Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category

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UKIP’s dreadful YouGov party favourability ratings now get even worse

Saturday, December 3rd, 2016

Only the Tories see an improvement in their net ratings

The last time this polling was carried our was in August and since then a lot of things have happened. Note that the fieldwork for this latest polling took place on Tuesday and Wednesday so before the Richmond Park by-election.

UKIP

In August what was then Farage’s party had 24%-62% Favourable-Unfavourable, a net minus 38%. That’s now minus 44%.

CON

The August Tory figures were 34-53 so a net minus of 19%. That’s now down to -16% so an improvement of 3 points for TMay’s party.

LAB

The August polling took place during the leadership election and before Corbyn was re-elected. Then LAB was 28-56 a net minus of 28%. That’s now moved 29-59 a net minus of 30%

LD

Farron’s party was 27-51 which has move to 29-55%

SNP

The SNP was 24-53 in August. That’s now moved to 22-57. So a change from a net minus 29% to minus 35%

Mike Smithson




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New entrant Ed Balls moves immediately to 3rd place in latest YouGov favourability ratings

Thursday, December 1st, 2016

Both Theresa May & Corbyn see drops

Here they are – the latest YouGov favourability ratings, the polling where the site has chosen who/what should be included.

The first time we did this was in August and since then all the UK politicians have seen net drops. Ed Balls, included after his Strictly successes, was not part of the August list.

In the summer TMay was still enjoying her honeymoon and had a net +12%. That’s now down to +5% with 46% favourable to 41% unfavourable. Boris has seen a decline from -5% in August to -13% now (38-51). Meanwhile, just on his heels, comes Strictly star Ed Balls with 32-47%. So he’s in negative territory but nothing like as bad as Mr. Corbyn who has 26-51 representing a net move since last time of minus 10.

Tony Blair might be thinking of some sort of UK come-back but his ratings, 14-74 are awful and he is only just ahead of Putin and Trump.

Donald Trump gets the best numbers from GE2015 UKIP voters who split 45% to 49%. They also have the most favourable view of Mr. Putin.

Mike Smithson




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TMay moves to negative ratings in Scotland while fewer Scots now back independence than at the 2014 referendum

Wednesday, November 30th, 2016

first-minister-hosts-prime-minister-theresa-may-youtube

Given the huge importance of Scotland as the UK moves towards BREXIT there’s a new Scotland only YouGov poll – the first since August.

These are some of the key points:-

The rise and rise of Scots CON leader Ruth Davidson continues

Scottish Greens now into double figures on Regional List voting



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And now what you really wanted to know about LEAVE and REMAIN voters – how often they change their underpants/knickers

Thursday, November 24th, 2016

survey-report

Remember: Normal polling margins of error apply



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Who should we include in the next PB/YouGov Favourability ratings?

Friday, November 18th, 2016

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In August PB was able to have its own YouGov favourability ratings. I am pleased to say that we are now in a position to go forward with a similar survey.

Last time we had:-

Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Vladimir Putin
Angela Merkel
Conservative Party
Labour Party
Liberal Democrats
UKIP
SNP
Theresa May
Boris Johnson
David Davis
Phillip Hammond
Jeremy Corbyn
Tim Farron
David Cameron
MPs generally
Your MP

Clearly some of these are no longer relevant although I would like to continue with quite a few of them so we can make comparisons.

Just looking at the list who should be taken out and who should be included.

Your suggestions would be most helpful.

Mike Smithson




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The LD demand for a 2nd EURef could have similar potency as being totally opposed to the 2003 invasion of Iraq

Friday, November 18th, 2016

YouGov: LDs could edge in front of LAB if it was only party with such a promise

We all remember how in late 2002 and 2003 that the IDS-led Tories gave their backing to Blair’s invasion of Iraq. The Charles Kennedy-led LDs were the only national party to oppose and this stance stance helped them to their best ever performance at GE2005.

We’ve now got a similar situation with BREXIT. May’s Tories have totally dished the idea and Labour’s position, like all things these Corbyn/McDonnell days, is ambivalent. The LDs are saying that there should be a second referendum when the actual terms are agreed.

This, it might be recalled, was the Boris Johnson position in February when he finally came out and chose to back LEAVE.

In some new polling published overnight YouGov has tested the proposition in the form set out in the chart above and the results should provide encouragement to Farron’s party.

Amongst 2016 REMAIN voters the split was
CON 24
LAB 23
LD 42
UKIP 1

This is all hypothetical, of course, and there are a host of objections you can make to such findings.

In the big battle for Richmond Park, a week on Thursday, the LDs are going very strong on BREXIT in an area where this idea should go down well. Whether it will be enough to shift the incumbent MP with a big majority I do not know.

Mike Smithson




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ComRes Indy/SMirror poll finds sharp rise in the economic trust lead for May/Hamond over Corbyn/McDonnell

Saturday, November 12th, 2016

comres1

In March the LAB pair were a net 16% behind CON leadeship – that’s now 33%

Ahead of the Autumn statement, May & Hammond are seen as much more trusted on the than both Corbyn & McDonnell and Cameron & Osborne.

    The brutal fact is that the twice elected leader hasn’t got an earthly with numbers like these. The vast influx of new members into the party since GE2015 have made the main opposition party unelectable

As is repeated so often an opposition leader and party cannot be behind on both personal ratings and the economy.

Ahead of Hammond’s first autumn statement more than half of sample say that the government should delay major spending decisions until after the UK has agreed the terms of leaving the European Union, while three in ten think the government should go ahead with these decisions (53% v 30%).

A majority say that the government should prioritise increasing public spending over the next few years rather than cutting it (53% v 23%).

There are gloomy view about the world with Trump as president.

comres2

Mike Smithson




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Donald Trump might be engaging in some polling denial

Sunday, November 6th, 2016

Is the GOP nominee flying blind in the swing states?

One of the fun things about the final few days of any election campaign, be it a US Presidential race or a UK general election is seeing where the leaders/candidates are spending the final few days of the campaign as it feels you glean where the battleground states are based on the candidate’s private polling which in turn gives you an indication of the final result.

A cursory look at Trump’s schedule for the final few days seems to be that of a candidate on course for victory. But following on from reports a few days ago that Team Trump was refusing to pay their pollster $750,000 which might explain his campaigning in interesting places as per the tweet below.

So why would Team Trump stop polling? Well they do have form on ignoring bad polling in the past.

On this evidence I’m going to infer that Trump has some bad private polling and that has led to the current contretemps with his pollster. Donald Trump, the non career politician, in my opinion possesses the temperament of someone who doesn’t react well to bad news, polling denial is often synonomous with a losing candidate. In the early hours of Wednesday morning we’re going to find out if my supposition is right.

TSE