Archive for the 'Betting' Category


Trump’s “hairstyle” – not a bet that tempts me but fun all the same

Thursday, February 8th, 2018


Those from elite schools continue to dominate the betting to succeed state-educated Theresa

Thursday, February 8th, 2018

It is perhaps worth remembering that for a 40 year period, until David Cameron was elected, the Tories made a point of choosing as leaders those who were from more humble backgrounds. So general election winners Heath, Thatcher, and Major all went to state schools – the latter not even going to university.

How things look so differently now as we contemplate who will succeed TMay who went to what is now a comprehensive near Oxford.

Rees-Mogg and Johnson, first and second favourites in the betting, are old Etonians. Next one down, Amber Rudd was at Cheltenham Ladies College.

Jacob Rees-Mogg has a weird entry in his Wikipedia listing on his prep school.

“Living in Somerset he regularly commuted to his family’s second home in Smith Square, London where he also attended independent boys’ school Westminster Under School.”

So the Rees-Moggs were not ready to put their son into the Somerset schools.

Going down the betting Hunt was at Charterhouse before going to Magdalen Oxford.

Does this all matter? Well it certainly makes it harder for them to paint Remainers as being the “elite”. There is nothing more elite than going to Eton.

Mike Smithson


Moggy ousts Jezza as next PM betting favourite

Monday, February 5th, 2018

The father of 6 who has never changed a nappy now a 16% chance – Corbyn 14%

Over the weekend there has been a big change on the next prime minister betting market on Betfair. The long-standing favourite since the general election, Mr Corbyn, has now slipped to second place behind Jacob Rees-Mogg who is attracting a lot of betting support at the moment for both the CON leadership and the next occupant of Number 10.

Rees-Mogg has been the favourite for some time for next CON leader but it ha been quite amazing that Corbyn has retained his top betting slot for so long. It has been blindingly obvious that it is very difficult for Corbyn to be next prime minister before the next general election. There simply aren’t the MP numbers there on the Labour side and the Fixed Term Parliament Acts makes an early election much harder to achieve

The rise of Moggy, who has never even been a minister, and the talk of an imminent challenge to Mrs May has changed betting sentiment.

There is no doubt that he has the big momentum at the moment and he would surely prosper well with the elderly male oriented CON membership if he could garner the votes of enough CON MPs to make the final two.

At the moment there is no contest and Mrs May remains in place.

Mike Smithson


R.I.P. The Conservative Party 1834-2018 if the Brexiteer dream is realised

Sunday, February 4th, 2018

It’s either a/the customs union or remaining Prime Minister Mrs May.

Until Mrs May voluntarily stands down or is forced out we’re going to be subjected to stories like this. What is interesting is that it is the more fundamentalist Brexiteers that are revolting.

I suspect Mrs May will propose a much more pragmatic deal than these Brexiteers are prepared to accept, so taking the evens that Ladbrokes are offering a vote of confidence on Mrs May being triggered in 2018 might be attractive.

If Mrs May does agree to a customs union deal with the EU then The Sunday Times article says Liam Fox is prepared to resign, Paddy Power are offering 10/1 on the disgraced former Defence Secretary having to resign again.

But I suspect this is all posturing, if the Brexiteers had the numbers, they would have already made their move against the Prime Minister,  The Sunday Times say

Under the “Three Brexiteers” plan, senior jobs would be found for Priti Patel, the former cabinet minister, and Dominic Raab, the housing minister overlooked for promotion by May in her January reshuffle.

The plotters fear that a failure to pre-agree a plan would lead to a “free for all” in which up to seven Brexiteers would fight it out to take on home secretary Amber Rudd, defence secretary Gavin Williamson and health secretary Jeremy Hunt, the other frontrunners.

Penny Mordaunt, the new international development secretary and Brexiteer, has told colleagues that she has had “leadership training”.

Johnson’s allies believe he would have to win support from non-Eurosceptics to secure the leadership and have encouraged him to make overtures to Rudd, with a view to making her Britain’s first female chancellor.

Let us assume the Brexiteer dream is realised, I suspect they won’t have the votes in The Commons to pass any Brexit related and non Brexit related legislation with such a dream team.

That’s before we consider the point  just how unpopular the three Brexiteer government would be. That the government would be fronted by some of the most loathed and hated politicians in the country, with major roles earmarked for the architect of Universal Credit, a minister who recently had to resign in disgrace, and a backbench MP who can be characterised as having pre-Plantagenet conservative views.

When the Tory Party starts obsessing about the EU, it often resembles a monkey house with only laxatives for food, Jeremy Corbyn might as well start measuring the curtains for Number 10 if the Tory Brexiteer dream is realised.




