Archive for the 'By elections' Category

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The first local by election since GE17 – the results

Friday, June 23rd, 2017

First of all, an explanation of this new method. During the general election campaign I became aware that a lot of people were doing profiles of the wards up for local by-elections and having a look through them all I came to the conclusions that the profiles offered by Andrew Teale were far and away the best, therefore in consultation with Mike, I said that I would list the results of the local by-elections after the results had been published and that Andrew’s profiles would be referenced in those listings (which I believe is the best of both worlds

Andrew Teale’s profiles hosted by Britain Elects.com

Soham North on East Cambridgeshire (Conservative defence)
Result: Conservative 423 (60% -4% on last time), Liberal Democrat 178 (25% +5% on last time), Labour 108 (15% -1% on last time)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 245 (35%) on a swing of 4.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Yscir on Powys (No candidate stood in 2017, Independent win in 2012)
Result: Conservative 165 (30%, no candidate in 2012), Independent (Davies) 144 (26%), Plaid Cymru 101 (18%, no candidate in 2012), Green Party 80 (14%, no candidate in 2012), Independent (Evans) 62 (11%), Independent (Davies) 2 (0%).
Conservative GAIN from Independent with a majority of 21 (4%)
Total Independent Vote 2017: 208 (37% -14% on 2012)

Winterbourne on South Gloucestershire (Conservative defence)
Result: Conservative 873 (48% +2% on last time), Labour 615 (34% +19% on last time), Liberal Democrat 333 (18% -4% on last time)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 258 (14%) on a swing of 8.5% from Conservative to Labour

Yarm on Stockton on Tees (Conservative defence)
Result: Conservative 1,179 (51% +4% on last time), Independent 677 (29%, -4% on last time standing as a local Independent), Labour 394 (17% -3% on last time), Liberal Democrat 73 (3%, no candidate last time)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 502 (22%) on a swing of 4% from Independent to Conservative

Nether Edge and Sharrow on Sheffield (Labour defence)
Result: Labour 2,641 (45% +7% on last time), Green Party 2,509 (43% +9% on last time), Liberal Democrat 722 (12% -3% on last time)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 132 (2%) on a swing of 1% from Labour to Green Party

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



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Local By-Election Review : 2015 – 2017 Parliament

Friday, June 2nd, 2017

Harry Hayfield on whether they’re a pointer to Thursday

There have been 588 local by-elections during this Parliament in which a total of 1,029,887 votes have been cast. These are not virtual votes cast in opinion polls, or online, but physical votes in physical ballot boxes up and down the country. Overall these votes (and seat wins) have split as follows:

Con 30%, Lab 28%, Lib Dem 16%, UKIP 7%, SNP 6%, Green 5%, Ind 4%, Plaid 0.77%, Others 3%
Con 235 (-19), Lab 159 (-18), Lib Dem 89 (+39), UKIP 13 (-14), SNP 30 (+1), Green 8 (+4), Ind 26 (-3), Plaid 9 (+4), Others 30 (+1)

However, as we all know, there was a mass upheaval halfway through this Parliament with the European Union referendum, and it is interesting to note that in the 332 local by-elections following that referendum, the voting share (and seat wins) was:

Con 34%, Lab 27%, Lib Dem 18%, UKIP 6%, Ind 5%, Green 4%, SNP 3%, Plaid 1%, Others 2%
Con 148 (-6), Lab 81 (-22), Lib Dem 59 (+33), UKIP 6 (-9), Ind 15 (-5), Green 4 (+2), SNP 5 (-1), Plaid 5 (+3), Others 9 (+9)

Therefore in order to make sense of this sea change in politics and put it in the context of the general election, I will tally the votes cast in all the local by-elections both before and after the referendum, thus creating a midpoint by region and using that to calculate the number of seats that each party may win. I realise that this may upset some people but seeing as we have multiple polling organisations stating that (on the same day) the Conservative lead is in the range of 3% to 12%, then I believe my methodology has just as much validity as theirs

