Archive for the 'Podcasts' Category

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The latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast: Ireland post referendum & Irish unity, Where are Leave and Remain Voters? David Davis: back-stop or back-down?

Thursday, June 7th, 2018

The PB / Polling Matters podcast returns! On this week’s episode, Keiran is joined by Irish journalist and host of ‘The Irish Passport’ podcast Naomi O’Leary to discuss the fallout from the recent referendum on abortion and where Ireland goes from here. Naomi gives her take on how Ireland has come to change so much in such a relatively short space of time and the relationship between the Irish people and the Catholic church, alongside perspectives on Brexit in Ireland.

Keiran is then joined by Dr Kevin Cunningham, lecturer in statistics, pollster with Ireland Thinks and former Targeting and Analysis manager for the UK Labour Party. Kevin also gives his perspective on the recent Irish referendum and looks at polling data on a united Ireland. Kevin goes on to discuss his recent work with Ian Warren of Election Data, looking at the breakdown of Remain and Leave voters in UK parliamentary constituencies, telling us what it has told him about Brexit and politics in Westminster.

Finally, Keiran gives his take on today’s battle between Theresa May and David Davis.

 

Follow this week’s guests:






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Pro-Brexit anti-Lords poll splashed by the Mail comes under fire for “loaded” questions

Thursday, May 24th, 2018

Leo Barasi of the PB/Polling Matters podcast sets out his reasons

Leo Barasi, a regular with Keiran Pedley on the PB/Polling Matters Podcasts is no stranger to PBers and his is always worth listening to.

He’s posted on his “Noise of the Crowd” blog observations about the ComRes poll that featured in yesterday’s Daily Mail. He writes:

The fundamental problem is that the questions were nearly all one-sided agree/disagree questions, with each one loaded against the Lords and Remainers. A couple of examples:

It would be wrong for the House of Lords to try and thwart Brexit [“thwart”!]”

“It is wrong that the House of Lords has already voted against the government on Brexit 14 times”

“There are currently 780 members of the Lords compared to 650 MPs in the Commons. This is too many”

If you really want to measure public opinion you ask a question that presents both sides of an argument equally, then allow respondents to choose which they are closer to. Or if you really have to ask agree/disagree questions, the collection of the questions should be balanced so you’re not pushing a particular argument and you can compare the skewed questions against each other.

A good guide of a fair poll is that you shouldn’t be able to guess the view of the organisation commissioning the poll from the questions. This clearly fails that.

The poll was done for a new pro-Brexit campaign called “We, the People”.

I have invited ComRes to respond.

Mike Smithson




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Tonight’s NEW PB/ Polling Matters podcast: What drives how we vote + public opinion on a customs union & a united Ireland

Wednesday, May 16th, 2018

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the demographic and ideological trends shaping our politics and how they drive voting intention.

Keiran and Leo also look at public opinion on customs unions and the impact that polling is having on Theresa May’s calculations when it comes to Northern Ireland.

Follow this week’s guests

@keiranpedley

@leobarasi



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PB/Polling Matters podcast looking at the results of the local elections and the implications

Saturday, May 5th, 2018

Keiran Pedley takes us through Thursday’s Local Election results, calling out the results we should pay attention to and asking what this all means for the main parties at Westminster.

Follow Keiran at @Keiranpedley



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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Rudd resigns, immigration, Trump’s visit, plus a look ahead to the local elections

Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018

On this week’s podcast, Leo Barasi returns and discusses the latest glut of voting intention polls with Keiran Pedley. Leo and Keiran look at what is behind the differences in voting intention figures between pollsters, how Corbyn’s personal poll ratings compare historically and the importance of the economy is in current polling.

The podcast then turns to Rudd’s resignation this week, with an in-depth look at public opinion on her departure and immigration more generally. Topics covered include whether the public think our immigration system is fair, too strict and specifically what the public think about a ‘hostile environment’ policy.

Also on the show, Leo and Keiran discuss polling on President Trump’s upcoming ‘working visit’ and look ahead to the local elections this week.

Follow this week’s podcasters:

@leobarasi

@keiranpedley

NOTE – There will be a bonus podcast this week on Friday after the local elections.



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Tonight’s PB/Polling Matters podcast featuring Professor Colin Rallings

Thursday, April 26th, 2018

On this week’s podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Colin Rallings of the University of Plymouth to look ahead to next week’s local elections. Rallings breaks down which results to look out for and what they might mean for the future with some interesting insight into how the UKIP vote continues to unwind across the country and how Labour might do in London following today’s YouGov poll for Queen Mary University.

Keiran Pedley





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Tonight on the PB/Polling Matters podcast – Prof Colin Rallings on next week’s local elections

Wednesday, April 25th, 2018

With the local elections only a week ago I am very pleased to alert to you this evening’s PB/Polling Matters podcast when Keiran Pedley’s guest will be Professor Colin Rallings who with Professor Michael Thrasher are just about the country’s leading experts on local elections. Prof Rallings will also be known to those who watch the ITV general election programmes.

This is something of a first and I think that the podcast format developed by Keiran enables the level of probing and analysis that’s not available elsewhere.

We’ll also have this morning the latest QMUL London YouGov poll which should give pointers to how the elections in boroughs in the capital are going. This is due out at 11am and I plan to post as soon as possible afterwards.

The podcast should be ready later in the evening.

Mike Smithson




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Latest PB/Polling Matters podcast: Are you racist? Syrian airstrikes & the Lords report on polling

Wednesday, April 18th, 2018

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Matt Singh (Number Cruncher) and Adam Drummond (Opinium) to discuss:

1) Why voting intention polls and perceptions of party leaders seem to be moving in different directions

2) Reactions to the Windrush scandal and how pollsters deal with sensitive questions around immigration

3) An exclusive survey from Opinium for PB that shows 1 in 10 Brits believe the Russian military accusation that Britain staged the Douma chemical attack in Syria

4) What the Lords has to say about the future of polling and how pollsters should react

You can find data tables for the Opinium poll on Syria here

Follow this week’s guests:

@keiranpedley

@MattSingh_

@AGKD123