Archive for the 'Antisemitism' Category

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Ken Livingstone, the ex-mayor who keeps talking about Hitler, quits the Labour party

Monday, May 21st, 2018



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LAB supporters are deluding themselves if they think an anti-CON rainbow coalition would automatically back Corbyn for PM

Monday, May 7th, 2018

Corbyn’s poor leader ratings highlight the weakness

Ever since general election seat projections like the one from Sky above have appeared LAB supporters and Corbyn enthusiasts have been saying that last Thursday the party won LE2018 and if it had been had a general election then Corbyn would be the one being called to the Palace.

This is based on the unfounded and somewhat arrogant assumption by LAB that all the SNP, LD, PC and GRN MPs would simply line up behind Corbyn to form a workable government to stop the Tories.

There are two things wrong with this: there’s a lack of understanding of what drives other parties and LAB’s current leader has little appeal outside.

The LDs have had their own bitter experience of coalition and it is hard to see them backing LAB while Corbyn is equivocal on Brexit and there’s still the stench of antisemitism hanging over his party. How Labour responds to some upcoming Brexit votes in the commons could muddy the waters for years to come.

    Also leadership polling has consistently shows that LD voters are more hostile to Corbyn than to TMay. Thus the latest Opinium finds 18% of current LD voters saying they approve of Mrs May but only 9% say the same of Corbyn. Even at peak Corbynania last August LD voters were two to one against JC

There’s little love lost between the SNP and LAB and Nicola Sturgeon would surely want a huge concession from Corbyn on constitutional matters in exchange for its backing.

We’ve also got to ask whether Corbyn, given the difficulties he has demonstrated managing the coalition of interests that is the Labour party, has the skills to build and manage a group of other parties. I’d suggest he hasn’t and would find it difficult making the compromises to get and retain support from other parties.

Mike Smithson




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Those PBers who took the Barnet tips are in the money this morning

Friday, May 4th, 2018

Have we seen the high water of Corbynism?

Over the past few weeks there have been several posts here suggesting that the best bet of the local elections was on the key LAB target in London – Barnet. TSE started it all on March 25th when the Tories were 5/1 with Ladbrokes and he suggested that that we should bet that LAB wouldn’t do it.

Then we heard from Sean Fear and myself who argued that this borough, where a number of key wards have very large Jewish communities, was not going to be as easy for LAB as appeared.

We then focused on the Childs Hill ward which we suggested was going to be decisive and could tip if there was a high turnout of Jewish voters. And it was the result from Childs Hill at just after 6am that finally turned the Borough back to the Tories.

When the betting opened Ladbrokes had LAB as 1/8 favourites to take the council and they’ve been odds-on throughout.

Overall it has been a miserable night for LAB in London as one target after another seemed to slip through their hands. Outside the capital they did turn Trafford from CON to NOC and had a good victory in Plymouth.

So far the main winners have been the LDs who so far have made most seat gains of any party and have re-taken Richmond in SW London and beaten back a strong challenge from the Tories in Sutton which stayed in yellow hands.

This bodes well for the LDs in Kingston and Watford where they are defending the elected mayoralty.

Mike Smithson




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Corbyn’s Ipsos MORI satisfaction ratings drop to lowest point since GE2017

Monday, April 30th, 2018

Just three out of five LAB voters give him positive rating

Meanwhile there’s some voting intention cheer for the LDs

The big story from the April Ipsos MORI poll in the Standard is a further deterioration in Mr corbyn’s satisfaction ratings. These, from the pollster, have been asking the same format for well over 40 years and is the longest UK leader rating series in the UK.

The numbers are the first to come from the pollster since emergence of the mural that sparked off Labour’s latest antantisemitism row and moved it into new territory.

The voting figures, seen above, see little change except for the Lib Dems who jumped a whopping 4 points 10% which is the highest figure recorded in any poll since the last general election.

This is probably the last national public poll that will see before Thursdays local elections and it will be interesting to see if the trends here are seen in the results as they come in on Thursday evening and Friday.

Mike Smithson




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Corbyn accused of being a coward for leaving the chamber at the start of the antisemitism debate

Tuesday, April 17th, 2018



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The must win the for LAB on May 3rd – Barnet with its sizeable Jewish communities

Wednesday, April 11th, 2018

A long-standing PBer with great knowledge of London local elections has emailed me to suggest that the 11/4 on a CON majority on Barnet Council in next month’s locals is a “good value bet”.

I know that he himself is big Tory activist and knows this area very well. If he is getting the message that it might not be the certain LAB gain that was being suggested a few weeks ago then I for one take that seriously.

I’ve not identified him and I hope he might be able to participate in the discussion.

Some parts of Barnet, have the biggest concentrations of Jewish voters anywhere in the UK and I should imagine that the recent machinations within Corbyn’s Labour have gone down like a bowl of sick.

Ladbrokes still has a CON majority at 11/4 with a LAB one at 1/4 and no overall control at 12/1.

Maybe worth a punt? This is not a prediction but a suggestion that the chance of it happening might be better than the odds available.

Mike Smithson




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Based on last night Corbyn doesn’t look as though he’s treating LAB’s antisemitism crisis seriously

Monday, April 2nd, 2018

And David Herdson’s right – one of the attendees has leaked this

Mike Smithson




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The one way for LAB to close down its antisemitism crisis is for Corbyn to go but that is not going to happen

Monday, April 2nd, 2018

This continues to dominate the headlines

The ongoing narrative over anti-semitism within the Labour Party has now gone beyond the point when the former spin doctor, Alastair Campbell, said that a bad news story should have been closed down. Tony Blair’s spin doctor used to observe that if one was running more than a week after it started then it was serious.

By that judgement this is really starting to look very problematical for Labour and Mr Corbyn and it’s hard to see what is going to close it down. There are so many cases to be dealt with in the pipeline that we are going to get continual reminders of this running sore and you can be sure that Labour’s opponents are going to do their best to keep on bringing it up.

    Mischievously the government is making time available in the Commons for a debate and the overnight news about Corbyn’s Facebook account being deleted is only going to add to the media hunger.

Today’s Times is reporting that 17k members have been lost this year and only last week 3k of them did not renew their direct debits.

Ironically this will only make the party’s membership base even more pro-Corbyn because you would assume that those who have gone were not part of his fan-base.

The real worry for the party must be that this is so associated with their leader that this will continue as an ongoing irritation while he remains in the job. Given his huge support amongst the membership seen in the recent YouGov members’ poll then it is hard to see him stepping aside.

The political point is that voters don’t like split parties and that is what this row highlights.

Mike Smithson