Archive for the 'WHITE HOUSE RACE' Category


PB Video Analysis: Will Donald Trump be Re-Elected in 2020?

Tuesday, August 28th, 2018

So, after many economics and finance related posts, I thought why not do a politics one?

It’s a simple question: will President Trump be re-elected in 2020? But while the answer will – Schrodinger’s cat-like – resolve itself when the box is opened in two years time, for now the answer is unknowable.

Which is the stronger force: an improving economy or the drip, drip of scandals? What matters more: who the Democrats choose or whether inflation returns?

And I suppose, as it’s obligatory, I’ll end the video with a prediction. Although – as Marvin said – I don’t suppose you’ll like it.

Robert Smithson

Robert tweets as ‘@MarketWarbles’


My 270/1 shot for the White House indicates that he might run

Saturday, July 21st, 2018

Watch out for John Hickenlooper – Governor of Colorado

Back in early April I reported that I’d backed Governor John Hickenlooper for the presidency at odds of 270/1 on Betfair.

One of the things about super long-shots is that you generally don’t know when you place your bet whether your man/woman will actually make a bid. So today’s strong indication that he is considering putting his hat into the ring is a big step forward.

I’d first noticed Hickenlooper a couple of years ago when he was being tipped as Hillary Clinton’s running mate and I liked what I saw. He appears to be everything that the Trump isn’t lucid, self-deprecating, intelligent and someone who comes over well. He’s also appears to have a strong sense of public service and has a good record in Colorado and Denver where he used to be mayor.

At this stage he’ll be assessing whether a bid is feasible – will he get the backing of key figures in the party and donors? My guess is that the most important thing the party will be looking for is someone who appears as though he/she could be competitive against Trump.

Today’s comments are exactly what you would expect from a potential runner at this stage. Even though WH2020 is more than two year away the battle will start in only about nine months.

Mike Smithson


The polling that should give great succour to Trump

Monday, June 11th, 2018

The above chart I found really interesting. Trump is retaining his support that is unmatched bar by George W Bush, by the hopefully unique set of circumstances that was 9/11.

Despite the general hostility directed towards Trump this is quite an achievement by Trump. His supporters are very loyal and shifting him from the White House in 2020 will be difficult, as it usually is with incumbent Presidents.

Of those eight Presidents who first became President after being elected in their own right and retained 74% and over of their support after 500 days only two didn’t win re-election. George Bush Senior, lost his re-election campaign and JFK, tragically, didn’t live long enough to fight a re-election campaign.



Introducing my 270/1 shot to win WH2020 – Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper

Tuesday, April 3rd, 2018

Ladbrokes have him at 16/1 for the Democratic nomination

It’s just over a year’s time we should be seeing the formal declarations of those entering the run for president in the 2020 White House race and over the ensuing 12 months we are going to hear a lot of speculation about who might put their hats into the ring.

The assumption is that Donald Trump will seek a second term and all the focus is on who will be his opponent from the Democratic party.

At the moment name recognition seems to be helping the ageing duo of Bernie Sanders (76) and ex Vice President Joe Biden (75) in the betting but once the primaries actually start then anything can happen. Just remember how the 2004 odds-on favourite for the nomination, Howard Dean, flopped as soon as the first primary votes were cast in Iowa – a result that played a big part in the foundation of PB.

    I’m not convinced there is any betting value on either Sanders or Biden.

My love is for long shot bets at this stage provided the odds are big enough to justify the risk. There are two things you can bet on with a possible contender – whether they get the nomination and whether they win the presidency.

Sometimes the gap in the betting in between these two can offer very good value for money.

One of the things I have been monitoring is the gap in the betting for the nomination and the President

My bet yesterday at 270 on Betfair was on the former mayor of Denver and current governor of Colorado John Hickenlooper. He’s no newcomer to presidential speculation and there has been talk of him running on a joint independent ticket with Republican John Kasich. Two years ago he was one of those tipped to be the Clinton V-P choice.

To give you an idea of the gap between the presidential markets and the nomination markets that Ladbrokes currently have Hickenlooper at 16/1 for the nomination.

You can still get 100+ on Betfair which still seems value.

There are several ways this bet could be profitable even if he does not make it to the White House. If he does put his hat into the ring then expect his odds to tighten sharply and during the first few primaries expect a high level of turbulence in the betting.

  • I should add that bets are NOT predictions. They are assessments of value based on the current betting odds. If you think that the betting prices on an outcome are better than the odds available then you have a value bet.
  • Mike Smithson


    Would Joe Biden beat Donald Trump? See this interesting analysis

    Monday, April 2nd, 2018

    I rather like this approach to looking at the White House race because this is a state battle as we saw in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but Trump made it because he picked up several key states by very small margins.

