Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category

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Labour reduce the Tory lead to 23% with YouGov in the most incredible polling night I can ever remember

Saturday, April 22nd, 2017

 

The polling that made me swear out loud. Scotland could have 12 (Twelve) Tory MPs

Betting post – William Hill: Total Conservative Party Seats In Scotland Over/Under Over 9.5 at 20/1 – FILL YOUR BOOTS

The real story of tonight is the cratering of UKIP which is helping the Tories, for those in Labour who think things can only get better…..

There are some other polls due tonight, I’ll try and update the thread when they come out.

TSE



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Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are on course for an absolute hammering if the polls are right

Saturday, April 22nd, 2017

Since Theresa May announced the general election, we’ve had three polls, with leads of 21%, 24%, and now 19% for the blues. The trend is not Labour’s friend. We might need to come up with a new adjective for  just how rubbish Corbyn is.

This poll presages an absolute shellacking for Labour. If Labour had any sense they’d depose the voter repellent in the next week.

In the write up

Separate analysis by Opinium, which has been tracking the same 2,000 voters throughout this parliament, found that only 53% of those who had said they intended to vote Ukip in February are still planning to do so in the 8 May election, with 30% of them saying they will transfer allegiance to the Tories.

The crumbling of backing for Ukip appears to be the main reason for the dramatic surge in enthusiasm for May’s party. Labour’s fall may be the result of voters who were strongly in favour of Remain in the Brexit referendum last June deserting the party for the anti-Brexit Lib Dems.

When those who now choose the Lib Dems were asked to give the main reason they are deciding to back Tim Farron’s party, 50% said that it was because of its stance on Brexit. Just 6% of Labour voters said Jeremy Corbyn’s stance on Brexit was their main reason for backing Labour.

For me one of the most interesting aspects of this poll is the Lib Dems are on 11%. Due to the house of effects Opinium, the Lib Dems do quite poorly with this pollster, they had the Lib Dems on 4% last summer. So 11% with this pollster is very impressive for Tim Farron’s party.

Depending on the right odds I might fancy a bet on whether we will have at least one poll from a BPC registered pollster to see the Lib Dems ahead of Labour.

Tonight I’m also expecting a GB wide YouGov poll in The Sunday Times and a Scottish poll in one of the Scottish papers.

TSE



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Tories take a 24% lead with YouGov. Can they poll 50% and above?

Wednesday, April 19th, 2017

As Labour head for the mother and father of all shellackings, if Corbyn had any honour or love for Labour he’d stand down now but

TSE

Defection confirmed

 

 

Which means this tweet from 2011 by Corbyn is in no way funny



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If Macron makes it to the final two then surely he’s the next President of France

Tuesday, April 18th, 2017

Latest Macron-Le Pen polling

Latest Macron-Fillon polling

Latest Macron-Melenchon polling

The above tables from the excellent Wikipedia round up of French polls tell a consistent story – whoever of those closest on the first round ends up fighting Macron then the young independent looks set to be the winner.

Melenchon is the only one of the serious contenders who consistently gets into the 40s in hypothetical match-ups against Macron. Fillon fares worst with Le Pen in the middle.

    The big question is whether Macron’s performance in the first round on Sunday can match his polling.

Because he does not come from one of the traditional parties he cannot rely on a well-honed party machine to get the vote out – something that could be crucial.

Last time the turnout levels were very similar in both rounds.

Macron is still the favourite but he’s no longer the 65%+ chance that he was a month ago.

Mike Smithson




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Another day, another 21% poll lead for the Tories, this time with YouGov

Monday, April 17th, 2017

For those of us who thought 25% was Labour’s floor, we might need to start re-evaluating our assumptions. Surely Labour and Corbyn can’t carry on like this, if Corbyn stays as leader until the general election then after the 2020 general election there might not be a Labour party worth saving.

TSE



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Tories take a stonking 21% lead with ComRes, up 4% in month

Saturday, April 15th, 2017

 

This ComRes poll indicates Labour are headed for the mother of all beatings at the next general election. Surely with 20% plus leads Labour members will come to their senses and ditch the electoral liability that is is Corbyn

Which might explain the support for a new centre ground party

ComRes note ‘Two in five British adults (41%) agree that there is a need for a new centre-ground political party in Britain. The majority of Liberal Democrat voters (58%) agree that there is a need for a new centre-ground political party in Britain, as do more than two in five Labour voters (43%), half of UKIP voters (47%) and over one third of Conservatives (35%).’

