Archive for the 'Betting' Category


Betfair punters now make it a 66% chance that Trump will survive his first term

Friday, April 13th, 2018

After a quite dramatic week in US politics during which there has been a raid on the law firm that advises the President there has been a slight decline on the betting markets on whether Trump will serve a full first term.

The latest development with strong echoes of Watergate in the early 1970s is that Trump’s lawyer is known to have kept extensive sound recordings of those he had been in conversation with and the President’s allies are concerned that the recordings might have been taken.

Clearly there’s a worry that the Federal investigators might have something that could be highly compromising.

Those of my generation who followed the Watergate investigation in the early 70s that eventually led to the fall of Richard Nixon will recall how secret recordings made in his office became a huge point of contention over which there were big legal battles.

My view is that Trump will make it but who knows. Raiding his personal attorney is quite a development.

Mike Smithson


Despite 34% voters thinking Jeremy Corbyn personally has anti-Semitic views Boris Johnson’s approval ratings are near identical to Corbyn

Sunday, April 8th, 2018

Further proof that Johnson’s going to pull out of another Tory leadership contest?

I’m a fan of approval ratings as they are a very good pointers to general elections, as Mrs May’s alarming collapse in the closing stages of the 2017 general election confirmed.  So this morning’s debut poll by DeltaPoll caught my eye for this very reason.

For many Tories Boris Johnson is the man to win the Tories a majority in 2022 against Corbyn but if his ratings are on a par with Corbyn then his appeal will wane further. My view is that this polling is reflection of Johnson’s role in Brexit and his tenure as Foreign Secretary where his blundering gave succour to Putin.

If you take away Boris Johnson’s electoral appeal what exactly does he offer apart from buffoonery with the occasional classical history reference?

When Theresa May and Philip Hammond have substantially better ratings than Boris Johnson then Tory MPs and activists will look elsewhere especially Corbyn is now personally getting tainted with anti-Semitism as seen in the tweet above. Do they really want someone who has equivalent ratings to Corbyn?

In 2016 Boris Johnson declined to run for the Tory leadership after seeing his popularity take a hit then I suspect he’ll decline to run again when Mrs May is replaced if his ratings maintain this trajectory, bet accordingly.

You can view the full entrails of the DeltaPoll here.



Moggsy edges up to a new high in the next CON leader betting

Thursday, April 5th, 2018

For the tihrd month in succession ConHome has him as favoured next CON leader

We have not looked at this betting market for some time – who is going to be the next Conservative leader after Theresa May – and the latest ConHome survey with Rees-Mogg once again the favoured choice of members is a good peg.

You should note that this is NOT an opinion poll and cannot be compared with, say, the recent YouGov LAB members’ survey. But CONhome will point to its success with its approach at the 2005 leadership contest.

As can be seen in the chart of Betfair exchange trades the JRM phenomena matches with survey. It now looks as though he’s heading to get his own LBC show which will give him even more of a public presence.

    The only problem about being the long-term betting favourite for CON leader is that there is a history of them not making it.

Everything, of course, depends on when there is a contest which is linked to Mrs May’s chances of surviving beyond Brexit something that is looking more likely following what seems to be an assured performance over the Salisbury incident.

If she is still there by the end of 2019 then my guess is that she could hang on. And when it does happen the winner will be someone who at the moment is not getting that much attention.

Mike Smithson


Just under nine months to go for Toby Young to win his £15,000 “Boris will be CON leader by 2018” wager

Wednesday, April 4th, 2018

My money’s on Nigella Lawson, who accepted the bet, winning

Fifteen years ago Toby Young had a bet of £15,000 with Nigella Lawson that Boris Johnson would become Tory leader by 2018.

Well the days are ticking away and there are just eight months and 26 days to go for the event to happen and Young to pick up his winnings.

In 2011 Tim Montgomerie wrote about the bet on ConHome quoting an article by Young in the Spectator:-

Since Salisbury Mrs. May has looked even more secure and it is becoming harder to see a vacancy occurring.

Mike Smithson


Don’t be tempted by the Corbyn exit in 2018 bets – he’s as strong as ever within the party

Wednesday, April 4th, 2018

Normally when a leader starts to get into a bit of trouble the enterprising bookmakers begin issuing prices on how long they will survive. We saw that a lot in October after Mrs Mays rather disastrous conference speech. What happened? she sailed through riding the storm and is still there looking even more secure than ever.

    So although Corbyn has had a less than optimal month, with his response to the Salisbury incident and of course the latest antisemitism issues, I’m not rushing to put money on him going early.

