Archive for the 'Commons seats spreads' Category

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The spreads move even more sharply to the Tories

Monday, November 11th, 2019


SpprtingIndex

The mood on the spread betting markets this morning has been sharply to the Tories with both LAB and the LDs seeing their projected seats numbers drop markedly.

This follows a weekend of good polling news for Johnson with LAB and the LDs seeing disappointing drops in their poll shares. The picture is all of Johnson heading for a comfortable working majority.

On Friday evening, as I reported here, I made my first big spread bet of the elections – a SELL of LAB seats at 210. As can be seen the sell level is now down below 200 and I could cash out of my position at a nice profit.

The LDs have no doubt been hit by the drop of 3% in the latest BMG poll and are in the mid teens.

What has happened is that Johnson seems to have stopped the flow of GE2017 CON remainers to the LDS. The majority are are sticking with their choice last time.

Of course everything, even more so in LD targets is down to what happens in individual seats and how the campaigning is going.

Mike Smithson




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Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.

Saturday, November 9th, 2019

YouGov English regional polling has LAB in 3rd place in the Eastern region the South East and South West

We haven’t yet looked at the series of English regional polls that YouGov carried out last month and has only just published them.  This is the first time I can recall this form of polling being carried out across England and the results help us to see where parties are doing well.

The South West has always been a key battleground and where the LDs got almost wiped out at GE2015. Swinson’s team will be encouraged by the numbers that have an 8% CON to LD swing. The Tories are down 10 on GE17 while the LDs are up six. LAB, down 13%, seems to be most hurt by the Brexit Party’s 13% which is 12% up on what UKIP did there last time.

In the South East, which excludes London, the Tories are down 13%, LDs up 12% with LAB down 16%.  Those are big changes and it is another indicator how unpredictable December 12th is going to be.

The East of England has CON down 10% with the LDs up 10% and LAB down 16%. That could lead to a fair number of seat changes.

In the West Midlands there are some awful numbers for LAB which is down 20% on GE17 with the Tories down 6%. The LDs are up 10%.
Changes on GE2017 in the East Midlands see CON down 6%, LAB down 19% with the LDs up 11%.

There’s a similar pattern in Yorkshire & Humber with CON down 7% compared with LAB down 20%.  The LDs are up 11%.

In the North West the Tories are down just 3% with LAB down a whopping 25% and the LDs up 12%.  In the North East it is as bad for Corbyn’s party down 23% with CON down 8% and the LDs up 10%.

Of course things can change over the next four and a half weeks as we saw with LAB’s recovery at GE17.

My bet on SportingIndex was to sell LAB at 210 seats – that’s now down to 207.

Mike Smithson




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The spread markets the Tories down a touch but still heading for a majority

Thursday, November 7th, 2019


SportingIndex

The Greens up following the United for Remain moves

Until we get the final outcome I’m planning to do regular posts on the Commons Seats spread-betting market from SportingIndex. This will act as a useful reference to how things have changed and how punters are seeing things.

What I like about these markets is this gets right down to the general election outcome in terms of seats. This is a form of betting for those ready to risk what could be quite a lot of money. For with spread-betting the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose.

Mike Smithson




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Punters continue to sell CON seats on the spreads – now down to 102 majority with Spreadex

Friday, May 26th, 2017

The latest polling has caused a big sell of CON seats on the spread markets. With
Spreadex it is now 373-379 seats. At the weekend the buy level was more than 400.

SportingIndex has it slightly higher at 373-379 which means that my sell bet at 393 placed on Saturday night is now showing a nice profit.

What’s nice about this form of betting is that you can take and pocket your profits well before the election has taken place.

The risk at the moment is that other pollsters might show a larger CON lead which could cause the price to move up.

Mike Smithson




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Tories heading for 124 seat majority according to spread betting markets

Thursday, May 25th, 2017

With the campaign starting to get underway again it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves that we have a dearth of up to date polling. There’ve only three national surveys that were carried out after the CON manifesto launch last week. These have been ICM and the Survation online poll for the Mail on Sunday and the phone one for Good Morning Britain.

We’ve also had the YouGov Wales poll which had LAB with a bigger margin over CON than EdM’s party achieved at GE2015. The YouGov S Times poll was only partly carried out after the manifesto launch with the later dementia tax narrative.

Latest CON seats spreads SportingIndex 383-390 Spreadex 383-389

Latest LAB spreads both SportingIndex and Spreadex 172-178

Latest LD spreads both SportingIndex 14-17 and Spreadex 13.5-16.5

The latest spread betting markets suggest that the Tories are heading for a 124 seat majority – a bit down on its peak but still incredibly comfortable.

The spread betting market are where the serious punters with deep pockets generally do their gambling. Party seat numbers are traded like stocks and shares with the top figure being being the buy price and the bottom one the sell price.

Hopefully we’ll see some new polls fairly soon – maybe overnight. My guess is that the Tories will benefit from the inevitable huge media presence that Mrs. May had during the campaign suspension. She wasn’t party politicking but this should help the blue causes.

The suspension has, though, rather thwarted the Tory plans try to “remind” us of some of Mr. Corbyn’s historical links.

Mike Smithson




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CON drops 9 seats on the spread-betting markets following the first post manifesto polling

Sunday, May 21st, 2017

Spread betting is the form of gambling for those with deep pockets that are ready to take big risks and are attracted by the idea that the more you are right the more you win.

Unfortunately the converse is the case. The more you are wrong the more you lose so developments like the latest post-manifesto polling are being keenly watched by spread betting punters.

For most of the campaign the Conservative spreads have been hovering around the 400 Mark suggesting a massive majority of 170 or more.

That’s now moved a notch backwards following the publication overnight of the Survation and YouGov polling. The latter survey was carried out on Thursday and Friday so only partially reflected the post manifesto reaction.

My guess is that the downward trend could continue if other polls indicate the same trend. If not then we could see a reversal.

Mike Smithson




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LDs now down ten seats on the Commons spread markets since the campaign started

Monday, May 8th, 2017

The biggest loser on the betting markets since the election was called have been the Lib Dems. The opening prices were at 26 to 29 seats following the widespread assumption that the party would be in a position to appeal to remain voters from either Labour or the Conservatives.

Even last Thursday, local election day, the Lib Dems were on 24 SELL and 27 BUY. Although they put on votes on that day they saw a net loss of seats which has prompted a mass selling.

With both SpreadEx and Sporting Index they are now at 16-19 seats.

You can see a situation on June 8th where the party increases its vote share substantially from GE2015 but struggles to achieve seat gains.

I am waiting until we know what has happened with the Crown Prosecution Service which is considering bringing charges against GE2015 CON agents and candidates following the CON expenses investigation.

If this happens it will have a big impact in the seats concerned most of which were previously Lib Dem.

Mike Smithson




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The final spread levels on general election day had a CON lead of 19 seats, 80 seats short of what actually happened

Friday, June 5th, 2015

May 7th 2015: The afternoon when CON seat buyers panicked

A lot has been written about the predictive nature of betting markets – a theory I do not subscribe to.

Just look at how the Commons seats spreads moved on general election day and the comparison with the actual result.

My understanding is that there was a huge panic on the afternoon of May 7th which led to a huge amount of selling by punters who had long CON buy and LAB sell positions. This led to a change in the prices reducing the CON lead on the market from 25 seats to 19 seats.

As we all know the election produced a CON seat lead of 99 seats and an overall majority.

Mike Smithson