Regional Breakdown of Votes (and Seat Forecast)
Scotland: SNP 44%, Lab 25%, Con 20%, Lib Dem 5%, Green 5%, UKIP 1%
Forecast: SNP 50 (-6), Con 5 (+4), Lab 3 (+2), Lib Dem 1 (unchanged)
North Eastern England: Lab 44%, Con 25%, Lib Dem 18%, UKIP 11%, Green 2%
Forecast: Lab 24 (-2), Con 5 (+2)
North Western England: Lab 47%, Con 29%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 7%, Green 5%
Forecast: Lab 53 (+2), Con 20 (-2), Lib Dem 2 (unchanged)
Yorkshire and the Humber: Con 33%, Lab 32%, Lib Dem 16%, UKIP 16%, Green 3%
Forecast: Lab 26 (-7), Con 23 (+4), Lib Dem 2 (unchanged), UKIP 3 (+3)
Wales: Lab 40%, Plaid 24%, Lib Dem 16%, Con 15%, UKIP 4%, Green 1%
Forecast: Lab 30 (+5), Con 4 (-7), Plaid 4 (+1), Lib Dem 2 (+1)
West Midlands: Con 38%, Lab 34%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 11%, Green 5%
Forecast: Con 32 (-1), Lab 26 (+1)
East Midlands: Con 47%, Lab 29%, Lib Dem 13%, UKIP 9%, Green 2%
Forecast: Con 32 (unchanged), Lab 14 (unchanged)
Eastern England: Con 40%, Lab 21%, Lib Dem 21%, UKIP 13%, Green 4%
Forecast: Con 47 (-5), Lab 6 (+2), Lib Dem 3 (+2), UKIP 2 (+1)
Greater London: Lab 52%, Con 21%, Lib Dem 14%, Green 9%, UKIP 4%
Forecast: Lab 54 (+9), Con 15 (-12), Lib Dem 4 (+3)
South Eastern England: Con 45%, Lib Dem 21%, Lab 19%, UKIP 11%, Green 3%
Forecast: Con 69 (-9), Lab 7 (+3), Lib Dem 5 (+5), Green 1 (unchanged), Speaker 1 (unchanged), UKIP 1 (+1)
South Western England: Con 38%, Lib Dem 35%, Lab 13%, UKIP 8%, Green 7%
Forecast: Con 34 (-17), Lab 5 (+1), Lib Dem 16 (+16)
Grand Total:
Con 286 (-45), Lab 248 (+16), SNP 50 (-6), Lib Dem 35 (+27), Northern Ireland 18 (unchanged), UKIP 6 (+5), Plaid 4 (+1), Speaker 1 (unchanged), Green 1 (unchanged)
(Hung Parliament, Conservatives short by 40)
Coalition Builder: Lab (248) + SNP (50) = 298
Coalition Builder: Con (286) + Unionists (10) + UKIP (6) = 302
Liberal Democrats hold the balance



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Tonight’s one local by-election

Thursday, May 25th, 2017

Shoeburyness on Southend on Sea (Ind defence, death of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 25, Labour 11, Independents 10, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Liberal Democrats 2 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3)
Result of ward at last election (2016): Independent (Assenheim) 728 (29%), Conservative 607 (24%), Independent (Chalk) 527 (21%), United Kingdom Independence Party 309 (12%), Labour 236 (9%), Green Party 57 (2%), Liberal Democrats 50 (2%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 39,348 (42%), LEAVE 54,522 (58%) on a turnout of 73%)
Candidates duly nominated: Anne Chalk (Ind), Paul Hill (Green), Val Jarvis (Con), Maggie Kelly (Lab), Edward McNally (UKIP), Gavin Spencer (Lib Dem)
Weather at the close of polls: Clear, 14°C
Estimate: Too close to call (Ind 36%, Con 29%, Lib Dem 12%, UKIP 11%, Lab 11%, Green 1%)

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



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Local By-Election Preview May 18th 2017 (T-21 days until Election 2017)

Thursday, May 18th, 2017

Reeth and Arkengarthdale on Richmondshire (Ind defence, death of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 21, Independents 7, Richmondshire Independents 4, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 8)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Ind 544 (76%), Green 116 (16%), Lab 56 (8%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 11,945 (43%) LEAVE 15,691 (57%) on a turnout of 75%
Candidates duly nominated: Ian Scott (Con)
Result: Conservative GAIN from Independent, unopposed

Enfield Lock on Enfield (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 41, Conservatives 22 (Labour majority of 19)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 2,395, 2,203, 2,189 (51%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 829 (18%)
Conservatives 725, 683, 537 (16%)
Green Party 443 (9%)
British National Party 296 (6%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 76,425 (56%) LEAVE 60,481 (44%) on a turnout of 69%
Candidates duly nominated: Christine Bellas (Con), Elif Erbil (Lab), Kate McGeevor (Green), Richard Morgan-Ash (Lib Dem), Gary Robbens (UKIP)
Weather at the close of polls: Heavy Rain, 11°C
Estimate: Lab HOLD (Lab 45%, Lib Dem 20%, Con 19%, UKIP 11%, Green 5%)



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Four weeks to go and two local by-elections – LAB & CON defences in seats where UKIP did well