We know, of course, that those who are leaving the party are hostile to Corbyn which means that the bulk of the remaining membership will be even more in his favour. While that remains he will evenutally go of his own accord at a time he wants.

His team have been pretty cack-handed on some aspects particularly on the deletion of his Facebook account which sounded just too contrived and almost an admission that there was something more serious, that hasn’t been discovered, tucked away somewhere.

Ladbrokes have it at 3/1 that he will be out this year though the latest at Betfair is about 9/2 of him not surviving.

I have no idea when he will eventually move on though given how he is perceived to have done so well at the last election in the party his loyalists will very much hope that he’s still around at the next election.

Mike Smithson


Introducing my 270/1 shot to win WH2020 – Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper

Tuesday, April 3rd, 2018

Ladbrokes have him at 16/1 for the Democratic nomination

It’s just over a year’s time we should be seeing the formal declarations of those entering the run for president in the 2020 White House race and over the ensuing 12 months we are going to hear a lot of speculation about who might put their hats into the ring.

The assumption is that Donald Trump will seek a second term and all the focus is on who will be his opponent from the Democratic party.

At the moment name recognition seems to be helping the ageing duo of Bernie Sanders (76) and ex Vice President Joe Biden (75) in the betting but once the primaries actually start then anything can happen. Just remember how the 2004 odds-on favourite for the nomination, Howard Dean, flopped as soon as the first primary votes were cast in Iowa – a result that played a big part in the foundation of PB.

    I’m not convinced there is any betting value on either Sanders or Biden.

My love is for long shot bets at this stage provided the odds are big enough to justify the risk. There are two things you can bet on with a possible contender – whether they get the nomination and whether they win the presidency.

Sometimes the gap in the betting in between these two can offer very good value for money.

One of the things I have been monitoring is the gap in the betting for the nomination and the President

My bet yesterday at 270 on Betfair was on the former mayor of Denver and current governor of Colorado John Hickenlooper. He’s no newcomer to presidential speculation and there has been talk of him running on a joint independent ticket with Republican John Kasich. Two years ago he was one of those tipped to be the Clinton V-P choice.

To give you an idea of the gap between the presidential markets and the nomination markets that Ladbrokes currently have Hickenlooper at 16/1 for the nomination.

You can still get 100+ on Betfair which still seems value.

There are several ways this bet could be profitable even if he does not make it to the White House. If he does put his hat into the ring then expect his odds to tighten sharply and during the first few primaries expect a high level of turbulence in the betting.

  • I should add that bets are NOT predictions. They are assessments of value based on the current betting odds. If you think that the betting prices on an outcome are better than the odds available then you have a value bet.
  • Mike Smithson


    Would Joe Biden beat Donald Trump? See this interesting analysis

    Monday, April 2nd, 2018

    I rather like this approach to looking at the White House race because this is a state battle as we saw in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but Trump made it because he picked up several key states by very small margins.

    Currently you can get Biden at 20/1 for the Presidency and Sanders at 12/1.

    I’m not tempted at these odds given how long you would have to wait and so much could happen in the meantime.

    Today I had what is only my third WH2020 bet at 280/1 on Betfair. I’m planing a separate post.

    Mike Smithson


    After long periods heading the “next PM” betting punters are moving away from Corbyn

    Sunday, April 1st, 2018

    The last nine months on the TMay successor Betfair market

    In the aftermath of what was seen as a shock general election result last June the Labour leader, Corbyn, edged up to become favourite in the Theresa May successor betting as PM. Now that has changed and the trend seems to be edging away from him.

    I’ve long argued that Corbyn as next PM favourite was crazy simply because the chances are that it will be another Conservative who takes over from Mrs May if she goes before the next general election.

    Currently the favourite position on Betfair is occupied by Jacob Rees-Mogg but since the election both David Davis and Boris Johnson have had their terms heading the betting.

    If there had been a CON leader change within a few months of the election then that would have been the best chance for David Davis but now he has slipped a long way behind because it is far from certain whether he would even go for the job.

    My guess is that if there is a leadership contest while there is some time to go until the next general election, due in 2022, then Boris would compete with Moggsy for the Leaver slot and perhaps the Home Secretary, Amber Rudd would fly the flag for those who backed Remain.

    To my mind the thing that has really impeded Corbyn was his initial response to the Salisbury incident. The most significant event in The Commons since Christmas was the response to the statement by the Prime Minister in early March and it will be recalled that one prominent Labour figure after another stood up in the Commons to distance themselves from the elected leader of the party.

    Interestingly the leader ratings to be carried out since Salisbury have seen Corbyn slipping behind Theresa May almost for the first time since the last election.

    Mike Smithson