Archive for the 'By elections' Category

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Local By-Election Review : November 30th 2017 and November 2017

Friday, December 1st, 2017

Maidstone North on Maidstone (Con defence)

Result: Con 364 (26% -6% on last time), Lab 270 (19% +8% on last time), Lib Dem 719 (51% +20% on last time), Green 47 (3% -2% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -20%)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 355 (25%) on a swing of 13% from Con to Lib Dem

Westway on Tanbridge (Lib Dem defence)

Result: Con 239 (26% -3% on last time), Lab 118 (13% -3% on last time), Lib Dem 483 (54% +18% on last time), UKIP 62 (7% -12% on last time)

Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 244 (28%) on a swing of 10.5% from Con to Lib Dem

Bridgemary North on Gosport (Lab defence)

Result: Con 212 (19% -9% on last time), Lab 255 (23% -49% on last time), Lib Dem 644 (58%, no candidate last time)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour with a majority of 389 (35%) on a notional swing of 53.5% from Lab to Lib Dem (actual swing: 20% from Lab to Con)

Torrington on Torridge (UKIP defence, sitting as Independent)

Result: Con 159 (14% -6% on last time), Lib Dem 701 (60%, no candiate last time), UKIP 49 (4% -17% on last time), Green 76 (7% -15% on last time), Ind 180 (15% -10% on last time) (No Labour candidate this time -12%)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 521 (45%) on a notional swing of 35% from Ind to Lib Dem (actual swing: 2.5% from Green to Ind)

Monthly Summary (November 2017)

Conservatives 17,775 votes (36.22% +1.71% on last time) winning 14 seats (-4 on last time)

Liberal Democrats 12,397 votes (25.26% +13.00% on last time) winning 9 seats (+7 on last time)

Labour 11,971 votes (24.39% +0.15% on last time) winning 10 seats (-2 on last time)

Scottish National Party 2,616 votes (5.33% +1.58% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)

Green Party 2,127 votes (4.33% -2.98% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 on last time)

United Kingdom Independence Party 880 votes (1.79% -11.58% on last time) winning 0 seats (-2 on last time)

Independent candidates 603 votes (1.23% -1.67% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)

Plaid Cymru 525 votes (1.07% +0.24% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time)

Other Parties 187 votes (0.38% +0.10% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)

Conservative lead of 5,378 votes (10.96%) on a swing of 5.65% from Con to Lib Dem (0.78% from Lab to Con)

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



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Local By-Election Review : November 23rd 2017

Friday, November 24th, 2017

Perth City South on Perth and Kinross (Con defence)

First Preferences: Con 1,734 (31% +6% on last time), Lab 314 (6% unchanged on last time), Lib Dem 1,597 (29% -6% on last time), Green 102 (2% -1% on last time), Ind 25 (0% -4% on last time), SNP 1,780 (32% +6% on last time)

SNP lead of 46 (1%) with no swing between Con and SNP (6% swing from Lib Dem to SNP)

Conservative HOLD elected on sixth count

Rutherglen Central and North on South Lanarkshire (Lab defence)

First Preferences: Con 368 (12% -4% on last time), Lab 1,173 (38% +7% on last time), Lib Dem 554 (18% +9% on last time), UKIP 28 (1%, no candidate last time), Green 88 (3% -1% on last time), SNP 836 (27% -12% on last time)

Lab lead of 337 (11%) on a swing of 9.5% from SNP to Lab

Labour HOLD elected on fifth count

Parkfield and Oxbridge on Stockton on Tees (Lab defence)

Result: Con 409 (31% +4% on last time), Lab 727 (55% +9% on last time), Lib Dem 37 (3% -2% on last time), Ind 156 (12% unchanged on last time) (No Green candidate this time -8%, No other party candidates this time -2%)

Labour HOLD with a majority of 318 (24%) on a swing of 2.5% from Con to Lab

Wakefield East on Wakefield (Lab defence)

Result: Con 933 (41% +12% on last time), Lab 1,118 (50% +7% on last time), Lib Dem 46 (2% no candidate last time), Yorkshire Party 156 (7%, no candidate last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -22%, no Green candidate this time -5%, no other party candidates this time -1%)

