Archive for the 'By elections' Category

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Local By-Election Review : October 5th 2017

Friday, October 6th, 2017

Mash Barn on Adur (UKIP defence)
Result: Labour 490 (49% +25% on last time), Conservative 384 (39% +17% on last time), Liberal Democrat 89 (9% -14% on last time), Green Party 31 (3%, no candidate last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -41%)
Labour GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 106 (10%) on a swing of 4% from Conservative to Labour

Borehamwood, Kenilworth on Hertsmere (Con defence)
Result: Labour 383 (38% -9% on last time), Conservative 341 (34% -19% on last time), Liberal Democrat 144 (14%, no candidate last time), Independent 91 (9%, no candidate last time), UKIP 54 (5%, no candidate last time)
Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 42 (4%) on a swing of 5% from Conservative to Labour

Burnham, Lent Rise and Taplow on South Buckinghamshire (Con defence)
Result: Conservative 699 (66% +14% on last time), Labour 166 (16% unchanged on last time), Liberal Democrat 136 (13%, no candidate last time), Green Party 60 (6% -7% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -18%), (No Independent candidate this time -10%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 533 (50%) on a swing of 7% from Labour to Conservative

Stoneleigh and Cubbington on Warwick (Con defence)
Result: Conservative 502 (53% +13% on last time), Labour 311 (33% +16% on last time), Liberal Democrat 113 (12%, no candidate last time), Green Party 29 (3% -10% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -30%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 191 (20%) on a swing of 1.5% from Conservative to Labour

Burbage, Sketchley and Stretton on Hinckley and Bosworth (Con defence)
Result: Conservative 822 (39% -5% on last time), Liberal Democrat 785 (37% +8% on last time), Labour 321 (15% +2% on last time), UKIP 120 (6% -8% on last time), Independent 57 (3%, no candidate last time)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 37 (2%) on a swing of 6.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Crewe East on Cheshire East (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 1,174 (61% +15% on last time), Conservative 542 (28% +6% on last time), UKIP 158 (8% -15% on last time), Green Party 59 (3% -6% on last time)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 632 (33%) on a swing of 4.5% from Conservative to Labour

Claremont on Salford (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 718 (47% +2% on last time), Conservative 447 (29% +9% on last time), Independent 171 (11% no candidate last time), Liberal Democrat 162 (10% +4% on last time), Green Party 46 (3% -3% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -22%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 271 (18%) on a swing of 3.5% from Labour to Conservative

St. Germain’s on Redcar and Cleveland (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Liberal Democrat 661 (38% +8% on last time), Labour 368 (21% +1% on last time), Independent 261 (15%), Independent 225 (13%), Conservative 174 (10% -3% on last time), Green Party 31 (2% -10% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -16%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 293 (17%) on a swing of 3.5% from Labour to Liberal Democrat

Party Conference Index Update
Liberal Democrats: +9.59%, Labour: +8.52%, Conservatives: +3.39%, UKIP: -13.12% (in all seats) -12% (in contested seats)
Scottish National Party conference October 8th – 10th 2017, Plaid Cymru conference October 20th – 21st 2017



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The Political Betting Local By-Election Conference Bounce Index : Week One

Friday, September 22nd, 2017

Over the next few weeks the major parties will be holding their party conferences and just as in every other week there are local by-elections all over the country, therefore for the duration of this Parliament we will be keeping track of how the parties do in the week of their party conferences. This week the Liberal Democrats met in Bournemouth and there were three local by-elections in Chesterfield, Oadby and Wigston and Waveney, so let’s see how they did and get a score to place on the board that Corbyn meeting in Brighton will need to match this time next week.

Holmebrook on Chesterfield (Lab defence)
Result: Liberal Democrat 510 (50% +22% on last time), Labour 435 (43% -8% on last time), Conservative 62 (6% -7% on last time), Independent 14 (1%, no candidate last time). No Other Party candidate this time (-7%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour with a majority of 75 (7%) on a swing of 15% from Labour to Liberal Democrat

Oadby, Uplands on Oadby and Wigston (Lab defence)
Result: Liberal Democrat 435 (39% unchanged on last time), Labour 384 (34% +3% on last time) , Conservative 295 (26% -3% on last time)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour with a majority of 51 (5%) on a swing of 1.5% from Liberal Democrat to Labour

Oulton Brand on Waveney (Con defence)
Result: Conservative 527 (50% +9% on last time), Labour 357 (34% +5% on last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 112 (11% -11% on last time), Liberal Democrat 54 (5%, no candidate last time) No Green Party candidate this time (-8%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 170 (16%) on a swing of 2% from Labour to Conservative

% Change on last time
Labour +1.46%, Liberal Democrats +9.99%, Conservatives -1.90%, UKIP -4.69%, Green -3.04%, Others -1.83%

So Vince scores +9.99% and sets the marker for Corbyn in next week’s local by-elections. Will the mantra of “for the many not the few” be repeated during his conference speech and will be enough to ensure that Labour poll an increase of greater than 10% in next week’s local by-elections? You’ll just have to wait and see.

