Archive for the 'Labour' Category

h1

The tide is high. How many Labour MPs will be holding on after 8 June?

Monday, May 8th, 2017

Everyone seems to agree: Labour are in for a pummelling at the upcoming general election.  The opinion polls, the local election results and the anonymous comments from politicians of all parties on the campaign trail all point in the same direction. Even the newspaper pundits, constantly looking for a new angle, are unanimously predicting a Conservative landslide.  Few, however, have tried to put numbers on the eventual outcome.

This fool is going to rush in.  I’ve been looking at the Labour defence and trying to work out what will be left after the general election.  Settle down; this is complicated.

Polling consistently shows that the Conservatives are doing especially well among Leave voters, gaining a much greater swing among them than among Remain voters.  You can argue which is cause and which is effect but for our purposes it doesn’t matter.  Wherever you find more Leave voters we can expect to find more swing to the Conservatives.

So we shouldn’t try to interpret the polls through uniform national swing without first considering how Leaveworthy the current Labour seats are.  Chris Hanretty has produced estimates of Leave percentages in each constituency and while these are not going to be perfect, they should be near enough for present purposes.

Any dividing line is going to be arbitrary.  A seat that divided for Leave 51:49 is unlikely to behave very differently from a seat that just came up short 49:51.  So initially I divided the Labour seats into three groups: those that were clearly Remain (which I defined as under 46%); those that were fairly evenly divided (which I defined as between 46% and 54%); and those that were clearly Leave (which I defined as over 54%).  You can argue with my definitions and no doubt some will.

And immediately we see a major problem for Labour.  130 of their seats won at the last election were clearly won by Leave.  We can expect the Conservatives to do better than usual in these.

But there’s a more subtle problem. 33 of the 63 Labour seats that were clearly won by Remain form part of the 100 safest Labour seats, while a further 11 are among the 25 most marginal Labour seats.  Very few seats clearly won by Remain are in the zone where Remain voters’ resistance to Conservative charms is likely to make a difference.

I then looked at the seats that were at one extreme or another.  And just seven of the 32 Labour seats where Leave scored under 35% of the vote fall outside the 25 most marginal Labour seats and the 100 safest Labour seats.  Four of those seven seats have the Lib Dems or the Greens in second place.  As chance would have it, the type of seat where Labour is best placed to hold off the Conservatives looks as though it isn’t going to be that relevant in this election.

At the other extreme, there are 75 Labour seats where Leave won more than 60% of the vote (yes, that’s asymmetric with the “extreme Remain” banding).  That’s more than all the Labour seats where Leave scored under 46%.  20 of the seats in the 51st to 100th most vulnerable Labour seats are in this category.  Another 10 seats in this category are in the 101st to the 125th most vulnerable Labour seats.

Anecdote, the tenth wave of the British Election Study (as analysed by Chris Hanretty) and ICM subsamples all suggest that the Conservatives are doing particularly well in Labour-held seats.  The distribution of the Labour Leave-leaning and Remain-leaving seats might well explain that.

What does that mean in terms of seat losses?  First, we need to work out what the likely swing from Labour to the Conservatives is likely to be and then adjust.  Working on the basis that often the polling at the beginning of the election campaign is what the final result ends up as, I’m assuming a swing of roughly 7.5%.

Then we need to decide how this will differ in different bands of seats.  I’m working on the basis that the swing will be 4% lower in extreme Remain seats, 2% lower in less extreme but clearly Remain seats, 2% higher in clearly Leave seats and 3.5% higher in extreme Leave seats.  This would result in 79 seat losses to the Conservatives.  On this model, Labour would hold Exeter and lose Don Valley. Allowing for other losses to the Lib Dems and other parties, this would leave Labour with just under 150 seats. 

Of course, this is all pretty arbitrary, with assumptions galore.  The polling might be a lot tighter (if the swing is only 5%, Labour would end up with somewhere around the 170 mark).  Or Labour might collapse much further (if the swing is 10%, Labour would end up with somewhere around 130).  I may have radically underestimated or overestimated the swing differential in different types of seats.  But I expect the result to be in this ballpark.

