Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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A couple of new betting specials from Ladbrokes

Wednesday, November 22nd, 2017


Looking to recoup their losses from their disastrous buzzword bingo market Ladbrokes have put up a couple of new markets.

The 6/4 on Philip Hammond looks good as budget seems to be received across the Tory party, but that includes praise from John Redwood, which makes me doubt that long term this budget will be well received, the golden rule for budgets is that budgets applauded on the day, usually unravel shortly thereafter.

Coupled with the general uncertainty about Mrs May, the odds are a bit too skinny for me, I suspect a new PM will want to have their own Chancellor in place.

The second bet I’m going to back, what struck me in recent days is the lack of full blown opprobrium aimed at Kezia Dugdale by the SNP over her appearance in ‘I’m A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here’ and not focusing on her constituents.

It is well known that her partner is an SNP MSP, Jenny Gilruth, and well love does conquer all, I wonder if a defection is on the cards, I’d stake more if the bet allowed a defection in 2018. I’m probably reading too much into these tweets from a Scottish journalist and a Tory MSP from a few days ago.

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Stop, Hammond Time

Wednesday, November 22nd, 2017

Usually budgets have problems after they’ve been delivered, this one seems to falling apart before it has been delivered. You get the feeling that this will be Philip Hammond’s last budget, only 16 months after becoming Chancellor, those YouGov figures are quite damning for Philip Hammond, no wonder Ladbrokes have a next Chancellor market up.

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Today’s budget buzzword bingo

Wednesday, November 22nd, 2017

Ladbrokes have put up their customary Budget buzzword bingo, I’m avoiding this market as nothing leaps out as value and I really don’t fancy contributing to the Ladbrokes Christmas bonus fund. Ladbrokes also have a market up on the colour of Philip Hammond’s tie, this is another market I’m going to avoid for the same reasons.

There is one bet that does intrigue me and I think is worth a few pounds, 16/1 on Ken Clarke to fall asleep during the  budget.

The greatest Prime Minister we never had has form for this, he was accused of falling asleep during the 2011 budget, he denied it, but Ladbrokes paid out on it, because they had a similar market up then as well and they took Ed Miliband’s accusation as proof.

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This is one betting market I’m absolutely confident the punters have undoubtedly got right

Tuesday, November 21st, 2017

But in good news for Mrs May the latest Kantar polls gives the Tories a 4% lead, at the general election they were giving the Tories a 5% lead, versus the 2.5% lead they actually achieved

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Deal or no deal

Tuesday, November 21st, 2017

Why I can’t see a deal being agreed before the 1st of April 2019

Ladbrokes have a market up on a few Brexit related markets, out of these three I’m quite keen to take the 6/4 on there being no Brexit deal being agreed before the 1st of April 2019.

My logic behind this is that for a long time I’ve had the feeling that 2 years to do a deal is practically impossible even for a competent government with a decent majority. You cannot undo 46 years worth of laws, regulations, standards et al in 2 years, after all when the UK joined the EC we had a seven years of transition.

With stories emerging in recent days that ‘EU member states have sought legal advice from the European Commission over a possible extension of the two-year negotiation period set out in Article 50’ it is possible to see how the March 2019 exit date is pushed back to ensure we get a Brexit that works for the UK and the EU27.

Of course this is also a good tip if you think the Brexit talks fail, and given the current logjam over stage one over exit payment and the Irish border question it isn’t hard to see the talks failing and into recriminations about the looming disaster for all sides, and a no deal, no transition, disorderly Brexit will negatively impact all current members of the EU, not just us, though we will bear the brunt of it.

I don’t think that 6/4 will last long.

For the purposes of this bet Ladbrokes clearly state, A Brexit Deal = A withdrawal agreement under Article 50(2), approved by The Council of the European Union & UK Government.

TSE

 



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Do you want to bet on some Robert Mugabe related betting markets? Now you can

Tuesday, November 21st, 2017

In news that will shock most punters, Paddy Power become the first and only bookmaker to have some Robert Mugabe related bets in light of the recent attempted coup d’état in Zimbabwe.

My initial reaction to these markets is this is a market that you’d rather be the bookie than the punter, however if Mugabe does manage to cling on to power, then that 30/1 Grace Mugabe to be Robert Mugabe’s successor might be a coup de grâce for Paddy Power, but a very small stake might be prudent.

As for the second market, given the wording, it’s a market I wouldn’t touch with somebody else’s barge poll, but if you have any tips, feel free to share them.

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Betting on the location of the new HQ of the European Medicines Agency

Monday, November 20th, 2017

Today we get to see an early dividend of Brexit when the EU27 have a vote to choose the new host city for the headquarters of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to replace London.

London will no longer host the HQ post Brexit because of Mrs May’s desire to implement the result of the referendum and the campaign therein to ‘Vote Leave to take back control of our laws’, since the EMA is underpinned by the ECJ that means our withdrawal from the EMA and only members of the EMA can host the HQ.

Ladbrokes have a market up on the winning city, this looks like a market solely designed to contribute the Ladbrokes Christmas bonus fund, but I’m tempted to stick small stakes on Dublin and Lille at 16/1 each, my logic is that there are stories that the staffers don’t want to move some of the cities listed above, and it might be easier to move to the nearest location to London (Lille) or the only other English speaking city on the list.

Today also sees the vote to replace London as the HQ of the EU Banking Authority for the same reasons as the EMA, Ladbrokes also have a market up on that too, however the terms of my contract of employment enjoin me from betting or offering tips on this market.

I do wonder if the realities of these two moves out of the UK (and the resultant jobs) in the news today might see an uptick in the polling that sees Brexit as the wrong course of action and give succour to those in Parliament opposed to a hard/WTO Brexit.

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It appears that Mrs May is making plans for Damian Green’s departure

Sunday, November 19th, 2017

William Hill are offering 7/2 on Damian Green as being next out of the cabinet, with Mrs May making preparations for Green’s departure, it seems like a wise bet, but one I’ll be sitting out, having been burnt in this market ever since successfully tipping Maria Miller’s departure back in 2014.

Green’s position has become less secure since he appeared in recent days to resile from his opening position that there was no porn on his computer.

The other interesting aspect of this story is that Lord Hague doesn’t want to take up Mrs May’s offer, which would have a major impact on how this government operates were Green to depart, June 2017 to November 2017 might be the ‘high point’ of the competency of The Second May Ministry were Mrs May not be able to get a deputy that she trusts as much as her university coeval Damian Green.

TSE