Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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Betting on Time’s person of the year

Wednesday, November 29th, 2017

Following Friday night’s tweet by Donald Trump I thought it’d be fun to look at the betting markets on the winner of Time’s Person Of The Year Award. I can understand why the hashtag MeToo is favourite, in 2011 ‘The Protester’ won, so groups and collectives can win.

My tip is Colin Kaepernick at 14/1, the American Football player who began the ‘taking the knee’ protests over racial injustices in America, it enraged Donald Trump a lot, which led to even more protests by players in the NFL. Colin Kaepernick was recently awarded GQ’s 2017 Citizen Of The Year so his protests has earned him awards already.

Just a bit of warning, I’ve been betting on Time’s person of the year for around a decade, and I’ve only had one winner in that time, Donald Trump who won the award last year.

TSE



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Some Royal wedding betting markets

Monday, November 27th, 2017

 

I’m going for a wet May 2018 wedding with the Obamas attending.

Paddy Power have some markets up following this morning’s announcement. I think May is the most logic date fitting around the bank holidays and fits the announcement of a spring wedding.

5/2 on it raining in May seems huge to me, and as for attendees to the wedding, many have said Prince Harry and President Obama have a bromance, so I’ll back the Obamas attending.

As for the location, I’m unsure what the protocols are for the Prince marrying a divorcee, it might rule out Westminster Abbey. When Prince Charles remarried a divorcee they were married at Windsor Guildhall instead of Windsor Castle because ‘it was discovered that the legal requirements for licensing the royal castle for civil weddings would require opening it up to other prospective couples for at least three years’ so I’m not backing Windsor Castle either.

There are other markets available but the odds are rather unattractive or designed to enrich Paddy Power.

TSE



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The timing of this leak makes me think it is all about ousting Damian Green, and ultimately Mrs May

Monday, November 27th, 2017

Timing is everything.

Sam Coates of The Times has a very intriguing story in today’s Times.

Damian Green offered to funnel money to the Democratic Unionist Party in a secret side deal, The Times can reveal.

Theresa May’s de facto deputy ­offered Conservative Party funding for a salary for a senior DUP employee after the confidence and supply agreement had been completed in the summer. The revelation has angered some Tory MPs who said that it would be an inappropriate use of party funds. One donor said they would be furious if they discovered that money had gone to a different party.

No 10 said that the arrangement had not been put into motion but did not ­deny that the offer had been made….

….The Times understands that over the summer the Northern Irish party suggested that it wanted the creation of a DUP adviser paid from government funds. This was on top of the deal between the Tories and the DUP after the June election that means that the party’s MPs keep Mrs May in office.

The special adviser proposal was turned down by Sue Gray, the government’s head of propriety and ethics, who works in Mr Green’s department….

….The Times understands that Mr Green and Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, had discussed what to do about the role once Ms Gray had turned it down. It was agreed that the Tory party would pay directly for the position.

Such an arrangement would mean that Mr Green was in effect agreeing to fund the work of a competitor to the Conservative Party, since otherwise the salary would have been funded by the DUP. The Tories continue to have an active branch in Northern Ireland even though they do not have any MPs

The interesting aspect of this story is the timing, this story has been known since the summer, but it has been leaked today, after Green attended the DUP conference this weekend and pertinently whilst he is currently under investigation for a variety of reasons. It damages Green further.

Damian Green who is Mrs May’s oldest friend in politics and has been shoring up her position since the calamity of June 8th, so if Tories wishing to topple Mrs May, forcing Damian Green’s resignation might be a prelude to that.

As someone who has been paying his subs to the Tory party since 1997 and regularly donates money to the Tory party, I’m rather annoyed my money would be used to fund another political party. I expect major donors to the party might be similarly annoyed.

Far too much effort is spent on ensuring Theresa May remains Prime Minister, and not enough effort on what is in the best interests of the party and the country.

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My 100/1 tip for next PM is setting his sights on Number 10

Sunday, November 26th, 2017

The Sunday Times report

The health secretary Jeremy Hunt has sounded out colleagues and party donors about a run for the Tory leadership when Theresa May stands down.

Senior Eurosceptics say Hunt is lining himself up as an alternative to Boris Johnson as the main Brexiteer candidate for prime minister after publicly switching his support from “remain” since the general election.

