Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category

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Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead

Friday, June 22nd, 2018


Chart – Survation

By 48% to 25% those polled want a referendum on the final deal

Tomorrow’s the second anniversary of the Brexit referendum and expect a number of polls seeking to gauge opinion now.

First out is Survation for Good Morning Britain which finds that if the referendum was rerun today the UK would remain in the EU, for the first time since March with Survation.

Leave 47% (-2); Remain 53% (+2)

Significant percentages (36%-43%) of respondents have a ‘limited’ understanding of the Customs Union, Single Market and the difference between them.

  • However, more respondents identified the correct definition of single market (38%) in comparison to the correct definition of Customs Union (just 17%).

  • More respondents prefer a ‘soft’ to a ‘hard’ Brexit (43% vs 37%).

  • Nearly half (47%) believe that leaving the EU without a deal would be bad for Britain (compared to 32% for ‘good’) and only 35% of respondents believe Brexit will be good for the UK economy (compared to 39% who said it will be bad).

  • Nearly half (48%) of respondents support a referendum on the final deal (compared to 25% opposed) and 40% believe that there will be a Brexit ‘dividend’ (compared to 37% who felt the opposite).

 

Mike Smithson




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Despite an overwhelming majority of voters thinking Brexit is going badly, a similar overwhelming majority still expect Britain to leave the EU

Tuesday, June 12th, 2018

On Saturday I alerted PBers to the fact that 70% of voters thought Brexit was going badly, a near identical amount, 73%, expect the Britain to leave the European Union.

For those hoping the original polling might be a precursor to Brexit being stopped are set to be disappointed. It should give great comfort to Leavers that no matter what voters expect the referendum result to be enacted.

Some Remainers may wish to paraphrase a Cambridge educated classicist ‘Those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad. We must be mad, literally mad, as a nation to be permitting a decision that the nation thinks is going badly.’

TSE



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The polling that should give great succour to Trump

Monday, June 11th, 2018

The above chart I found really interesting. Trump is retaining his support that is unmatched bar by George W Bush, by the hopefully unique set of circumstances that was 9/11.

Despite the general hostility directed towards Trump this is quite an achievement by Trump. His supporters are very loyal and shifting him from the White House in 2020 will be difficult, as it usually is with incumbent Presidents.

Of those eight Presidents who first became President after being elected in their own right and retained 74% and over of their support after 500 days only two didn’t win re-election. George Bush Senior, lost his re-election campaign and JFK, tragically, didn’t live long enough to fight a re-election campaign.

TSE



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Theresa May has finally united the country on Brexit

Saturday, June 9th, 2018

An overwhelming majority think Brexit is going badly.

Brexit has appeared to be the issue that tears the United Kingdom asunder yet the finding by YouGov shows there’s one aspect that is uniting the country. 73% of the country think Brexit is going badly with even an overwhelming majority of both Remainers and Leavers saying it is going badly.

Whilst critics of Mrs May might use these findings to criticise her these findings could help her.

With expectations very low on Brexit a moderately successful deal on Brexit has the potential to be seen a very good deal which leads to boost for Mrs May and the Tories. After all success equals performance minus anticipation.

TSE

PS – A big shout out to the 4% who thought Brexit would go badly but think it is going well. Exactly how low were their expectations?



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Those who think the SNP are a busted flush might be surprised by the latest YouGov Scotland poll as Labour set to be reduced to just 1 Scottish MP, again

Friday, June 8th, 2018

TSE



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New ComRes poll for the Daily Mirror shows 82% of voters, across all the main parties, would support a 1p rise in National Insurance contributions to fund NHS

Tuesday, June 5th, 2018

There’s a new ComRes poll out for The Daily Mirror on the NHS which shows really strong support for a 1p increase in National Insurance contributions to fund the NHS. The findings seems to reaffirm Lord Lawson’s view that “the NHS is the closest thing the English people have to a religion.”

ComRes say

The findings are revealed in the wake of yesterday’s dramatic intervention by Gordon Brown who warned that with mounting financial pressures and an ageing population, the NHS is in dire need of help and called for a repeat of his 1p rise in National Insurance to rescue it.

Tonight’s poll also shows the underlying political importance of the issue, with almost one in five people (18%) who say they would definitely be willing to change their vote at the next election in favour of a party which pledged additional NHS funding, and a further one in three (33%) who would probably be prepared to do so.  In a warning to the Government and Theresa May, more than four in ten Conservative voters (41%) say they would definitely or probably be prepared to switch vote as a result of the issue.

Importantly, the poll reveals the source of such strength of voter opinion.  When asked if the quality of service in the NHS has improved, stayed the same or declined since 2010, the year when the Conservative-led Coalition took power, 55% of voters answered negatively while just 9% said the quality of service in the NHS had improved.  There is significant variation in perceptions across the country, with fully three quarters of people living in the North East of England who say the quality has declined (75%), compared to 48% in Scotland and 45% in Wales.

You can see why Vote Leave made the NHS such an important part of the referendum just like NO2AV did in the AV referendum.

The question is if a party does propose this will there be a backlash like there was with the dementia tax?

TSE

Fieldwork note: ComRes interviewed 1,073 GB adults online on 5th June 2018. Data were weighted to be representative of all adults by region, gender and age.



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YouGov have run their very accurate constituency predictor on the House elections in November

Monday, June 4th, 2018

Will the YouGov model be as accurate in America as it was in the UK?

One of the undoubted winners of the last UK general election were YouGov and their MRP model which showed a hung parliament when most other pollsters were showing the Tories were on course for a hefty majority. I recall the near universal derision when YouGov forecast constituencies like Canterbury as a Labour gain, well it was YouGov who had the last laugh.

Well they’ve turned their attentions on the race for the control of the US House of Representatives. For those like me who have been betting on the Democratic Party to take the House comfortably this is alarming, when you factor in the plus and minus margin then a GOP hold of the House is a very realistic outcome.

CBS and YouGov have put up a methodology note that is well worth reading, it can be viewed by clicking here.

Before any of us burn out betting slips on the Dems taking the House we should remember there’s five months until voting day and a lot can happen especially with a such volatile character like Donald Trump in the White House.

Trump’s lawyers are arguing that Trump ‘could not possibly have committed obstruction because he has unfettered authority over all federal investigations’ which could have very interesting implications for the Mueller investigation. Richard Nixon and his legal team would have been interested in the arguments espoused by the Trump legal team.

TSE

 



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If Brexit is ever to be reversed it’ll be down to the 13% who think Brexit will negatively impact the economy but not their personal finances

Thursday, May 31st, 2018

I’ve been long of the opinion if Brexit is to be reversed it will be after a few years after the public has experienced Brexit and those who voted for Leave expecting no negative economic impacts would be crucial if Rejoin were to win.

So yesterday’s ICM poll for The Guardian, as per the tweet atop this thread, really did catch my attention. These findings might be an artefact of George Osborne’s hyperbolic and near apocalyptic economic warnings about Brexit, although if next March we leave the EU on WTO terms then the criticisms towards Osborne and Remain is that they lowballed it.

With the noises coming from the government that the Brexit they are proposing is towards the flaccid end and not the tumescent end of Brexit then I expect economic disruption to be minimised then I suspect 13% not to be disappointed unlike the Remainers/Rejoiners.

As we saw with the dementia tax hoi polloi don’t like policies that will make them poorer

TSE