Archive for the 'Betting' Category


The “Will Trump survive full term betting” edges back to him making it

Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017

I love today’s New York Daily News front page that I thought it would be a good peg to look at what are by far the biggest current political betting markets – will Trump survive a full term and what year will he leave the White House.

These tend to fluctuate sharply and in the past couple of days the money has moved back a notch to Trump’s survival.

In the aftermath of the white supremacist matches and Trump’s initial controversial comments the Betfair chances of him going the full term edged to a 44% chance. That’s now moved back to 47%.

As for the year of his exit 2020 and beyond has now become a stronger favorite following the bounce back. 2017 is now a 9% chance, 2018 27%, 2019 17% with 2020 and beyond 47%.

This is not a market I’ve gambled on. My feeling at the moment is that he will survive but that he’ll struggle to win a second term. I don’t like locking up cash on longer term bets unless the odds are far longer than what we have here. Also I think the betting in the UK is very much driven by the anti Trump sentiment – this is very much a heart over head market.

If you think he will go early and want to bet then now might be a good time.

Mike Smithson


New leader ratings in 3 state key to Trump’s 2016 victory have him with big favourability deficits

Sunday, August 20th, 2017

Those of us who stayed up all night for the White House election last November will recall the huge focus on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – states won by Obama in 2012 which went to the Republican last year.

These were won by the tightest of margins down to 1.23% in Wisconsin, 0.64% in Pennsylvania and 0.23% in Michigan and were central to Trump’s shock victory.

Now the latest Mairist/NBC News polling in these three states finds that Trump has a huge net ratings deficit. Given the well recorded linkage between favourability rating polls and electoral outcomes this does not look good for Trump if he is considering going for a second term.

They also send a sharp message out to his party that he could be en electoral liability which could impact on other elections. If he is to go early then senior Republican figures have to be the ones to pull the trigger.

In the betting Trump’s is now odds-on not to complete a full first term. Latest price have that at 55%.

Mike Smithson


The good news for TMay’s successor is that her party’s due to exceed expectations next time

Saturday, August 19th, 2017

The pattern appears to be clear

One of the great things about monitoring election betting is that it gives you a good indication of what expectations were at a particular time and these can be interesting to look back at.

The above is taken from what the spread betting seat levels were immediately before the five general elections since the millennium.

As is shown in the chart the Tories seem to alternate between exceeding expectations or falling short of them.

As we all know Team TMay went into election day in June fully expecting to secure an increased majority. This was in sharp contrast to GE2015 when the expectation was that Cameron would certainly win most seats but would struggle to reach the magical total if 326 seats. He got 332.

Five years earlier at GE2010 the polls were narrowing but it was on the margin as to whether a majority would be achieved. ATories were 19 seats short.

At GE2005 the polls did exceptionally well but Michael Howard’s Tories managed to do better than expectations.

Four years earlier at GE2001 William Hague went into the election having “won” the Euros in 1999. The feeling was that the blues would make some progress from the 1997 hammering by Tony Blair. They closed the vote gap by 3.5% but only increased their seat total by one.

If this alternating pattern continues then at the next election the Tories should do better than expectations.

Mike Smithson


The Ladbrokes 20/1 that the Brexit Secretary, DDavis, will be next Cabinet minister out looks like a value bet

Wednesday, August 16th, 2017

Good bets are not predictions but an assessment that the chances of a particular outcome are better than what the bookies are offering.

Given all the noise round the BrexSec in the Tweet Tsunami from former DD aide James Chapman I reckon that the Ladbrokes 20/1 that he’ll be the next cabinet minister out is value.

The Chapman allegation point that is really striking and I’d suggest most damaging is the one the Times is highlighting this morning – the allegation that DDavis only works three days a week.

    Given how crucial these negotiations are to the future of the country the suggestion, true or false, that the man in charge is not giving it his full focus is one that hits home.

TMay is due to arrive back at Downing Street after her four week holiday tomorrow and no doubt she’s been giving a lot of thought to the challenges ahead. Maybe we could see some cabinet moves as TMay seeks to assert her authority.

An early exit for Davis is surely greater than a 20/1 chance.

Mike Smithson


Johnson the big loser – Rees-Mogg the big winner in the CON leadership betting since the election

Tuesday, August 15th, 2017

Given that the loss of the CON overall majority at general election happened less than ten weeks it is quite extraordinary to look back at the change in TMay replacement betting since then.

In the aftermath of TMay’s failure to retain a majority the general assumption was that she’d quit within days and we’d be into to another leadership contest. The other assumption was that if Johnson could get through to the final round of voting, which is amongst the membership, then he would sweep in.