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



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Tonight’s by election previews

Thursday, September 21st, 2017

TSE



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Local By-Election Review : September 14th 2017

Friday, September 15th, 2017

 

Westexe on Mid Devon (United Kingdom Independence Party defence)
Result: Conservative 279 (36% +6% on last time), Independent 179 (23% +4% on last time), Labour 164 (21% +9% on last time), Liberal Democrat 144 (19%, no candidate last time) No UKIP candidate this time (-28%), No Green candidate this time (-12%)

Conservative GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 100 (13%) on a notional swing of 1% from Independent to Conservative (actual swing: 17% from UKIP to Con)

Lyme Regis and Charmouth on West Dorset (Con defence)
Result: Non Party Independent 622 (52% +46%), Conservative 396 (33% -14% on last time), Labour 171 (14%, no candidate last time) No Liberal Democrat candidate this time (-27%), No Green candidate this time (-19%)

Independent GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 226 (19%) on a swing of 30% from Conservative to Independent

Bucklow, St. Martin’s on Trafford (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 1,050 (65% +2% on last time), Conservative 456 (28% unchanged on last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 65 (4%, no candidate last time), Green Party 33 (2% -7% on last time), Liberal Democrat 18 (1%, no candidate last time)

Labour HOLD with a majority of 594 (37%) on a swing of 1% from Conservative to Labour

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



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Previewing tonight’s 3 by elections

Thursday, September 14th, 2017

TSE



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Tonight’s sonnet like by elections

Thursday, September 7th, 2017

TSE



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LAB the big winner in the August local by-elections with net gain of 3 and vote share up 14%

Friday, September 1st, 2017

Local By-Election Summary : August 2017

Votes Cast, Share and Change on last time
Labour 6,275 votes (41% +14% on last time) winning 6 seats (+3 seats on last time)
Conservatives 5,893 votes (38% +3% on last time) winning 5 seats (unchanged on last time)
Liberal Democrats 2,000 votes (13% +4% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time)
United Kingdom Independence Party 618 votes (4% -14% on last time) winning 0 seats (-2 seats on last time)
Green Party 365 votes (2% -4% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Independent candidates 263 votes (2% unchanged on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Local Independent candidates 61 votes (0% -4% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 seat on last time)
Labour lead of 382 votes (3%) on a swing of 5.5% from Con to Lab

Seats GAINED in August 2017
Conservative GAIN St. Margaret’s with St. Nicholas on King’s Lynn and West Norfolk from Labour
Labour GAIN Milton, Regis on Swale from United Kingdom Independence Party
Labour GAIN Margate Central on Thanet from United Kingdom Independence Party
Labour GAIN Marine on Worthing from Conservative
Labour GAIN North Worle on North Somerset from North Somerset First

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



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UKIP’s woes continue losing both by-elections they were defending on big swings to LAB

Friday, August 4th, 2017

Meanwhile LAB gains seat from CON, and CON gains one from LAB

Loughborough, Shelthorpe on Charnwood (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 595 (45% +5% on last time), Conservative 591 (45%, unchanged on last time), Liberal Democrat 93 (7%, no candidate last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 29 (2%, no candidate last time) No Green Party candidate this time (-15%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 4 (0%) on a swing from Con to Lab of 2.5%

St. Margaret’s with St. Nicholas on King’s Lynn and West Norfolk (Lab defence)
Result: Conservative 253 (36% -7% on last time), Labour 210 (30% -3% on last time), Liberal Democrat 173 (25%, no candidate last time), Green Party 63 (9% -15% on last time)
Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 43 (6%) on a swing of 2% from Lab to Con

Penshurst, Fordscombe and Chiddingstone on Sevenoaks (Con defence)
Result: Conservative 438 (59% +6% on last time), Liberal Democrat 253 (34% unchanged on last time), Labour 54 (7%, no candidate last time) No Green Party candidate this time (-13%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 185 (25%) on a swing of 3% from Lib Dem to Con

Milton, Regis on Swale (UKIP defence)
Result: Labour 573 (54% +25% on last time), Conservative 255 (24% -10% on last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 151 (14% -15% on last time), Liberal Democrat 86 (8% -1% on last time)
Labour GAIN from United Kingdom Independence Party with a majority of 318 (30%) on a swing of 17.5% from Con to Lab (20% from UKIP to Lab)

Margate Central on Thanet (UKIP defence)
Result: Labour 454 (58% +29% on last time), Conservative 190 (24% +2% on last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 52 (7% -25% on last time), Liberal Democrat 33 (4%, no candidate last time) Independent 24 (3% unchanged on last time), Green Party 23 (3% -9% on last time), Independent 13 (2%, unchanged on last time)
Labour GAIN from United Kingdom Independence Party with a majority of 264 (34%) on a swing of 13.5% from Con to Lab (27% from UKIP to Lab)

Marine on Worthing (Con defence)
Result: Labour 1,032 (47% +27% on last time), Conservative 846 (39% -6% on last time), Liberal Democrat 246 (11% +1% on last time), Green Party 55 (3% -6% on last time) No UKIP candidate this time (-16%)
Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 186 (8%) on a swing of 16.5% from Con to Lab

Compiled by Harry Hayfield