It appears with a 21% lead for the Tories, Corbyn’s name can’t damage Labour’s brand any further

ComRes write

o   For example, 71% of adults agree with the minimum wage policy attributed to Labour, compared to 68% who agree with the policy attributed to Jeremy Corbyn.

·        Raising the minimum wage to £10 an hour by 2020 has cross-party support, with majorities of voters of each of the main parties agreeing with the policy.

o   More than four in five of Labour voters (88%) and seven in ten UKIP voters (71%) agree. A majority of Conservative also support the policy (51%).  

·        The majority of Conservative voters (57%) disagree with introducing free school meals for all children by introducing VAT on private school fees. The majority of adults who say they will vote for the other main parties – including UKIP (51%) – agree with this policy.

·        More than two in five British adults (44%) say they don’t know whether they agree or disagree with setting up a £500bn national investment bank using £350bn of Government money, compared to 13% or less for the other policies tested. This suggests a lack of knowledge or clarity surrounding the policy among a significant minority of Britons.

·        The Labour Party policies tested are popular amongst those who are not sure who they will vote for if there was a General Election tomorrow. For example seven in ten of unsure voters (71%) agree with the increase in the minimum wage by 2020 (as do 69% of British adults overall).

Methodology Note: ComRes interviewed 2,029 GB adults online between 11th and 13th April 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. Data were also weighted by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model.

TSE



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Who will speak for Millennials?

Monday, April 3rd, 2017

Young voters lack political representation says Keiran Pedley. So who is going to step up?

One of the topics discussed on the latest PB/Polling Matters podcast was the striking difference in views on Brexit by age.

This week saw the first political poll by my company (GfK) for 12 years. One of the questions we asked was whether Brits thought Brexit was the “right decision” or the “wrong decision”. The results can be found in the chart below.

Table 1: Brexit: Right decision / wrong decision (by age)

Our poll this week got most attention for the finding that showed Jeremy Corbyn’s approval rating as low as Donald Trump’s but in my opinion this chart is more important. What it shows is a huge difference in opinion on the future of the country by age. For example, 55% of those aged 18-24 think Brexit was the “wrong decision” whereas 59% of those aged 65 and above think it was the “right decision”.

Brexit is not the only issue that divides Brits by age. Younger Brits also seem to be much more negative about the economic prospects of the country too. Here are some numbers from the same poll looking at economic optimism overall and by age. Once again, the differences are striking.

 

Based on these numbers, it seems that if you are aged 55 and over you are reasonably confident about the economic future of the country and the country’s future more generally. For younger voters the story is very different. It isn’t hard to see why. With wage growth frustratingly weak, tuition fees and rents rising and the property ladder a distant dream for many in their 20s, there is little to be particular optimistic about for millennials post Brexit. Or at least, for many it will feel that way. That’s before we even touch what the retirement age for the average 25 year old is likely to be.

The question is will this frustration manifest itself politically or will it just breed more apathy?

It seems to me that there is an opportunity for a politician or political party to develop a platform for government based on the idea that younger voters have it tough and that needs to change. Many will dismiss this idea for the obvious reason that younger people are much less likely to vote than older people. This is true. But those younger people have parents and grandparents. Perhaps one way the centre-left can reinvigorate itself in Britain is to make inter-generational inequality the centrepiece of its revival, appealing to older voters that their children’s and grandchildren’s futures are at stake if action isn’t taken. It’ll take guts but it is worth a try. Plus, it is also the right thing to do.

So over to you Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. If the British left is going to go down in flames, it might as well do so fighting on behalf of a cause worth fighting for. Or if you won’t, maybe the Lib Dems will. Let’s wait and see.

Keiran Pedley

Keiran Pedley tweets about public opinion and politics at @keiranpedley and is the presenter of the ‘Polling Matters’ podcast. Listen to the latest episode on Brexit and Scotland below.

 



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The Multiplier Effect: Regional, Social and Brexit swing make a bad story worse for Corbyn’s LAB

Saturday, April 1st, 2017

Polling analysis: CON’s getting biggest swings where it matters most

Writing a thread on why Labour might do even worse than headline polling figures suggest feels uncomfortably like kicking a man when he’s down. However, if that’s what’s happening then it needs reporting and interpreting; I am only the messenger. And it is happening. Poll after poll has reported differential swings across regions, social groups and Brexit alignment.

