Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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BJohnson now clear betting favourite to succeed TMay

Saturday, October 14th, 2017

Peston: “No longer absurd that Boris could be PM within weeks”

The former Mayor and current foreign secretary is now clear favourite to be the next CON leader but his odds are nothing like as strong as they were in the weekend after the general election.

One of the drivers of the increased sentiment in Boris has come from a Facebook post by ITV’s Robert Peston. This is what he wrote about the Brexit divisions in the cabinet.

“..Her (TMay’s) perhaps fatal weakness is that she lacks the authority to settle this argument, such that the rest of the EU would have a clear understanding of who actually represents the UK and what we want from Brexit.

In the words of a senior member of the cabinet, it is a scandal that there has never been a cabinet discussion about what kind of access we want to the EU’s market once we leave, what kind of regulatory and supervisory regime should then be in place to ensure a level playing field for EU and UK businesses, and -don’t gasp – how much we might actually pay to the EU as the so-called divorce bill.

In the absence of a settled government position on these most basic of our Brexit demands, it is little short of a miracle that the leaked draft of a possible EU council statement actually holds out the possibility of the EU itself beginning to mull the form of possible trade and transition deals with us.

To be clear, it has been her ordinance that there should be no cabinet discussion of all this. And if the prime minister lacks the power and authority to negotiate Brexit with her own ministers – who after all are supposed to be on the same side as her – what possible chance is there of her reaching any kind of entente with 27 EU governments?

What should trouble her profoundly is that even those who just a week ago were savaging Boris for his disloyalty, or who detest his Brexit dogmatism, now say little could be worse than the status quo – and that as he seems to own a torch and a stick, they’d rather have him.

To be clear, I am not saying Boris Johnson will be PM within weeks. But I am saying that I no longer regard that as an absurd notion.

Time will tell.

Mike Smithson




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Good news for those those who took the 5/1 PB tip that Trump would not visit the UK this year

Thursday, October 12th, 2017

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Ladbrokes price Jan 29 2017

The bet looks set to be a winner

Back in January in what now seems an eternity ago the big news was the arrival of at the White House of Mr. Trump and the speculation over the timing and form of the President’s first visit to Britain.

The talk was all about a full state visit and visits to Buckingham Palace with him being taken their in one of the Royal coaches.

Then, of course, Theresa May was riding high and wasn’t the diminished figure that she’s appeared since the general election. The Commons Speaker, John Bercow, caused some controversy by announcing that Trump would not be invited to Parliament.

Such was the certainty that that the new president would visit this year that Ladbrokes were offering 5/1 on him not doing so and the talk was of this taking place in June at about the same time at what turned out to be the general election week.

    I just wonder whether there would have been a general election at all if a Trump state visit had been scheduled for June.

Then things got put back to October amidst growing concerns about protests.

The overnight news is that he’ll now be coming in 2018 for what appears to be a down-graded non-state visit with no meeting with the Queen.

All this is good news for those who took TSE’s tip on January 29th to take the Ladbrokes “no visit in 2017” 5/1.

Mike Smithson




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The evening betting wrap: Next CON leader and successor to May as PM

Monday, October 9th, 2017

Still no clear favourite in either market

Mike Smithson




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The real loser in all of this is the Tory reputation for competence

Monday, October 9th, 2017

It has long been argued by myself and others that the key characteristic that voters look to when whey make their choice is their desire for competent government. We might not like what a party is proposing but most of all we want politicians who are ready to take unpopular decisions which are right for the country.

One of the characteristics which has always been a strength of Tories has been the reputation for providing just this. The Thatcher government is a classic case. It did many things that large number of people were opposed to but it gave the impression of being competent.

The long period of Tory rule which had begun with Mrs. Thatcher’s GE1979 victory ended in 1997 because the huge divide by then over Europe allowed Blair to portray it as incompetent and that the Labour he led was able to provide a competent alternative.

Clare Foges, a Number 10 speech-writer during the Cameron era sums it up well in the Times this morning.

” The Conservative Party does not need to worry about being likeable. Its currency is not likeability but respect. For decades there has been a belief that while you might loathe the Tories, they get the job done. Yes, they could be arrogant, high-handed bastards but at least they were competent bastards. They were capable. They could envision and see through big, nation-changing projects. This is the fatal thing about the current state of the Conservative Party. The reputation for competence is gone — and with it the grudging respect that brought millions of people to vote Tory.

Looking back I think the moment Tory reputation was lost during this year’s election campaign was the Monday after the controversial manifesto launch and the U-turn by Mrs. May on the dementia tax.

My initial reaction to the proposal was that it showed a government that was willing to make highly unpopular decisions on what is one of the biggest issues of the day which other governments of all shades had been avoiding for decades. I thought it was an election winner because of the messages it sent out about competence and willingness to take tough decision. which would be unpopular with core Tory voters. Then the policy was watered down and TMay has suffered ever since.

Mike Smithson




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The more a challenge to May’s leadership looks likely the less the chances of Corbyn becoming next PM

Saturday, October 7th, 2017

TMay needs to remain until next election if the LAB leader is to become next PM

For some time now the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has been the favourite in the betting markets on who will succeed Theresa May as prime minister.

