Archive for the 'By elections' Category

h1

UKIP’s woes continue losing both by-elections they were defending on big swings to LAB

Friday, August 4th, 2017

Meanwhile LAB gains seat from CON, and CON gains one from LAB

Loughborough, Shelthorpe on Charnwood (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 595 (45% +5% on last time), Conservative 591 (45%, unchanged on last time), Liberal Democrat 93 (7%, no candidate last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 29 (2%, no candidate last time) No Green Party candidate this time (-15%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 4 (0%) on a swing from Con to Lab of 2.5%

St. Margaret’s with St. Nicholas on King’s Lynn and West Norfolk (Lab defence)
Result: Conservative 253 (36% -7% on last time), Labour 210 (30% -3% on last time), Liberal Democrat 173 (25%, no candidate last time), Green Party 63 (9% -15% on last time)
Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 43 (6%) on a swing of 2% from Lab to Con

Penshurst, Fordscombe and Chiddingstone on Sevenoaks (Con defence)
Result: Conservative 438 (59% +6% on last time), Liberal Democrat 253 (34% unchanged on last time), Labour 54 (7%, no candidate last time) No Green Party candidate this time (-13%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 185 (25%) on a swing of 3% from Lib Dem to Con

Milton, Regis on Swale (UKIP defence)
Result: Labour 573 (54% +25% on last time), Conservative 255 (24% -10% on last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 151 (14% -15% on last time), Liberal Democrat 86 (8% -1% on last time)
Labour GAIN from United Kingdom Independence Party with a majority of 318 (30%) on a swing of 17.5% from Con to Lab (20% from UKIP to Lab)

Margate Central on Thanet (UKIP defence)
Result: Labour 454 (58% +29% on last time), Conservative 190 (24% +2% on last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 52 (7% -25% on last time), Liberal Democrat 33 (4%, no candidate last time) Independent 24 (3% unchanged on last time), Green Party 23 (3% -9% on last time), Independent 13 (2%, unchanged on last time)
Labour GAIN from United Kingdom Independence Party with a majority of 264 (34%) on a swing of 13.5% from Con to Lab (27% from UKIP to Lab)

Marine on Worthing (Con defence)
Result: Labour 1,032 (47% +27% on last time), Conservative 846 (39% -6% on last time), Liberal Democrat 246 (11% +1% on last time), Green Party 55 (3% -6% on last time) No UKIP candidate this time (-16%)
Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 186 (8%) on a swing of 16.5% from Con to Lab

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



h1

Latest by-election results and summary for July

Friday, July 28th, 2017

July 27th Local By-Election Summary
Fallowfield on Manchester (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 861 (77% +15% on last time), Green Party 105 (9% -13% on last time), Liberal Democrat 82 (7% +3% on last time), Conservative 72 (6% -4% on last time)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 756 (68%) on a swing of 14% from Green to Labour

Blandford Central on North Dorset (Ind defence)
Result: Conservative 310 (37% +17% on last time), Labour 307 (36% +25% on last time), Liberal Democrat 229 (27% unchanged on last time) No Green Party candidate (-12%), No Independent candidate (-30%)
Conservative GAIN from Independent with a majority of 3 on a swing of 4% from Conservative to Labour (notional swing 23.5% from Independent to Conservative)

Scotter and Blyton on West Lindsey (Con defence)
Result: Conservative 694 (44% +9% on last time), Liberal Democrat 555 (35% +9% on last time), Labour 230 (15% -1% on last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 100 (6%, no candidate last time) No Independent candidate (-23%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 139 (9%) on no swing between Conservative and Liberal Democrat

July 2017 Monthly Summary
Labour 8,607 votes (37.69% +8.95% on last time) winning 8 seats (+2 seats on last time)
Conservatives 7,494 votes (32.82% +4.48% on last time) winning 8 seats (+1 seat on last time)
Liberal Democrats 3,542 votes (15.51% +2.67% on last time) winning 1 seat (-2 seats on last time)
Independent candidates 1,594 votes (6.98% -2.18% on last time) winning 2 seats (-1 seat on last time
Scottish National Party 895 votes (3.92% +2.73% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Green Party 284 votes (1.24% -2.19% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Local Independent candidates 196 votes (0.86% -2.65% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
United Kingdom Independence Party 143 votes (0.63% -12.00% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Other Parties 80 votes (0.35% +0.20% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Labour lead of 1,113 (4.87%) on a swing of 2.24% from Conservative to Labour

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



h1

Good night for LAB, bad one for the LDs in this week’s local by-elections

Friday, July 21st, 2017

Alston Moor on Eden (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Labour 407 (56%, no candidate last time), Conservative 253 (35% -10% on last time), Independent 57 (8%, no candidate last time), Green Party 13 (2%, no candidate last time) No Liberal Democrat candidate (-55%)
Labour GAIN from Liberal Democrat with a majority of 154 (21%) on a notional swing of 33% from Conservative to Labour

Billingham North on Stockton on Tees (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 719 (40% +5% on last time), Conservative 687 (39% +19% on last time), Local Independent 196 (11% -13% on last time), Liberal Democrat 95 (5%, no candidate last time), Others 80 (5%, no candidates last time) No UKIP candidate (-21%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 32 (1%) on a swing of 7% from Labour to Conservative

St. Michael’s on Knowsley (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 716 (87% +13% on last time), Liberal Democrat 58 (7%, no candidate last time), Green Party 53 (6%, no candidate last time) No Conservative candidate (-8%), No UKIP candidate (-17%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 658 (80%) on a notional swing of 3% from Liberal Democrat to Labour