I note that Bet 365 offers odds of 9/4 on Labour getting 126 to 150 seats and 5/2 on them getting 151 to 175 seats, implying they will get in this band roughly 60% of the time.  I think the chances are more like 85%.  Or if you want to back just a single band, Betfair Sportsbook’s and Paddy Power’s 7/4 on 120-159 seats looks generous to me.  I’m on.

Alastair Meeks




h1

For LAB the onjective is to avert a Tory landslide – but how

Tuesday, May 2nd, 2017

Don Brind explores the options

For many years Theresa May’s main claim to fame was her bravery in telling the Tories they’re the Nasty Party.

If you doubt that nastiness lives on in Toryland despite the election of the vicar’s daughter look no further than the Defence Secretary Michael Fallon. He is the attack dog whistled up by Lynton Crosby to spread a bit of ugliness.

There is no one on the Labour side who specialises in Fallonic thuggery and nor am I suggesting there should be. But defining your opponent is a key part of political campaigning  I suggested to Yvette Cooper she was ideally suited to challenging and exposing Theresa May’s shortcoming.
“As long as you don’t cast me as a Michael Fallon. He’s appalling.”

Cooper is already on the case. She rocked Theresa May with a zinger of a question at the last Prime Minister’s Questions of the Parliament.  She pointed out that the reasons for calling a snap general election were untrue, adding “we can’t believe a word you say.”

The message — You can’t trust Theresa May” is step one in averting a landside.
Although she outscores Jeremy Corbyn in favourability polls, May is no superstar, as her pedestrian performances on Marr and Peston showed. It’s why she’s being kept out of debates and away from contact with real voters.

I have no doubt May is vulnerable to a forensic exposure of her duplicity and her defective moral compass. This is not a job for Corbyn himself or those close to him — not the least because her apparent popularity comes largely from being compared to him.

Understandably Team Corbyn don’t accept at this stage that a landslide is on the cards. They hope that an blizzard of polices will narrow the gap.

Nonetheless, I think they should encourage Cooper and other senior figures such as Hilary Benn and Lord David Blunkett to challenge the Prime Minister’s trustworthiness and the gap between her rhetoric and reality. Let’s call them the Labour Truth Team.

We should not assume that May is unassailable and that voters won’t be worried about her dishonesty shown in calling an election after repeated denials. And there is lots of other evidence Theresa May can’t be trusted and that any promises she makes are there to be broken. I examined the gap between May’s rhetoric and reality in a recent post.

Her slippery morals are likely to come into focus shortly when the Crown Prosecution Service announce what action they are taking over some 30 Tory agents and candidates caught up in the expenses allegations exposed by Channel Four’s Michael Crick.

At Prime Minister’s Questions May signalled she was ready to turn a blind eye to any misdemeanours and endorse them as candidates.  Lib Dem campaigner Mark Pack reckons the CPS decision, which is expected before nominations close is “a once-in-a-century type dramatic event to stop the Conservatives winning.”
The ground war will decide whether there’s a landslide

Nobody will, of course, be able to vote for or against a landslide. Whether it happens will depend on the ground war in the 50 or so Labour seats which on current polling projections could be in play. 
The Labour Truth Team can do vital work in helping the many brilliant hardworking Labour MPs whose seats are in jeopardy. Tory candidates will try to ride on the PM’s coat tails, using her heavily in their campaign material. Exposing her duplicity and dishonesty Labour’s defence of these key seats.

Fears of a Tory Tyranny – the phrase was coined by Jack Dromey, who defending a 5,129 majority in Birmingham Erdington – have prompted a call for electoral pacts with the Greens. 
One of those leading the calls for Labour to stand down is rising star and former shadow cabinet minister Clive Lewis whose fate in Norwich South hangs on attracting Greens and Lib Dems. He had majority of 7,654 over the Tories with the two other “progressive” parties each polling more than 6,500 votes.

In general I am in favour of tactical – or as I prefer to call it intelligent voting – but I am cautious about whether the Greens can deliver.