The trend is featured in the chart above and I think that punters have got this totally wrong.

The most likely situation in which Mr Corbyn becomes the next occupant of number 10 Downing Street is if Labour wins a general election. It is hard to envisage the circumstances under which he becomes next Prime Minister prior to that.

The blunt fact is that that Labour is 66 seats short of the Tories in the House of Commons and the numbers simply aren’t there for him to get the call from the Palace.

    Having called an election once before and having got it disastrously wrong it is hard to see Theresa May doing the same again in this Parliament. If she’s allowed to remain leader she’ll stay put till 2022.

The essential requirement of Corbyn succeeding May at Number 10 is for her to remain.

One thing that the past few days have scotched, though surely, is the idea that Theresa May will be able to do this. She’s going the main question being when.

Given Labour’s polling position Corbyn still has a good chance of becoming PM but not the next one. There almost certainly needs to be another CON leader in between and the danger for the red team is that the political environment could change.

Mike Smithson




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Ex-Tory chairman Shapps “leading the rebels working to oust TMay”

Friday, October 6th, 2017

Meanwhile YouGov finds the country divided over TMay staying

So the battle for the future of the Conservative Party is now on with senior figures ready to go on the record saying they are working to try to force her out.

In process terms the rebels need 15% of the parliamentary party, 48, to send letters to the chairman of the 1922 committee demanding a confidence vote on the Prime Minister. The Times report linked to above says that there are at least 30 names.

As I have noted in previous posts the process of ousting a Conservative leader is very separate from the process of electing a new one. Only after there has been a vote has no confidence or Mrs May quits voluntarily will possible contenders have to declare themselves.

    What is interesting here is that the rebels do not appear to be Boris Johnson backers but previous loyalists to the last Conservative Prime Minister to win a majority, David Cameron.

It was that majority that Mrs May lost on June 8th in the general election that she personally called three years early.

There have been separate reports that supporters of the former Mayor and now Foreign Secretary have their own list of MPs ready to demand a confidence motion.

Whether they are included in the 30 total I do not know. Last week I was given a figure of Boris backers of 38 CON MPs from what I regard as a reliable party source.

Whatever the battle for the future of the Conservative Party is now on.

Latest betting has Mrs May a 2/1 to survive the year.

Mike Smithson




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A move against TMay needs to happen in next few days if a successor is in place by Christmas

Thursday, October 5th, 2017

Lots of talk going on in Tory circles tonight over whether TMay should continue in post or whether she should be replaced.

The first senior figure to go on the record was the former cabinet minister under Cameron, Ed Vaizey. He said:-

“..“I think there will be quite a few people who will now be pretty firmly of the view that she should resign,” the former culture minister, who was sacked when May took over in 2016 after six years in government, told the BBC.

“The Tory party conference was a great opportunity to reboot the party and therefore reboot the country to give a clear sense of direction and that did not happen, and so, yes, I am concerned.”

The big issue is the timescale. If there is to be a new leader by Christmas then the process of trying to oust TMay needs to start now.

    The overwhelming driver of this is not that the PM had a bit of cough yesterday or some letters fell off a sign but that the polling suggests that Labour under Corbyn appears to be getting some traction.

As I pointed out last night there are two possible processes which happen sequentially. First Mrs. May needs to quit or be ousted. Then a leadership contest can start. This is not like it was in the final days of the Thatcher era when the process of initiating a leadership challenge was the trigger.

If Mrs. May is aware that she might be facing a confidence motion then you could envisage her standing aside on health grounds. If she wants to fight a confidence motion then that is her right.

I am hearing that moves are afoot to get the necessary 47 CON MPs to send a letter to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee requesting such a vote. This could be tight.

One of the great arguments being used by the PM’s defenders is that forcing TMay out would result in BJohnson becoming leader and PM.

My own view for what it is worth is that there will be a TMay resignation or confidence move and that the Foreign Secretary will NOT succeed Mrs. May.

Mike Smithson




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Following her Boris paternity test joke Emily Thornberry becomes favourite to succeed Corbyn

Wednesday, October 4th, 2017

She might be the one facing TMay at the next election

In the last few days there’s been a move to Emily Thornberry in the LAB leadership betting where she’s now favourite almost across the board.

This all started with the suggestion a few weeks that she had the backing of UNITE’s Len McCluskey to succeed Corbyn whenever that happens.

She then got a superb reception at last week’s Labour conference in Brighton (watch the video) particularly with her Brexit paternity joke about Boris. In a party that has never looked on female leadership contenders favourably Thornberry looks very established.

What is striking watching the clip is the totally different atmosphere that there was in Brighton compared with the Tories in Manchester.

Of course there is no vacancy but the fact that there is a capable McCluskey approved alternative in the wings puts her in a strong position. McCluskey has also indicated that Labour’s next leader should be a woman. Corbyn will be 73 in 2022 when the next general election will take place if this parliament runs its full course. My guess is that if there’s no earlier election he will have stood down before them.

Thornberry is the regular stand-in for Corbyn at PMQs and has put up some good performances. If she was leader now TMay would struggle even more at PMQs.

Mike Smithson