Archive for the 'Antisemitism' Category

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LAB’s GE17 performance is misleading as a tactical voting guide because since then its reputation has been tainted by antisemitism

Friday, November 8th, 2019

There weren’t front pages like this before GE2017

So far the LAB GE19 campaign has been dominated by furious attacks like the one above from the Jewish Chronicle and nearly half a dozen candidates having to stand aside because they are on record as stated things that can be seen as anti semitic.

For the Labour party that is going into this election continues to be afflicted by impact of it and its leader’s actions on this form of racism. One thing’s for sure this isn’t going to go away before December 12th.

An area critical to the campaign where this looks set to impact is on tactical voting which Corbyn’s party is hoping to benefit from as it did last time as being the best option to impede Brexit. Then it ended with a GB vote share of 41%. The latest YouGov has that at 25% a whopping 16 points short of two and half years ago.

If you look over the polling in this parliament all was going well for Labour from June 2017 till February 2018. In that period it enjoyed leads in all or the majority of polls each month. Then came the Corbyn mural row which triggered off a raft of negative coverage on antisemitism which has continued.

This impacted on both the voting intention polls and the leader ratings for Corbyn which are now at a record low. Every single voting intention poll bar one since Johnson became PM has had CON leads

There’s a big fight currently going on between different sites on tactical voting – which party you should support in each constituency to give you best chance of defeating Johnson’s pro-Brexit Tories. One faction is keen to focus almost entirely on what happened at GE2017 when LAB was at its peak. The other factions focus on other more up to data which is less helpful to the red team.

The problem with the GE2017 baseline approach is that this wants to take you back two and a half years before the antisemitism issue emerged. The fact is that this has had a profound impact and it is harder to argue what happened in a particular seat on June 8th 2017 is relevant. Before the last general election the Jewish Chronicle wasn’t running front pages like the one above.

Mike Smithson




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Latest polling round-up

Thursday, October 31st, 2019



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Another female Jewish MP is hounded out of Labour

Wednesday, October 16th, 2019

Why is it that the haters go for the women?

Incidents like this and the failure of the party under Corbyn to deal with it are a big reason, I’d suggest, behind the poor voting intention numbers and his disastrous record negative leader ratings.

If you plot Labour’s decline since GE2017 there was a turning point in March 2008 when the story of Corbyn and the antisemitic mural emerged. The party dropped sharply and from a period when it was in the low 40s or late 30s it is now down to barely half the share it chalked up two and a half years ago.

For some reason it is female Jewish LAB MPs who appear to be the target. Maybe the social media warriors hiding behind their anonymity feel emboldened to pursue the course they do.

A serious party leader would have taken firm action and shown real leadership. Corbyn didn’t.

Quite where it goes from here it is hard to say while the incumbent clings onto his job.

Louise Ellman’s letter above is totally damning but, no doubt, Jezza swill stay.

Mike Smithson




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On the eve of the Lib Dem conference defection speculation goes in to overdrive

Friday, September 13th, 2019

The tweet by Michael Foster, a former Labour MP, has seen speculation increase about who might be defecting, I’ve long suspected the Lib Dems have a defection or two ready for their conference, we shall see if it turns out Michael Foster’s tweet turns out to be accurate. My reading of his tweet was the defection was not related to Brexit but anti-Semitism.

I understand why people may have thought it was Rosie Duffield, her constituency party tried to censure her last year after she criticised Jeremy Corbyn’s handling of the anti-Semitism issues swirling around Labour.

Hopefully some bookmakers will open markets on who may defect.

TSE

 



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Labour has to face up to the blindingly obvious – the Corbyn brand is busted

Thursday, August 15th, 2019


Deltapoll July 27 2019

The biggest impediment to the movement is the man at the top

The main challenge to LAB as it seeks to keep in the game is that its leader is dragging it down. Three weeks ago Deltapoll asked a supplementary question in its first post PM Johnson poll. How would you vote if Labour was led by someone other than Corbyn? The outcome is in the chart above.

The detailed data from he latest Survation poll shows a pattern that we are seeing from all the pollsters – something like a quarter of Labour’s GE2017 vote has now gone to the LDs and a tenth to the Brexit party.

Corbyn’s personal ratings have almost totally collapsed. Recent Ipsos MORI polls have seen dissatisfaction numbers for Corbyn touch 75% which is by far the worst recorded by the firm for any leader in all the 45 years the pollster has been asking its leader rating questions.

