Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category

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LAB takes clear leads in the GB polls but Scotland remains a problem

Monday, July 16th, 2018


Wikipedia

Just 8 years ago it won 41 Scottish seats – latest polls have that down to 1

The two GB polls over the weekend from Deltapoll and Opinium were both very good for LAB showing clear leads which weren’t down to its share increasing but the biggest shares for UKIP since GE2017.

Certainly based on these figures if there was an early general election then Corbyn’s party would be in a strong position to become top party although an overall majority might be more of a struggle.

An issue, which I’ve raised before is that Scotland remains a massive problem for the party. We don’t see many Scotland only polls but the Survation one that came out at the end of last week was very much in line other surveys – the SNP progressing, the Tories in second place with Labour in third.

Even at GE2010 when LAB lost its UK-wide majority 41 of the 59 seats north of the border returned Labour MPs. The Scottish seat projections based on the latest polls have this down to a single MP. What used to be a certain stronghold is in danger of being wiped out.

In a House of Commons of 650 seats Corbyn’s LAB really needs to get closer to the LAB 41 seat GE2010 haul in Scotland. Unless it can do the swing needs to be higher in England and Wales.

Also we are just under four years away from the next general election and it is hard to see TMay, or her successor, using the processes laid down in the Fixed Term Parliaments Act to go early.

I don’t buy the argument that a new CON leader would press the general election button even if the blue team returned to double digit leads.

Mike Smithson




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If Trump bothers to read UK polls he won’t be pleased about how negatively he’s viewed in the UK

Thursday, July 12th, 2018

Both him & Putin viewed with almost the same level of unfavourably

The football is over bar the third place play off and over the next couple of days the visit by the US President will dominate the media

To mark this YouGov have just issued latest favourability ratings with a focus on Trump and Putin. I doubt if the latter gives a monkeys but from what we know about Trump this would infuriate him.

What a tough time TMay has had over the past few days. Everything seems to be coming together for her – one problem after another.

Also today YouGov had LAB back in the lead.

Mike Smithson




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Across the UK political divide voters regard Theresa May as a much better leader than Donald Trump

Thursday, July 12th, 2018

Comparing him with the PM

There’s little enthusiasm someone like Trump as British PM

To coincide with the Trump visit the latest ICM/Guardian poll has a series of findings examining the attitudes of British voters to the current incumbent at the White House. The responses to two of the questions are featured above with breakdown on party support.

The top one, comparing Trump with TMay, is interesting in that generally backers of parties other than the Tories are reluctant to favour the PM. Not so when Trump is the one being compared. Across the divide faced with a choice TMay gets overwhelming support.

To me the Tory split is particularly interesting especially in view of the huge divide that there is within the Tory party on the approach to Brexit.

The second one seeks to get reaction to having someone like Trump as the occupant of Number 10. Again the views are very clear.

Mike Smithson




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The danger for LAB is that its equivocation over Brexit could be alienating its GE2017 tactical voters

Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018

LAB drops to a its lowest share this parliament

There’s a new YouGov poll out this morning that has LAB down at 37% which equals its lowest share in any public poll since GE2017. That this should happen while the Tories are in almost total internal war over the Brexit negotiations might seem surprising.

This is just one poll but the overall trend is very clear – we’ve moved from a situation when there were almost solid Labour leads to one where the blue team is on top.

    Maybe a reason that this is happening is that Corbyn’s LAB is finding it hard retaining the tactical anti Brexit voters of June 8th last year.

For one of the key dynamics of a GE2017 was that in spite of its ambivalent approach to Brexit it was still able to attract the anti-Brexit tactical vote. There’s a good analysis here.

In the large sample Ashcroft poll taken in June 2017 8% of LAB voters said Brexit was the main reason why they’d voted for Corbyn’s party. That potentially is a large slab of voters who could move away from the party.

On a personal note I was one of those tactical voters in a tight marginal and helped LAB make one of its gains from the Tories. I can’t see myself supporting a Corbyn-led party next time.

Today’s YouGov has 71% of LAB voters saying they believe that Brexit was wrong with just 21% saying it was right.

Mike Smithson




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Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead

Friday, June 22nd, 2018


Chart – Survation

By 48% to 25% those polled want a referendum on the final deal

Tomorrow’s the second anniversary of the Brexit referendum and expect a number of polls seeking to gauge opinion now.

First out is Survation for Good Morning Britain which finds that if the referendum was rerun today the UK would remain in the EU, for the first time since March with Survation.

Leave 47% (-2); Remain 53% (+2)

Significant percentages (36%-43%) of respondents have a ‘limited’ understanding of the Customs Union, Single Market and the difference between them.

  • However, more respondents identified the correct definition of single market (38%) in comparison to the correct definition of Customs Union (just 17%).

  • More respondents prefer a ‘soft’ to a ‘hard’ Brexit (43% vs 37%).

  • Nearly half (47%) believe that leaving the EU without a deal would be bad for Britain (compared to 32% for ‘good’) and only 35% of respondents believe Brexit will be good for the UK economy (compared to 39% who said it will be bad).

  • Nearly half (48%) of respondents support a referendum on the final deal (compared to 25% opposed) and 40% believe that there will be a Brexit ‘dividend’ (compared to 37% who felt the opposite).

 

Mike Smithson




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Despite an overwhelming majority of voters thinking Brexit is going badly, a similar overwhelming majority still expect Britain to leave the EU

Tuesday, June 12th, 2018

On Saturday I alerted PBers to the fact that 70% of voters thought Brexit was going badly, a near identical amount, 73%, expect the Britain to leave the European Union.

For those hoping the original polling might be a precursor to Brexit being stopped are set to be disappointed. It should give great comfort to Leavers that no matter what voters expect the referendum result to be enacted.

Some Remainers may wish to paraphrase a Cambridge educated classicist ‘Those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad. We must be mad, literally mad, as a nation to be permitting a decision that the nation thinks is going badly.’

TSE



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The polling that should give great succour to Trump

Monday, June 11th, 2018

The above chart I found really interesting. Trump is retaining his support that is unmatched bar by George W Bush, by the hopefully unique set of circumstances that was 9/11.

Despite the general hostility directed towards Trump this is quite an achievement by Trump. His supporters are very loyal and shifting him from the White House in 2020 will be difficult, as it usually is with incumbent Presidents.

Of those eight Presidents who first became President after being elected in their own right and retained 74% and over of their support after 500 days only two didn’t win re-election. George Bush Senior, lost his re-election campaign and JFK, tragically, didn’t live long enough to fight a re-election campaign.

TSE



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Theresa May has finally united the country on Brexit

Saturday, June 9th, 2018

An overwhelming majority think Brexit is going badly.

Brexit has appeared to be the issue that tears the United Kingdom asunder yet the finding by YouGov shows there’s one aspect that is uniting the country. 73% of the country think Brexit is going badly with even an overwhelming majority of both Remainers and Leavers saying it is going badly.

Whilst critics of Mrs May might use these findings to criticise her these findings could help her.

With expectations very low on Brexit a moderately successful deal on Brexit has the potential to be seen a very good deal which leads to boost for Mrs May and the Tories. After all success equals performance minus anticipation.

TSE

PS – A big shout out to the 4% who thought Brexit would go badly but think it is going well. Exactly how low were their expectations?