Archive for the 'BREXIT' Category

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The demographics of Brexit – how things are projected to change

Thursday, April 5th, 2018



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YouGov finds that significant numbers of voters now believe there was cheating at the Brexit referendum

Tuesday, April 3rd, 2018

The perception could be highly dangerous as we move forward

This is the first time, as far as I can recall, that this line of questioning has been put and the results have to be looked at in the context of all the news that we have had in the past few weeks.

I was quite shocked by the figures which are higher than I thought when I just looked at the questions.

Full details from the polling can be found here

Mike Smithson




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Get ready for the final Brexit battle: the Electoral Commission’s probe on Vote Leave’s spending

Saturday, March 31st, 2018

Mike Smithson




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A year to go until Brexit day and punters think there’s a 57% chance of the UK leaving the EU on time

Thursday, March 29th, 2018


Betdata.io

The chart shows the movement on the Betfair brexit betting market since March 29th last year when article 50 was invoked. As can be seen there has been quite a change particularly in the past few weeks and now the money is going on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th 2019.

This is all based on the Betfair betting exchange where different punters set the odds and not the bookmaker. For an exchange brings together those who want to bet on something happening and those who want to accept the bet or in betting parlance “lay” it.

This is not a market I have gone into because I think it’s too hard really to call even at this stage though I do agree with the current odds that it is probably a better than evens chance that Brexit will happen.

But an awful lot can happen in the meantime and the government has many challenges in the coming months getting its legislation through. The person who could be most influential is Labour’s Keir Starmer who is working on ensuring that it is MPs and not the executive that decides.

Mike Smithson




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A year to go till Brexit and the latest YouGov tracker has Britain as divided as ever

Thursday, March 29th, 2018



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So far the questions over the Leave campaign funding haven’t impacted on the betting

Monday, March 26th, 2018

Punters think there’s a 57% chance that UK will leave EU a year on Thursday

The big Brexit development over the weekend have been the revelations about the Leave campaign funding and whether the law was followed. Those pushing this forward are clearly hoping that this could impede the Brexit process and de-legitimise the Referendum outcome.

So far punters are not impressed and the Betfair exchange currently rates the chances of UK leaving the EU on March 29th of next year at a 57% chance.

As the chart above shows it is only in recent weeks that the market has moved from odds-on Brexit not happening a year on and Brexit actually happening.

My initial instinct was to think that the weekend coverage would undermine confidence that all would go to plan. So far it hasn’t but maybe it could as other developments take place.

The experience is that when this market books it does so fast.

Mike Smithson




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New Ipsos-MORI polling finds voters have become more positive about immigration since Referendum

Monday, March 26th, 2018

But most want numbers reduced

Mike Smithson




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The danger for Leavers is if tonight’s developments provide a peg to de-legitimise the Referendum outcome

Saturday, March 24th, 2018

Ever since June 23rd 2016 the main reason for going forward with Brexit is that, based on the referendum result, it is demonstrably the will of the people. There’s a strong argument to say it would be undemocratic not to go forward.

What tonight’s coverage on Channel 4 news and in some of the papers might do is cast doubts on the legitimacy of the vote itself. In the UK we operate strict rules on expenditure on elections and, if it can be shown that the rules were broken then who knows where this might lead?

The referendum outcome was tight and it would have only required a swing of 1.9% for Remain to have been the winner.

Vote Leave is said to have sent a staggering 1.5 billion Facebook messages to 7m voters in the closing stages of the campaign. If that is what the disputed funding helped to generate then these developments could have potency.

Whatever this is just going to widen the gulf in opinion just as things appeared to be settled.

Mike Smithson