Thursday, May 11th, 2017

Fairstead on King’s Lynn and West Norfolk (Lab defence, death of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 50, Labour 10, Independents 2 (Conservative majority of 38)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 753, 727 (39%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 599 (31%)
Conservatives 593, 469 (31%)
EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 28,587 (34%) LEAVE 56,493 (66%) on a turnout of 75%
Candidates duly nominated: Rob Colwell (Liberal Democrat), Gary Howman (Labour), Ronald Mortimer (Conservative) and Michael Stone (UKIP)
Weather at the close of polls: Clear, 12°C
Estimate: Too close to call (Lab 35%, Con 31%, Lib Dem 17%, UKIP 17%)

Woodville on South Derbyshire (Con defence, death of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 24, Labour 12 (Conservative majority of 12)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,443, 1,317, 1,236 (33%)
Labour 1,431, 1,239, 1,167 (33%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 1,168, 839, 739 (27%)
Liberal Democrat 337 (8%)
EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 22,479 (40%) LEAVE 34,216 (60%) on a turnout of 77%
Candidates duly nominated: Mike Dawson (UKIP), Malc Gee (Lab), Raymond Tipping (Con), Rebecca Wilkinson (Lib Dem)
Weather at the close of polls: Cloudy, but dry, 12°C
Estimate: Too close to call (Con 34%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 18%, UKIP 17%)

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



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Local By-Elections on Local Election Day 2017 (T- 35 days and counting until GE 2017)

Thursday, May 4th, 2017

Today, as well as the elections to the English counties, Scottish councils, Welsh councils (of which I am currently dozing in order to be bright eyed and bushy tailed at anything up to 4.00am tomorrow morning) and the new Metro Mayor elections (not forgetting Doncaster of course), there are 107 local by-elections up and down the country in those areas which do not have any local elections. Now clearly 107 is way too many for a single preview so here are some of the rather choice ones of those 107.

Maidenblower on Crawley (Conservative defence)
(Crawley constituency is ranked as Labour’s 72nd target of the 94 they need for an overall majority)
Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 20, Conservatives 17 (Labour majority of 3)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Conservative 1,114 (53%), Labour 508 (24%), United Kingdom Independence Party 486 (23%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 22,388 (42%) LEAVE 31,447 (58%) on a turnout of 73%
Candidates duly nominated: Nigel Boxall (Con), Paul Cummings (Lib Dem), Morgan Flack (Lab), Allan Griffiths (UKIP), Richard Kail (Green)
Estimate: Con HOLD (Con 43%, Lib Dem 22%, Lab 20%, UKIP 12%, Green 3%)

Hall Green (Labour defence) and Perry Barr (Liberal Democrat defence) on Birmingham
Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 80, Conservative 29, Liberal Democrat 10, Independent 1 (Labour majority of 40)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 223,451 (49.6%) LEAVE 227,251 (50.4%) on a turnout of 64%

Hall Green
(Birmingham, Hall Green constituency is ranked as the Conservative’s 241st target and would go Con on a swing of 21.06%)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 4,994 (40%), Conservative 2,923 (24%), Liberal Democrat 2,029 (16%), Independent 1,003 (8%), United Kingdom Independence Party 980 (8%), Green Party 390 (3%), Trade Unionist and Socialist 48 (0%)
Candidates duly nominated: Alan Blumenthal (UKIP), Tanveer Choudhry (Lib Dem), Liz Clements (Lab), Gareth Courage (Green), Obaid Khan (Con)
Estimate: Lab HOLD (Lab 38%, Con 26%, Lib Dem 26%, UKIP 8%, Green 2%)

Perry Barr
(Birmingham, Perry Barr constituency is ranked as the Liberal Democrats’ 539th target and would go Lib Dem on a swing of 26.29%)
Result of ward at last election (2016): Liberal Democrat 3,248 (55%), Labour 2,085 (36%), Conservative 338 (6%), Green Party 200 (3%)
Candidates duly nominated: Matthew Ford (Green), Mohammed Hanif (Lab), Jan Morriam (Lib Dem), Minu Sungu (Con)
Estimate: Lib Dem HOLD (Lib Dem 59%, Lab 28%, Con 10%, Green 2%)

Newport on Uttlesford (Residents defence)
(Uttlesford is part of the Saffron Walden constituency which has been Conservative since 1929 when Rab Butler was the MP)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 23, Residents 9, Liberal Democrats 6, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 7)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Residents 1,028, 1,004 (53%)
Conservatives 624, 601 (32%)
Liberal Democrat 285 (15%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 25,619 (49%) LEAVE 26,324 (51%) on a turnout of 80%
Candidates duly nominated: Anthony Gerard (Residents), Jayne Pacey (Lib Dem), Paul Simper (Con)
Estimate: Residents HOLD (Residents 45%, Con 31%, Lib Dem 24%)