The Sun once again leading the pack reporting negative developments on TMay’s future

Thursday, February 1st, 2018

The frequency of the paper’s reports should worry TMay’s backers

Last week it will be recalled it was the Sun’s Harry Cole who in two exclusive reports highlighted that the number of CON MPs signing letters to 1992 Chief Graham Brady was on the increase and was perhaps almost there.

In today’s paper there’s a follow-up to that story from Tom Newton Dunn who suggests that a leading minister is planning to speak out directly against Theresa May’s continuation in the job and then of course resign.

“The respected Tory MP has told allies he is close to resigning in a principled protest at the PM’s failing leadership.

He then intends to issue a call for new direction for the party in a speech from the Commons backbenches.

The minister – whose identity is known by The Sun – is one of a number not in the Cabinet left very frustrated by the PM’s failure to promote the younger generation into senior jobs during her botched New Year reshuffle.

No10 aides will fear his outburst is likely to trigger a chain reaction of other ministers and MPs also speaking out in a bid to persuade the PM to set a date for her early departure.”

Newton Dunn goes on to recall that at the weekend former CON MPs and now Times columnist, Matthew Parris, urged CON MPs to speak out in an article, we are told, that has “is being closely studied in the Commons tea room”. Parris wrote:-

” “The power of a single speech, if timed at a critical point in politics, can be incalculable.

“The time for that logjam-busting speech has come. Whether from a Remainer or a Leaver, the keynote is that this cannot go on.”

Of course the Sun’s reports have all been based on non-attributable briefing with no names being mentioned but it is the continuation of them that will be causing concern within Number 10.

In all of this the PM’s biggest strong point remains – there is no obvious successor. The betting still makes it longer than evens that she’ll go this year.

Mike Smithson


As she leaves for China TMay says she’s not a quitter and will lead party into GE2022

Wednesday, January 31st, 2018

At least this could bring things to a head

With all the talk about the number of letters going to Graham Brady demanding a confidence vote in Mrs Mays leadership she has responded by making it very clear that her intention is to see it out until the next general election.

This flies in the face of the broad understanding that existed when she was allowed to carry on after her failure in June last year to retain the Conservative majority. The whole point of calling an early election was to increase her majority in order to strengthen her mandate on Brexit.

The broad view within the parliamentary party has been in that Theresa May would stand down in 2019 following the implementation of Brexit. This has led to the widespread assumption that there would be a leadership contest in the summer of next year.

The way that Theresa May handled that GE2017 campaign making it’s very personal all about herself with very little about the party still rankles amongst Conservatives. We all remember the battle bus which had no mention of the word Conservative on it. There was what in hindsight was her disastrous decision not to participate in a TV debate with Jeremy Corbyn allowing Amber Rudd to stand in for her.

    What she is broadly saying now is that if you want me out then you will have to force me and maybe this will prove to be a gamble, like GE2017 that has got wrong.

The danger for her is that it could encourage more letters to be sent to Mr Brady. As we all know 15% of the parliamentary party, 48 MPs, have to have filed letters with the Chairman of the 1922 committee in order for a vote of confidence to take place. This could take it over the top.

One of the strengths of the TMay approach is it can be argued that the time is never right for a decisive vote of confidence and a leadership contest. There will always be a reason for postpone it.

If she gets through the next few weeks my betting will be that she’ll survive till 2022.

Mike Smithson


DefSec & ex-chief whip, Gavin Williamson, – a good bet at 7/1 for next cabinet exit?

Monday, January 29th, 2018

The PM doesn’t seem to have much luck with her favourites

After losing Nick Timothy after the election, then her close Oxford friend, Damian Green, in December it looks as though the latest of the prime minister’s favourites, Gavin Williamson, could be in trouble.

The front page Guardian story won’t make comfortable reading in Downing Street this morning.

The paper is reporting that Gavin Williamson went to the Daily Mail to avoid answering questions from Guardian and then set up the Russian threat headline in the Daily Telegraph to switch attention.

What the veracity of the report is I don’t know but it is another embarrassment for TMay at a time when she herself is under great pressure.

Williamson’s appointment to the Defence Sec job in November was highly controversial given his total lack of ministerial or defence experience and the rumblings over it continue.

It has been widely suggested that Williamson is Mrs May’s choice of preferred successor whenever she steps down or is pushed.

PaddyPower have Williamson at 7/1 for next Cabinet exit.

Mike Smithson


The fight to succeed TMay – part 127

Saturday, January 27th, 2018

Doesn’t look good for the DefSec – said to be TMay’s preferred successor

And BoJo steps up the ante

In the betting Amber Rudd moves to 3rd favourite