Archive for the 'Donald Trump' Category

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The nearer you are to Russia the greater you attach to the importance of NATO

Thursday, April 13th, 2017

This could be a growing issue in many countries

Well done to YouGov for putting together this cross comparison of view of NATO in a range of different countries.

This body which has remained intact since 1949 and has played a key part in many counties security since that time. But political considerations are changing and we cannot assume that things will continue as they are.

No doubt the weakening of this alliance is a key objective for Mr. Putin which might be one of the reasons he has reportedly got closely involved in the domestic politics of many different countries.

In the UK, of course, Corbyn’s views are well known and could indeed play a major part in a general election campaign should he still be opposition leader then.

Mike Smithson




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Trump’s first electoral test sees the Republicans holding on in Kansas with a majority down 20%

Wednesday, April 12th, 2017

The margin down from 27% to 7.2%

If the Democrats are to make a dent on the Republican following last year’s presidential election then they are going to need to make 24 gains which would take away the GOP majority in Congress.

An opportunity arose last night with a by-election in a Kansas congressional district to fill the seat created by the appointment of Trump’s new CIA director. This was carried by the Republicans last November by 27%.

They failed but were not too far off and the margin of just 7.2% suggests that other battles in the coming months could be tight.

The victory for the Republicans followed polling that suggested that the seat could be in jeopardy and the party blasted voters with thousands of automated phone calls from the President which sought to attack the Democratic candidate’s abortion policies.

There is another special election for the House next week in Georgia which was won by the Republicans last November by just one point. Based on the swing in Kansas then the Democrats will be expecting victory.

Mike Smithson




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Punters now taking a more positive view of Trump’s survival chances

Tuesday, April 11th, 2017

Now he’s odds-on to serve till 2020 or later

On the UK betting markets at least punters are taking a more positive view about Donald Trump’s chances of staying in the post till 2020 or beyond.

It seems his action on Syria has helped take the edge off the Putin link narrative that was proving to be becoming a problem for him.

But the big picture remains negative and his party could still turn on him in the run up to next year’s mid-terms if it was felt that his presence in the White House was having a negative impact on his party’s chances. The Republicans currently have majorities in both the House and the Senate and they want to keep it that way.

Mike Smithson




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BREAKING: Trump orders cruise missile attack on Syria following the chemical weapon attack

Friday, April 7th, 2017

The new President’s first major military intervention

Trump said:

“Tonight I ordered a targeted military strike on the airfield in Syria from where the chemical attack was launched.

It is in this vital national security interest of the United States to prevent and deter the spread and use of deadly chemical weapons.

There can be no dispute that Syria used banned chemical weapons, violated its obligations under the chemical weapons convention, and ignored the urging of the UN security council.

Years of previous attempts at changing Assad’s behaviour have all failed and failed very dramatically.”

Mike Smithson




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Flynn’s move looks dangerous for Trump and punters make it a 52% chance that the President won’t last the full term

Friday, March 31st, 2017

Time to bet on the President’s survival? Maybe. Maybe not

Until now I have steadfastly ignored the betting on how long Donald Trump will remain in the White House simply because my own personal feelings on this are strong and I know that that could affect my judgement.

But the latest news overnight about Trump’s former national Security adviser, Mike Flynn, suggests that things could start to get pretty rough for the President who has been in power for just over 2 months.

This is all about the possible links between the Trump and Russia and now Flynn’s lawyers have made it clear that he is ready to give evidence on the subject if he is offered immunity from prosecution.

That sounds quite ominous for the President but it’s hard to assess how much that puts his job in danger.

Alongside this the other big Trump story that won’t go away are his declining approval ratings which are far worse than any other president has experienced at this stage in his term.

The worry for the Republican party will be the midterm elections in 2018 when the last thing they want is for negative views of occupant of the White House to be impacting on their electoral chances when so much is at stake.

As a general rule in betting on how long politicians will last it is best to go with their survival. When Bill Clinton was facing impeachment there was a lively spread market on how many days his second term would last for. I bet on him surviving and that that proved to be very profitable.

So in spite of everything with Trump at the moment and I am keeping out of this market. That might change.

Mike Smithson




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If this is accurate, then you might wish to update your Trump impeachment, conviction, resignation, and exit date betting

Sunday, March 26th, 2017

 

TSE



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The French Presidency, Manchester Gorton & how long will Trump last – latest betting market round-up

Thursday, March 23rd, 2017

Macron remains the strong odds-on favourite in France

LAB eases a touch in Gorton but still very strong favourite

Punters think Trump’s got a 50% chance of NOT completing first term

Mike Smithson




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Main polling headlines from the US and in the UK

Saturday, February 18th, 2017

Trump slumps to historic approval rating low less than a month after becoming President

CON lead over LAB up 6% with Opinium