Archive for the 'Donald Trump' Category


Wow, just WOW

Friday, December 1st, 2017

Will the GOP impeach and convict Trump or be seen as the political wing of Russia?

The term game changer gets used a lot in the world of politics, but I think qualifies as a genuine, bona fide, pukka, unadulterated, game changer. The question is will the Republicans vote to impeach and convict Trump by a sufficient margin to remove him from The Oval Office?

I’ve been betting on Trump serving a full term, if these reports turn out to be accurate, I think those bets will be losers as I don’t think the GOP will want be seen condoning Russian interference in the American Presidential election or be seen as the political wing of Russia, the future of the GOP is now at stake.

Trump’s twitter account is going to be fun to watch over the next few hours and days.



Donald Trump’s re-tweets are going to cause Theresa May some problems

Wednesday, November 29th, 2017

Mrs May will have to publicly repudiate Donald Trump or her opponents will paint her as a friend of racists & neo-Nazis.

One of the few things I like about Mrs May is that she’s been strong on opposing bigotry and racism, a prime example being her changing the police’s approach on stop and search, fundamentally she’s a decent person and privately she’ll be appalled at Trump proving David Cameron’s maxim about twitter, again.

But given the position she finds herself in the post Brexit world, can she risk alienating Donald Trump by criticising his actions and withdrawing the state visit invitation? Labour are already urging her to do that.

As someone who enrages the likes of Britain First and the EDL on sight I know these re-tweets by Donald Trump will embolden them more, this isn’t a story that will just blow away. Theresa May can either condemn Trump now or look like she’s been forced to do so, I trust she will do the right thing sooner rather than later.

Although some of her advisers might tell her to go the Jeremy Corbyn route and just ignore it, given the opprobrium Corbyn received during the general election campaign for his past and current associations, it didn’t stop Corbyn increasing Labour’s share of the vote and seats.




Betting on Time’s person of the year

Wednesday, November 29th, 2017

Following Friday night’s tweet by Donald Trump I thought it’d be fun to look at the betting markets on the winner of Time’s Person Of The Year Award. I can understand why the hashtag MeToo is favourite, in 2011 ‘The Protester’ won, so groups and collectives can win.

My tip is Colin Kaepernick at 14/1, the American Football player who began the ‘taking the knee’ protests over racial injustices in America, it enraged Donald Trump a lot, which led to even more protests by players in the NFL. Colin Kaepernick was recently awarded GQ’s 2017 Citizen Of The Year so his protests has earned him awards already.

Just a bit of warning, I’ve been betting on Time’s person of the year for around a decade, and I’ve only had one winner in that time, Donald Trump who won the award last year.



With speculation that Michael Flynn is cooperating with Robert Mueller punters think Trump won’t serve a full term

Friday, November 24th, 2017

Despite the Flynn speculation I won’t resile from my position that Trump will serve a full term because the Democrats won’t be close to having the two thirds vote to successful convict a President following impeachment. Plus the Republicans will only vote to convict in sufficient numbers if Trump is caught in flagrante delicto handing over the US nuclear codes to Russia.


PS – This video from the 2016 GOP convention featuring Michael Flynn and the crowd chanting  ‘Lock her up’ about Hillary Clinton is in no way amusing in hindsight.


This tweet epitomises why betting on Donald Trump related markets is so difficult

Sunday, November 12th, 2017



As the pressure grows on Trump over Russian connections his core supporters rally round even more

Tuesday, October 31st, 2017

Most Trump loyalists think Russia wanted Hillary Clinton to win

A new US poll by Public Policy Polling finds record level of support for the President to be impeached. Now 49% say he should with 41% saying he shouldn’t.

But it is not all one way traffic as this extract from the firm’s analysis of its news finding suggest.

Attempts by Trump world, Fox News, and other affiliated interests to try to turn the Russia news back onto Hillary Clinton have had some effect. A month ago we found that among Trump voters 41% thought Russia wanted Clinton to win the election last year, to 29% who thought it wanted Trump to win. Now that’s up to 56% who think Russia wanted Clinton to win and just 18% who grant that it wanted Trump to win.

That’s part of a general pattern when it comes to Trump voters and the Russia story. Only 7% believe that members of Trump’s campaign team worked in association with Russia to help him win the election, to 83% who don’t think that happened. And even if collusion is proven they don’t care- just 11% think Trump should resign if that’s the case to 79% who believe he should remain in office. 75% dismiss the entire Russia story as ‘fake news,’ to 13% who disagree with that assessment. This poll was conducted mostly after the news that indictments were coming was out, but before the actual indictments were released..”

We always knew that America was very divided. The election of Trump seems to have polarised things even more.

Mike Smithson


Trump failing to complete a full term now odds-on as court moves start against former campaign chief

Tuesday, October 31st, 2017

The biggest current political betting markets on whether Trump is going to survive and him being there at the end of 2020 is looking a touch less likely with his campaign boss, Paul Manafort, due to make a first appearance later today.

On Betfair Trump not making it to the end of his term is now a 53% chance.

In broad terms the charges are that Manafort oversaw a money-laundering scheme involving more than $75 million from pro-Russia political groups.

It is the alleged help that Russian interests gave to Trump to help him defeat Hillary Clinton that have been dominating DC politics for months. These latest charges relate to tax avoidance, illegally working as for a foreign government and making false statements.

Those of us old enough to remember Watergate in the early 1970s remember how it was the cover-up that was Nixon’s final undoing.

These things can take a lot of time but the speed of the latest moves are what is striking.

As to the betting there are two key markets. Will the Donald fail to make it all the way to the end of 2020 and whet year will he depart.

Mike Smithson


It’s Mueller time

Sunday, October 29th, 2017

Important news for those of us betting on whether Trump will be impeached or serve a full term

CNN reported in the early hours of Saturday morning UK time,

A federal grand jury in Washington on Friday approved the first charges in the investigation led by special counsel Robert Mueller, according to sources briefed on the matter.

The charges are still sealed under orders from a federal judge. Plans were prepared Friday for anyone charged to be taken into custody as soon as Monday, the sources said. It is unclear what the charges are. 

A spokesman for the special counsel’s office declined to comment.

The White House also had no comment, a senior administration official said Saturday morning.

I might be reading too much into this but I am surprised this story hasn’t had more coverage, but if we do see people taken into custody Donald Trump’s twitter account will be even more compelling for all the wrong reasons.

Whilst charges being brought shouldn’t mean an automaticity of guilt, I’ve always viewed Trump as nearly as paranoid as Richard Nixon. I suspect Trump will do something spectacular to protect himself, not quite the Saturday Night Massacre but he might start pardoning people before the normal criminal routes have been completed, which might cause Trump even more problems.

My consistent view has been that even if the Democrats controlled The House and voted to impeach, I don’t think they’d have sufficient votes to convict Trump in The Senate, but this does make things very interesting. Depending on who is charged I might be changing my betting position on Monday. Given the way Trump campaigned, you can almost hear a deafening crescendo of ‘Lock him up’ from his opponents once the person who is charged is named, as people wish to hoist Trump by his own petard.

Since Trump became President if feels like we’re all living in a giant constitutional law seminar, this will only reinforce that perception.