I’ve therefore looked at all the polls published in March to see if we can make sense of what’s going on and where it would lead. The figures I’ve derived are – unless otherwise stated – based on an average of the five companies to have published polls in March’s own average figures for the month.

The national baseline is that the average headline figures for March (together with the swing since the 2015 GE) were:

Con 42.7 (+5.0)
Lab 27.1 (-4.1)
LD 10.2 (+2.1)
UKIP 9.8 (-3.1)

This represents a net 4.5% swing from Lab to Con – though in fact most of the actual movement is the result of voters switching to and from third parties.

This of itself would be bad enough for Labour. Electoral Calculus predicts a Conservative majority of 106 on those vote shares, using the current boundaries. The regional swings however, produce a multiplier effect.

Unfortunately for Labour, their smallest swings mostly come where it helps least. The one exception is Scotland. To describe this as a disaster zone for them is putting it kindly. The way things stand, Scotland has more chance of winning the World Cup than it does of electing a Labour government. Even after the losses of 2015 and 2016, the trend remains downwards, with the firms reporting an average support of just 12%. Two polls (those by ComRes and Mori), had Scottish Labour in fourth place, behind the Lib Dems and in single figures; Mori gave them just 6%. This might be bad news for Scottish Labour councillors but the good news as far as the general election goes is that the party can only lose one seat north of the border, which of course it would.

In England, however, the picture doesn’t pan out so well. A London-only YouGov poll published yesterday found support of Lab 37 / Con 34 / LD 14 / UKIP 9. (These are in fact similar figures to the aggregated London subsamples from the nationwide polls, which is reassuring as to their reliability for other regions). This represents a notional Lab-Con swing of just under 3%, so less than the national average – though in reality it’s more a secondary effect of a 7% Lab-LD swing, mostly in Inner London. Unfortunately, London has an unusually large number of close Lab-held marginals and even a swing of that size would sweep eight seats into the Con column, though in all probability this would be offset by some Con losses to the Lib Dems.

Elsewhere, both Labour and Tory support across the rest of the South – a huge area of the country, almost entirely Blue – is virtually unchanged. Polling for both parties puts them within 1% of where they were at the 2015 general election.

Instead, the areas where the swings are greatest are those which are packed with middle-target marginals: the Midlands, Wales and the North.

Not all firms disaggregate Wales from the Midlands, presumably because of its small population and – unlike Scotland – its tendency to swing more-or-less in line with England. But taking the three regions of Wales, the East Midlands and West Midlands together, produces a swing over that super-region of no less than 7.6%. Put another way, it turns the tidy 5.5% lead that Con had in the 2015 election into a monster 20.7% lead.

Likewise, while the polling is unusually inconsistent, even for subsamples, in the picture painted by the polls for the North, we can see something similar. In 2015, Labour held a 12.4% advantage; that’s now been turned into a lead of about 1.5% for the Conservatives: just shy of a 7% swing. In contrast to London, Labour holds only ten seats in the northern super-region with majorities of less than 3k but holds 22 with majorities of between 3k and 7k (not all over Con).

All this would be bad enough but two other factors are likely to multiply the differential even further (though we should be aware of some element of double-counting here).

Firstly, the swing to Con has come almost entirely from the working class.
Unlike regional voting, the baseline of the 2015 election here is, for obvious reasons, less secure. Even so, Mori carried out a sizable post-election poll which is the best information we have. Using that, it seems that since the election, the ABC1 group has swung to the Tories by just 1.6%, whereas the C2DE group has swung by some 8%. As the Tory target seats as the party heads from comfortable win into landslide territory will tend to become increasingly working-class, the vote is again exactly where TMay needs it.

And secondly, returning to the top of the polling data, polls are consistently reporting that between a quarter and a third of the 2015GE UKIP vote has defected to the Conservatives. It was the small and medium northern and midlands towns which won it for Leave and while the match isn’t a perfect fit – the Labour seats are too diverse for that – it’s still likely to have a boosting effect to the swing to Con where it matters.

Is there any good news at all for Labour? Yes: two items. One is that the Tories are currently hitting the sweet spot. If the polls shift, they probably won’t be; the multiplier effect works both ways. And the other is that there is probably quite a simple solution to bringing about such a change.

David Herdson