Labour HOLD with a majority of 185 (9%) on a swing of 2.5% from Con to Lab

Eyres Monsell on Leicester (Lab defence)

Result: Con 170 (16% -2% on last time), Lab 556 (53% +10% on last time), Lib Dem 320 (31% +24% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -26%, No Green candidate this time -6%)

Labour HOLD with a majority of 236 (22%) on a notional swing of 18% from UKIP to Lab (7% from Lab to Lib Dem)

Bryncoch South on Neath and Port Talbot (Plaid defence)

Result: Con 105 (10% -9% on last time), Lab 306 (29% +5% on last time), Lib Dem 92 (9% +4% on last time), UKIP 33 (3% no candidate last time), Plaid 525 (49% +4% on last time) (No Green candiate this time -6%)

Plaid Cymru HOLD with a majority of 219 (20%) on a swing of 0.5% from Plaid to Lab

Bishop’s Frome and Cradley on Herefordshire (Con defence)

Result: Con 299 (29% -40% on last time), Lab 19 (2% no candidate last time), Lib Dem 251 (24% no candidate last time), Green 471 (45% +14% on last time)

Green GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 172 (16%) on a swing of 27% from Con to Green

Chalford on Stroud (Con defence)

Result: Con 751 (45% +13% on last time), Lab 421 (25% -3% on last time), Lib Dem 146 (9% no candidate last time), Green 342 (21% -7% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -13%)

Conservative HOLD with a majority of 330 (20%) on a swing of 8% from Lab to Con (10% from Green to Con)

Grumbolds Ash with Avening on Cotswold (Con defence)

Result: Con 420 (65% -6% on last time), Lab 93 (14% no candidate last time), Lib Dem 136 (21% -8% on last time)

Conservative HOLD with a majority of 284 (44%) on a swing of 1% from Lib Dem to Con

St. Margaret’s at Cliffe on Dover (Con defence)

Result: Con 750 (70% +17% on last time), Lab 314 (30% +8% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -25%)

Conservative HOLD with a majority of 436 (40%) on a swing of 4.5% from Lab to Con

Harry Hayfield



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Local By-Election Review : November 17th 2017

Friday, November 17th, 2017

Kirkley on Waveney (Lab defence)
Result: Con 217 (28% +7% on last time), Lab 374 (48% +12% on last time), Lib Dem 84 (11% no candidate last time), UKIP 78 (10% -10% on last time), Green 30 (4% -5% on last time) (No Independent candidate this time -15%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 157 (20%) on a swing of 2.5% from Con to Lab

St. Margaret’s on Waveney (Lab defence)
Result: Con 487 (42% +12% on last time), Lab 410 (35% -1% on last time), Lib Dem 88 (8% no candidate last time), UKIP 119 (10% -16% on last time), Green 65 (6% -2% on last time)
Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 77 (7%) on a swing of 6.5% from Lab to Con

Penn and Coleshill on Chiltern (Con defence)
Result: Con 697 (81%), Lib Dem 168 (19%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 529 (62%). No swing calculation due to unopposed return last time.

Sudbrooke on West Lindsey (Con defence)
Result: Con 391 (70% +1% on last time), Lab 171 (30% +10% on last time) (No Liberal Democrat candidate this time (-11%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 220 (40%) on a swing of 4.5% from Con to Lab

Whaplode and Holbeach St. John’s on South Holland (Con defence)
Result: Con 541 (78% +21% on last time), Lab 153 (22% no candidate last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -43%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 388 (56%) on a notional swing of 0.5% from Con to Lab (Actual swing: 32% from UKIP to Con)

Staining and Weeton on Flyde (Con defence)
Result: Con 401 (73% +8% on last time, Lab 111 (20% -15% on last time), Lib Dem 37 (7% no candidate last time)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 290 (53%) on a swing of 11.5% from Lab to Con

Penrith North on Eden (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Con 291 (31% -1% on last time), Lab 155 (17% -8% on last time), Lib Dem 422 (45% +2% on last time), Green 65 (7% no candidate last time)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 131 (14%) on a swing of 1.5% from Con to Lib Dem