In 2015 I discovered that Green voters are some of the most bigoted and blinkered people (outside the ranks of Momentum). On doorsteps in Battersea and Croydon I would regularly say — “Vote Green and you’ll get Blue”. This line was vindicated in a group of nine seats the Tories won with tiny majorities. Across those seats there were more than 15,000 Green voters. If a quarter of them had voted Labour David Cameron would have struggled to get his overall majority.

The seats — with the Tory majority in bold — are Gower 27 1161; Derby N 41 1618; Croydon C 165 1454; Bury N 378 1141; Morley&Outwood 422 1264; Plymouth S&D 523 3401; Brighton Kempton 690 3187; Weaver Vale 806 1183; Telford 730 930.

Interestingly, four of the MPs, Gavin Barwell Croydon Central, Oliver Colville Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, David Nuttall Bury North, Graham Evans Weaver Vale are among those reported to be under investigation by the police.

I don’t always agree with Tim Farron but the Lib Dem leader is spot on when he tells voters “a Conservative landslide means they will take you for granted wherever you live.”



h1

Corbyn to quit or not to quit on June 9th, that is the question

Sunday, April 30th, 2017

O, I die, Horatio;
The potent poison quite o’er-crows my spirit:
I cannot live to hear the news from England;
But I do prophesy the election lights
On Fortinbras: he has my dying voice;
So tell him, with the occurrents, more and less,
Which have solicited. The rest is silence.  – Hamlet Act V, Scene II

William Hill have a market up on whether Jeremy Corbyn will announce his resignation before 11pm on June 9th. Whilst it might sound like the epitome of hubris and arrogance to assume that a Tory majority is nailed on, it isn’t hubristic and arrogant when you remember the Labour leader is Jeremy Corbyn, a man who is setting all sorts of polling records for the wrong reasons.

In recent years the  standard operating procedure is for the party leader of Labour or the Tories that doesn’t win the general election resigns as party Leader, however I feel Corbyn will break this recent precedent. For the following reasons.

  1. One of the things we’ve learned about Corbyn a leader, no matter how bad the polling, no matter how bad the local council election results, no matter the record breaking by election loss in Copeland, he’s quite impervious to the criticism. He genuinely believes in his project to transform for Labour and the country, and won’t let something like a general election defeat get in the way of that.
  2. Corbyn can argue, with some justification, because of Theresa May’s nefariousness in becoming another liar politician and calling an early election in stark contrast to her promises not to do so, he would be justified in being allowed to stay on as leader after a general election defeat. Corbynism is a five year project, you really can’t judge him after fewer than two years of him being leader.

Earlier on this week it was reported that ‘Staff at Labour’s headquarters could go on to strike if Jeremy Corbyn tries to cling on as party leader if he suffers a major defeat on June 8. Sources told The Times workers fear the hapless leftie will refuse to step down even if Theresa May romps to victory next month.’

On that basis I’m taking the 5/6 on him not announcing his resignation before 11pm on June 9th. He’s one stubborn bugger, he kept calm and carried on even after 172 of his 232 MPs declared no confidence in his leadership. Corbyn, I expect, won’t be channelling his inner Hamlet from Act V, Scene II and go quietly after the mother of all electoral shellackings.

Although the way Mrs May is blowing huge Tory leads in this campaign so far, I wouldn’t be surprised if William Hill introduce very shortly a similar market on whether she’ll announce her resignation before 11pm on June 9th as the Tory party will prove once again it is an absolute monarchy moderated by regicide if she fails to win (a majority) against Corbyn.

TSE



h1

Momentum’s cunning plan to change the narrative about LAB’s chances

Thursday, April 20th, 2017



h1

Len McCluskey thinks LAB could be in government after GE2020 – a pipe dream or a possibility?

Monday, April 10th, 2017

052017125823

Don Brind on where the UNITE boss is right and where wrong

Len McCluskey is right. Labour could be back in government as a result of the 2020 General Election. I agree with the Unite leader that while there’s little chance of Labour winning the election there’s a decent chance that the Tories will lose it.
McCluskey is rather more emphatic than me: “ I don’t think the Tories will win the next election. They might be the largest party but I don’t think they will be able to form a government,” he told the Observer  What he foresees is a minority government supported by the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.

