Archive for the 'Second referendum' Category

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The question supporters of a ‘People’s vote’ need to answer. If another referendum is good enough for the UK, then surely it must be good enough for Scotland?

Sunday, December 2nd, 2018

Even though I’m someone who considers Brexit the greatest blunder this country has undertaken since appeasement I’m not a fan of another referendum until we’ve actually left the EU for a variety of reasons such as democracy must be honoured.

The risk of No Deal was repeatedly communicated to the voters during the 2016 referendum campaign there’s no point mewling now. But one of the primary reasons I’m most opposed to another referendum this soon is that it creates a precedent to rerun the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum, something that the SNP are skilled to exploit from the fallout from Brexit.

Today’s Sunday Times reports that

SNP ministers believe they can avoid the need for a second independence referendum on leaving the UK if a future Labour government refuses Nicola Sturgeon permission for a fresh vote.

Yesterday Labour’s shadow chancellor John McDonnell rejected the idea of a deal with the first minister on a new referendum in exchange for supporting a minority Labour government.

He told The Times there would be no horse-trading with the nationalists to install Jeremy Corbyn as prime minister.

However, a growing number of senior SNP politicians, including some ministers, believe Westminster’s refusal to grant a section 30 order to Holyrood to hold another referendum would not be enough to prevent secession.

With the possibility of Theresa May’s government collapsing over Brexit, SNP insiders suggest the party’s next UK general election manifesto will contain a commitment to another referendum.

Party insiders say if another referendum were to be blocked, then winning a large majority of Scottish seats, or Scottish votes in a Westminster election, may suffice as a basis for negotiations.

The SNP won a majority of Scottish seats with under 37% of the vote in last year’s general election, it is possible we could see Scottish independence occurring on a similar or lower threshold than that.

If you consider yourself a Unionist and you voted Leave then it appears you have well and truly soiled the bed, after all warnings about Brexit leading to the breakup of the United Kingdom were also strongly communicated during the referendum campaign.

TSE



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The Adonis assertion that there’s going to be a second referendum fails to convince punters

Tuesday, November 20th, 2018

Mike Smithson




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For the first time YouGov finds more supporting a second referendum than opposing

Friday, July 27th, 2018

There’s a new YouGov poll in the Times which has 42% wanting a second referendum against 40% who don’t. This is significant because it is the first time that the pollster’s second referendum tracker has found this result and, undoubtedly, will increase the clamour for it to take place.

The exact wording of the tracker question is in the panel in the Tweet above. The party splits finds 58% of LAB voters wanting a new vote, 67% of LD ones with just 21% of Tory voters taking this view.

The change in the mood clearly reflects the ongoing greater uncertainty over what Brexit will involve and increasing talk of “no deal” and the need, possibly to “stockpile” food.

Other pollsters have found backing for a second vote and a lot appears to depend on the wording of the question. What makes YouGov significant is that it is a tracker question so the proposition has been put in the same form and you can monitor response over time.

My view is that given the political deadlock over what Brexit means the second referendum possibility is going to gain even more traction.

The same poll finds that in such a vote 45% would back remain and 42% would back leave.

On voting intention the poll has CON & LAB level-pegging on 38% each with the LDs in double figures on 10%.

Mike Smithson