Mowden on Darlington (Con defence)
Result: Con 652 (61% +15% on last time), Lab 285 (27% -5% on last time), Lib Dem 111 (10% no candidate last time), Green 26 (2% -5% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -15%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 367 (34%) on a swing of 11% from Lab to Con

Red Hall and Lingfield on Darlington (Lab defence)
Result: Con 230 (41% +12% on last time), Lab 249 (45% -2% on last time), Lib Dem 11 (2% -10% on last time), Green 20 (4% -8% on last time), Ind 46 (8% no candidate last time)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 19 (4%) on a swing of 7% from Lab to Con

Victoria on Hartlepool (Lab defence)
Result: Con 98 (11% -1% on last time), Lab 479 (53% +12% on last time), UKIP 325 (36% (+13% on last time) (No Green candidate this time -7%, No Hartlepool First candidate this time -15%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 154 (17%) on a swing of 0.5% from Lab to UKIP



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Punter anger at the way William Hill settled its LAB MPs resigning in 2017 market

Tuesday, November 14th, 2017

Bet definitions are so important

In the last thread there was a lot of discussion about the precise definition of what particular markets mean. What exactly, for instance, is defined as Britain leaving the EU?

The definitions of political bets can often be problematical and can lead to arguments with bookmakers.

A current case involves a prominent PBer who has raised the question of how William Hill has settled its number of LAB MPs to resign in 2017 market which it opened at the start of the year. This is how he described it:

I’ve just discovered William Hill have settled my ‘6 or fewer Labour MPs to resign their seats in 2017’ bet as a loser. I asked them why, and they’ve treated MPs not standing in the snap election as resigning. I consider resigning as an MP to only count if you leave mid-term, and that those MPs simply retired when their term expired and didn’t seek to extend it.

As a result I wrote to Hills 8 days ago the following email:

I am writing a piece on the difficulties of settling a market you had at the start of the year on how many LAB MPs would resign their seats during 2017.

This, you will recall was in context with dissatisfaction with Corbyn and the MP for Copeland quitting Parliament and then Tristram Hunt doing the same his Stoke Central seat to take a job at the V&A. Thus creating two by elections. There was talk at the time of others following suit.

You put up a market on how many LAB would resign by the end of 2017. The lowest option was 6 MPs or fewer which you have now settled as a loser. Your reasoning was that several LAB MPs didn’t stand again at the general election thus taking it above the 6 threshold.

It can be argued that not standing again in an unforeseen general election is not the same as resigning during a parliament thus creating by-elections

Can I ask whether those who bet on more than 6 MPS resigning will be regarded as winners?

I have had no response from William Hill

Mike Smithson




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Local By-Election Review : November 9th 2017

Friday, November 10th, 2017

Limestone Peak on High Peak (Con defence)
Result: Con 261 (54% +4% on last time), Lab 133 (27% unchanged on last time), Lib Dem 58 (12% no candidate last time), Green 34 (7% no candidate last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -23%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 128 (27%) on a swing of 2% from Labour to Conservative

Buckley, Bistre West on Flintshire (Lab defence)
Result: Con 59 (8% no candidate last time), Lab 398 (54% +5% on last time), Lib Dem 85 (12% -23% on last time), Ind 110 (15%), Ind 86 (12%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 288 (39%) on a notional swing of 5% from Labour to Independent
(Total Independent vote: 196 (27% +9% on last time)
Swing: 2% from Labour to Independent

Stubbington on Fareham (UKIP defence, defected to Con)
Result: Con 796 (36% +6% on last time), Lab 76 (4% unchanged on last time), Lib Dem 1,185 (55% +32% on last time), UKIP 117 (5% -38% on last time)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from United Kingdom Independence Party with a majority of 389 (19%) on a notional swing of 13% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat (Actual swing: 35% from UKIP to Lib Dem)

Gospel Oak on Camden (Lab defence)
Result: Con 303 (15% -3% on last time), Lab 1,144 (58% (+11% on last time), Lib Dem 510 (26% +19% on last time), Others 31 (2% -1% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -10%, No Green candidate this time -15%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 634 (32%) on a swing of 4% from Labour to Liberal Democrat (7% from Con to Lab)

