Archive for the 'Podcasts' Category

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: End of term review

Thursday, July 27th, 2017

As Westminster heads on its summer holidays, Keiran is joined by Polling Matters regulars Leo Barasi and Rob Vance to review the year-to-date.

The trio discuss polling showing that the Tories are now seen as more divided than Labour and they also discuss Chuka Umunna’s recent tweet that seemingly challenged the Labour leadership’s position on Europe. Keiran, Rob and Leo then look at what the myriad of polling on Brexit tells us about public opinion on the subject and indeed whether it matters considering the relative lack of difference in policy on Europe shared by the two main parties in Westminster.

The podcast concludes with each of the panellists explaining what they will be looking out for when Westminster returns in the autumn.

Listen to the episode here:

Follow this week’s guests:

@keiranpedley
@leobarasi
@robvance

Please note: The podcast will now take a three week break for the summer unless a major political story breaks.



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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Jeremy Corbyn is Britain’s most popular politician – but there’s a catch LISTEN

Wednesday, July 19th, 2017

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss exclusive polling from Opinium that looks at how popular a series of frontline British politicians are.

The poll asked a nationally representative sample of UK adults to rate the following politicians on a scale of 0 to 10 on the basis of how favourable they were to them:

  • Jeremy Corbyn
  • Sadiq Khan
  • Yvette Cooper
  • Keir Starmer
  • Emily Thornberry
  • Diane Abbott
  • Ed Miliband
  • Theresa May
  • Boris Johnson
  • David Davis
  • Phillip Hammond
  • Ruth Davidson
  • Michael Gove
  • Amber Rudd
  • Vince Cable
  • Nicola Sturgeon
  • Arlene Foster

Jeremy Corbyn was the winner – but there’s a catch. Listen to the podcast to find out more.

Keiran and Leo also discuss Tony Blair’s recent Brexit intervention and ask whether he is a help or a hindrance to his cause. You can listen to the show below:

Follow this week’s guests:

@Keiranpedley

@leobarasi



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EXCLUSIVE Support for a second Brexit vote is growing and Leavers should be nervous

Monday, July 17th, 2017

Keiran Pedley looks at some exclusive polling from Opinium and asks whether Britain really could remain in the EU after all?

As Tony Blair gave one of his characteristically unwelcome interventions in British politics last week many were asking why he bothers. With parties supporting Brexit winning more than 8 in 10 votes at the recent General Election you could be forgiven for assuming that the former PM’s calls for Brexit to be stopped will fall on deaf ears and the issue is settled.

But is it settled? As I wrote immediately after the election the political circumstances have changed since Brits went to the polls. Public opinion is volatile and with a Labour government now a realistic possibility again there is a path – however small – for Remainers to end up in government. For that to happen, Jeremy Corbyn would either have to change his tune on Brexit or be replaced by someone else. One imagines that only a significant shift in public opinion could make either of those things take place. With the former more likely than the latter.

Increased support for another vote

However, there are some signs that public opinion is shifting, albeit gradually. The PB/Polling Matters podcast has been given access to some exclusive polling from Opinium that has tracked support for a second referendum on EU membership once the terms are known since December 2016.

Once we know what terms the government has negotiated, should there be a second referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU, where voters can choose between leaving under the terms negotiated or remaining in the EU after all?

 

There is something for everyone here. On the one hand public opinion is still against the concept of another vote on Brexit. However, the gap is now 7 points as opposed to 19 in December. The trend is clear – support for another vote is growing. The cause? Remain voters are increasingly likely to support another vote – as the chart below demonstrates.

However, none of this puts Brexit in immediate danger. The above chart shows that Leave voters are resolute in their opposition to another vote and there is no major political figure (presumably it would have to be a Labour one…) prepared to break ranks and demand one. To suggest that Britain remaining in the E.U. after all is anything more than a long shot would be dishonest.

Yet if I was a Leave supporter I would be nervous.

One aspect the above poll question does not capture is the strength of feeling on the issue. Another question asked by Opinium last weekend attempts to do just that. The public were asked how committed they were to Remain or Leave. The results are below.

Which of the following statements best describes your view on Brexit?

  1. I strongly feel that the UK should remain in the E.U. 34%
  2. I think the UK should remain in the E.U. but don’t feel that strongly about it 12%
  3. I am open minded on whether Britain remains in the E.U. or leaves 8%
  4. I think the UK should leave the E.U. but don’t feel that strongly about it 8%
  5. I strongly feel that the UK should leave the E.U. 33%
  6. Don’t know 6%

What we can see here is that the public appear to be split into thirds. 34% strongly feel that the UK should remain in the E.U., 33% strongly feel the UK should leave and the rest are either lukewarm in their commitment to either side, don’t know or are open minded. Far from there being a ‘52%’ and a ‘48%’, there is in fact a large chunk of people in the middle waiting to see what will happen.

It should be said that right now the strength of feeling is actually on the Leave side. 72% of Leave voters strongly feel that the UK should leave the E.U. whereas 65% of Remain voters strongly feel we should remain. This means that 30% of Remain voters are in this ‘middle third’ on the issue compared to just 22% of Leave voters. If exit negotiations go well then support for Brexit ought to consolidate rather than fall away.

