Archive for the 'Coalition' Category

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During February the Tories have defended NINE local by-elections – they only managed to retain TWO

Friday, February 24th, 2017

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Summary : February 2017

February local by election aggregate % vote shares with changes on last time
CON 24%-5
LAB 24%-5
LD 28%+18
UKIP 9%-6
OTH 9%+3

Liberal Democrats 7,162 votes (28% +18% on last time) winning 7 seats (+4 seats on last time)
Labour 6,305 votes (24% -5% on last time) winning 5 seats (+1 seat on last time)
Conservatives 6,255 votes (24% -5% on last time) winning 2 seats (-7 seats on last time)
United Kingdom Independence Party 2,468 votes (9% -6% on last time) winning 1 seat (-1 seat on last time)
Other Parties 2,337 votes (9% +3% on last time) winning 2 seats (+3 seats on last time)
Green Party 959 votes (4% -2% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 seat on last time)
Independents 493 votes (2% -4% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 seat on last time)
Liberal Democrat lead of 857 (4%) on a swing from Lab to Lib Dem of 11.5% (No swing from Con to Lab)

GAINS
Liberal Democrats GAIN Brinsworth and Catcliffe on Rotherham from Lab
Labour GAIN Dinnington on Rotherham from UKIP
Liberal Democrats GAIN Fairford North on Cotswold from Con
Liberal Democrats GAIN Waterside on North Norfolk from Con
United Kingdom Independence Party GAIN Great and Little Oakley on Tendring from Ind
Bollington First GAIN Bollington on Cheshire East from Con
Green Party GAIN Lydbrook and Ruardean on Forest of Dean from UKIP
Residents for Uttlesford GAIN two seats in Elsenham and Henham on Uttlesford from Lib Dem
Liberal Democrats GAIN Emmbrook on Wokingham from Con
Labour GAIN Winklebury on Basingstoke and Deane from Con
Liberal Democrats GAIN Barton on Kettering from Con
Liberal Democrats GAIN Charterlands on South Hams from Con



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If Labour don’t take the lead in the polls, is that how John McDonnell topples Jeremy Corbyn?

Friday, February 24th, 2017

If Corbyn is toppled will it be one of his inner circle that wields the dagger?

Earlier on this month John McDonnell gave an interview in which he said the polls will reverse in the next 12 months. We’ve already seen articles saying that McDonnell is taking over. If McDonnell feels that Labour aren’t going to improve, he might end up saying to Corbyn he should stand down.

This chart shows Labour’s continuing decline, surely the likes of McDonnell and Diane Abbott (who has start rebelling against Corbyn) will realise the party they love is at the risk an extinction level election, and will urge Corbyn to stand aside, for the greater good.

If the PLP want to topple Corbyn they might need to start working with John McDonnell, after all it wasn’t just Brutus who was involved in the assassination of another JC, Julius Caesar.

TSE



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Brexit: We wuz robbed but is Tony the one to stop it.

Monday, February 20th, 2017

Don Brind on the Blair intervention

Like many 48 per centers I believe last year’s referendum victory for Leave was built on a mountain of mendacity, epitomised by that bus promising £350 million for the NHS.

So it was good to hear Tony Blair declare, in his speech to Open Britain last week, that Brexit “will not mean more money for the NHS but less; actually it probably means a wholesale rebalancing of our healthcare towards one based on private as much as public provision.”

I don’t trust Theresa May, now the zealous convert to Leave after being a virtually silent a Remain campaigner. So, again, I enjoyed Blair’s withering assault on her. “The Government are not masters of this situation. They’re not driving this bus. They’re being driven.”

So why did the speech leave me feeling uneasy? And why did Jenny Chapman, MP for Darlington and a member of the Shadow Brexit team tweet: “I defend Tony Blair as a great Labour leader who improved lives of my constituents. I do this a lot. His speech today won’t help.”

Blair says he accepts the result of the referendum and that “there is no widespread appetite to re-think.” He asserts that people voted without knowledge of the terms of Brexit. “As these terms become clear, it is their right to change their will. Our mission is to persuade them to do so.”

But the big question is how do we get from here to there? Who is best placed to get them to think again? Is Tony Blair somebody Leave voters will listen to?

They certainly won’t be listening to Ed Vulliamy in the Observer that” Corbyn and his MPs want to appease xenophobia in Labour heartlands, at whatever price of principle, to keep their seats warm at Westminster.

Such patronising tosh is not only unfair to Labour MPs, it part of the Brexit problem. “In politics, firstly, you have to earn the right to be heard” says Labour backbencher Wes Streeting in a wide-ranging New Statesman article that deserves to be as widely read as the Blair speech.

Streeting, a frequent Corbyn critic and a “Blairite” to leadership loyalists, represents Ilford North on the London Essex border which voted narrowly to Remain. He, nonetheless followed Jeremy Corbyn’s lead in voting to trigger Article 50. He explained his reasoning in a joint article with Chuka Umunna

Defying the referendum result, they say, would “deepen Labour and the country’s divisions and undermine our ability to build a coalition uniting the cities with the towns and country, the young with the old, immigrant with settled communities, the north with the south.
“We have to build this coalition in order to win an election to form a Labour government.”

