Archive for the 'By elections' Category

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Newport West – the first electoral test for the TIGers?

Wednesday, February 20th, 2019


OrdnanceSurvey

One thing that we learnt from the launch of the SDP in 1981 is that a new party has to achieve and demonstrate electoral success quickly. Although the Independent group has made great efforts not to be a political party it will achieve success faster if it can show in real elections that both LAB and CON voters and others are more inclined to it than the parties led by Mr Corbyn and Mrs, May.

Back in 1981 I remember the great sense of excitement when the new party fought for its first by-election at Warrington. The candidate was Roy Jenkins a previous LAB home secretary who had served as a European commissioner. The SDP Lost only after achieving a considerable swing against the incumbent Labour Party.

Roy Jenkins himself returned to Parliament some months later at the Glasgow Hillhead by election.

Coincidentally what is now only the second GB by election to be held this Parliament is due in the coming months at Newport West following the death of 84 of the incumbent Labour MP Paul Flynn. My guess is that Labour will seek to schedule it on the day of the local elections in early May.

A good performance there could be critical in determining the electoral potency of TIG.

A big question might be whether the Liberal Democrats will be ready to stand aside in the interests of helping the new grouping. Back in the 80s the old Liberal party and the SDP used to do that at by-elections to let the other a clear run.

These are the results from the last two general elections in Newport West.

Back at GE2010 the LDs had 17% which might be a good pointer.

Mike Smithson




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Strong showings by the anti-Brexit LDs in the local by-elections declared overnight

Friday, February 8th, 2019

A hold, a gain and big vote share increases

Mike Smithson




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January 2019 Local By-Elections

Friday, February 1st, 2019

Bexhill West on East Sussex (January 10th 2019)
Independent 1,761 votes (52% +2% on last time)
Conservative 1,071 votes (32% -1% on last time)
Liberal Democrat 261 votes (8% +2% on last time)
Labour 111 votes (3% -4% on last time)
Green Party 107 votes (3% no candidate last time)
UKIP 81 votes (2% -2% on last time)
Independent HOLD with a majority of 690 (20%) on a swing of 1.5% from Con to Ind

St. Mark’s on Rother (January 10th 2019)
Independent 1,000 votes (60% +21% on last time)
Conservative 521 votes (31% -3% on last time)
Labour 79 votes (5% -4% on last time)
UKIP 58 votes (3% -15% on last time)
Independent HOLD with a majority of 479 (29%) on a swing of 12% from Con to Ind

Warlingham on Surrey (January 31st 2019)
Conservative 1,199 votes (48% -8% on last time)
Liberal Democrat 990 votes (40% +11% on last time)
UKIP 176 votes (7% -3% on last time)
Labour 126 votes (5% unchanged on last time)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 209 (8%) on a swing of 9.5% from Con to Lib Dem

Harry Hayfield



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It looks as though there could be by-election in an ultra marginal gained by LAB from CON at GE17

Wednesday, December 19th, 2018

What appears to be a very interesting by-election is in prospect following the conviction this afternoon of the Peterborough MP. She has been found guilty of perverting the course of justice by lying to police about who was behind the wheel of a car caught speeding.

So far she hasn’t been sentenced and there’s no indication about whether or not she will resign.

Assuming she goes this could be an almighty battle at a time when Brexit is very much dominating the political agenda. The former MP, Conservatives Stewart Jackson, became chief of staff to Brexit Secretary David Davis after losing his seat at the 2017 election.

The numbers of votes from the past two elections are above and as can be seen the Labour majority was 607 which was one of the smallest in the country.

At the referendum Peterborough local authority area went Leave 60.9% to Remain 39.1%. This could be promising territory for Nigel Farage who, of course, will be out of the European Parliament at the end of March assuming Brexit goes ahead.

Mike Smithson




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Bercow going in the summer opens the way for a Buckingham by-election

Tuesday, October 16th, 2018

The yellows must fancy their chances in this Remain seat

The news that John Bercow is bowing to the inevitable and planning to stand down in the summer opens up the prospect of what could be a humdinger of a by-election. For it is hard seeing him continuing as an MP when he ceases to be Speaker.

There is a tradition of outgoing Speakers not staying around in the House and such a move by Bercow would follow recent precedents. His immediate predecessor, Michael Martin, quit as an MP and no doubt Berow would follow suit.

    This opens up the likelihood of the contest in a constituency that went for Remain at the Brexit referendum by 51.4% to 48.6%.

I’d imagine that this is one where the LDs will fancy their chances. All the analysis of GE2017 finds that the yellows did best in constituencies that voted for Remain.

What is intriguing is that there is no main party past voting history in Buckingham for the past three general elections so there’s noting since 2005 that we can use for comparison purposes. The custom is for LAB, CON and the LDs not to contest the Speaker’s seat at general elections.

At GE2010 Nigel Farage stood against Bercow there and was pushed into third place by a former pro-EU CON MEP, John Stevens who ran a campaign that relied heavily on LD activists.

Let the betting begin.