So why did I say I would be nervous if I was a Leave supporter? Well, in the face of growing support for another vote among Remainers, Theresa May’s government is weak. It is not clear that the Conservatives will control the timing of the next General Election and that makes events unpredictable. Meanwhile, we haven’t truly entered the period of ‘Brexit negotiations proper’ yet, we don’t know how they will go and how public opinion will react. Jeremy Corbyn managed to turn Labour’s poll rating round in a matter of weeks during the General Election. Is it so implausible that a similar shift against Brexit could happen in the next two years?

Of course it isn’t. It isn’t difficult to foresee circumstances where Brexit goes badly and a ‘perfect storm’ of support for another referendum and opposition to Brexit itself creeps up on a weak Conservative government. Just as ‘the 48%’ doesn’t exist, neither does ‘the 52%’. A large body of UK public opinion sits in shades of grey on Brexit and events can shift them one way or the other on the issue.

Brexit seems secure – for now

However, I still agree with those that say Brexit being stopped altogether is very unlikely. Such a specific set of events need to take place that it is almost unimaginable. Yet the unimaginable has been so consistently delivered in the past few years I feel we can rule nothing out. The government would be wise to seek some sort of comprehensive transitional arrangement with the E.U. and agree it as soon as possible. Therein lies stability. Without that stability we are the fall of one weak and divided Conservative government away from all bets being off.

Keiran Pedley

Keiran Pedley presents the PB/Polling Matters podcast. You can listen to the latest episode below. He tweets about politics and public opinion at @keiranpedley

Note on the poll: Opinium surveyed a nationally representative sample of 2,005 UK UK adults between the 7th and 11th July. Full tables will appear on their website in due course.

 



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New PB/Polling Matters podcast: Support for a 2nd Brexit vote grows (plus THOSE Trump emails)

Wednesday, July 12th, 2017

On this week’s podcast Keiran is joined once more by US political analyst Jon-Christopher Bua.

Keiran and JC discuss the political fallout in the States following scandalous revelations from emails. However, this time they are not Clinton emails but those of Donald Trump Jr. Keiran and JC also discuss what Corbyn’s surge might mean for US politics in the future and why America doesn’t have universal healthcare even though some polls suggest that the concept is more popular than you might think.

Later in the show, Keiran unveils some exclusive polling from Opinium showing that UK public opinion seems to be steadily edging towards support for a second referendum on EU membership. Opposition to another vote still leads by 7 points (48%-41% against) but this is down from a 19 point deficit in December. There will be more to come on this from Keiran on PB in the coming days but for now you will have to download the podcast to find out more.

Listen to this week’s podcast here:

Follow this week’s guests here:

@keiranpedley 

@jcbua



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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Do voters think Corbyn is ready to be PM?

Wednesday, July 5th, 2017

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Habib Butt and Leo Barasi to discuss the latest polling news and analysis of the week.

Key topics discussed this week include:

1) What the polls tell us about the state of the parties

2) Who the voters think would make the best PM and what the numbers mean

3) Exclusive Polling Matters / Opinium numbers on why people voted as they did in June and whether Corbyn is ready to be PM or not

4) How Remainers and Brextiers like their steak

Listen to this week’s episode below

Follow this week’s guests:

@keiranpedley

@leobarasi

@tseofpb



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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Queen’s Speech, Brexit negotiations, LD leadership and the importance of the youth vote

Wednesday, June 21st, 2017

On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Dr Mark Pack of Lib Dem Newswire and Adam Drummond of Opinium.

The team discuss this week’s Queen’s Speech and the start of the Brexit negotiations and what happens next for the Lib Dems now that Tim Farron has resigned.

The panel also discuss Ipsos Mori’s data on ‘who voted for who’ at the General Election and what impact younger voters might have on British politics in the coming years.

Listen here

Follow this week’s guests:

@keiranpedley

@agkd123

@markpack



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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: GE17 debrief. Breaking down the YouGov model & focus on Northern Ireland

Wednesday, June 14th, 2017

This week’s podcast is split into two parts.

In part one, Keiran chats with Ben Lauderdale from the LSE. Ben was behind the infamous YouGov model which turned out to be so successful. He explains how the model works, what it tells us about the campaign and British politics more generally and where the polling industry goes from here.

In part two, Keiran is joined by Mick Fealty of Slugger O’Toole to discuss what the DUP might want from the Tories and what any potential deal might mean for the future of the Northern Ireland peace process. Mick gives an interesting perspective on why he is worried about the peace process but still remains optimistic for the future of Northern Ireland.

Keiran then finishes by giving his thoughts on the election and the state of play in British politics

LISTEN HERE

Follow this week’s guests here:

@keiranpedley

@benjamin_lauderdale

@mickfealty

 

 



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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Election eve special

Wednesday, June 7th, 2017

On a special eve of election podcast Keiran is joined by Politicalbetting.com Editor Mike Smithson and Deputy Habib Butt (TSE) to review the campaign, polls, seats to watch tomorrow night and to make some predictions.

Listen here

Follow this week’s guests:

@keiranpedley

@mikesmithsonpb

@tseofpb