Archive for the 'Coalition' Category

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Local By-Election Results : October 12th 2017

Friday, October 13th, 2017

Inverurie and District on Aberdeenshire (Con defence)
Result of first preference votes: Conservative 1,672 (49% +13% on last time), Scottish National Party 1,146 (33% +5% on last time), Liberal Democrat 295 (9% -3% on last time), Labour 276 (8% +4% on last time), Green Party 56 (2%, no candidate last time) (No Independent candidate this time -20%)
Conservative lead of 526 (16%) on a swing of 4% from SNP to Con
Conservative HOLD elected on the fourth count

Rossal on Wyre (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 610 (50% +11% on last time), Conservative 427 (35% +5% on last time), Independent 180 (15% +7% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -24%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 183 (15%) on a swing of 3% from Con to Lab

Chapelford and Old Hall on Warrington (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 957 (55% +10% on last time), Conservative 353 (20% +2% on last time), Liberal Democrat 312 (18% -3% on last time), UKIP 86 (5% -5% on last time), Green Party 43 (2% -4% on last time)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 604 (35%) on a swing of 4% from Con to Lab

Stanley and Outwood East on Wakefield (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 1,353 (51% +2% on last time), Conservative 847 (32% +7% on last time), Liberal Democrat 165 (6% +2% on last time), Yorkshire Party 153 (6% +5% on last time), UKIP 136 (5% -17% on last time)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 506 (19%) on a swing of 2.5% from Lab to Con

Beigton on Sheffield (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 1,640 (49% +6% on last time), Liberal Democrat 899 (27% +21% on last time), Conservative 552 (16% -1% on last time), UKIP 212 (6% -19% on last time), Green Party 74 (2% -3% on last time) (No Others candidate this time -3%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 741 (22%) on a swing of 7.5% from Lab to Lib Dem

Hucknall North on Ashfield (Con defence)
Result: Ahfield Independents 1,329 (51% +38% on last time), Labour 629 (24% -7% on last time), Conservative 532 (20% -11% on last time), UKIP 66 (3% -15% on last time), Liberal Democrat 46 (2%, no candidate last time) (No Green Party candidate this time -7%)
Ashfield Independent GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 700 (27%) on a swing of 22.5% from Lab to Ashfield Independents (24.5% from Con to Ashfield Independents)

Bolehall on Tamworth (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 643 (53% +14% on last time), Conservative 561 (47% +12% on last time) (No UKIP candiate this time -21%, No Green Party candidate this time -5%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 82 (6%) on a swing of 1% from Con to Lab

Oxhey Hall and Hayling on Three Rivers (Con defence)
Result: Liberal Democrat 672 (41% +13% on last time), Conservative 461 (28% +2% on last time), Labour 428 (26% +3% on last time), UKIP 35 (2% -21% on last time), Green Party 31 (2%, no candidate last time)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 211 (13%) on a swing of 5.5% from Con to Lib Dem

Party Conference Index Scores
Liberal Democrats (+9.59%),
Labour (+8.52%),
Scottish National Party (+4.28%)
Green Party (+3.41%),
Conservative (+3.39%),
United Kingdom Independence Party (-13.12%),

Plaid Cymru (conference yet to be held)



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September 2017 and Third Quarter Local By-Election Summary

Thursday, October 5th, 2017

September 2017 Monthly Summary
Labour 18,824 votes (36.73% +8.66% on last time) winning 13 seats (+2 seats on last time)
Conservatives 14,074 votes (27.46% -4.34% on last time) winning 10 seats (-7 seats on last time)
Liberal Democrats 5,041 votes (9.84% +1.53% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 seat on last time)
Green Party 4,420 votes (8.62% +0.31% on last time) winning 2 seats (+2 seats on last time)
Scottish National Party 3,345 votes (6.53% +3.23% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Independent candidates 3,132 votes (6.11% +0.39% on last time) winning 3 seats (+2 seats on last time)
United Kingdom Independence Party 1,156 votes (2.26% -10.75% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 on last time)
Other Party candidates 983 votes (1.92% +0.44% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Local Independent candidates 278 votes (0.54% +0.54% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Labour lead of 4,750 votes (9.27%) on a swing of 6.5% from Con to Lab

