Archive for the 'PB Angus Reid polls' Category


Is it Labour’s ratings that will keep EdM afloat?

Thursday, December 2nd, 2010

How serious is it for the party’s new leader?

The eighteen or so hours since the end of PMQs yesterday the big focus at Westminster has been on Labour’s leader of only ten weeks – Ed Miliband.

The write-ups in the papers of his performance have been pretty bad and last night there was a longish feature on Newsnight by Michael Crick about EdM’s position.

Yet in spite of all this Labour continues to poll well and the latest PAPA – the Politicalbetting All Pollsters’ Average – has CON 38,2: LAB 39: LD 12.8.

That, of course, is on voting intentions and it doesn’t look as though there’ll be a general election before May 2015 – a long time off.

Maybe a better way of taking the current political temperature is by looking at the leader approval ratings and here EdM has yet to make an impact.

The latest, from the PB Angus Reid poll had 33% of those polled saying they were “satisfied” with his performance as opposition leader. This was behind Cameron on 44% and the troubled Nick Clegg on 36%.

The real problem for EdM is if he starts to be treated like Iain Duncan Smith was during his period as Tory leader between 2001 and his ousting in November 2003. IDS found it almost impossible to shake off the narrative that said he was failing and eventually his fellow Tory MPs took action.

I don’t think that we are in that situation yet and Nick Clegg remains the favourite in the betting on which leader will go first.

Mike Smithson


So was Cameron the “Comeback Kid”?

Friday, April 23rd, 2010

Who won 2nd debate? ICM AR YouGov ComRes Populus
Cameron 29% 32% 36% 30% 37%
Clegg 33% 33% 32% 33% 36%
Brown 29% 23% 29% 30% 27%


Clegg wins by three pollsters to two

Clearly there will be great relief in the blue camp about the outcome last night although, as can be seen, the message from the pollsters in their instant surveys was mixed. In terms of straight wins it was Clegg 3 Cameron 2 with Brown on zero although his performance was seen as being much better than last week.

These are, of course, quickie reactions and will frame this morning’s coverage. The big question is what this will do to the voting intention polls and we’ll need to wait until Saturday before getting a full range.

The Brown camp will be pleased with their man’s performance though his denial on what is in party leaflets on pensioner bus passes might be something that he’ll regret – for it does not take much for opponents to show that his statement was untrue.

The SNP was quick to circulate copies of the Labour leaflets from his own constituency and, no doubt, there’ll be spats for a few hours.

Majority betting NOM CON LAB OTH/LD
Ladbrokes 4/6 6/4 16/1 20/1
Political Smarkets 57% 39% 6% 3%
  • The latest PB cartoon is, as ever, by Marf who can be contacted via her website. This and other prints and originals are for sale.
  • Mike Smithson


    How much are you winning on the Lib Dem surge?

    Wednesday, April 21st, 2010

    Is now the time to do some serious spread betting?

    There’s a sub-set of data in the PB/Angus Reid general election polling series that looks at what is happening in the 62 seats which the Lib Dems won at the 2005 general election. Inevitably given that this represents only about one in ten of all GB seats the sub-sample is small.

    But the numbers coming from surveys since the debate show that Clegg’s party is doing enormously well in the seats that it holds. Last night’s poll had the split LD 44%: CON 23%: LAB 19%.

    This supports what was being shown in pre-debate polling that the Lib Dems are doing well in the seats that they are defending. The chances are, surely, that it will keep almost all of them.

    So if you are entering into the high-risk arena of spread-betting on commons seats then you can be relatively confident that Clegg’s party is not going to drop below about 60. If you bought at the current Sporting Index level of 86 seats then, arguably, your maximum losses would be about 26 seats.

    Thus a bet of £10 a seat would expose you to a down-side risk of £260. Set that against the potential upside. Thus taking last night’s YouGov poll fed into the Well UKPR seat calculator and you get a 143 seat projection – or a potential gain of 67 or £670 for a £10 a seat bet.

    The question is whether the Lib Dems are going to stay up at these dizzy heights or will the bubble burst? Well it hasn’t so far and the surge continues.

    All the polls where the fieldwork was completed yesterday had very good numbers for Clegg’s team. The ComRes roly poly poll was slightly earlier and based on the aggregation of samples of 500 from each of Sunday and Monday.

    One of the great things about spread betting on commons seats is that if you see your choice fading then you close the bet down at whatever the current sell price is.

    Mike Smithson


    Lib Dems up 2 in new PB/AR poll

    Wednesday, April 7th, 2010
    Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Apr 7 Apr 3
    LABOUR 26% 27%
    LIB DEMS 22% 20%
    LAB to CON swing from 2005 7% 7%

    But the Labour still have a double digit deficit

    There’s a new PB/Angus Reid poll just out and the figures are above. Polling started yesterday and went on until this afternoon – and was almost all carried out after the election was declared by Mr. Brown yesterday.

    The comparisons are with the weekend’s AR poll for the Sunday Express.

    The numbers are good for the Lib Dems who for the next four weeks will benefit from the broadcasting rules that give them coverage at almost the same level as the two main parties.

    Support for “others” remains at a high level though that could reduce sharply as we get close to May 6th. The AR voting intention question will be tailored so that respondents are only asked about parties standing in their seat.