The foreign secretary’s gaffes have contributed to a view that a heavy hitter who supports Brexit will be needed to take on either Amber Rudd, the home secretary, or Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, when May steps down — which is expected towards the end of 2019.

One of May’s aides said Downing Street became suspicious of Hunt’s ambitions earlier this month when “briefings started appearing that he would make a splendiferous chancellor”.

The health secretary Jeremy Hunt has sounded out colleagues and party donors about a run for the Tory leadership when Theresa May stands down.

Senior Eurosceptics say Hunt is lining himself up as an alternative to Boris Johnson as the main Brexiteer candidate for prime minister after publicly switching his support from “remain” since the general election….

….One of May’s aides said Downing Street became suspicious of Hunt’s ambitions earlier this month when “briefings started appearing that he would make a splendiferous chancellor”.

But Eurosceptic power brokers say Hunt’s ambitions extend to No 10 as well as No 11.

Back in July it was clear Jeremy Hunt was on manoeuvres and I tipped taking the 100/1 on Hunt to be Mrs May’s successor. He’s got a lot of good things going for him. He’s proved to be a very competent Secretary of State in probably the most tricky cabinet job, despite the opprobrium regularly heaped on him. He’s also a very successful businessman, and crucially he’s switched from backing Remain to Leave since the referendum.

Switching from Remain to Leave will assuage concerns of Leavers, plus won’t taint him as being one of  Putin’s puppets. He’d also gain the support of  the Cameroon wing of  the party, as he’d espouse the social and domestic policies of David Cameron, who is after all the only Tory to win a majority in the last 25 years.

At the time of writing, William Hill and Paddy Power were offering 66/1 on Jeremy Hunt to be next PM, my advice is to take those odds, even purely as trading bet it should be profitable. Jeremy Hunt wants to be PM, it has been clear for months, and he’d do a damn sight better than Theresa May.

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With speculation that Michael Flynn is cooperating with Robert Mueller punters think Trump won’t serve a full term

Friday, November 24th, 2017

Despite the Flynn speculation I won’t resile from my position that Trump will serve a full term because the Democrats won’t be close to having the two thirds vote to successful convict a President following impeachment. Plus the Republicans will only vote to convict in sufficient numbers if Trump is caught in flagrante delicto handing over the US nuclear codes to Russia.

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PS – This video from the 2016 GOP convention featuring Michael Flynn and the crowd chanting  ‘Lock her up’ about Hillary Clinton is in no way amusing in hindsight.



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This betting strategy is guaranteed to return you a profit

Friday, November 24th, 2017

A rare opportunity for an arb.

By backing Philip Hammond to deliver the 2018 Autumn budget with Ladbrokes at 5/4 and simultaneously backing Philip Hammond not to deliver the 2018 Autumn budget at 2/1 with Paddy Power with the same stake amount, and you’re guaranteed a profit at these odds.

If only betting was always as simple as this.

Overnight the first post budget polling was released.

TSE



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Astonishingly Roy Moore remains the odds on favourite to win the Alabama Senate race

Thursday, November 23rd, 2017

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A couple of new betting specials from Ladbrokes

Wednesday, November 22nd, 2017


Looking to recoup their losses from their disastrous buzzword bingo market Ladbrokes have put up a couple of new markets.

The 6/4 on Philip Hammond looks good as budget seems to be received across the Tory party, but that includes praise from John Redwood, which makes me doubt that long term this budget will be well received, the golden rule for budgets is that budgets applauded on the day, usually unravel shortly thereafter.

Coupled with the general uncertainty about Mrs May, the odds are a bit too skinny for me, I suspect a new PM will want to have their own Chancellor in place.

The second bet I’m going to back, what struck me in recent days is the lack of full blown opprobrium aimed at Kezia Dugdale by the SNP over her appearance in ‘I’m A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here’ and not focusing on her constituents.

It is well known that her partner is an SNP MSP, Jenny Gilruth, and well love does conquer all, I wonder if a defection is on the cards, I’d stake more if the bet allowed a defection in 2018. I’m probably reading too much into these tweets from a Scottish journalist and a Tory MSP from a few days ago.

TSE