Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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The end of the court of Sessions?

Sunday, October 7th, 2018

Paddy Power have a market up which is one of my favourite types of market, will X be in their job or not by a certain.

There are stories that Trump will be considering a few major changes to his cabinet after the mid terms, Defense [sic] Secretary Jim Mattis is one at risk but the person most at risk I think is Attorney General.

I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November even if they don’t formally take control until January I expect impeachment investigations to be launched by the House of Representatives ergo Trump will need an Attorney General he can trust.

So I reckon the value is backing No in this option as there is plenty of evidence of Trump being hugely dissatisfied with Sessions by saying recently ‘I don’t have an attorney general, it’s very sad.’ Then adding

“[Sessions] went through the nominating process and he did very poorly. I mean, he was mixed up and confused, and people that worked with him for, you know, a long time in the Senate were not nice to him, but he was giving very confusing answers. Answers that should have been easily answered. And that was a rough time for him.”

CNN observed ‘So. Trump a) says he doesn’t have an Attorney General b) believes Sessions did “very poorly” in his confirmation hearings c) thinks Sessions was “mixed up and confused” and 4) sees the whole thing as just “very sad.”‘ This isn’t an isolated incident of Trump’s dissatisfaction with Sessions.

I expect the House’s investigation into Trump to bring out the worst in Trump particularly if it involves his family and possible future prison time for them and Trump.

The one thing we’ve learned from the Kavanaugh confirmation is that the GOP will be willing to do anything to ensure a prompt confirmation for a Trump appointee so getting a new Attorney General confirmed should be straight forward for Trump as I expect the GOP to hold the Senate with the possibility of an increased majority.

Trump’s also unhappy with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein you can see Trump instigating wholesale changes at the Department of Justice given that his Presidency maybe at risk, he will need an Attorney General he can trust and has confidence in.

TSE



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If Boris Johnson is putting the CTF band together the last time they worked together he was massively overstated in the polls

Sunday, October 7th, 2018

Don’t be seduced by massive Johnson leads. History suggests Boris isn’t as personally popular as the polls would have you believe.

The Times reported earlier on this week that

An aide to the campaigning guru Sir Lynton Crosby was seen at Boris Johnson’s home yesterday morning, hours before his conference rally. In the clearest sign yet of how closely the former foreign secretary is working with Sir Lynton’s company, Mimi Randolph, a staffer at CTF Partners, was pictured leaving his Oxfordshire home. She is understood to have helped to organise his speech in Birmingham.

Mark Fullbrook, whose surname provides the “F” initial for CTF, also had a reserved space at Mr Johnson’s packed-out rally.

Sir Lynton masterminded Mr Johnson’s two successful campaigns to be London mayor before running David Cameron’s 2015 general election campaign. But he also worked on the Tories’ disastrous general election campaign last year.

It is understandable that Boris Johnson is getting those who helped him win the London Mayoralty twice to work for him again in his aim to become the next Prime Minister but look at the chart below.

Now I can imagine the retort of the supporters of Boris is that well he won even if his lead was overstated but with the current electoral geography, where a 1% swing at the next general election can mean anything from a Tory majority to a Labour led government then accurate polling is essential. It is possible for the Tories to win most votes and seats and still lose power at the next election.

We learned at the last election that the Tories having an overrated leader produces a sub-optimal result for the Tories.

TSE



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It’s now 1/6 that the Kavanaugh nomination will go through

Thursday, October 4th, 2018

PaddyPower betting

A GOP senator who has read FBI report

A Democratic Senator who has also read it

Mike Smithson




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How the next CON leader betting market has moved since last year’s Conference

Thursday, October 4th, 2018

A Mr. Johnson still favourite but Javid very close

I love these historical charts of Betfair trades from Betdata.io and they are particularly interesting when you have events like the party conferences.

The man I’m working hard not to call just by his first name is still there in the favourite slot but the big gainers during the year have been the Home Secretary, Sajid Javid, and the BrexSec, Dominic Raab. Both got promotions since the 2017 conference.

