Archive for the 'Brexit Party' Category


The CON-LAB polling misery continues

Monday, May 13th, 2019

New London poll finds BRX/LD/GRN rising while the big two slump

We are now getting to the stage ahead of the Euro elections next week when voters start to think about what they will do. These, as have been remarked upon many times, have historically been a strange set of elections with normal allegiances apparently going to the wind

The YouGov London poll, carried out for QMUL, is extra interesting because, clearly, London is the most remain part of the UK. Even so Farage’s Brexit party is doing well and appears to be eating into both the Conservatives and Labour shares.

The Lib Dem numbers look very encouraging for Vince Cable in what will be his final set of elections as LD party leader. I would expect over the next few days that they will be putting a big squeeze on the other anti-brexit parties supporters as well as remain backers who are CON and LAB. This is an area where the party has good expertise. A particular target will be the Green vote.

I’ve had a couple of Euro bets this lunchtime with Ladbrokes. One, at 7/2 is that the Lib Dems will finish up with the most number of votes in the London. The other at 2/1 is that the turnout will be in the 30% to 40% range.

A big unknown at the moment it’s whether or not the government can turn things around at Westminster and get some sort of agreement from MPs. The problem for strong leavers is that their opposition to Theresa May’s deal may put in jeopardy the whole idea of leaving the EU. What we’re witnessing is a gigantic game of chicken.

Mike Smithson


Given The Brexit party looks almost a certainty for the Euros which party will come second?

Wednesday, May 8th, 2019

It is hard to recall now but a couple of months ago when the first betting markets were opened  on what then seemed a only possible set of Euro elections in the UK LAB was made the odds-on favourites with the Brexit party on 4/1. Well that has all changed and it is hard to see anything other than Farage’s party heading for a notable victory on May 23rd.

But which party will be in second place? On the face of it that should be Labour yet given its disappointing performance last Thursday in the locals, when everybody was predicting that it was going to win seats when it lost them, there has to be a level of doubt. All is not well at Team Corbyn.

What about the Tories? They have slipped a very long way in the Euros polling but let’s remember 5 years ago when they found themselves 20 points behind Farage’s UKIP at one stage only to finish 3.6% adrift. Could there be a recovery in the blue team’s fortunes? I do think that the Brexit party is being overstated a touch at the moment and the Tores understated but not enough to put the blues in the runner-up position.

What about the newcomers the ChangeUK of which there were so many hopes only 10 weeks ago. It has had some teething troubles over it logo and name and has not quite set the world ablaze in the way that it hoped. Surely this should be the moment for the other new force in British politics as well as the Brexit Party? Maybe not.

That leaves the Lib Dems who did substantially better than anyone had predicted last Thursday and are on something of a roll. They might just have hopes of making second place if they can establish themselves as the main choice amongst that voting segment  that wants want to impede Farage. Intriguingly their early literature is making a point of  describing Labour as pro-Brexit which is accurate. Second place though might be going too far.

I’m expecting that we might see a betting market like this in the next few days and if so I’d be quite tempted by the Lib Dems at suitable odds. Labour though must be favourites.

Mike Smithson



If there was a betting market on the first Tory MP defecting to the Brexit Party my money would be on Steve Baker

Sunday, April 28th, 2019

In today’s Sun on Sunday reports

Tory MPs such as Lucy Allan, the MP for Telford, have openly tweeted encouragement for the Brexit Party, and dozens of others say privately they will vote for Farage.

Some have discussed defecting.

One prominent Brexiteer said: “Maybe we should all just defect to the Brexit Party. Can you imagine the chaos.”

It was sent to members of Jacob Rees-Mogg’s European Research Group. A source close to Farage confirmed: “Nigel is very smug at the moment and is 100 per cent sure that there is at least one high-profile defection in the pipeline with others likely to follow.”

Farage is also promising the 28 Tory MPs who remain opposed to May’s Brexit deal — a group known as the “Spartans” — that the Brexit Party will not contest their seats at the next election.

In 2014, Farage successfully persuaded two Conservative MPs, Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless, to defect to Ukip.

If Shadsy does put a market on the first Tory MP defecting to the Brexit party I’d be looking to back Steve Baker.

At the start of the month Steve Baker publicly spoke about voting against the government in a vote of no confidence.

As the Spectator noted

In response, [Baker] stressed that ‘At this point I can foresee no circumstances, while as a Conservative MP, I vote against the government in a confidence motion.’

But then went on to add:

‘But we are approaching the point where the stakes are now so very high and so transcend party politics and what this country is about, and the fundamental British value that political power rests on consent, that I think these things are coming on to the table.’

To me if you’re willing to say that publicly then you’ve contemplated leaving the Tory party and for the Spartan wing of the ERG there’s only one party to defect to, that’s Farage’s new party. Gerard Batten’s turning UKIP into the political wing of the EDL has ensured there shouldn’t be any Tory MPs defecting to UKIP.

Now there’s the Carswell/Reckless precedent that when you betray the Tory party you trigger a by election but there is an easy get out for any future defectors. Given the the Parliamentary arithmetic and Mrs May’s attempts to pass her deal every vote is crucial it would be reckless for the Spartans to be out of Parliament for around two months fighting by elections.

There’s quite a few Leavers who would be delighted to see the Spartans leave the Tory party, the defections to the Brexit party would increase the average IQ of both parties.