Malvern West on Malvern Hills (Green defence)
(Malvern Hills makes up part of the Worcestershire West constituency, which requires a swing to the Greens of 24.82% to be gained by the Greens)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 23, Independents 7, Liberal Democrats 5, Green 3 (Conservative majority of 8)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Green Party 1,421, 1,346 (59%)
Conservatives 968, 747 (41%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 23,203 (48%) LEAVE 25,294 (52%) on a turnout of 81%
Candidates duly nominated: Henry Clarke (Con), Andy Gardner (Lab), Natalie McVey (Green), Dee Tomlin (Lib Dem)
Estimate: Too close to call (Con 37%, Green 30%, Lib Dem 30%, Lab 3%)

Maxton, Elms Vale and Priory on Dover (UKIP defence)
(Dover constituency is UKIP’s 47th target seat and would go UKIP on a swing of 11.51%)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 25, Labour 17, United Kingdom Independence Party 3 (Conservative majority of 5)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,157, 1,114, 1,039 (36%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 1,077, 1,035, 976 (34%)
Conservatives 967, 960, 899 (30%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 24,606 (38%) LEAVE 40,410 (62%) on a turnout of 77%
Candidates duly nominated: Peter McDermott (UKIP), Ann Napier (Lab), Roger Walkden (Con), Graham Wanstall (Ind)
Estimate: Too close to call (Lab 32%, Con 30%, Ind 20%, UKIP 18%)

Harry Hayfield



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Gloomy local by-election news for LAB in the week a General Election was called

Friday, April 21st, 2017

Blacon on Chester West and Chester (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result: Labour 1,556 (59% +1%), Conservative 574 (22% +4%), Independent 434 (16%, no candidate at last election), Liberal Democrat 70 (3%, no candidate at last election)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 982 (37%) on a swing of 1.5% from Lab to Con (notional swing of 1% from Lab to Lib Dem, 0.5% from Lib Dem to Con)

Kenton East on Harrow (Lab defence, death of sitting member)
Result: Conservative 1,585 (52% +19%), Labour 1,328 (44% +1%), Liberal Democrat 65 (2%, no candidate at last election), United Kingdom Independence Party 54 (2% -9%)
Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 257 (8%) on a swing of 9% from Lab to Con (notional swing of 8.5% from Lib Dem to Con, 0.5% from Lab to Lib Dem)

Monthly Summary: April 2017
Conservatives 5,303 votes (39% +6% on last time) winning 5 seats (+3 seats on last time)
Labour 4,137 votes (31% -2% on last time) winning 1 seat (-2 seats on last time)
Liberal Democrats 2,189 votes (16% +5% on last time) winning 2 seats (+1 seat on last time)
Green Party 778 votes (6% +1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Independents 752 votes (6% -1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
United Kingdom Independence Party 339 votes (3% -9% on last time winning 0 seats (-2 on last time)
Conservative lead of 1,166 votes (8%) on a swing of 4% from Lab to Con
Liberal Democrat swings: Lib Dem to Con of 0.5%, Lab to Lib Dem of 3.5%



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Two local by-elections tonight – both LAB defences

Thursday, April 20th, 2017

Blacon on Chester West and Chester (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 38, Conservatives 36, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 1)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 3,579, 3,349, 3,119 (58%)
Conservatives 1,109, 979, 941 (18%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 1,054, 1,037, 805 (17%)
Green Party 482, 303, 227 (8%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 95,455 (49%) LEAVE 98,082 (51%) on a turnout of 75%
Candidates duly nominated: Steve Ingram (Ind), Jack Jackson (Con), Lizzie Jewkes (Lib Dem), Ben Powell (Lab)
Weather at the close of polls: Cloudy but dry, 12°C
Estimate: Labour HOLD (Lab 57%, Con 24%, Lib Dem 14%, Ind 5%)

Kenton East on Harrow (Lab defence, death of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 34, Conservatives 26, Independents 2, Liberal Democrat 1 (Labour majority of 5)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,695, 1,561, 1,550 (43%)
Conservatives 1,310, 1,200, 1,178 (33%)
Independents 534, 459, 377 (13%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 453 (11%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 64,042 (55%) LEAVE 53,183 (45%) on a turnout of 72%
Candidates duly nominated: Annabel Croft (Lib Dem), Herbert Crossman (UKIP), Nitesh Hirani (Con), N Patel (Lab)
Weather at the close of polls: Cloudy but dry, 12°C
Estimate: Too close to call (Lab 37%, Con 32%, Lib Dem 21%, UKIP 10%)