I’ve never been fully convinced of Johnson’s chances simply because of the CON election system. Remember how Portillo was squeezed out of a place in the members’ ballot in 2001 because he was pipped by IDS for one of the two names that MPs decided should be put before the membership. Looking back the Tories would surely have performed far better with Portillo than the hapless IDS who was forced out in a confidence vote in October 2003.

That’s history and Portillo’s career is now on a different track usually a railway one.

There has been some talk of the system being changed but it is hard to see CON MPs being ready to give up their power to determine the final shortlist of two.

All is dependent on when TMay goes and I am not convinced that she’ll be out next year.

On the betting I like to feature the Betfair exchange because the prices are based on real money being risked.

Mike Smithson




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The Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination: Trump ups the ante by mocking the woman who says she was sexually assaulted

Wednesday, October 3rd, 2018

In the betting PaddyPower make it 3/10 that Brett Kavanaugh will be confirmed as Justice of the Supreme Court in 2018 and 21/10 that he won’t.

The wider political dimension is how this is going to influence voters in the midterm elections next month when the Democratic party has a realistic chance of taking the House and an outside one of taking the Senate as well.

Until a few hours ago Trump had been fairly guarded in how he referred to the woman who has made the accusations of sexual assault 35 years ago against the man who next week could be on the Supreme Court. Her statement to the Senate Judiciary Committee and Kavanaugh’ response last Thursday have been totally dominating US politics during this critical election period.

Given Trump’s personal history this is a territory where you would have thought he would have been extremely careful.

The nomination process was paused for a week last Friday to allow the FBI time to examine the allegations.

My reading is that if Kavanaugh is not confirmed that will fire up Republicans in the elections while it will be the Democrats who’ll be fired up if it goes the other way.

Mike Smithson




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Boris got a leadership betting lift from his speech but he’s now back at a 13% chance

Tuesday, October 2nd, 2018


Betdata.io

With all the focus on Johnson’s big speech at the Conservative conference it was inevitable that punters would look to his leadership chances and start risking their money. Well the chart shows the prices on the Betfair Exchange over the past 48 hours and as can be seen there was a lift when he moved up to a 16% chance but that slipped back as betting interest evaporated and now it’s at a 13% chance.

To put that into context on the weekend after last year’s general election Johnson was rated at a 30% chance of succeeding Theresa May. Of course at the time everybody was assuming an imminent changeover in the leadership and at number 10. That didn’t happen and maybe Johnston might look back at that weekend and think that he could have got the job then if he had acted which he didn’t.

In all of this Javed remains pretty constant and gives the impression of being a leadership contender who would make it to the final round of members voting.

I’m not betting till I know as a vacancy and then we can assess circumstances at the time.

Mike Smithson




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By 55% to 37% women say Kavanagh’s Supreme Court nomination should NOT be confirmed

Monday, October 1st, 2018

Men support it by 49% to 40%

A Quinnipiac poll just published finds finds that 48% of US voters think the U.S. Senate should reject Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court, with 42% saying he should be confirmed.

Those headline figures overshadow a huge gender divide with women overwhelmingly opposed and men giving Trump’s move some support.

At the moment this has all been delayed by the move last Friday to defer things for a week to allow an FBI investigation into the allegations of rape by the nominee 35% years ago.

With just 5 weeks to go until the midterm elections this is an issue that is totally dominating US politics and whichever way it goes it is likely to have an electoral impact.

In a development today the GOP senator whose move on Friday caused the delay, Jeff Flake, urged the FBI on to probe all “credible” allegations of sexual assault against the nominee. He felt dismay that Judiciary Committee hadn’t been “doing due diligence”.

PaddyPower now make it 4/9 that Kavanagh will be confirmed.

Mike Smithson




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With his corn field jape Boris seems to be trying to validate the 57% of voters who say would he “make poor leader”

Monday, October 1st, 2018

And latest from the betting markets