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Category: America

Florida Governor Ron DeStantis looks a good bet for the GOP WH2024 nomination

Florida Governor Ron DeStantis looks a good bet for the GOP WH2024 nomination

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He’s currently 6/1 second favourite behind Trump I’ve just had a small punt on DeSantis after reading this in the Wall Street Journal: Mr. DeSantis has burnished his brand with a Covid-19 response that has enthused the voter base of former President Donald Trump while—in Florida, at least—also impressing the kind of moderate and suburban voters who turned away from Mr. Trump in 2020..As the GOP looks to rebuild after losing the presidential election last year, that formula could give…

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If Biden doesn’t run at WH2024 Buttigieg should be as strong a nomination contender as Harris

If Biden doesn’t run at WH2024 Buttigieg should be as strong a nomination contender as Harris

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Currently he’s a 4% betting chance while she’s a 35% one There seems to be a widespread assumption in the betting that should Joe Biden not be running for the 2024 nomination then Kamala Harris will almost automatically be the chosen one. This is reflected in the betting odds where I believe Buttigieg is under priced and Harris is overpriced. A big reason, I would suggest, is that Buttigieg’s role as US Transportation Secretary is going to give him significantly…

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A President without precedent: Which record will Biden break in 2024?

A President without precedent: Which record will Biden break in 2024?

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No President in the post-war era has not sought re-election*. No President as old as Joe Biden has ever been elected (by a margin of several years). In 2024 one of these records will be broken, and there’s value in betting on which. Last week Joe Biden gave his first solo press conference of his tenure, and was asked whether he’ll run again. He says that “My plan is to run for re-election. That’s my expectation,” which shouldn’t be a…

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After their party’s flops at WH2020 and the Senate run-offs Georgia’s Republicans act to make it more difficult to vote

After their party’s flops at WH2020 and the Senate run-offs Georgia’s Republicans act to make it more difficult to vote

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The GOP – Working hard to make the US less democratic The Washington Post reports: Georgia lawmakers approved a sweeping voting measure Thursday that proponents said is necessary to shore up confidence in the state’s elections but that critics countered will lead to longer lines, partisan control of elections and more difficult procedures for voters trying to cast their ballots by mail..The measure is one of the first major voting bills to pass as dozens of state legislatures consider restrictions to how…

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COVID vaccination – the extraordinary political divide in the US

COVID vaccination – the extraordinary political divide in the US

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One of the features of American politics I find difficult understanding is in the above polling. As can be seen supporters of Donald Trump’s party, the Republicans, have a much more negative of vaccination view than Democrats even to the extent that 42% say they don’t plan to take it This is not margin of error stuff but a huge divide and from what we know the refusers are likely putting their own lives at risk. The technical term, I’d…

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New US poll finds that if Trump decides to set up a new party 64% of Republicans would back it

New US poll finds that if Trump decides to set up a new party 64% of Republicans would back it

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Even though he lost his party the White House last November and faces the coming impeachment trial before the Senate a new Hill-Harris finds strong backing for Trump amongst registered Republicans. The split is in the chart above. Amongst independents 28% would back it was would 15% of Democrats Last month, it was reported that Trump had floated the idea of starting a new political party but as yet no concrete plan has emerged.  Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster…

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Two things we don’t yet know

Two things we don’t yet know

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Donald Rumsfeld once famously said: “Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know”. For that, he won the Plain English Campaign’s Foot In Mouth award…

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