Archive for the 'By elections' Category

h1

Local By-Election Review March 2017

Friday, March 24th, 2017

Higher Croft on Blackburn with Darwen (Lab defence, death of sitting member)
Result: Labour 446 (58% +12%), United Kingdom Independence Party 190 (25% -8%), Conservative 133 (17% -4%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 256 (33%) on a swing of 10% from UKIP to Lab
However, late yesterday afternoon it was discovered that the Labour candidate should not have been nominated as he was employed by an organisation that Blackburn with Darwen council have a material interest in, therefore the election was declared null and void

Leominster South on Herefordshire (Ind defence, death of sitting member)
Result: Green Party 318 (41% +10%), It’s Our County 143 (18%, no candidate at last election), Conservative 139 (18% -9%), Independent 116 (15% -28%), Liberal Democrat 64 (8%, no candidate at last election)
Green GAIN from Independent with a majority of 175 (23%) on a notional swing of 4% from Green to It’s Our County (actual swing 10.5% from Con to Green)

Dunster and Timberscombe on West Somerset (Con defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result: Liberal Democrat 174 (50%, no candidate at last election), Conservative 115 (33% -27%), Green Party 38 (11% -29%), Labour 23 (7%, no candidate at last election)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 59 (17%) on a notional swing of 38.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat (actual swing 1% from Green to Con)

Monthly Summary: March 2017
Conservatives 8,011 votes (36% -1% on last time) winning 11 seats (+2 on last time)
Labour 6,214 votes (28% -2% on last time) winning 3 seats (-3 on last time)
Liberal Democrats 3,222 votes (15% +8% on last time) winning 3 seats (+2 on last time)
United Kingdom Independence Party 2,098 votes (10% -1% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 on last time)
Green Party 1,173 votes (5% -2% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 on last time)
Independents 1,128 votes (5% -2% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 on last time)
Other Parties 143 votes (1% +1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Conservative lead of 1,797 votes (8%) on a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con

GAINS
Conservatives GAIN Hutton on Redcar and Cleveland from Lab
Conservatives GAIN Kersal on Salford from Lab
Conservatives GAIN Waltham Cross on Broxbourne from Lab
Conservatives GAIN Derwent on the City of Derby from UKIP
Liberal Democrats GAIN Hailey, Minister Lovell and Leafield on West Oxfordshire from Con
Green Party GAIN Leominster South on Herefordshire from Ind
Liberal Democrats GAIN Dunster and Timberscombe on West Somerset from Con



h1

Local By-Election Preview : March 23rd 2017

Thursday, March 23rd, 2017

Yesterday, Westminster was attacked. If the aim was to stop democracy, then it clearly failed.

Higher Croft on Blackburn with Darwen (Lab defence, death of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 45, Conservatives 16, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour majority of 26)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 1,283 (46%), United Kingdom Independence Party 927 (33%), Conservative 570 (21%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 28,522 (44%) LEAVE 36,799 (56%) on a turnout of 65%
Candidates duly nominated: Ian Grimshaw (UKIP), Adam Holden (Lab), Maureen McGarvey (Con)
Weather at close of polls: Clear, 5°C
Estimate: Labour HOLD (Lab 50%, Con 27%, UKIP 21%)

Leominster South on Herefordshire (Ind defence, death of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 29, It’s Our County 12, Independents 8, Green Party 2, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 5)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Independent 686 (43%), Green Party 492 (31%), Conservative 425 (27%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 44,148 (41%) LEAVE 64,122 (59%) on a turnout of 78%
Candidates duly nominated: Connor Egan (Con), Mark Latimer (Non Party Independent), Trish Marsh (Green), Jon Stannard (It’s Our County), Clive Thomas (Lib Dem)
Weather at close of polls: Clear, 5°C
Estimate: Too close to call (NPI 26%, Con 25%, It’s Our County 19%, Lib Dem 18%, Green 12%)

Dunster and Timberscombe on West Somerset (Con defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 21, Independents 3, United Kingdom Independence Party 3, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 14)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 424 (60%), Green Party 288 (40%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 8,566 (39%) LEAVE 13,168 (61%) on a turnout of 79%
Candidates duly nominated: Lucy McQuillan (Green), Andy Parbrook (Con), Peter Pilkington (Lib Dem), Maureen Smith (Lab)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy but dry, 7°C
Estimate: Conservative HOLD (Con 48%, Lib Dem 29%, Green 17%, Lab 6%)