Leek East on Staffordshire, Moorlands (Con defence)
Result: Labour 505 (45% +26% on last time), Conservative 325 (29% +1% on last time), Independent 219 (20%, no candidate last time), Liberal Democrat 74 (7% +1% on last time) No Local Independent candidate (-21%)
Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 180 (16%) on a swing of 12.5% from Conservative to Labour

Ketton on Rutland (Con defence)
Result: Conservative 459 (69% +13% on last time), Liberal Democrat 208 (31% +4% on last time) No UKIP candidate (-17%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 251 (38%) on a swing of 4.5% from Liberal Democrat to Conservative

Wissendine on Rutland (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Independent 258 (66%, no candidate last time), Conservative 102 (26% -1% on last time), Liberal Democrat 32 (8% -57% on last time) No UKIP candidate (-8%)
Independent GAIN from Liberal Democrat with a majority of 156 (40%) on a notional swing of 33.5% from Conservative to Independent

St. Helier on Merton (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 1,508 (75% +16% on last time), Conservative 318 (16% +1% on last time), Liberal Democrat 98 (5%, -1% on last time), Green Party 61 (3%, no candidate last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 15 (1% -19% on last time)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 1,190 (59%) on a swing of 7.5% from Conservative to Labour

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



h1

Tonight’s council by elections round up

Thursday, July 13th, 2017

TSE



h1

If there were a Newton Abbot by election this year, the Tories are the 1/25 favourites

Tuesday, July 11th, 2017

Tony Blair in his pomp would have probably taken a seat like this in a by election but would Corbyn?

Paddy Power have a market up on a theoretical Newton Abbot by election were Ann Marie Morris resign following her use of the n word. I’m not playing this market, I suspect all stakes will become an interest free loan to Paddy Power for nearly six month and I’ve got better things to do with my money.

But given Mrs May’s dire ratings, and the Tories generally behind Labour in the polls it is interesting that the Tories are such overwhelming favourites. It would take a 16.7% Con to Lab swing for Labour to gain the seat, in the 1992-1997 Parliament Tony Blair’s Labour party gained the seats of Dudley West and South East Staffordshire in by elections on swings of 29.1% and 22.1% respectively, so gaining seats like Newton Abbot shouldn’t be out of the range of Labour.

TSE



h1

Local By-Election Review : June 2017 (post General Election)

Friday, June 30th, 2017

Dawdon on Durham (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 693 (52% +6% on May 2017), Independent 633 (48%, no candidate in May 2017)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 60 (4%)

Hedge End and Grange Park on Eastleigh (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Liberal Democrat 668 (56% +14% on last time), Conservative 316 (27% +4% on last time), Labour 144 (12% +7% on last time), Green Party 41 (3%, no candidate last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 14 (1% -29% on last time)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 352 (29%) on a swing of 5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

William Morris on Waltham Forest (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 1,923 (68% +11% on 2014), Green Party 524 (19% +2% on 2014), Conservative 365 (13% +6% on 2014)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 1,399 (49%) on a swing of 4.5% from Green to Labour

Derby on West Lancashire (Con defence)
Result: Our West Lancashire 705 (42%, no candidate last time), Labour 596 (36% +1% on last time), Conservative 362 (22% -28% on last time)
Our West Lancashire GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 109 (6%) on a notional swing of 20.5% from Labour to Our West Lancashire (Actual notional swing: 35% from Con to OWL)

June 2017 Monthly Summary (post General Election)
Labour 7,114 votes (39% +10% on last time) winning 3 seats (unchanged on last time)
Conservatives 3,683 votes (20% -7% on last time) winning 4 seats (unchanged on last time)
Green Party 3,154 votes (17% +6% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Liberal Democrats 1,974 votes (11% -3% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time)
Independent Candidates 1,454 votes (8% +6% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 seat on last time)
Local Independents 767 votes (4% -4% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 seat on last time)
Plaid Cymru 101 votes (1% +1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
United Kingdom Independence Party 14 votes (0% -7% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Other Parties 2 votes (0% -1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Labour lead of 3,431 votes (19%) on a swing of 8.5% from Conservative to Labour

Compiled By Harry Hayfield



h1

If LAB is pinning its hopes on by-elections in CON held seats then history is not on its side

Friday, June 30th, 2017

There’s been just one by-election in past 16 years caused by death/illness of CON incumbent

There is a lot of hope on the Labour side that the small CON working majority with the DUP could be cut as result of a by-election loss.

The only problem with this is that historically there have been very few by-elections caused by the illness or death of the CON incumbent. Since 2001 there has been just one compare with 15 Labour health/death ones. Note that I have excluded Jo Cox.

Most by elections in Tory seats have been caused by the voluntary resignation of the Sitting MP such as David Cameron in 2016 or the weird resignation by David Davis in the 2005-2010 Parliament when he quit and stood again to make a point the purpose of which has long since been forgotten.

In 2014, of course, we had two resignations in CON seats caused by the defections of Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless to UKIP.

Last year, Zac Goldsmith, quit his Richmond Park seat seat and the party to fight a by-election over LHR3. He regained it on June 8th by 45 votes a margin somewhat down on the 23k of GE2015.

In the current parliamentary situation the TMay’s Tories are going to do everything in their power to stop voluntarily by elections.

So we could experience something like the 2001 to 2005 Parliament when the Tories did not have to defend a single seat.

Mike Smithson




h1

Tonight’s council by-elections

Thursday, June 29th, 2017

TSE