Archive for the 'Coalition' Category

h1

Corbyn now Betfair favourite to be PM after TMay

Friday, June 16th, 2017

The LAB leader now a 21% as BoJo chances edge downwards

With BoJo’s comments on fire-brigade cuts while he was Mayor going viral on social media and the assured visit to the Grenfell Tower scene by Corbyn yesterday there’s been a reaction on the PM after TMay betting market on Betfair.

The LAB leader, rated as a 21% shot has now edged to the favourite slot as punters evaluate the impact of the tragedy on the current precarious political scene.

It is conceivable that TMay doesn’t get a majority for her Queen’s Speech next week and even if she does her hold on power will inevitably be very fragile.

One aspect of the DUP’s position that we haven’t taken into account is how keeping TMay in power will impact on their political position in Northern Ireland. Could the Tories be too toxic for them?

Mike Smithson




h1

The Queen’s Speech timing: the product of what Lynton would call the “coalition of chaos”

Thursday, June 15th, 2017

It is extraordinary to reflect that just a week ago this morning all looked set for a certain CON victory with the betting being on a majority of about 80 seats. Everything seemed set for TMay win a workable Commons majority and a victory in her own right.

The polls were almost united in their view and the only clouds on the horizon were the then discredited YouGov model and Survation’s numbers which were dismissed as an outlier.

It appeared that the Lynton Crosby lines on “strong and stable” government and the risk of a “coalition of chaos” had resonated and once again the Aussie campaign manager was about to chalk up another success.

For SIR Lynton has seen enough numbers and elections to know that competence and certainty are things that matter enormously as people come to cast their vote. The same themes had worked at GE15 and it was going to work again.

    This is why, a week on, the current situation is so dangerous for the Tories. Once a perception of competence is lost it could be mighty difficult to win back.

All this is epitomised in the timing of the Queen’s Speech which has become central to TMay’s effort to secure a deal that will ensure that the DUP’s 10 MPs go into the division lobbies with the Tories to ensure that the minority government surmounts its first hurdle.

For as long as this government survives every Commons vote is going to be on a knife edge. This is all so reminiscent of the 1974-79 Labour government where Harold Wilson and then Jim Callaghan had at least started with a theoretical majority in the October 1974 election. The Labour brand was so trashed during that period that it was 18 years after GE1979 before it was returned to power again.

Mike Smithson




h1

I’m struggling to make sense of the results, but if Mrs May doesn’t quit as PM a Tory MP will go all Leo Amery at her very soon

Friday, June 9th, 2017

TSE



h1

If you’re not mentally prepared for Corbyn as Prime Minister, then you should be.

Friday, June 9th, 2017

TSE



h1

Remember how at EURef Newcastle and Sunderland gave us the first pointers as to what was to come

Thursday, June 8th, 2017

What can we expect from tonight first declarations?

Newcastle East

Houghton & Sunderland South

On June 23rd lat year it was Newcastle which pipped Sunderland from its usual slot as being the first place to declare. It was those two outcomes that for me and many other punters convinced that the LEAVE price – then at more than 2/1 was the value bet.

Tonight it is these two big NE cities which will be trying to be the first to declare with the seats above.

Both are solid LAB and a loss of either would be a huge sensation. But the Tory vote in both could provide a good pointer to how the blues are progressing in Labour’s heartlands. A significant swing in either seat could make the night very worrying for Team Corbyn. Easy holds, though, could ease the concerns.

The exit poll comes out at 10pm. These results should be declared during the follow hour.

Mike Smithson




h1

Punters stick with the ICM/ComRes view of the election – not YouGov/Survation

Monday, June 5th, 2017

If the gamblers are right then it’s a 70+ CON majority

Two new lots of polling data out so far today reflecting the two sides of the polling divide that characterises GE2017.

The latest ICM, with its post-GE2015 turnout model has CON with a 11% lead which would see TMay meet her goal of having an increased majority. The YouGov model continues to have the lead at just 4% and seat projections suggesting that the Tories will be 20 seats short of a majority with almost exactly the same total as David Cameron achieved in 2010.

Got to feel sorry for pollsters. If their numbers are close together they’re accused of herding – if not they’re said to be “all over the place

Meanwhile a fierce debate goes on over which has got this right. Punters, however, are not phased by the polls showing a declining CON lead and continue to risk their money on a substantial CON majority.

Latest CON seats spreads SportingIndex 368-374 Spreadex 364-370

Latest LAB spreads SportingIndex 196-202 and Spreadex 198-204

Latest LD spreads SportingIndex 11-13 and Spreadex 11-13.5

Expect more polling in the next few hours.

Me – I’m not changing my big betting position that the Tories will below 393 seats.

Mike Smithson




h1

Author & ex-political journalist, Robert Harris, suggests TMay might be making Heath’s 1974 mistake

Tuesday, May 30th, 2017

During the big C4/Sky News event last night the best-selling author and former political journalist, Robert Harris, posted the above tweet pointing to the similarities between TMay going to the country three years early and Heath’s calling of the February 1974 election with a possible year and a half still to go.

At the time in 1974 the country was going through the oil crisis which was about to be exacerbated by a miners’ strike. The campaign slogan was “Who Governs Britain. This, from Wikipedia, is what Heath told the country in his broadcast after calling the election:

“Do you want a strong Government which has clear authority for the future to take decisions which will be needed? Do you want Parliament and the elected Government to continue to fight strenuously against inflation? Or do you want them to abandon the struggle against rising prices under pressure from one particularly powerful group of workers …

This time of strife has got to stop. Only you can stop it. It’s time for you to speak — with your vote. It’s time for your voice to be heard — the voice of the moderate and reasonable people of Britain: the voice of the majority. It’s time for you to say to the extremists, the militants, and the plain and simply misguided: we’ve had enough. There’s a lot to be done. For heaven’s sake, let’s get on with it.”

The Conservative manifesto, with echoes of today, claimed the Labour opposition had been taken over by “a small group of power-hungry trade union leaders“, who were “committed to a left-wing programme more dangerous and more extreme than ever before in its history”.

All but one poll during the campaign had the Tories ahead and, indeed, the party finished with most votes. Wilson’s LAB, however, had most seats and was able to form a minority government.

By far the weakest part of TMay’s current position is why we are having an election at all. She told Paxman last night it was because the LDs (a party then of just 9 MPs) wanted a second referendum. Eh?

Still I think that TMay is going to win but then in February 1974, my first election while working for BBC News, I believed that Heath would be returned with a large majority.

Mike Smithson




h1

The first two polls of tonight show the Tory lead halving in a month

Saturday, May 27th, 2017

These polls should relax the Tories following the YouGov poll earlier on this week, but the general poll trend is a reflection of the piss poor campaign the Tories have led, especially over social care changes.

Both pollsters see Mrs  May’s rating taking a hit, but she’s still ahead of Jeremy Corbyn on most metrics, and further ahead of where David Cameron was of Ed Miliband

I’m expecting quite a few more polls this evening.

TSE