    Currently you can get Biden at 20/1 for the Presidency and Sanders at 12/1.

    I’m not tempted at these odds given how long you would have to wait and so much could happen in the meantime.

    Today I had what is only my third WH2020 bet at 280/1 on Betfair. I’m planing a separate post.

    Mike Smithson


    Warren makes first move for a possible 2020 White House bid

    Friday, March 9th, 2018

    At a dinner in Washington on Wednesday high profile Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, made what is being seen as the start of her bid to win the 2020 White House race.

    She announced that she is donating $5,000 to all 50 state Democratic parties in the US. She is also giving $15,000 to the national party. According to Politico:-

    “Warren also began laying out a national political argument, calling for the party to pick fights on consumer rights, guns, immigration and investigating and punishing “this president, his Cabinet, and his family.”

    “Folks are hurting, and they’re scared, and they’re angry, and they’re desperate for someone to put up a fight on their behalf. And it sure isn’t going to be Donald Trump and the Republicans,” Warren said, adding later, “I don’t want us to settle for being the party that takes the right side when it comes to the fights facing ordinary Americans. I want us to be the party that picks fights on their behalf.”

    In terms of name recognition Warren is probably at the top of the list at the moment of current Democratic contenders apart from Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. The last two who are 75 and 76 years old respectively are surely too old and runs could be portrayed as vanity trips.

    I would have liked Warren as the candidate in 2016 but Clinton had so tied up the Democratic machine that it was hard for anybody else to get any traction.

    But I’m not convinced that Warren is worth a punt at her current odds of about 7/1 for the nomination. There is an awful long way to go and there are several other youngster contenders who could mount serious challenges.

    Mike Smithson


    Trump critic Mitt Romney could prove problematical for Trump if, as likely, he’s elected senator

    Tuesday, February 20th, 2018

    The Republican White House nominee in 2012 and Trump critic, Mitt Romney is running to become the next Senator for Utah – a GOP stronghold. Given the tightness of the current split in the Senate, 51 Republican to 49 Democratic, the former nominee has the potential to cause problems for the White House.

    During the 2016 campaign Romney was a persistent Trump critic describing the man who was to become President as a “fraud” who was “playing the American public for suckers.

    It has been reported that Trump sought to try to persuade the incumbent Senator for Utah to stay after he’d announced his plan to retire in order to stop Romney.

    Romney shas said he generally approved of Trump’s agenda, but would not hesitate to call out the president if needed.

    “I‘m with the president’s domestic policy agenda of low taxes, low regulation, smaller government, pushing back against the bureaucrats,” Romney said. “I‘m not always with the president on what he might say or do, and if that happens I’ll call‘em like I see‘em, the way I have in the past.”

    Trump said on Twitter that Romney “will make a great Senator and worthy successor to @OrrinHatch, and has my full support and endorsement!”

    I wonder whether Romney might also be thinking of running for the nomination at WH2020

    Mike Smithson


    First Winfrey – Trump polling has Oprah 10 points ahead

    Wednesday, January 10th, 2018


    And she’s a favourability rating of 55%

    New polling just out this afternoon from the right-leaning pollster Rasmussen has a big boost for TV personality, Oprah Winfrey who has now entered, though not the race, the frame for WH20020. This is from the pollster:

    “TV personality Oprah Winfrey is the likely winner over President Trump if the 2020 election were held today, but there are a lot of undecideds.

    The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would opt for Winfrey, while 38% would choose Trump. But a sizable 14% are undecided.

    Winfrey has the support of 76% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans and 44% of voters not affiliated with either major political party. The president earns 66% of the vote from Republicans, 12% of Democrats and 38% of unaffiliateds.

    Twelve percent (12%) of both Republicans and Democrats are undecided given this matchup. One-in-five unaffiliated voters (19%) aren’t sure which candidate they would support.

    Fifty-five percent (55%) of all voters view Winfrey favorably, including 27% with a Very Favorable view of the longtime media personality and entrepreneur. That’s little changed from 2011 after Winfrey announced she was ending her TV talk show after 25 years on the air. Thirty-four percent (34%) share an unfavorable view of her, with 18% who have a Very Unfavorable one.”

    Clearly at this stage there is a novelty element but Oprah, like Trump as WH2016 has high level of name recognition simply because she’s is a high profile TV star.

    Whether these sort of numbers would survive an actual run for the nomination and the cut and thrust of a campaign we do not know.

    She is second favourite, behind Trump, on Betfair to win WH20120.

    Mike Smithson