The fact is that if Tony Blair’s dream of beating Brexit is to be realised it will Labour MPs who will do the hard graft of persuading Leave voters to think again.

Don Brind



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Losses for the LDs and Tories in latest local elections plus preview of one more contest tonight

Friday, February 17th, 2017

Bollington on Cheshire East (Con defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result: Bollington First 939 (51% +14%), Conservative 319 (17% -14%), Labour 239 (13% -8%), Liberal Democrat 198 (11% unchanged), Green 162 (9%, no candidate at last election)
Bollington First GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 620 (33%) on a swing of 14% from Conservative to Bolington First

St. Thomas on Dudley (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result: Labour 1,466 (61% +4%), United Kingdom Independence Party 653 (27% +5%), Conservative 249 (10% -6%), Green Party 52 (2% -2%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 813 (34%) on a swing of 0.5% from Labour to United Kingdom Independence Party

Burton on East Staffordshire (Lib Dem defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result: Liberal Democrat 271 (53% +6%), Labour 127 (25% -5%), United Kingdom Independence Party 60 (12%, no candidate at last election), Conservative 56 (11% -12%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 144 (28%) on a swong of 5.5% from Labour to Liberal Democrat

Lydbrook and Ruardean on Forest of Dean (Ind defence, elected as United Kingdom Independence Party)
Result: Green Party 360 (35% +19%), Conservative 248 (24% +7%), Labour 231 (23% +1%), United Kingdom Independence Party 113 (11% -10%), Liberal Democrat 67 (7%, no candidate at last election)
Green Party GAIN from Independent with a majority of 112 (11%) on a swing of 6% from Conservative to Green

Failsworth East on Oldham (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result: Labour 829 (58% +4%), Conservative 360 (25% +8%), United Kingdom Independence Party 166 (12% -12%), Green Party 49 (4% +1%), Liberal Democrat 16 (1% -1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 469 (33%) on a swing of 2% from Labour to Conservative

Elsenham and Henham on Uttlesford (Two Lib Dem defences, resignations of sitting members)
Result: Emboldened denotes elected
Residents for Uttlesford 834 E, 716 E (59%, no candidates at last election)
Liberal Democrats 316, 259 (23% -24%)
Conservatives 141, 120 (10% -11%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 68, 64 (5%, no candidates at last election)
Labour 39, 28 (3% -2%)
Green Party 8, 6 (1%, no candidates at last election)
Two Residents for Uttlesford GAINS from Liberal Democrats

Emmbrook on Wokingham (Con defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2016): Conservatives 48, Liberal Democrats 5, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 42)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Conservative 1,085 (38%), Liberal Democrat 1,074 (37%), United Kingdom Independence Party 447 (16%), Labour 287 (10%)
EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 55,272 (57%) LEAVE 42,229 (43%) on a turnout of 79%
Candidates duly nominated: Christopher Everett (Lab), Kevin Morgan (Con), Phil Ray (UKIP), Imogen Shepherd-Dubey (Lib Dem)
Weather at the close of polls: Cloudy but dry, 6°C
Estimate: Too close to call between Conservative and Liberal Democrat



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The first ComRes voting poll since before BREXIT finds significant Tory growth mostly at the expense of UKIP

Saturday, February 11th, 2017




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The Greens have the best YouGov party favourability ratings – Paul Nuttall’s UKIP the worst

Friday, February 3rd, 2017

As I indicated in last post I’m knocked out with after effects of a nasty cold and am feeling very sorry for my myself so won’t be doing much analysis.

We’ve now the the latest YouGov favourability ratings and the net figures for the parties appear in the chart.

The next section of the polling will be published over the weekend.

Mike Smithson




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More gloomy by-election news for UKIP and the LD surge continues

Friday, February 3rd, 2017

I’m just recovering from a nasty cold which has really knocked me out so not much time for analysis.

Mike Smithson




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A cartoon ahead of tomorrow’s historic Trump-May meeting in the US and tonight’s Local By-Election Preview

Thursday, January 26th, 2017

Kilmarnock East and Hurlford on East Ayrshire caused by the death of the sitting Scottish National Party member
Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 15, Labour 14, Conservatives 2, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Scottish National Party short by 2)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Scottish National Party 944, 1,126 (47%)
Labour 1,054, 984 (46%)
Conservative 326 (7%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 33,891 (59%) LEAVE 23,942 (41%) on a turnout of 63%
Candidates duly nominated: Fiona Campbell (SNP), Jon Herd (Con), Stephen McNamara (Scottish Libertarian Party), Dave Meecham (Lab)
Weather at the close of polls: Cloudy, but dry 0°C
Estimate: Scottish National Party HOLD

Compiled by Harry Hayfield