Archive for the 'Farage' Category

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As Farage’s “mass” march heads South the ex-UKIP leader has branding problems if there are Euro elections

Saturday, March 16th, 2019

Do voters know that he’s quit UKIP?

Given the Commons votes over the past week then there must be a chance that the UK will participate in the European Parliament elections at the end of May.

Farage is now with his new Brexit party which would what would appear on the closed list ballot papers if elections are held. The problem here is that while UKIP enjoys a high level of awareness Farage’s new party has yet to establish itself. Most voters, I’d guess, still think Farage is with UKIP.

So assuming that there are UK Euro elections then we could expect both UKIP and the Brexit party to be on the regional list ballot papers. As PBers no doubt know, in these election you vote for the party and not the individual and Farage’s name would only be on ballot paper in his own region.

This has the potential to split the pro-Brexit vote and make it mighty hard for Farage to achieve anything like the the success of 2014 when his then party, UKIP, came top.

At this stage this is hypothetical but all the main parties are working on plans just in case Euro elections take place.

Mike Smithson




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If there are UK Euro elections in May Farage’s new Brexit party could easily beat UKIP

Friday, March 1st, 2019

The elections that may or may not happen

While all sorts of attention has been given to the splits within the Conservative and Labour parties there has been very little coverage of the fact that UKIP, which won the 2014 UK euro elections, has been totally divided over the past 5 years. Barely a 3rd of 24 UKIP MEPs elected in May 2014 are still within the fold.

One of the defectors, Nigel Farage, was leader in 2014 and has setup his own party with an astute choice of name, the Brexit party.

Now we won’t know for some weeks whether or not the UK will be participating in the May European Parliament elections. If Brexit happens on time on March 29th then clearly it won’t. If there’s a short extension, as Mrs May has indicated then it won’t happen either. But if there is a longer extension agreed then by European law the UK will have to participate in the May elections.

To remind ourselves the format of these elections is unlike anything else within the UK. The country is divided into regions and people vote by marking a box on top of a party list of candidates. So unlike Westminster elections MEPs are not voted for by name. The party choice is everything.

Here there could be a fight for the same segment of the market between the remnants of UKIP and the Brexit party and my guess is that Farage’s grouping could do well.

You could see this being made into a mini referendum on Brexit itself.

Mike Smithson




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When some men want to be humiliated and embarrassed they hire dominatrices whereas Nigel Farage is considering running for London Mayor

Thursday, August 30th, 2018

The Financial Times are reporting

Nigel Farage is weighing a bid to become mayor of London, in an attempt to push the Conservative party into third place in the British capital.

Mr Farage, who lives in Bromley in south London, quit as leader of the UK Independence party in July 2016, weeks after the UK voted to leave the EU. He is still a member of the European Parliament, but will lose his position when the UK leaves the EU next March.

Mr Farage — who has stood unsuccessfully for parliament seven times, but has been elected three times as an MEP — said that the London mayoral election in May 2020 would be an opportunity to “make arguments” on a high-profile platform.

“I have been encouraged to [stand] by a group of people, but that doesn’t mean I’m going to,” he said. “I haven’t said no to it, I’m thinking about it.”

“The Tory party are very actively aware that if I did stand, they would probably come third, and they are afraid of that,” he added.

One senior Conservative official said that Downing Street was already braced for electoral embarrassment if Mr Farage entered the contest.

One ally of Mr Farage said that more Londoners had voted for Brexit than for Mr Khan, despite the city’s pro-EU reputation.

Apart from Scotland I cannot think of anywhere less suited for Nigel Farage to do well in than London so I’m expecting the seven times failed Parliamentary candidate to match that record in the London Mayoral election.

Assuming no change of government in 2020 we will have had ten years of Tory government, of various shades, and we’ll be midway through the Parliament so that’s when governments have been historically unpopular so there is the potential for the Tories to finish third. But I don’t expect it will be UKIP, in 2016 UKIP polled just over one tenth of what the Tories did in the first round, so that’s a very low base for Farage to start from.

The Tory candidate will be someone who isn’t seen as a heavyweight politician so there’s a chance for Farage to outshine them, though several people I respect have a lot of good things to say about Shaun Bailey.

However I don’t think Farage’s brand of politics are suited to London and there’ll be a real desire to ensure Farage doesn’t make it in to the final two. The supplementary vote, like the alternative vote system, allows for tactical voting against a particular candidate in the first round. It will be very easy for the Tories to portray themselves as the stop Farage side.

Farage’s friendship with Donald Trump and Trump’s history of antagonism with Sadiq Khan havethe potential of working against Farage in a city that seems vehemently opposed to Trump. It isn’t difficult to envisage Trump intervening on Farage’s behalf during the London Mayoral election and the situation developing not necessarily to Farage’s advantage.

