Will this get the core vote out in the marginals?

On the latest Radio 4’s Any Questions the schools secretary, Ed Balls, made a revealing comment on what I took to be part of Labour’s defence strategy in the marginals.

When being pressed over UNITE’s financial support for Labour including his own seat on the outskirts of Leeds he replied: ” “Unite members make contributions from their pay packets to help the fight against the BNP…..”.

That helped him handle the issue during the programme and was, I suggest, a pointer to the general election campaign.

For traditionally Labour can do well when it can persuade its core supporters that there is a something to come out to vote against. In 1997, 2001 and 2005 it was the Tories - in 2010 in some seats it could be the BNP.

For although the Tory share and Cameron’s ratings have slipped, Labour and Brown are still some way behind, so the full frontal “beastly Tories” rhetoric might not be as potent.

Only five months ago Labour saw the BNP tactic working a treat in the Glasgow NE by-election as I commented at the time. Then a closing argument to core voters was about preventing Griffin’s party from saving its deposit.

Of course this only comes into play if the BNP is standing in a marginal. So a key element to look at in assessing LAB-CON encounters is whether there’s a BNP candidate. If there is then that might just make Labour’s defence a touch easier.

Mike Smithson

Or will “BullyGate” boost the blues?

In an hour or so we’ll get the YouGov daily poll for the Sun and the Tories must be hoping that it’ll show a reversal in the trend of recent weeks.

The fieldwork started at 5pm last night and finished at 5pm this evening - so it’s pretty up to date - and is likely to have Labour benefiting much less from the after-glow of their Warwick gathering at the weekend.

It will also be the first poll to measure the impact of Andrew Rawnsley and the National Bullying Helpline stories.

Also coming up at midnight is a report by the Electoral Commission on last November’s Glasgow NE by-election. There’s apparently, sharp criticism of the Labour machine for the way it handled postal voting applications and condemnation for the prolonged delay in holding the election. I’m sure that this will be covered on the SNP website as well as in the Scottish media.

Mike Smithson

Leicester Mercury

Will Labour want to avoid the by election?

My apologies for immediately thinking of the political implications of the death yesterday of Leicester NW, MP, David Taylor, but that is the way politics is especially during a febrile period like that we are going through at the moment.

Fo the last thing that Labour needs just now is a by election in a marginal where the Tories are the main challengers - and this could become a consideration over the timing of the general election.

Apart from the cost (the expenses limit is £100,000) a Tory victory would add to the pre-general election momentum.

The seat was unaffected by boundary changes and in May 2005 the result was LAB: 21449 (45.5%): CON : 16972 (36%): LD:5682 (12.1%): OTH 3037 (6.4%) - a majority of just 9.5% which would go with a swing of 4.75.

This is one of the leading Tory targets for the general election which they absolutely have to win if they are to stand any chance of securing a majority. If there is a by election it’s hard to see this as anything other than an easy Tory gain.

The question is whether Labour would prefer a contest to take place, presumably in February/March and stick with the suggested May 6th election date or whether this makes the possibility of March 25th or April 8th that more likely?

My guess is the latter though they could try to leave the vacancy open.

Mike Smithson

By-elections.co.uk

CON 20,539 votes (14,162)
LAB 12,679 votes (21,240)
LD 6,040 votes (8,083)

The contest, held on 22 May 2008, was the first seat gained by the Tories in a by election since June 1982. The turnout was just 1.8% down on what it had been at the general election.

Mike Smithson