Archive for the 'Hillary Clinton' Category

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There could be double trouble for the markets if Trump does manage to win

Friday, October 28th, 2016

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Adam Jepsen on how markets might reaction to Trump doing it

At the moment, it looks like Hillary Clinton is firmly priced-in to be the next President and that might be a reasonable assumption. However, the markets appear to be far too complacent with regards to the risk of Donald Trump becoming President.

In fact, during the whole campaign the markets have been unfazed by the Republican.

While the US dollar did strengthen after Clinton had a solid first Presidential TV debate there hasn’t been a great deal of movement.

Looking back at the nominations, the markets didn’t bat an eyelid as Trump worked his way through the other Republican contenders.

Two Key Short-Term Trading Problems with a Trump Win

The markets view a Hillary win as the best result. Therefore many investors will have two immediate problems if the Trumps get the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Firstly, with Hillary looking to be firmly priced-in, a Trump win would mean that many positions are going to be quickly unwound.

There could be some quick selling of the dollar, Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ as investors get out of, or even reverse, their positions.

Secondly, investors also have to react to what the new Presidency actually means. Trying to gauge a Trump Presidency is like looking into an opaque crystal ball.

Given that the markets can be skittish and short-term-ist at the best of times they won’t like this high level of uncertainty. The selling could be somewhere between brisk and panic.

Not All One Way Traffic

Of course, because the markets can be rather short-term-ist, even if Trump wins, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to do too much damage in the immediate-term.

Therefore, even if the markets sell off, and depending upon his ‘winning’ rhetoric, it’s easy to see the markets make a significant recovery within one or two weeks of the election.

The Bookmakers and Polls Do Get it Wrong

There are certainly trading opportunities coming up but investors need to think about the risks, particularly if the markets take flight.

Anyone long of the dollar or US stocks should be very careful. There is a genuine risk of a rapid sell off.

Again, it looks like we’ll have another Clinton in the White House but Trump is not dead and buried.

The bookies have him at 5/1 and that’s a tempting price in a two horse race.

It’s a particularly large price when Trump is only 3-6% behind in most of the polls and the same polls often show 5-10% of voters are still undecided.

Also, we should not forget that UK referendum was a similarly close and contentious two horse race.

On 23 June the bookmarkers offered up to 9/1 on the UK to vote for Brexit. Anyone putting £10 on Brexit would have won £90, and got their £10 back, when the UK voted to leave the EU.

As always, investors need to assess the risks and their downside before they trade.

Adam Jepsen is Founder of FinancialSpreads.com



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The big hope for Trump now is that there will be a polling fail as large as in the UK at GE2015

Thursday, October 27th, 2016

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But the signs from US early voting seems to back up the polls

Twelve days to go before the US elects Barack Obama’s successor and so far at least the polling both national and in the key swing states suggests a return to the White House after a gap of 16 years for Hillary Clinton. This time, of course, as President not as First Lady.

Following the wobble in August and September ahead of the first TV debate her polling position has looked strong. Extraordinarily she has been the betting favourite to be next President ever since the markets were opened immediately after Obama’s re-election in 2012. Now she is rated by punters as an 85%+ chance.

Of course polling can be wrong and we all remember that night eighteen months ago when Ed Milliband looked as though he might be taking a trip to the Palace the following day. It was not to be and interestingly the polling under estimate of the Tory position then was almost exactly the same as the gap now in the US national polls.

All the post election reports of GE2015 suggested that the postal voting was running strongly for the Tories. Information on this is very restricted in the UK and, indeed, it is illegal to reveal what data there is.

That is different from the US where we are getting quite a lot of news from various states which broadly back up the polls. It’s estimated that 40% of the votes in this election will have been cast before polling day.

But I’m not ruling anything out. I’ll only believe that Trump has failed when sufficient numbers are in on November 9th.

Mike Smithson




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Hillary Clinton is winning this election because it has become a referendum on Donald Trump

Thursday, October 20th, 2016

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Trump is too thin-skinned for his own good

I’ve just got back from Brussels where Matthew Shaddick (the famous Shadsy of Ladbrokes) and I gave presentations about betting on politics which is almost certainly more advanced in the UK than anywhere else in the world.

Of course BREXIT is still a big focus but we sought to look forward to November 8th when America decides.

I’m just catching up with events in WH2016 and there’s lots of interesting insight and analysis in the US media today following the overnight third and final Clinton-Trump debate. I like this analysis from James Hohmann of the Washington Post picked up by PoliticalWire:-

“..“Clinton has spent the past few months trying to frame the election as a referendum on him. She’s succeeded, in part, because Trump’s favorite thing to talk about is, well, Trump. And he takes everything personally. Trump started his answer on the Supreme Court vacancy, for example, by noting that Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg said nasty things about him and claiming that she was ‘forced to apologize.’”

On the same theme Margaret Down New York Times observed:-

“. “In Trump’s warped fun-house mirror of a psyche, every rejection is a small death. That is why he harps on humiliation, that America is being humiliated on the world stage, that we are losing potency — a theme that resonates with angry voters who feel humiliated by their dwindling economic fortunes and angry about illegal immigrants and refugees swarming in who might be competition.

She (Clinton) once more proved adept at getting her rival’s goat: She again contended that he’s not a self-made man but a spoiled rich kid who was underwritten by his father and she accused him of choking on bringing up the issue of who would pay for the wall when he met with the president of Mexico.

Trump tried to stay calm, but he can never let go of a slight.”

