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The Commons seats spread betting markets appear to have settled down with very little movement

December 4th, 2019

Will it be in these ranges when the exit poll comes out?

Above are the latest Commons seats spreads from SportingIndex which have shown little movement  this week. A way of looking at this is that this is where current betting money is going and to me, at least, there are few obvious bargains.

My main spread bet is on turnout which is currently 66.8% sell and 67.4% buy. I bought at 66.4%. I did have a sell bet at 210 seats which I got out of at 205 making a profits of five times my stake level. Since then, of course, LAB has improved in the polls and this has been reflected on the markets.

This is a form of betting that can be high risk with the more you are right the more you win. Sadly the converse is the case. Back at GE2017 I sold CON seats at 393 and they came out with 318 meaning my winning was the seat gap between the two numbers multiplied by my stake level. I don’t see that happening again,

We saw with the GE2015, the referendum and GE2017 that the betting markets did not have it right. Will that be the same this time?

Roll on the exit poll.

Mike Smithson