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



h1

The French Presidency, Manchester Gorton & how long will Trump last – latest betting market round-up

Thursday, March 23rd, 2017

Macron remains the strong odds-on favourite in France

LAB eases a touch in Gorton but still very strong favourite

Punters think Trump’s got a 50% chance of NOT completing first term

Mike Smithson




h1

Local By-Election Results : March 16th 2017

Friday, March 17th, 2017

Warbreck on Blackpool (Con defence, death of sitting member)
Result: Conservative 728 (55% +18%), Labour 468 (35% +6%), UKIP 75 (6% -13%), Liberal Democrat 57 (4% -3%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 260 (20%) on a swing of 6% from Labour to Conservative

Saham Toney on Breckland (Con defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result: Conservative 335 (48% -3%), Liberal Democrat 105 (15%, no candidate at last election), Independent 104 (15%, no candidate at last election), UKIP 80 (11% -21%), Labour 72 (10%, no candidate at last election)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 230 (33%) on a notional swing of 9% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

South Heaton on Newcastle upon Tyne (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result: Labour 768 (47% -5%), Green Party 444 (27% +2%), Liberal Democrat 260 (16% +10%), UKIP 88 (5% -5%), Conservative 80 (5% unchanged)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 324 (20%) on a swing of 3.5% from Labour to Green

Walton-le-Dale East on South Ribble (Ind defence, elected as Con)
Result: Conservative 359 (49% -5%), Labour 262 (36% -10%), Liberal Democrat 106 (15%, no candidate at last election)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 97 (13%) on a swing of 2.5% from Labour to Conservative

Liberal Democrat swings:
Warbreck: 10.5% from Liberal Democrat to Conservative
Saham Toney: As listed
South Heaton: 7.5% from Labour to Liberal Democrat
Walton-le-Dale East: 10% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat (notional)



h1

Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview : Three CON defences and a LAB one

Thursday, March 16th, 2017

Warbreck on Blackpool (Con defence, death of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 29, Conservatives 13 (Labour majority of 16)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,237, 1,197 (37%)
Labour 962, 876 (29%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 633 (19%)
Green Party 250 (8%)
Liberal Democrat 237 (7%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 21,781 (33%) LEAVE 45,146 (67%) on a turnout of 65%
Candidates duly nominated: Kevan Benfold (Lib Dem), Walter Cairns (UKIP), Michele Scott (Con), Ian Treasure (Lab)
Weather at the close of polls: Clear, 6°C
Estimate: Conservative HOLD (Con 36%, Lab 28%, Lib Dem 25%, UKIP 9%, Green 1%)

Saham Toney on Breckland (Con defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 29, Conservatives 13 (Labour majority of 16)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,194, 920 (51%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 743, 535 (32%)
Green Party 411 (18%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 26,313 (36%) LEAVE 47,235 (64%) on a turnout of 74%
Candidates duly nominated: Theresa Hewett (Con), Joe Sisto (Lab), Andrew Thorpe (Lib Dem), Pat Warwick (Ind), Dave Williams (UKIP)
Weather at the close of polls: Light Rain, 9°C
Estimate: Conservative HOLD (Con 45%, Lib Dem 18%, Ind 16%, UKIP 13%, Lab 8%)

South Heaton on Newcastle upon Tyne (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 55, Liberal Democrats 20, Independents 3 (Labour majority of 32)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Labour 1,095 (52%), Green Party 519 (25%), United Kingdom Independence Party 209 (10%), Liberal Democrat 131 (6%), Conservative 99 (5%), Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 45 (2%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 65,405 (51%) LEAVE 63,598 (49%) on a turnout of 68%
Candidates duly nominated: Christopher Boyle (Lib Dem), Andrew Gray (Green), Chris Murray (Con), Clare Penny-Evans (Lab), Tony Sanderson (UKIP)
Weather at the close of polls: Clear, 4°C
Estimate: Labour HOLD (Lab 54%, Lib Dem 18%, Con 13%, Green 9%, UKIP 6%)

Walton-le-Dale East on South Ribble (Ind defence, elected as Con)
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 29, Conservatives 13 (Labour majority of 16)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,123, 950 (54%)
Labour 937, 906 (46%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 26,406 (41%) LEAVE 37,318 (59%) on a turnout of 75%
Candidates duly nominated: Carol Ann Chisholm (Con), Alison Hesketh-Holt (Lib Dem), Alex Watson (Lab)
Weather at the close of polls: Clear, 5°C
Estimate: Too close to call (Con 42%, Lab 37%, Lib Dem 21%)

Compiled by Harry Hayfield

Mike Smithson




h1

The Tory MP for Thanet South and his agent have been questioned under caution over their election expenses

Tuesday, March 14th, 2017

The Telegraph are reporting that.

