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Scotland and the electoral system: Why winning the next GE is huge ask of LAB

Scotland and the electoral system: Why winning the next GE is huge ask of LAB

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The system bias is now strongly pro-CON We all recall that at the 2005 general election Tony Blair’s Labour won the GB vote by a margin of just 3% but that was enough to give them an overall majority of 64. There was little doubt that the electoral system then favoured the red team. Things have changed dramatically with the collapse of the LDs and the post-IndyRef rise of the SNP. Even without the proposed new boundaries the electoral system…

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This looks like a spectacular bust up between the SNP and the Speaker but it does look staged

This looks like a spectacular bust up between the SNP and the Speaker but it does look staged

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WATCH: SNP leader @IanBlackfordMP gets thrown out of the Commons and his MPs follow pic.twitter.com/1sgWkJOCsH — PoliticsHome (@politicshome) June 13, 2018 That was an extremely exciting moment for PMQs nerds like me – Bercow used standing order 43 to force SNP leader Ian Blackford to leave the chamber – all SNP MPs followed him out — Emily Ashton (@elashton) June 13, 2018 SNP MPs due to stage a mass-walkout from Parliament for the media. — Aubrey Allegretti (@breeallegretti) June 13,…

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Double blow for SNP in new YouGov Scotland poll: support for independence down & more MP losses projected

Double blow for SNP in new YouGov Scotland poll: support for independence down & more MP losses projected

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New Times YouGov Scotland poll suggests SNP could be DOWN 8 to 27 Westminster seats at next GE. At GE2015 Sturgeon's party won 56 of Scotland's 59 seats https://t.co/GbyYxsinuN pic.twitter.com/PDC394lsdl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2018 YouGov Times Scotland poll finds Support for independence dwindles https://t.co/GbyYxsinuN pic.twitter.com/uzI4z5RDZb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2018 But they should still be top party at Holyrood We get so few Scotland only polls these days that when a new one comes out,…

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The new election reality: The Tories need the SNP to impede LAB’s revival in Scotland

The new election reality: The Tories need the SNP to impede LAB’s revival in Scotland

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Table – Commons Library Why BoJo/Andrea/Phil/David/Amber might be cheering Nicola on The group of constituencies that have seen the most dramatic changes over the past two general elections have been the 59 seats in Scotland. At GE2010 when Labour lost power there were no changes at all north of the border with what was then Gordon Brown’s party retaining all 41 seats that it held on an overall increased Scottish vote share. The SNP had just 6 seats with the…

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What a small pensions policy problem says about the current state of the SNP

What a small pensions policy problem says about the current state of the SNP

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Getting beyond rhetoric and identity politics These are unsettling times for Scottish nationalists. Just over a year ago, in the wake of the EU referendum, support in Remain-voting Scotland for independence was spiking. With the British government scrambling to form a coherent line on Brexit, the Scottish government hoped to turn the crisis into an opportunity by forcing the pace for a further independence referendum It hasn’t worked out that way at all. On the one hand, the Conservatives have…

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If CON, LAB, and the SNP each got 30% of the Scottish vote Sturgeon’s party would be down to just 6 MPs

If CON, LAB, and the SNP each got 30% of the Scottish vote Sturgeon’s party would be down to just 6 MPs

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The Times Why the SNP could be in trouble There’s a fascinating analysis in the Times by James Kanagasooriam of Populus of what would happen in Scotland’s 59 seats if the hree main parties there CON, LAB and the SNP each secured 30% of the vote. The projected seat totals are in the chart. The balance of the 59 Scottish seats would go to the LDs which would once again return to its historical position as the third party st…

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How much of Scotland and will still be in SNP hands on June 9th?

How much of Scotland and will still be in SNP hands on June 9th?

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DavidL looks at the prospects and the betting In 2010 Scottish politics look set in some Jurassic age. Not a seat changed hands. Scottish Labour dinosaurs ruled the roost and played on the national stage. In 2015, post referendum, the asteroid struck; an astonishing SNP tsunami, whose power was foreseen by few except Alastair Meeks, swept the SNP to a stunning 56 seats. The old Labour dominance was destroyed forever. What does 2017 hold for us? We have a few…

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New YouGov Scottish poll suggests the Tories could make 7 gains in Scotland

New YouGov Scottish poll suggests the Tories could make 7 gains in Scotland

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Graphic – The times And the LD could triple their Scottish seats The main General Election polling news overnight has been a YouGov/Times survey of Scotland which suggests that the Conservatives could start to win back some of the seats in Scotland that they held more than a quarter of a century ago. The Lib Dems could also stage a small recovery tripling the Scottish total to three seats. Labour, which at GE2010, won 41 of Scotland’s 59 seats, is…

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