A pointer to tomorrow’s big by-election? The day before #Eastleigh – pie chart with latest YouGov daily poll twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2013 How #Rennardgate is impacting on the Lib Dem shares in YouGov daily poll twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2013
If #Eastleigh goes the way of the Ashcroft poll we’ll have to revise our view of the power of the press twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013 The influence is on the decline On the face of the Lib Dem should be taking a real beating in the polls at the moment. Since the Rennard story broke on Thursday evening there has been increasing coverage and the party’s response has been less than optimal. But what’s happened in…
Only 2 days to go for the campaign weary people of #Eastleigh. twitter.com/mrjohnofarrell… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013 The #Eastleigh campaign – the most intensive ever? Ashcroft poll finds 90% of all voters have been contacted by the Tories & 92% by the LDs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013
All fieldwork was AFTER Rennardgate story came out Mark Pack reporting that LDs have 5% lead in post-Rennard poll, markpack.org.uk/39506/new-east… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2013 We’ll probably have to wait till tomorrow before getting the poll detail. The figures are almost exactly the same as the Times Populus poll published on Friday night. It’s understood that Populus carry out Lord Ashcroft’s surveys. It would appear that the weekend of terrible coverage for the Lib Dems hasn’t had…
Meanwhile news if coming out about postal voting Eastleigh Council say 14,276 postal votes issued, and they’ve had about 8,500 back so far, so about 11 per cent of voters already voted — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) February 25, 2013 So it’s Survation’s 4% CON lead vs the Populus 5% LD one I’ve done a check round the pollsters with the capabilities to do constituency surveys and the message I’ve got is that there probably won’t be a new survey ahead…
How can they fail with all this happening to the LDs? Terrible front pages for Nick Clegg this morning – 3 days before crucial #Eastleigh by-election twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2013 The appalling coverage for the LDs raises the #Eastleigh stakes for the Tories. They surely HAVE to win now. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2013 In the #Eastleigh betting LDs stable overnight but Ukip tightening. Table based on Betfair last trades. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike…
Ladbrokes make it a 6/4 chance that Clegg won’t be Lib Dem leader at the general election twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013 Inititial reaction to Clegg’s statement on #Eastleigh betting is for LD price to weaken & Tories to tighten twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013 13% of LAB voters in the Populus #Eastleigh poll said they didn’t even know who Nick Clegg was. When asked they said “never heard of him” — Mike Smithson…
Money piles on independent Danny Supple in the Hills win w/o top 4 market. In from 14/1 to 4/1 following Survation. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013 Make money reading the poll detail One betting market we haven’t touched on is from William Hill on which candidate outside the “big four” will come on top in Thursday’s by-election. Eagle-eyed punters have noticed that the Survation poll detail shows that the Independent,Danny Stupple, was recording by far the highest…