Conservative MP Craig Mackinlay was questioned by Police under caution last week over his election expenses, the Telegraph can reveal.

The South Thanet MP reportedly spent six hours being interviewed by officers over alleged overspending in the 2015 election campaign in which he beat Nigel Farage and Al Murray, the Pub Landlord.

Kent Police are expected to meet with the Crown Prosecution Service next week to discuss a possible prosecution, it is understood, after the force concluded a series of interviews with Conservative staff and politicians about the alleged overspend.

Both Mr McKinlay and his agent Nathan Gray have denied any wrongdoing.

Over the weekend former Tory Party Co-Chairman Grant Shapps dropped Nick Timothy, Mrs May’s Joint Chief of Staff, further into with this investigation with this intervention. (A non pay-walled version is available here.)

I expect Grant Shapps will have enraged Mrs May with this intervention, whilst people shouldn’t assume because someone has been questioned under caution that either charges or a conviction will inevitably follow, however this does present a huge problem for Mrs May, even before we consider the size of her majority. Sometimes in politics perceptions matter more than the facts, and if one of her top aides embroiled in this scandal, it will impact on the running of her government. A few weeks ago The Times ran a story that said “One source close to No 10 said the [election expenses] subject was “occupying as much as 20 per cent of non-governing head space.””

But more MPs are condemning the handling of the investigations by the party.

Does she really have the ability to conduct Brexit negotiations whilst Nicola Sturgeon is pushing for a second independence referendum and fighting by elections and with Nigel Farage looking to break his duck in becoming an MP, only Churchill probably had such a complicated in-tray upon becoming Prime Minister.

TSE



h1

George Galloway could put himself forward for the Manchester Gorton by-election

Saturday, March 11th, 2017

If he runs that could damage Labour

Back in 2012 my best political bet was on George Galloway in the Bradford West by-election. I got on him at 33/1 and, of course, he went on to take the seat in a surprise Victory. My view then was that he could cause surprises and was worth it at the price.

Now, as in the Guardian report linked to above, he is considering putting his name forward in a seat where at the 2911 census 29% of resident described their religion as “Muslim”; 11th highest for constituencies in England and Wales.

I’m not totally convinced that GG is planning a run. I think this is more a way of trying to influence the LAB selection so the party chooses a Muslim candidate whom Galloway approves of.

If Galloway stands against an official LAB candidate than that could make the defence of Gorton more difficult for the red team. The most likely beneficiaries would be the Lib Dems who have a good historical record there even though they did badly at the last general election.

I’ve laid labour on Betfair at a 1.13. So effectively I’ve got 8/1 on LAB not retaining the seat.

Mike Smithson




h1

The first electoral test following the budget – tonight’s local by-elections

Thursday, March 9th, 2017

The by-elections held today are the first electoral test of the Budget announced yesterday. Here, for reference, is what happened after the 2016 Budget:

Budget Local By-Elections 2016: March 17th 2016
Lincolnshire Independents GAIN Ashby de la Launde and Cranwell on North Kesteven from Conservative on a 44% swing from Conservative to Lincolnshire Independents
Liberal Democrat GAIN Aylsham on Broadland from Conservative on a 5.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
Conservative HOLD Hutton on Redcar and Cleveland on a 9.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Budget Local By-Elections 2017: March 9th 2017
Waltham Cross on Broxburne (Lab defence, death of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 26, Labour 3, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 22)
Result of ward at last election (2016): Labour 1,205 (56%), Conservative 965 (44%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 17,166 (34%) LEAVE 33,706 (66%) on a turnout of 74%
Candidates duly nominated: Steve Coster (UKIP), Christian Durugo (Lab), Patsy Spears (Con), Brendan Wyer (Lib Dem)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy but dry, 8°C
Estimate: Too close to call (Lab 48%, Con 38%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 5%)