The Tory system, of course, involves the parliamentary party holding a series of ballots until a short-list of two is agreed to go to the membership which makes the final choice. Johnson had long been seen as the members’ favourite and this was reflected in his then 30%+ betting price.

The following weeks have seen the ex-Mayor and foreign secretary slip further and further in the betting and as I write he’s now fourth favourite rated by punters as just a 9% chance.

At the moment there is no clear from runner and we have the rise of Rees-Mogg who is not even a minister.

What we don’t know is whether there is going to be a contest at all. Could it be that TMay’s extended summer holiday, means that she’s been giving a lot of consideration to what happens next?

My guess is that I’ll be still writing “Next CON leader betting posts” for the next three or four years.

Mike Smithson


The August 2017 silly season continues – Ladbrokes now taking bets on “the Democrats” for the next General Election

Monday, August 14th, 2017

The party doesn’t even exist yet

I’m always impressed by the way bookies can sometimes create markets that appear to be designed to appeal to the wishful thinking of some punters. Today sees Ladbrokes offering 250/1 on the “Democrats” , currently a theoretical party suggested in a Tweet by James Chapman, winning most seats at the next general election.

Much as personally I want to remain in the EU I’m not tempted by the bet.

Mike Smithson


Jacob Rees-Mogg heads for the favourite slot in the TMay successor betting as the DDavis decline continues

Monday, August 14th, 2017

A silly season story we can ignore or a real possibility?

The betting chart above shows the dramatic changes there’ve been in the CON leadership Betfair betting over the weekend with interest in the once clear favourite, Davd Davis, moving down sharply and the extraordinary rise of back-bencher Jacob Rees-Mogg.

William Hill reported last night that ““There is definitely some momentum behind Jacob Rees-Mogg and in the last month he has been the most popular candidate by far”.

The latest moves appear to have been sparked off by two factors – an article by Matthew Parris in the Times on Saturday and and a fiery Radio 4 discussion between Rees-Mogg and James Chapman, the ex-aide to the BrexSec, James Chapman, of which much has been written following his avalanche of Tweets.

This will be further fueled by an article in the Telegraph under the heading “Exclusive: Cut stamp duty now, says Jacob Rees-Mogg, as he reveals his vision for the Conservative Party”.. In his article Rees-Mogg writes:

“..One of life’s small pleasures is that those who do not dispose themselves in a spirit of friendship often do more good than harm. The golden-penned Matthew Parris, by attacking the idea of my becoming leader of the Conservative Party, has given it a spurious veneer of respectability that it does not deserve. First of all, I unequivocally support Theresa May, and do not covet her job. Second, if I did I would be a fool for only in Opposition do political parties choose leaders who have never held high ministerial office.

Third, I neither am a candidate, nor wish to be one. I want to be the servant of the Conservative Party, not its master. Nor is this some clever plan to seek other office; if it were, it would have been scotched some weeks ago when it was suggested to the PM,...”

But if he is dissing the idea of being leader and PM then why is he setting out his vision for the party? That is exactly what serious leadership contenders would be doing. His point, though, about never having held high ministerial office is surely a good one but these are strange times.

Maybe the prospect of having PM Rees-Mogg will help reinforce the case for keeping the humiliated GE2017 failure, TMay in post?

I wish I was Betfair punter who got £5 on Rees-Mogg at 170/1 who must be feeling pretty pleased at the moment.

Mike Smithson


There’s a case for saying that Johnson’s the best equipped to lead the Tories to Brexit and beyond

Sunday, August 13th, 2017

Who else is capable of selling what’ll be portrayed as a sell-out?

Whoever is the PM as we exit the EU will have a massive task on her/his hand selling the Brexit deal or other arrangement to the party and to the country as a whole.

The parliamentary Tory party is hugely divided as it has been on Europe for several decades and some are not going to compromise on issues like continuing payments or future links with European institutions.

One of the areas where TMay could have done better is in trying to unite the country following the referendum outcome.

    The PM’s uncompromising stance reinforced many remainers to use their vote on June 8th in a way that was going to be most productive in stopping the PM irrespective of their concerns about Corbyn’s Labour.

I’ve never been a fan of Johnson but I recognise that unlike most of the other potential contenders he can, if he applies himself, be mentally agile enough to present things well and change as the situation demands. This is almost the total opposite of the incumbent whose rigid red lines are making the task of David Davis even more difficult.

Theresa May is almost totally incapable of thinking on her feet and doesn’t have the self-awareness to understand how she is coming over. Johnson is a totally different proposition.

The great thing about having him as CON leader and PM is that he would be totally focused on remaining in the job after the next general election and that would drive his approach to the negotiations.

After being the strong favourite to succeed May after the general election he has slumped in the betting from a 30% chance to an 8% one.

Mike Smithson