I don’t think UKIP have the resources nor the infrastructure to run a proper London Mayoral campaign, just look at how few candidates they put in the 2017 general election.

Also it is a fundamental misreading of electoral physics to compare a low turnout London Mayoral election with several candidates conducted under the supplementary vote to a higher turnout referendum with a binary choice option.

So from a betting position I’d definitely be laying Farage to win the Mayoralty and laying him to finish second. I’m hoping for some bookies to price up Farage actually not standing, I’ll be looking to back Farage not standing.

TSE



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Blow for Farage after he loses libel case against anti race hate group

Tuesday, November 14th, 2017

But the former UKIP boss denies that he lost even though he withdrew the comments

The political legal story today is Nigel Farage agreeing to withdraw offensive comments about anti-racist group Hope not Hate.

The action had been brought against him following an appeal for funds which saw 16,000 people make donations.

In a statement laid before the court Farage said “Having now considered the position further I am happy to acknowledge that Hope Not Hate does not tolerate or pursue violent or undemocratic behaviour.”

Later Farage denied that he’d lost the case. “I am very surprised at Hope Not Hate’s announcement today that they have won their legal case against me. Some victory! Their statement today is thoroughly disingenuous.”

Mike Smithson




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If you’ve been betting on Farage as next UKIP leader then look away now

Saturday, July 1st, 2017

TSE



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It wasn’t an April Fool after all: Farage is PaddyPower’s new political advisor

Monday, April 3rd, 2017

Last Thursday the Dublin-based PaddyPower issued a press release embargoed for April 1st announcing that former UKIP leader had become the firm’s political advisor.

With minutes it was assumed that this was an April Fool and the story barely got any coverage.

Well we were wrong. This has actually happened and the firm has confirmed that he’s now taken up the role.

Noting that the bookie lost on Trump last November Farage had these comments to make:

“.. Clearly, Paddy Power needs help – and independence from the anti-Trump narrative that has dogged their thinking recently.

As the only British politician with a direct line to the Donald – sorry, Theresa! – I’m the perfect man to lead this recruitment intiative.

For instance, given the Donald’s blistering start to his time in office, I’ve recommended that Paddy Power scrap their impeachment market – it’s clearly not going to happen.”

There are other areas where Farage has advised including slashing the price on the President to serve a second term (10/11 in from 13/8), advocating paying out early on the US building a Mexican border wall this year, and removing all markets on Russian collusion – which he calls ‘Fake News’.

I’m not so sure that someone so committed to his views is the best person to offer impartial advice that could cost PP money. But maybe that’s not the objective. This is about getting publicity.

Mike Smithson




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For a party with less than one MP UKIP sure knows how to hog the headlines

Tuesday, February 28th, 2017

The big difference between Clacton MP, Douglas Carswell, and just about anybody else who has run for parliament for UKIP is that he’s shown that he can succeed under first past the post – the electoral area where UKIP has been an almost total failure.

If it comes to a fight between Banks and Carswell in what becomes of the Clacton constituency after the boundary changes then Carswell should do it even if a CON candidate is on the list. He’s got the name recognition and FPTP campaigning expertise as his performance in the 2014 by-election and GE2015 showed. The Tories threw an awful lot to try to regain the seat at GE2015 but fell quite a long way short.

Carswell understands data and my guess is that he and his team have a pretty good idea of his support base – the basic requirement in an FPTP election where it could be tight. The provisional boundaries plan has Clacton being linked to Harwich where Carswell was first elected an MP.

It might, of course, be that Carswell rejoins the Tories before the next election or maybe just stands as an independent.

Mike Smithson




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Extraordinary. Trump wants Farage to be Britain’s Ambassador to the United States

Tuesday, November 22nd, 2016

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What does Theresa May do about this?

Perhaps the most extraordinary development of Trump’s victory in British terms is the Tweet, from the President-elect, giving his view on who he wants as Britain’s man in Washington.

I can’t see this being looked at favourably at Number 10 but it does put the the PM in a quandary. It is vital for so many reasons that Britain has a good relationship with the new administration but having Farage there would be extremely difficult.

It would also be politically humiliating for Mrs May to follow this course.

What’s also extraordinary is how Twitter is being used. In days gone by there would be all sorts of discreet soundings in both London and Washington over who would take on this job but the idea of this being carried out on social media is a graphic example of the new world we are in.

There’s a form of blackmail in Trump’s Tweet. If May doesn’t agree then the implication is that Britain will have far less influence and certainly less knowledge about the thinking of the Trump administration.

    Whatever you’ve got to admire the chutzpah of Nigel Farage in all of this. His link with the incoming President is going to be a constant irritant to ministers.

It will be interesting to see how the bookies price this one. Expect some betting markets to be announced this morning.

Mike Smithson