With Labour languishing in the mid 20s in the polls and trailing the Tories by up to 18 points that many will think Len and I have taken leave of our senses.Theresa May looks impregnable.

But then so did Sir John Major in 1992. BBC Parliament is giving us Labour masochists the chance to relive the trauma of that defeat when Major he garnered a record 14 million votes to see of the challenge from Neil Kinnock. . Perhaps the channel should now think about re-running coverage for September 16th 1992 — “Black Wednesday. Less than six months after his victory Major’s government imploded – and Europe was the issue.”The UK was forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism damaged the Major government’s economic credibility beyond repair.

And like Len McCluskey I suspect the Theresa May’s is much more fragile than it looks. I aired my hostility to her policies in my last post here.

Her current popularity could be tested by underfunding of the NHS and schools as well as the continuing sharp squeeze on living standards and, of course, Brexit.

Then there the signs of a Lib Dem recovery, which according to the New Statesman’s political editor George Eaton is worrying Tory MPs. He says,
“The MPs’ fears, I can reveal, were later reinforced by private Conservative polling. According to multiple sources, a survey conducted by Crosby Textor showed the party would lose most of the 27 gains they made from the Lib Dems in 2015, including all those in south London, all those in Cornwall and most of those in Devon.”

Those gains were crucial to May’s Commons majority of 16 – which is, of course, smaller than Major’s in 1992.

This is where I part company with the Unite leader. If it’s governments that lose elections the Opposition has to be ready to profit. McCluskey thinks Jeremy Corbyn should be given more time to prove he can win over the voters. I believe this is impossible. Voters in general, and workers class voters in particular, have made up their minds. They don’t see him as a Prime Minister.

Electing a new leader is the ultimate game changer. Look at Germany where, as the Guardian reports, the advent of Martin Schultz, “has already seen the SPD, after nearly two decades in which it has haemorrhaged support, boosting the number of its card-carrying members by thousands, while polls have shown voter support has risen by about 10 points.”

The sooner Labour gets the chance to find its Martin Schultz the better.

Don Brind



h1

The search for the answer to Labour’s woes

Wednesday, March 15th, 2017

What happens when the focus is on “knocking on doors”

John Prescott’s view that Jeremy Corbyn and his top team are “not up to the f***ing job” which earned him a “potty mouth Prescott” headline  in the Mail on Sunday won’t have come as surprise to the Labour leader.

I understand that the former deputy Prime Minister has said as much to Corbyn’s face. “You’re not a leader and you never will be while you’ve got a hole in your backside” is the former deputy Prime Minister’s (slightly bowdlerised) comment to the leader. This is despite the fact Lord Prescott backed the Corbyn’s re-election last year because he didn’t think he’d been given enough time to prove himself and his journalist son, David, is Corbyn’s speech writer.

Prescott undoubtedly speaks for the vast majority of Labour MPs and peers. What’s interesting, though, is how few are speaking out. More than one MP has said to me “I’m biting my tongue”. The word has gone round that silence is a powerful weapon in undermining the under-performing leader. One of the lessons of the second leadership contest was that criticism by MPs was counter-productive, feeding Momentum efforts to depict Corbyn as a martyr.

It means that Corbynistas have been operating in a vacuum in seeking to excuse the leader for the Copeland disaster. One of the more plausible efforts has come from Kate Osamor, the shadow International Development Secretary in a Huffington Post Interview in which she highlights the “neglect” of many safe Labour seats by long-serving MPs.

Rather than blaming Corbyn, she says, MPs should follow his example and get out on to the doorstep of how to win. “All MPs have to be knocking on doors, at least once a week, for an hour … Jeremy is out in his own constituency. He still knocks on doors”

Incidentally, Theresa May is also a great canvasser according to David Runciman in his LRB review of Rosa Prince’s biography of the Prime Minister. “Canvassing – whether in local or national elections – remains her preferred way of doing politics. Given the chance, she will still knock on doors, even now she is prime minister.”

But there is a flaw in Osamor’s “get knocking” prescription as a remedy for Labour’s woes, says London Assembly member Tom Copley.

    Most MPs are out on the doorstep regularly, which is in part how they know Jeremy is so unpopular with voters.