Conference Index
Liberal Democrats (September 21st 2017): +9.59% on last time
Labour (September 28th 2017): +8.52% on last time

Third Quarter Summary (June 22nd – September 28th 2017)
Labour 40,820 votes (37.86% +9.70% on last time) winning 31 seats (+8 on last time) from 67 candidates (+5 on last time)
Conservatives 31,144 votes (28.88% -1.88% on last time) winning 27 seats (-6 on last time) from 69 candidates (unchanged on last time)
Liberal Democrats 12,557 votes (11.65% +1.35% on last time) winning 6 seats (-1 on last time) from 56 candidates (+17 on last time)
Green Party 8,223 votes (7.63% +0.35% on last time) winning 2 seats (+2 on last time) from 37 candidates (+1 on last time)
Independent candidates 6,443 votes (5.98% +0.64% on last time) winning 5 seats (unchanged on last time) from a minimum of 20 candidates
Scottish National Party 4,240 votes (3.93% +2.15% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) from 4 candidates (unchanged on last time)
United Kingdom Independence Party 1,931 votes (1.79% -11.01% from last time) winning 0 seats (-3 on last time) from 24 candidates (-22 on last time)
Local Independent candidates 1,302 votes (1.21% -1.43% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) from a minimum of 9 candidates
Plaid Cymru 101 votes (0.09% +0.09% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) from 1 candidate (+1 on last time)
Other Party candidates 1,065 votes (0.99% +0.10% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) from a minimum of 6 candidates
Labour lead of 9,676 votes (8.98%) on a swing of 5.79% from Con to Lab

Estimated House of Commons (UNS Forecast):
Lab 333, Con 254, SNP 25, Lib Dems 15, Plaid 3, Green 1, Speaker 1, NI Parties 18 (Lab majority of 16)



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Not quite the Thursday newspaper headlines that Team TMay had planned

Thursday, October 5th, 2017

This is now all about her survival

Once the prime minister had decided to try to battle on during the weekend after the election the speech at the end of the Conservative conference four months on was always going to be the biggest challenge.

Alas events conspired to make it something of a disaster as the headlines in today’s papers reflect. The question now is whether she is going to continue to struggle on or will she decide to call it a day?

She is very much in the hands of the party’s MPs and what the mood is amongst them when they return to Westminster next week.

You can get about 3/1 her going this year which I think is about right. The price hasn’t moved that much since the speech.

The next few weeks are going to be crucial.

My view is that that it won’t get as far as a confidence motion. If she decides to go she will want to do it on her own terms.

Maybe she and Phillip ought to spend the weekend walking in Snowdonia?

Mike Smithson




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And so to Manchester where all the focus is on Mrs. May and Mr. Johnson

Sunday, October 1st, 2017

Two bookies now make the ex-mayor favourite

Mike Smithson




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In head-to-heads Johnson comfortably beats main contenders in latest YouGov CON members’ poll

Friday, September 29th, 2017

CON members’ take grim view of party’s GE17 campaign

Tory members’ complacent of JC’s chance of becoming PM

Mike Smithson




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The Lord Adonis guide to predicting elections: The best leader wins – nothing else matters

Saturday, September 9th, 2017

The LAB peer and former cabinet minister, Andrew Adonis, has a fascinating essay in the latest edition of Prospect on the best guide to election forecasting. His conclusion is encapsulated in the headline above – the party with the leader perceived to be best wins and nothing else matters.

He opens by recalling a Guardian article by Jonathan Freedland when Brown was PM and when many in the Labour party were demanding a new debate on “the issues”

Freedland cautioned that “people do not believe in ideas: they believe in people who believe in ideas.” The moment I read those words, a penny dropped, and my conviction has become stronger with each passing year I have spent in politics, that the battle of ideas in politics—indeed in life—cannot be comprehended separately from the people who hold and espouse those ideas.

