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Category: Commons seats spreads

CON drops 9 seats on the spread-betting markets following the first post manifesto polling

CON drops 9 seats on the spread-betting markets following the first post manifesto polling

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CON spreads down 9 on @SportingIndex 383-390 https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 … … … … … … …& Spreadex 384-391 https://t.co/WTy5ixtSxJ … … … … … … — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2017 Spread betting is the form of gambling for those with deep pockets that are ready to take big risks and are attracted by the idea that the more you are right the more you win. Unfortunately the converse is the case. The more you are wrong the more you…

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LDs now down ten seats on the Commons spread markets since the campaign started

LDs now down ten seats on the Commons spread markets since the campaign started

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GE2017 seat spreads from @SportingIndex . CON 396-401LAB 152-158LD 16-19UKIP 0.1-1GRN 1-2SNP 44-47 https://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 … … … … — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2017 Latest Spreadex Commons seats spreadsCON 395-41LAB 152-158LD 16-19UKIP 0.1-1GRN 0.75-1.75SNP 44-47https://t.co/m9B2DFvQv3 … … … … — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2017 The biggest loser on the betting markets since the election was called have been the Lib Dems. The opening prices were at 26 to 29 seats following the widespread assumption that the party…

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The final spread levels on general election day had a CON lead of 19 seats, 80 seats short of what actually happened

The final spread levels on general election day had a CON lead of 19 seats, 80 seats short of what actually happened

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May 7th 2015: The afternoon when CON seat buyers panicked CON lead on @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 spreads down 6 today – now 19 seats pic.twitter.com/l3SVpTf2cj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 7, 2015 A lot has been written about the predictive nature of betting markets – a theory I do not subscribe to. Just look at how the Commons seats spreads moved on general election day and the comparison with the actual result. My understanding is that there was a huge panic…

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The SNP continues to be the big mover in the commons seats’ spread markets – up ten seats in five weeks

The SNP continues to be the big mover in the commons seats’ spread markets – up ten seats in five weeks

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SNP continues to surge on Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR GE15 commons spread market pic.twitter.com/F015XHOw9i — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 2, 2015 The continuation of strong polling for the SNP before Christmas has reinforced the move upwards in the latest spread prices from Sporting Index. It is now exactly ten seats higher than it was in the last week in November. Clearly this is driven by the polls and the absence of bad news for Sturgeon and her party. The fact that…

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SportingIndex cuts the UKIP spread again in effort to entice elusive purple buyers

SportingIndex cuts the UKIP spread again in effort to entice elusive purple buyers

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CON seats up UKIP seat down in today's Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR Commons seats spread prices pic.twitter.com/LL0mEvf6fQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 11, 2014 Meanwhile the CON spread gets even closer to LAB I’m just on the train back from London after having a fascinating chat with the guy who runs the political spread markets at Sporting Index. This is the form of betting that I like the most because it is all about numbers and the more you are right the…

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At GE2010 political gamblers and the bookies seriously understimated LAB

At GE2010 political gamblers and the bookies seriously understimated LAB

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Those who “bought” LAB seats made a packet About once a month, it seems, like this morning I get called by a journalist who wants to know whether the general election betting prices reflect over-optimism by Tory supporters about their party’s projects. What had happened last time he asked? The theory we have heard so many times before: Those with the money to risk on the spread betting markets are probably richer and, “therefore”, Tory This prompted me to dig…

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The great GE 2015 divide: CON 57pc chance of a majority or LAB an 81pc one

The great GE 2015 divide: CON 57pc chance of a majority or LAB an 81pc one

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One thing’s for sure: They can’t both be right Nine days ago the prominent Oxford political scientist, Dr. Stephen Fisher, produced what appeared to be a startling new forecast for GE2015 that gave the Conservatives a 57% chance of winning an overall majority. Last night the ex-Cambridge mathematician, Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus fame, issued his latest monthly forecast based on a polling average applied to his well known and widely used Commons seat model. This pointed to Labour having…

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Might UNS be the best guide after all?

Might UNS be the best guide after all?

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What’s the best way to model the Lib Dem surge? This has been an election campaign like no other, with the PM contender debates dominating coverage. While the Lib Dems have usually increased their showing in the polls over the course of a campaign, the double-digit increases are unprecedented in such a short period at such a crucial time. The problem in trying to predict the election outcome is as always how to translate votes into seats. We have rightly…

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