Derwent on Derby (UKIP defence, death of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 26, Conservatives 17, Liberal Democrats 5, United Kingdom Independence Party 3 (Labour majority of 1)
Result of ward at last election (2014): United Kingdom Independence Party 884 (32%), Labour 847 (31%), Liberal Democrat 667 (25%), Conservative 245 (9%), British National Party 84 (3%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 51,612 (43%) LEAVE 69,043 (57%) on a turnout of 70%
Candidates duly nominated: Tony Crawley (UKIP), Simon Ferringno (Lib Dem), Nadine Peatfield (Lab), Steve Willoughby (Con)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy but dry, 2°C
Estimate: Too close to call, UKIP loss (Lib Dem 36%, Lab 29%, UKIP 19%, Con 16%)

Hertford Castle on East Hertfordshire (Con defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 50 (Conservative one party state)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 2,349, 2,325, 2,087 (41%)
Independent 1,243 (22%)
Labour 1,151, 1,139, 992 (20%)
Green Party 1,016 (18%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 42,372 (49.6%) LEAVE 42,994 (50.4%) on a turnout of 80%
Candidates duly nominated: Veronica Fraser (Lab), Linda Radford (Con), Mike Shaw (UKIP), Tony Tarrega (Green), Freya Waterhouse (Lib Dem)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy but dry, 7°C
Estimate: Too close to call (Con 37%, Lib Dem 30%, Lab 18%, UKIP 6%, Green 9%)

Roxbourne on Harrow (Lab defence, death of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 34, Conservatives 26, Independents 2, Liberal Democrat 1 (Labour majority of 5)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,921, 1,802, 1,689 (49%)
Conservatives 862, 743, 640 (22%)
Independent 778, 540, 498 (20%)
Liberal Democrats 353, 278 (9%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 64,042 (55%) LEAVE 53,183 (45%) on a turnout of 72%
Candidates duly nominated: Marshel Amutharsan (Lib Dem), Herbert Crossman (UKIP), Maxine Henson (Lab), Annabel Singh (Con)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy but dry, 8°C
Estimate: Lab HOLD (Lab 54%, Lib Dem 34%, Con 12%, UKIP 1%)

Exton on Rutland (Con defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 16, Independents 7, Liberal Democrats 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 6)
Result of ward at last election (2015) : Conservative 449 (53%), Liberal Democrat 162 (19%), United Kingdom Independence Party 125 (15%), Independent 111 (13%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 11,353 (49.4%) LEAVE 11,613 (50.6%) on a turnout of 78%
Candidates duly nominated: Claire Banks (UKIP), Joanna Burrows (Lib Dem), June Fox (Con)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy but dry, 5°C
Estimate: Too close to call (Lib Dem 47%, Con 46%, UKIP 7%)

Red Horse on Stratford upon Avon (Con defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 31, Liberal Democrats 3, Labour 1, Stratford First 1 (Conservative majority of 26)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 1,317 (62%), United Kingdom Independence Party 320 (15%), Labour 273 (13%), Liberal Democrat 202 (10%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 38,341 (48%), LEAVE 40,817 (52%) on a turnout of 81%
Candidates duly nominated: John Fielding (Con), Edward Fila (UKIP), Pat Hotson (Green), Philip Vial (Lib Dem)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy but dry, 6°C
Estimate: Conservative HOLD (Con 51%, Lib Dem 33%, Green 11%, UKIP 5%)

Hailey, Minister Lovell and Leafield on West Oxfordshire (Con defence, death of sitting member)
Result of last election (2016): Conservatives 41, Labour 4, Liberal Democrats 4 (Conservative majority of 33)
Result of ward at last election (2016): Conservative 450 (38%), Independent 399 (33%), Liberal Democrat 151 (13%), Labour 123 (10%), Green Party 71 (6%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 35,236 (54%) LEAVE 30,435 (46%) on a turnout of 80%
Candidates duly nominated: Brendan Kay (Con), Calvert McGibbon (Lab), Keiran Mullins (Lib Dem), Jim Stanley (UKIP), Andrew Wright (Green)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy but dry, 7°C
Estimate: Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative (Lib Dem 46%, Con 35%, Lab 9%, UKIP 7%, Green 3%)

Compiled by Harry Hayfield