The point is underlined by Professor Glen O’Hara of Oxford Brookes University. He calculates that on the day Corbyn relaunched his leadership early in the New Year the Tory poll lead “was 11.8% (six-poll average). It now stands at 16.5%.”

The label “bed blocker” has been pinned on the Labour leader by David Cowling, former head of research at the BBC. The subtle point is that people become bed blockers in the NHS through no fault of their own. They are in a place they don’t want to be — but they need help to get out of their predicament. The question is who will help Jeremy escape from a job he never wanted and which is causing misery for him and his Labour “family”? John Prescott has done his bit.

Don Brind



h1

If Corbyn continues he’ll be remembered as the selfish bed-blocker who put himself ahead of LAB’s survival

Sunday, March 12th, 2017


Front cover of latest edition of Prospect

The polls/leader ratings, by-elections and the locals all pointing in one direction

My heading and the front cover of the latest Prospect might appear harsh but how else can you describe Labour’s predicament? It has a leader who is electorally toxic who is kept in place by a party membership that remains broadly supportive. Certainly if there was another leadership election and Corbyn stood it is hard to see how he could be beaten as this week’s LAB members’ polling has shown.

Prospect Magazine is right to highlight Labour’s plight in the way it does. Parties can totally collapse as we saw what happened to Scottish Labour at GE2015 – down from holding 41 Scottish seats to just one. Maybe we could be edging for something similar south of the border.

Meanwhile polls are becoming even more awful for the party, Corbyn’s personal ratings remain poor and a fortnight ago it suffered the almost unprecedented loss of a Westminster by-election to the governing party. On top of that each week its local election performance gets worse with the Tories now picking up seats in Labour heartlands.

    All this means is that the UK does not have a credible opposition at a most critical time resulting in Mrs May’s government being almost totally unfettered.

The first step for LAB is for its bed-blocking leader to stand aside. If he doesn’t he risks going down in history as the man who destroyed the movement.

Mike Smithson




h1

Labour’s Achilles heel in Manchester Gorton is its faction-ridden local party

Tuesday, March 7th, 2017

The by-election selection battle could be bloody

A few days ago there was an excellent piece in the Manchester Evening News about Gorton constituency Labour party and the ongoing fights within it between the warring factions.

It has been so bad that it has effectively been under special measures for well over a decade and the choice of who’ll take over what appears to be a totally safe seat will bring this out into the open.

Last year a mammoth falling-out between different factions and personalities reached its zenith at a Levenshulme branch meeting. As with all things to do with Gorton CLP it can be difficult to get to the actual facts – but suffice to say the police were called in amid claims of vote-rigging, abuse and intimidation.

A letter from regional office to the CLP at the time said allegations ‘related to the conduct of Labour party members both during and outside of Labour party meetings’, as well as to ‘the conduct of members of the CLP executive committee in administering internal ballots’.

It had received complaints from members fearing for their safety, it added.”

One of the key drivers of the splits has been who should replace Sir Gerald Kaufman who died last week at the age of 86. Seats like this don’t come up that often and the assumption must be that whoever gets it will effectively have a job for life provided they can surmount the hurdle of the by-election itself.

That on the face of it should be a dead certainty but there’s a lot of worry within the LAB camp echoed by local MP and the woman said to be Corbyn’s favoured successor, Rebecca Long-Bailey. She said
MPs couldn’t “ever call a seat a safe seat nowadays” when asked about the upcoming Manchester Gorton by-election.

While LAB has been struggling even to agree the process of how the selection will operate the LDs, who after the Iraq war held 19 of the 21 council seats in the constituency, have chosen their candidate and got their first leaflets out. Their candidate is someone who for 21 years was a councillor in the area and unlike UKIP’s man in Stoke has a PhD. Hers was in nuclear physics.

Whatever Labour’s difficulties which will get a lot of attention it is very hard to conclude that the red team could lose. This is the party’s seventh safest seat and the LDs were a long way back at GE2015.

I’m on them at 14/1 on Betfair and certainly am not tempted by the 11/2 that some bookies now have them at.

I should add that I have a special interest in this constituency because it is the place where I was born and I know it well.

Mike Smithson