also if we could see another more general split – what those polled in Remain seats and those in Leave seats are planning to do. This might give us a better guide to trying to predict outcomes in single constituencies where some of the most interesting¬† betting opportunities lie.

My guess is that we’d see a bigger swing to the Tories with even larger leads in Leaverstan but struggling a bit in Remainia.

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My Lib Dem Mailings

There’s has been much discussion on the site and elsewhere about a tactical voting letter from me that was sent out last week by the Lib Dems to selected voters. Quite a few PBers have received one. As is widely known I have been a member of the Lib Dems since its foundation and make no apologies for seeking to help the party during elections.

I should explain that while I approved the text of the letters I did not have a prior view of the list of constituencies they were going to. This was unlike GE2017 when a similar exercise was carried out with me approving every single seat on the constituency list. If I had had an input this time most of the seats would have been the same but I would have had a different list.

For this election letters were put into the Royal Mail system near the start of the election campaign where the post European election result dominated the most recent polling landscape. Since that time of course the YouGov MRP poll and other events have moved the needle.

The party has given me assurances about the future.

Mike Smithson