    The data should be out later this evening and a link posted here.

    Mike Smithson


    Lib Dems get Vince-boost with PB/AR

    Wednesday, March 31st, 2010

    Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 31 Mar 17
    CONSERVATIVES 39%37% 39%
    LABOUR 27%28% 26%
    LIB DEMS 23%22% 21%
    LAB to CON swing from 2005 –% 8%

    And others drop sharply as well

    With the election only days away from being called there’s a boost for the Lib Dems in the latest PB/Angus Reid poll.

    The entire field-work took place yesterday and today and so was completed after Monday’s Channel 4 “Ask the Chancellors” debate.

    A big feature in this latest poll is a sharp decline in the proportion going to others. This follows a period when AR was recording the biggest shares – that is now down to one of the lowest.

    Labour also move up to their highest recorded level since AR started their UK polls last October.

    In the run-up to the election AR have made a change to their geographical sampling approach. This is how they describe it:-

    “……we believe that one of the most important ingredients of success in online polls is rigorous geographic sampling. This means not simply ensuring we have the appropriate number of respondents in a broad region, like London, but that we the right number of people in each part of London from Tower Hamlets to Croydon. In order to achieve that we have divided the 632 constituencies in Great Britain into 142 “Super Constituencies.”

    Each of these “Super Constituencies” is made up of about four or five constituencies grouped together based on a combination of geography, demographics, income and political leaning. This approach means that no micro-political culture is missed, leading to more accurate results.”

    This is how AR use operate their campaign polls in Canada where the firm has had great success.

    I’ll update this post with the link to the detailed data when that becomes available later tonight.

    Mike Smithson

    Update (2045): Andy from Angus Reid has confirmed that the figures originally released hadn’t been fully adjusted.  The correct figures are now in the table.  David Herdson


    What happens if there is no GREEN/UKIP/BNP standing?

    Friday, March 19th, 2010

    How would the vote split?

    Lots of talk today about how many candidates the “others” – GREEN/UKIP/BNP – will actually have standing in the election.

    UKIP looks as though it will have in excess of 500 but the other two parties are probably going to fall short by quite a distance.

    With this segment running quite high in a number of polls the question is how would this go if potential voters have not got someone to support in their constituency.

    This is a question that we ask every month in the PB/Angus Reid polls to those who indicated support for the three parties. These are the findings from the latest survey.

    “What if no GREEN/BNP/UKIP candidate standing in your constituency…” Share
    CON 20%
    LAB 8%
    LD 18%
    Other/DK/won’t say 56%
    PB Angus Reid poll March 15

    PaddyPower has overall vote markets for both the BNP and UKIP.

    Mike Smithson


    The Tories still lead by 8 points with Harris

    Friday, March 19th, 2010
    Harris poll for The Metro Mar 16 Mar 9
    LABOUR 28% 29%
    LIB DEMS 18% 18%
    LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 5.5%

    UKIP/BNP/GRN all move up

    The gap between the Tories and Labour remains the same in the latest poll by Harris Interactive for the Metro but both main parties slip a point.

    It should be noted that fieldwork for the poll took place over seven days – from Wednesday last week to Tuesday this week – which seems an extraordinary long period of time when things can change. And we are only getting it today – three days later.

    The main feature is the increasing share going to “others” – up now to 18% points which makes it the highest of all the pollsters covering this election. Another on-line firm, Opinium, had the total at 17% while this week’s PB/Angus Reid poll saw a sharp decline in this segment to 14%.

    It is something of a mystery why the internet firms should all, with the exception of YouGov, be recording such shares – maybe it is that supporters of parties like the BNP and UKIP feel more comfortable with their choice when they are not talking to a human interviewer.

    In this poll UKIP, the BNP and the Green Party are all up one point to six, five and four per cent.

    This latest poll means that three of the firms reporting this week have Labour in the 20s.

    Mike Smithson



    Labour still down at 26pc with Angus Reid

    Wednesday, March 17th, 2010

    Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 17 Mar 11
    LABOUR 26% 26%
    LIB DEMS 21% 18%
    LAB to CON swing from 2005 8% 8%

    Lib Dems up three as others slump

    The latest in the exclusive Politicalbetting/Angus Reid polling series is just out and shows one big major change – a slump in support for “others” to 14%. This is the lowest it has ever been and brings AR more into line with other firms.

    Alas for Brown Central – the move has not helped Labour who remain at 26% – trailing thirteen points behind the Tories.

    The big winners here, of course, are the Lib Dems which is probably down to the weekend’s conference.

    At these level, of course, Cameron would be heading for a very substantial commons majority and it would be hard to see how Mr. Brown could continue as Labour leader.

    AR, Canada’s most accurate pollster, has traditionally had Labour with the lowest shares and this remains. A main reason is the way the past vote weightings work – AR does not allow for a false recall correction which, with other firms, can give Labour a 2 point boost.

    Last week’s AR poll helped reinforce the pound on the currency markets – will the same happen again?

    A link to the full data will go up here this evening.

    UPDATE:- Others in the poll were:-
    SNP = 2
    PC = 1
    UKIP = 5
    Green = 2
    BNP = 4

    UPDATE: Full data tables are here.

    Mike Smithson