Archive for the 'France' Category

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The French Presidency, Manchester Gorton & how long will Trump last – latest betting market round-up

Thursday, March 23rd, 2017

Macron remains the strong odds-on favourite in France

LAB eases a touch in Gorton but still very strong favourite

Punters think Trump’s got a 50% chance of NOT completing first term

Mike Smithson




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First polls give the French Presidential debate to Macron and he remains the strong odds-on favourite

Tuesday, March 21st, 2017


It’s been a big night in the French Presidential election with the first major TV debate between the top five candidates. Ahead of the event the assumption had been that the contender most at risk was the young centrist independent and odds-on betting favourite, Emmanuel Macron.

The event went on for a staggering three and a half hours.

An Elabe poll afterwards asked viewers who they though was the most convincing. According to Reuters the split was Macron 29%, the firebrand leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon 20%, the Republican and Francois Fillon and far-right leader Marine Le Pen were tied in third place with 19%, while the Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon got 11%.

The event has had almost no impact on the betting with Macron now rated as a 61% chance on Betfair and Le Pen on 21%.

Debate viewers are not representative of the electorate and we’ll have to wait for the first voting intention polls.

The Reuters report noted:-

“Macron, a former investment banker, came under criticism for private donations made to his campaign when Hamon suggested he could fall under the influence of lobbies in the pharmaceutical, banking or oil industry.

Macron retorted that he was the only candidate who was not funded by public money, since his party is new and had not yet benefited from public subsidies. “I pledge to be controlled by no one,” he said.

“The traditional parties, those that have for decades failed to solve yesterday’s problems, won’t be able to do it tomorrow either,” said Macron, who made a name for himself by criticising sacred cows of the French “social model” such as the 35-hour workweek.

Le Pen repeatedly stressed her opposition to the European Union, saying she did not want to see France become a “vague region” of the bloc. “I don’t want to be the vice chancellor of Angela Merkel,” she said, referring to the German leader.”

The first round of the election takes place on Sunday April 23rd with the runoff between the top two a fortnight later.

Mike Smithson




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The French election looks set to be biggest non-UK/US political betting event ever

Sunday, March 19th, 2017

With five weeks to go Macron remains strong odds-on favourite

Exactly 5 weeks on from today, on April 23rd, voters in France will participate in the round one of the presidential election and betting interest has been enormous. Currently on the Betfair exchange alone £7.5m of wagers have been matched and looks set to be bettered in size terms only by BREXIT and Trump.

Given that the French don’t allow punters to access British online bookmakers while in France then it’s safe to assume that little of the betting interest has come from people who will actually vote. I’m now being contacted by French media to explain why there is such interest in the UK.

All the signs from the polling are that the hard right candidate, Marine le Pen, will win that first round. But that will not be enough and it looks as though she will struggle in the second round on May 7th when the two at the top of round one slug it out.

Polling, because of the system is a bit complex. People are asked for their first round voting preferences and then presented with a range of alternatives for the second round. So it is important not to be misled by reports of the first round preferences.

Things look good at the moment for the 39 year old independent now running for En Marche, Emmanuel Macron. He has a 20%+ second round poll margin over Le Pen but a narrower one over the Republican, Fillon, still in the race in spite of Penelopegate.

Le Pen’s main chance comes if Macron fails to make the final two.

Mike Smithson




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Macron becomes an even stronger favourite for French President after a huge day of turbulence on the betting markets

Monday, March 6th, 2017

It has been an extraordinary 24 hours on the betting markets for the French presidency. Everything was hinged on a planned statement that the Republican nominee and one time odds-on favourite, Fillon, had announced he was going to make yesterday evening.

His campaign has been troubled for weeks by the investigation into payments of public money made to his British wife in what has become known as Penelopegate.

It had been thought that with the police investigation getting tighter that he would quit the race causing a large amount of activity on Juppe who it was assumed would take his place.

It was widely thought that Juppe, who had a more centrist appeal, would be a tougher challenge for Macron, to face than the right wing Fillon.

So all the money started going on Juppe with suggestions that if Fillon did pull out then he could be favourite.

It was not to be. Fillon announced that he was not standing down.

The assumption is that the young independent, Macron, will have an easier time making the top two in the first round of voting against Fillon than Juppe. So the Fillon decision has boosted Macron.

On current polling Macron has a clear second round, lead against Le Pen. The final round takes place on Sun May 7th three days after the English local and Mayoral elections as well, it is being assumed, the Manchester Gorton by-election

Based on the surveys we have at the moment it’s clear that Le Pen looks set to win the first round but that she will struggle in the second.

Mike Smithson




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Les Republicans. You’ve lost that lovin’ Fillon?

Sunday, March 5th, 2017

Why I’m laying François Fillon and expect the betting to be all shook Juppé very shortly

This was a curious speech by François Fillon, it felt like a politician going through the motions, and those tweets above seem to confirm it, though it would break a few irony meters if Fillon quit the race for alleged financial impropriety and was replaced as Les Republicans candidate by someone with a conviction for misuse of public funds.

I’ve been laying Fillon for a few days and been backing both Juppé and François Baroin, the latter who was over 500 on Betfair, and I still think is value at 44s.

But we saw in America, a candidate that most of the establishment was recoiling from still win the Presidency, albeit not the popular vote, which you’d almost certainly have to do win the final stage of the French Presidency, but from my betting perspective, Fillon is toast.

TSE



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Betfair moves sharply back to Macron for French President following a run of good polls

Tuesday, February 28th, 2017

Over the past week there has been a strong move on the betting markets to the 39 year old independent, Emmanuel Macron, for next French president following a series of polls that have him clearly in the top two for a runoff place.

Just over a week ago Macron wasn’t barely managing 20% shares across the board and was being beaten in some surveys by the French Republican Party candidate, Fillon. That changed sharply and the latest batch of polls has Macron averaging 24 to 25% for the first round of voting.

That is still below Le Pen in most surveys but as we all know it is being in the top 2 in the first round that really matters in order through to the runoff a fortnight later in early May.

In all of this the National Front’s Le Pen is staying fairly constant on 26 to 27 percent in the polls.

It is the second round polling that is most significant and here Macron is above 60% with Le Pen on less than 40%

The betting in the UK has been very high with more money being matched on Betfair than I have ever known for a non-US, non-UK election seven weeks out.

I was on Macron early at 7/1 but made the mistake last week of cashing out. Still a profit is always a profit.

This is still very early days and a lot can happen. The Macron bubble could still burst.

Mike Smithson




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Macron still in 3rd place in French Presidential polling but if he makes final 2 he looks set to win

Friday, January 27th, 2017



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Big news in the French Presidential race is that odds-on favourite Fillon could be involved in financial scandal

Tuesday, January 24th, 2017

Fillon no longer odds-on