Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category

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Bad news for Damian Green, the police have a 110% lead on net trust ratings over government ministers

Saturday, December 2nd, 2017

I like the Ipsos MORI veracity index, because they’ve been polling on it since 1983 so we can see the long term trends and put the current figures into context.

In light of current events involving Damian Green, in the court of public of opinion the First Secretary of State might be toast. The police have a net trust rating of plus 51% whereas government ministers have a net ratings of negative 59%, even bankers and estate agents have much better net ratings than Government ministers, heck even lawyers have a net positive ratings.

The recent scandals at Westminster seem not to have had much impact on the perceptions of politicians.

Finally it turns out the country hasn’t had enough of experts.

TSE



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Toxic Theresa’s ratings hit rock bottom with Ipsos MORI

Friday, December 1st, 2017

My view has been to not just focus on the voting intention figures but look at the supplementaries as well as they give a better point to how a general election might pan out, in June if you had focused solely on the leadership ratings and the direction of travel therein you would have seen the Tories were not on course for a majority, as Theresa May’s lead over Corbyn was smaller than David Cameron’s lead over Ed Miliband in April/May 2015.

The leadership figures are quite damning for Theresa May considering where they were a few months ago and her eye watering leads over Corbyn. Not since Gordon Brown and the election that never was can I recall such a spectacular fall for a Prime Minister.

Ipsos MORI note

The new Political Monitor also asks the public about the image of both the Conservative and Labour parties. Nearly three-quarters (73% – up 21 points since last year) see the Conservatives as ‘divided’, which compares with the party’s worst score when David Cameron was Prime Minister of 68% in 2013. Twenty-seven percent also say the Conservatives have a “good team of leaders”, down 20 points and again lower than David Cameron’s worst score in 2012 at 36%, and 43% say they are “fit to govern”, down 10 points.

When it comes to Labour they have generally overall improved their positive images over the last year however their ratings are mostly either shy of or not much better than they were under Ed Miliband’s leadership. 

The budget was seen as a net positive for the country (net +3%), but not for individual voters (net -1%). For those hoping Michael Gove becomes Chancellor or even First Lord of the Treasury the polling seems to confirm he’s not very popular with the electorate, even among Tory voters.

TSE

 



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The first reaction to the Royal Engagement from YouGov and Prince Charles looks great for the Republican movement

Wednesday, November 29th, 2017

TSE



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From YouGov: The budget in five charts

Saturday, November 25th, 2017

TSE



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For the 3rd successive month YouGov Brexit tracker has “wrong to leave” in lead

Friday, November 10th, 2017

The chart shows the latest YouGov Brexit tracker in which the question is whether those polled think that in insight it was wrong or right for Britain to have voted to leave EU.

This is not asking how people would vote in a new referendum or whether the Brexit process should be stopped. Keiran Pedley has suggested that the use of the word “wrong” might be influencing the response which is why this result can be different from other polls that ask about Brexit.

No doubt many remainers take the view that the vote to Leave was wrong but believe that the decision has been taken and that we should proceed.

Like in all polls the phrasing of the question can have a big impact.

With a tracker the same question is asked in the same manner every time so we can make valid comparisons.

Because the movement with each new poll is relatively small and within the margin of error it is important to look at the overall trend which is why I produce the chart.

Right to Leave last had a lead in August while TMay was still on vacation.

Mike Smithson




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The first poll of November finds a tad of comfort for Mrs. May and raises questions of LAB

Friday, November 10th, 2017

YouGov/Times carried out Tues/Wed
CON 40%=
LAB 43%+1
LD 6%-2

YouGov Times poll “best PM” ratings
TMay 34%+1
Corbyn 31%-2
DK 35%

YouGov Times poll – should TMay stand down?
Should 32% -6
Should not 42%+3
Changes on month ago

44% tell YouGov Times poll that TMay should sack Boris against 26% saying she should keep him. Rest of sample don’t know

With Mrs. May having to say goodbye to two of her 22 cabinet ministers in less than a week you’d have thought that Labour and Corbyn would have seen an increase in their position in the polls.

Well this morning sees the first published poll of the month with fieldwork carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday and the numbers are nothing like as bad as the Tories must have feared and nothing like as good as LAB must have hoped.

Sure on voting intention LAB sees a minuscule within margin of error one point uplift but on “best PM” TMay extends her lead.

Labour’s failure to capitalise on the Tory turmoil should be a cause for concern and certainly raises question about the red team’s leadership.

    We are a long way from Corbyn’s Glastonbury hubris in late June when he was telling people he’d be PM by Christmas.

Mike Smithson




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The big question is how much Corbyn’s LAB can capitalise on the Tory turmoil

Thursday, November 9th, 2017

Will the red team start to replicate its 2012 polling performance

With the Tory difficulties that appear to mount by the day the time has come surely for Corbyn’s LAB to make significant advances in the polls.

What’s been quite striking since June when LAB exceeded expectations is how the gap between the two main parties has remained relatively constant and on the low side. There’s been the odd poll showing a 6 point gap but mostly it has been down at 1 or 2 points.

    Compare this with the first half of 2012, the year that saw the “Omnishambles” budget with the granny and pasty taxes, when for a time most polls had LAB with double digit leads some as high as 15 points.

Remember those 2012 polls mattered for nothing three years later when Cameron won his surprise majority.

I’d argue that in terms of perceptions of government competence what has been happening at the moment is far worse than what happened five years ago.

Will the upcoming November polls reflect this? We shall see.

Mike Smithson




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Month by month during 2017 how the “Leaving EU right” lead has moved in YouGov’s Brexit tracker

Friday, October 27th, 2017

There’s a new YouGov poll out which has LAB retaining its 2 points lead over CON. The survey also included the firm’s regular trackers on opinion in relation to Brexit.

In broad terms this has Brexit right at 43% (up 1) with Brexit wrong at 45% (same) so really not much change. The big picture is seen in the chart above – the nation remains broadly divided with the monthly average “right to leave” lead for only the second month moving into negative territory.

This polling, because it has been asked in the same form so often, is establishing itself as the leading polling indicator. There are simply many more data points.

The monthly changes are not huge but taking a month of polls rather than single ones gives us a better sense of the trend.

Mike Smithson