This is a view I have long espoused noting that the leader ratings in the elections where the polls were out on voting intention (1992, and 2015 for instance) were a better guide to the eventual outcomes.

Adonis has produced the above ratings on every UK and US election since 1944. The numbers for each main party leader/presidential are derived not from polling but his personal assessment. He notes:-

“. Instead, “leadership points” are given to the two individual leaders contending for power on a 15-point scale. Up to 10 points are awarded for raw leadership talent, and up to another five for fitting with the times. The “winner” is the candidate with most points.”

His ratings appear broadly about right though, no doubt, many would quibble.

So his overall verdict that only in one of all the US and UK election since 1944 did the person perceived as not the best leader win is derived from his own numbers. That does not make the analysis or the main point wrong.

Elections are about choosing those we wish to lead us and if we are broadly satisfied with someone on that count then we are generally more willing to accept policy positions that we are less happy about. We see this in those polling tests when we can observe changed levels of support for an policy if we link a leader’s name to the proposal. Thus in the run-up to GE2015 the EdM plan to bring in energy price controls attracted greater levels of support when his name was not linked to the plan.

Mike Smithson




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How the Tories are still paying the price for Cameron’s failure to win a majority in 2010

Tuesday, September 5th, 2017

The coalition concessions continue to shape Britain’s politics

On May 11th 2010, my birthday as it happens, David Cameron was able to enter Downing Street even though he’d failed to win a majority as a result of the coalition deal with Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems.

Two aspects of the Tory concessions required to make that happen are still very much in place – the Fixed-Term Term Parliament Act and the doubling of the number of LD members of the House of Lords.

The former played a big part in April when TMay announced her general election move putting a date more than seven weeks on. According to John Rentoul in the Indy this was set so far ahead in the expectation that Labour wouldn’t back the election call. In the event of this happening the plan was for an amendment to the FPTP act to be pushed through both houses of Parliament specifically stating that the date should be June 8th.

Arguably that extraordinarily long campaign and the greater exposure it put on Mrs May was one of the reasons why a renewed majority was not forthcoming.

The second coalition concession more than doubling the number of LD peers from just over 50 to more than a hundred still dominates the political arithmetic in the upper house.

The intention had been that this move was to create temporary cover for the situation for the period leading up to the reform of the the Lords which both the Tories in 2010 and LDs were committed to.

Lords reform did not happen because of the Tory back bench rebellion and the LD peers are still there.

The Salisbury Convention that the Lords should not stand in the way of a government implementing its manifesto commitments doesn’t apply because of the failure of TMay to retain a CON majority.

Getting the EU bill through is going to be even more difficult because of what Cameron had to agree to in order to get Gordon Brown out of Downing Street.

Mike Smithson




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Local By-Elections Review : August 17th 2017

Friday, August 18th, 2017

Park on Peterborough (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 1,713 (50% unchanged on last time), Conservative 1,375 (40% +5% on last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 176 (5% -3% on last time), Liberal Democrat 109 (3% +1% on last time), Green Party 83 (2% -2% on last time)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 338 (10%) on a swing from Lab to Con of 2.5%

St. Mary’s on Forest Heath (Con defence)
Result: Conservative 338 (50% +11% on last time), Labour 276 (41% +9% on last time), Green Party 60 (9%, no candidate last time) No UKIP candidate (28% last time)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 62 (9%) on a swing of 1% from Lab to Con

Riverside (Con defence) and Southcourt (Lib Dem defence) on Aylesbury Vale
Riverside
Result: Conservative 301 (35% +4% on last time), Liberal Democrat 286 (33% +17% on last time), Labour 210 (24% +6% on last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 48 (6% -30% on last time), Green Party 23 (3%, no candidate last time)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 15 (2%) on a swing of 6.5% from Con to Lib Dem

Southcourt
Result: Liberal Democrat 456 (37% +8% on last time), Conservative 386 (32% +10% on last time), Labour 270 (22% -1% on last time), Green Party 58 (5% -1% on last time), United Kingdom Independence Party 54 (4% -17% on last time)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 70 (5%) on a swing of 1% from Lib Dem to Con