Mike Smithson




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Local By-Election Summary : August 2018

Friday, August 31st, 2018

Conservatives 6,874 votes (33% -6% on last time) winning 7 seats (-1 on last time)
Labour 6,203 votes (30% +1% on last time) winning 3 seats (-1 on last time)
Liberal Democrats 5,202 votes (25% +12% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 on last time)
Independent candidates 1,887 votes (9% +2% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 on last time)
Green Party 427 votes (2% -3% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
UKIP 298 votes (1% -5% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Plaid Cymru 73 votes (0% +0% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Conservative lead of 671 votes (3%) on a swing of 3.56% from Con to Lab

August 2017 – August 2018
Conservatives 149,231 votes (35% +2% on last time) winning 114 seats (-27 on last time)
Labour 134,799 votes (32% +6% on last time) winning 93 seats (+5 on last time)
Liberal Democrats 71,847 votes (17% +7% on last time) winning 46 seats (+26 on last time)
Green Party 18,718 votes (4% -2% on last time) winning 4 seats (+4 on last time)
Independent candidates 17,395 votes (4% -1% on last time) winning 12 seats (+1 on last time)
Scottish National Party 13,565 votes (3% +1% on last time) winning 3 seats (unchanged on last time)
UKIP 9,113 votes (2% -10% on last time) winning 0 seats (-12 on last time)
Local Independent candidates 6,992 votes (2% unchanged on last time) winning 4 seats (+2 on last time)
Plaid Cymru 1,345 votes (0% unchanged on last time) winning 2 seats (unchanged on last time)
Other Parties 3,966 votes (1% unchanged on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 on last time)
Conservative lead of 14,432 votes (4%) on a swing of 1.97% from Con to Lab

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



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UKIP might be edging back in the polls but was the biggest vote loser in the July 2018 Local By-Elections

Thursday, August 2nd, 2018

July 2018 Local By-Election Summary

Conservatives 13,142 votes (37% +3% on last time) winning 11 seats (-1 seat on last time)
Labour 11,198 votes (31% +2% on last time) winning 9 seats (-1 seat on last time)
Liberal Democrats 5,670 votes (16% +5% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 seat on last time)
Independent Candidates 2,278 votes (6% +3% on last time) winning 2 seats (+2 seats on last time)
Green Party 862 votes (2% -5% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Plaid Cymru 747 votes (2% +1% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time)
Local Independent Candidates 737 votes (2% -1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
United Kingdom Independence Party 515 votes (1% -9% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 seat on last time)
Other Parties 498 votes (1% +0% on last time) winning 0 seats ((unchanged on last time)
Conservative lead of 1,944 votes (6%) on a swing of 0.5% from Lab to Con

Harry Hayfield



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June 2018 Local By-Election Summary

Friday, June 29th, 2018

June 2018 Monthly Summary
Conservatives 7,657 votes (40.22% -0.91% on last time) winning 8 seats (-2 seats on last time)
Labour 4,716 votes (24.77% +5.10% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 seat on last time)
Liberal Democrats 2,998 votes (15.75% +7.59% on last time) winning 4 seats (+3 seats on last time)
United Kingdom Independence Party 1,291 votes (6.78% -5.69% on last time) winning 0 seats (-2 seats on last time)
Local Independents 1,089 votes (5.72% +0.98% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 seat on last time)
Independents 836 votes (4.39% -3.97% on last time) winning 1 seat (-1 seat on last time)
Green Party 410 votes (2.15% -3.17% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Others 42 votes (0.22% +0.07% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Conservative lead of 2,941 votes (15.45%) on a swing of 3% from Con to Lab

June 2017 – June 2018
Conservatives 141,644 votes (34.29% +0.76% on last time) winning 108 seats (-24 seats on last time) from 263 candidates (+10 on last time)
Labour 133,343 votes (32.28% +5.70% on last time) winning 92 seats (+9 seats on last time) from 249 candidates (+24 on last time)
Liberal Democrats 66,665 votes (16.14% +6.36% on last time) winning 42 seats (+22 seats on last time) from 213 candidates (+77 on last time)
Green Party 20,867 votes (5.05% -1.99% on last time) winning 4 seats (+4 seats on last time) from 142 candidates (-6 on last time)
Independents 16,278 votes (3.94% -1.75% on last time) winning 11 seats (-4 seats on last time) from at least 64 candidates (at least -10 on last time)
Scottish National Party 14,460 votes (3.50% +1.36% on last time) winning 3 seats (unchanged on last time) from 13 candidates (unchanged on last time)
United Kingdom Independence Party 8,457 votes (2.05% -10.35% on last time) winning 0 seats (-11 seats on last time) from 79 candidates (-72 on last time)
Local Independents 7,218 votes (1.75% -0.02% on last time) winning 5 seats (+3 seats on last time) from 23 candidates (-4 on last time)
Plaid Cymru 626 votes (0.15% +0.05% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) from 2 candidates (+1 on last time)
Other Parties 3,550 votes (0.86% -0.12% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 seat on last time) from at least 17 candidates (at least -14 on last time)
Conservative lead of 8,301 votes (2.01%) on a swing of 2.47% from Con to Lab

Westminster General Election Forecast
Conservatives 304, Labour 255, SNP 41, Lib Dem 27, NI Parties 18, Plaid 3, Green 1, Speaker 1 (Con short of an overall majority by 22)
Con + DUP = 314 (short of an overall majority by 7 when allowing for Speaker and Sinn Fein)
Lab + Lib Dem + SNP + Plaid + Green = 327 (overall majority of 14 when allowing for Speaker and Sinn Fein)

Harry Hayfield