Thamesfield on Wandsworth (Con defence)
Result: Con 1,910 (49% unchanged on last time), Lab 1,101 (28% +10% on last time), Lib Dem 619 (16% +5% on last time), Green 275 (7% -9% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -6%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 809 (21%) on a swing of 5% from Conservative to Labour



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Bad for the Tories – good for the LDs: This week’s Local By-Elections

Friday, November 3rd, 2017

Aldwick West on Arun (Con defence)
Result: Con 480 (35% -17% on last time), Lab 112 (8%, no candidate last time), Lib Dem 719 (53% +35% on last time), Green 54 (4%, no candidate last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -30%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 239 (18%) on a swing of 26% from Con to Lib Dem

Beaconsfield on Buckinghamshire (Con defence)
Result: Con 1,298 (81% +11% on last time), Lib Dem 299 (19% +3% on last time) (No Lab candidate this time -7%, No UKIP candidate this time -7%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 999 (62%) on a swing of 4% from Lib Dem to Con

Beaconsfield North on South Buckinghamshire (Con defence)
Result: Con 441 (76% -10% on last time), Lib Dem 136 (24%, no candidate last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -14%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 305 (52%) on a notional swing of 17% from Con to Lib Dem (2% swing from UKIP to Con)

Braunton East on North Devon (Con defence)
Result: Con 225 (18% -18% on last time), Lab 165 (13% +6% on last time), Lib Dem 459 (37% +3% on last time), Green 387 (31% +10% on last time) (No Other candidate this time -2%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 72 (6%) on a swing of 3.5% from Lib Dem to Green (10.5% from Con to Lib Dem)

Duke’s on Sefton (Con defence)
Result: Con 790 (26% -10% on last time), Lab 417 (14% -2% on last time), Lib Dem 1,680 (56% +28% on last time), UKIP 69 (2% -14% on last time), Green 45 (1% -4% on last time)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 890 (30%) on a swing of 19% from Con to Lib Dem

Ergemont North on Copeland (Lab defence)
Result: Con 321 (48% +23% on last time), Lab 354 (52% +9% on last time) (No Green candidate this time -8%, No Independent candidate this time -24%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 33 (4%) on a swing of 7% from Lab to Con

Harry Hayfield



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In what has been a crazy political year Paddy Power now offering the daftest bet of all

Wednesday, October 25th, 2017

Even if there was a vacancy there’s not enough time

Mike Smithson




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Why Theresa May’s Maidenhead could be the next parliamentary by-election in a CON held seat

Friday, October 20th, 2017

Two days ago in my post on why there would not be a general election until 2022 I observed that there have been very few by elections in CON held seats in recent times. Tory MPs have been a lot healthier than LAB ones.

What CON by-elections defences there have been have been caused by other factors such as the weird resignation by the then shadow Home Secretary David Davis in 2008 so he could fight his own seat for reasons that have long since been forgotten.

In the current Parliament apart from possible actions by the courts which we cannot speculate upon my suggestion for the first by-election in a Tory seat would be Maidenhead.

This was retained by the Prime Minister with a whopping vote share of 64.8% on June 8th with LAB on 19.3% and the LDs on 11.1%.

Against the national trend which was an average vote increase of 5.8% by Tory candidates TMay’s vote went down by 1.1% but it still looks totally solid. It would be hard to see a by-election there as anything other than a CON hold with perhaps a reduced majority on a lower turnout.

    In spite of her survival since the conference TMay’s position remains precarious and wasn’t helped yesterday by another PMQs mauling at the hands of Corbyn.

If she is replaced as leader then like the former PMs of late who quit between general elections, Tony Blair and David Cameron, it is hard to see her wanting to continue as an MP.

In any case we are all aware of her diabetes and it is always possible that her departure could be prompted by her health rather than any political move.

Remember that morning last April when we were all standing by for an announcement from Downing Street of what turned out to be the general election call. The speculation for a time then, led by Sky’s Adam Boulton, was that she was going because of her health.

Whatever it is hard to see her sticking at Number 10 until the next election and there must be a high chance of a by-election.

Mike Smithson