Mike Smithson




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Great (Br)expectations, why Tories don’t want a snap election and the Clinton ’surge’ – this week’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast

Wednesday, October 5th, 2016

Can TMay really meet what voters are expecting from BREXIT

This week Kieran Pedley and his guests, Rob Vance and Matt Singh, on the PB/Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast focus mostly on the Tories and the big issue that looks set to determine whether TMay is successful – the BREXIT negotiations. The polling suggests that people are expecting a lot and is the new PM going to have to disappoint?

Then there’s all the talk of a snap election which the PM rules out at every opportunity. Finally, with WH2016 getting even closer, the team look at what’s apparently, a Clinton recovery.

You can follow this week’s guests at:
@keiranpedley
@robvance
@mattsingh_

The audio podcast version

Mike Smithson




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The impact of the 1st debate on WH2016 & the prospects now for Corbyn: this week’s PB/Polling Matters TV show/podcast

Wednesday, September 28th, 2016

After a big few days in both UK and US politics the PB/Polling Matters looks in detail at the impact of Corbyn’s re-election and where the Trump-Clinton battle stands now. How much importance should we attach to the instant post debate polling and in the UK is there any way that Corbyn can now move forward following his convincing leadership victory.

Joining Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) are Rob Vance (@robvance) and Leo (@leobarasi)

Rob highights the post debate polling showing a boost for Clinton and the team discuss whether it will last. Keiran explains why he hasn’t ruled Trump out yet and Leo sets out a strategy Trump might take in the final few weeks of the campaign. Keiran and Rob then look at which states will be important to watch out for in upcoming polls.

Leo then moves on to Ian Warren’s Labour leadership exit poll by YouGov and the team discuss what Labour MPs will do next. Keiran looks at recent ICM and ComRes polling and what it might mean for a future Labour policy offer as the party seeks to reunite and make up ground versus the Tories.

Finally, the team look ahead to Theresa May’s first Tory conference speech and what Corbyn has to do to look like a PM-in-waiting.
Follow this week’s guests at:

The audio podcast version.

Mike Smithson




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The WH2016 betting moves markedly back to Clinton after convincing first debate performance

Tuesday, September 27th, 2016

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On Betfair it is now Clinton 68% Trump 30%

Well over £3m was traded on Betfair as the market moves back to Hillary Clinton following a confident first debate performance against Donald Trump.

This is how Taegan Goddard of Political Wire summed up the night’s event:

“. Clinton was particularly effective when needling him on not releasing his tax returns, saying, “Why won’t he release his tax returns? Maybe he’s not as rich as he says he is.”

Trump couldn’t resist and in the resulting back-and-forth, he actually bragged about not paying his workers and not paying taxes. “It’s called business,” he repeatedly said.

On the substance of the debate, Clinton was the clear winner. She was controlled and methodical in making her case. Trump was constantly interrupting and spit out jumbled talking points that sounded like they came from some obscure corner of the Internet.

It wasn’t even close. Clinton crushed him…”

There are still two more Clinton Trump events as well as the VP debate and we must remember that in 2012 Romney hammered a lacklustre Obama in the first session but was beaten in the remaining two encounters. My guess is that Trump will learn from what’s happened and be better prepared next time.

The Clinton campaign will be clearly hoping that the narrative of the election will move back following a difficult period when everything seemed to be moving against her.

The next national and swing state voting polls are eagerly awaited.

Mike Smithson




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Tonight’s the big one in WH2016 and the betting could be turned on its head

Monday, September 26th, 2016

In previous White House Races the first debate has been seen as a sort of official start to hostilities. This is said to be the point when voters start to get engaged. This time that is much less so because public interest in the fight to succeed Obama has been far higher than anything we’ve seen before.

The fight for the GOP nomination saw the biggest TV debate audiences ever and records are expected to be broken overnight.

The reason is, of course, the ultimate marmite contender, the real estate magnate turned TV star and now GOP nominee, Donald Trump. He’s a totally divisive figure who is up against an opponent who arouses equal hostility or backing. Never before have the two contenders had such negative personal poll ratings.

As the CNN report at the top shows it is going to be very hard for TV viewers to avoid the debate because it is being carried on so many networks and no doubt Tuesday will be dominated by reporting, analysis and reaction.

For WH2016 punters there’s a good chance that things could look markedly different tomorrow. There’ll be the initial polling reaction on who won and this will be followed by new national and state voting polls over the next few days.

In past elections it is not who is deemed to have came out of the debate best that mattered but how they looked and what their responses said about them. In 2008 when McCain faced Obama a big and damaging story was that the Republican had not even looked at his opponent for the entire debate.

I am long on Trump after betting on him on July 25th on Betfair when his price was not as tight as it is today. I can’t decide whether to take my profits now or risk things changing post debate.

For UK viewers both Sky and BBC news will be showing this live.

Mike Smithson




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Punters continue to make Clinton a 60%+ chance even though the polling remains very tight

Friday, September 23rd, 2016

Just three days to go before the first WH2016 debate

This is, of course, all about the outcomes in the key swing states but the national surveys gives us a good overview of the election that takes place in just 46 days time.

The betting remains remarkably static and Hillary’s 9/11 incident seems to have worked its way out of the system.

Trump is dominant amongst white working class men while Clinton has the edge with women, non-white and those who went to college. The demographic splits have a BREXIT look about them.

Its a cliche to say it’ll all be about turnout which is what happened in the UK on June 23rd. The segments with a history of low participation voted in greater numbers than many forecast.

My betting remains on Trump because I think there is more potential for his price to tighten. Whether I stick with that I don’t know.

Mike Smithson