A real worry is that in its latest poll Ipsos found just 49% of current Labour voters are satisfied with the job Corbyn is doing (up five points), but 43% are dissatisfied, as are 92% of Liberal Democrats.

Nothing in this is new to Labour activists who have been getting strong anti-Corbyn responses on the doorstep for month.

All this means is that there are no downsides for Jo Swinson when she snubs Corbyn’s latest opportunistic initiatives.

The great thing for the LDs the Tories and Farage’s party is that Corbyn isn’t going anywhere.

Mike Smithson


 



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64 LAB peers pay for Guardian ad to tell Corbyn that he fails the test of leadership

Wednesday, July 17th, 2019

Time to bet on him not surviving 2019?

The wording of the ad above is powerful and will get a lot of attention but the question is how will it impact on the future of the Labour leader who won the job convincingly in the 2015 leadership election and retained it a year later.

The wording is quite smart because it does not accuse him of being antisemitic but questions whether his approach to the crisis that has engulfed the party for 4 years is down to his failure as leader.

It comes at a time when there is a real possibility of an early general election and, of course, we’re now in the run up to the Party Conference season. My guess is the peers are trying to exert the maximum pressure on him to step aside and make way for someone else.

One of the things about members of The House of Lords is that there is no way that the party machine can touch them. They are there for life or until such time as they decide themselves not to be active members of the upper house.

This must put Corbyn’s future into serious doubt as he did appear to be the most secure of all the party leaders because of the view that he continues to have widespread backing amongst the party membership.

In recent months Corbyn’s leadership ratings have dropped substantially and in the latest Ipsos Mori polling 75% of those sampled said they were dissatisfied with his leadership. This is the highest negative ever recorded of any opposition leader and suggests that he is a an electoral liability. Even most LAB voters in the polling say they they are dissatisfied.

On Betfair it is a 29% chance that Corbyn will leave the leadership this year. That might be worth a punt. Currently Rebecca Long-Bailey is the favourite to succeed him.

Mike Smithson


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As we wait for the controversial Panorama report on LAB and antisemitism

Wednesday, July 10th, 2019

The programme is on BBC1 at 9pm.

Mike Smithson




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A year on since Corbyn’s anti-semitic mural row and the issue continues to plague LAB and its leader

Monday, March 11th, 2019

This could cost LAB more than just Jewish votes

It was in March last year that the antisemitic row within LAB gathered media traction following the revelation of his positive response on Facebook in 2012 to what was clearly an anti-semitic mural on the wall of a building in East London. That led amongst other things to demonstrations in Parliament Square against him and the party.

Commenting at the time under the heading “Corbyn’s ‘regret’ over an antisemitic mural doesn’t go remotely far enough” the Guardian columnist Matthew D’Ancona wrote:

“…. why does Corbyn – admirably proactive in tackling other forms of prejudice – seem to squirm and dither when confronted with allegations of antisemitism? As Richard Gold, a party member active in the anti-racist Engage campaign, put it in his submission to Shami Chakrabarti’s inquiry into Labour antisemitism: “[It is] as though being unpleasant to Jews … should be excused or minimised, treated merely as rudeness or bad manners, rather than racist behaviour…

…Antisemitism is on the rise all over the world. According to the Community Security Trust, a record number of antisemitic incidents were reported in the UK last year. Why does this bother Corbyn as little as it seems to? Does he believe in universal rights and equality of worth, or not? The fact that the Labour leader appears to regard allegations of antisemitism as an irritant rather than a fundamental issue says nothing good about him. In this respect, at least, the writing is upon the wall.

In spite of all that has happened since D’Ancona’s observations are as relevant today as they were a year ago.

The hard fact is to the LAB leader this form of racism has the potential to dog him as long he survives in the job. Whenever any issue related to antisemitism comes up his response continues to be closely monitored and highlighted.

His ultra loyal supporters, of course, shout “smear” and blame the media but that has little impact.

If there is an early election, and with TMay’s precarious parliamentary position that is a risk at all times, Corbyn’s less than convincing position on antisemitism looks set to be massive distraction to the LAB campaign and will influence more than just Jewish voters.

  • The Marf cartoon above first appeared in the Jewish Chronicle

    Mike Smithson