Opinium’s leader ratings also have Ed ahead of Dave

There’s a new poll out from Opinium – the online firm that hasn’t received much credit for being closest with the final Boris-Ken split in the London Mayoral election just over a fortnight ago.

It reported a 52-48 final split which was two points closer than YouGov. The final split in actual votes was 51.53% to 48.47%.

Opiinum’s latest Westminster VI poll is now reporting, like the other firms, a move to Labour away from the Tories since April with a very high UKIP share. This is the split CON 30-2/LAB 41+2/UKIP 10-/LD 9+1.

The firm’s leader approval ratings show with changes on last month: DC=-27%(-5)/EdM =-17(+9)/NC-46(-3)

All this is in line with what we’ve seen from YouGov and the other firms.

It means that all the polls from all the pollsters to have reported since the May 3 local elections have LAB with double digit leads.

After the weekend we should get the results of phone polls from ICM and Populus.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Is this not just a setback but a long-term nightmare?

The weekly YouGov leadership ratings for David Cameron are out and add further to trend we’ve seen since the budget. He’s gone from a neutral 46% Well 47% Badly at the end of January to 32% Well 63% Badly this morning.

Writing in the Sunday Times YouGov’s Peter Kellner observes that “Only Gordon Brown can match such a collapse in popularity, when he scrapped plans to hold a snap election in October 2007. It is not a happy precedent.”

As PB regulars will know that at this stage before an election I place much more importance on the leadership numbers than voting intention. In this poll the party shares were CON 29%/LAB 40%/LD 11%/UKIP 10% – the Tory 29% rating equaling their lowest ever in a YouGov survey.

If these and other polling numbers are reflected in the local elections on Thursday then then blues are going to see huge losses which will only add to the negative narrative.

The big question now is whether the situation is recoverable?

It is always said that Dave is at his best when his back is to the wall. The next week or so could test that theory to the full.

Meanwhile the position of Jeremy Hunt looks even more precarious and Ladbrokes have now tightened his “next Cabinet exit” price to 4/6. Last Sunday you could have got 50/1.

In the next Tory leader betting the money has started to go on House Minister, Grant Shapps. I put a bet on last night at 25/1 – that’s now shifted with Ladbrokes to 16/1.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Why such a sharp drop in just two days?

The weekly YouGov leadership ratings are out behind the paywall at the Sunday Times and show a sharp drop on polling earlier in the week.

Today’s numbers have 28% saying he’s doing his job as Labour leader “well” compared with 60% who say he’s doing it badly. That makes a net minus of 32 points, just one point off his worst figure ever in June.

David Cameron, meanwhile, is on 43% “well” to 51% “badly” a net minus of just 8 points.

These figures will be particularly disappointing for the young Labour leader because when the same question was put in a YouGov poll earlier in the week Ed had 33% saying well to 50% saying “badly” – a net minus of 17 points.

The gap between the two polls taken over such a short period is probably accounted for by the fact that the criticism of his Liverpool conference speech continued for several days after he made it – and, indeed, is the focus for more comment in today’s Sunday papers.

My main caveat, that I repeat ever autumn, is that polls can sometimes go a bit haywire during the conference season.

UPDATE: The figures in the original story and graphic were based on the graphic in the Sunday Times which does not marry with the data published a couple of hours ago by YouGov. The net deficit is 32% not the 33% that the paper suggested.

@MikeSmithsonPB

Is the media narrative now about his leadership

The chart contrasts the Labour lead in the overnight YouGov daily poll (6%) for the Sun and the deficit Ed Miliband has when the same sample was asked “who would be the best PM” (-14%).

When the “best PM” question was asked just before the general election Gordon Brown trailed Cameron by just six points.

The detail of the overnight polling shows that just 1% of LibDem voters named Ed as “best PM” with 20% going for Cameron.

It’s that different picture between voting intention and leadership responses the we’ve seen have had in several recent polls and, interestingly the latter are now being given much more attention by commentators.

What this all does is fuel the media narrative about Miliband’s leadership and he could have a difficult few weeks.

Will he survive? That’s hard to say but the bookie, Stan James, now makes Miliband 2/1 to be next leader out. Clegg is at 3/1.

@MikeSmithsonPB