Archive for the 'Donald Trump' Category

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The betting edges a notch away from Trump completing his first term

Monday, April 16th, 2018

With Trump’s personal attorney Michael Cohen due to appear in court at 1900 BST in New York there’s been some movement on the “Will Trump complete a full first term” betting on Betfair.

The whole atmosphere has changed since the surprise raid on Cohen’s offices last week and there’s a lot of speculation about what might have been found.

It is reported that Stormy Daniels will be at the hearing. It is also being said that the President is much more concerned about these developments than with the Russia probe.

Although this is a popular betting market it is not one that I have been tempted to enter so far. Trump appears totally determined to remain in post and that stubbornness, surely, will mean that he’ll have to be forced out if he’s to go early.

Mike Smithson




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Betfair punters now make it a 66% chance that Trump will survive his first term

Friday, April 13th, 2018

After a quite dramatic week in US politics during which there has been a raid on the law firm that advises the President there has been a slight decline on the betting markets on whether Trump will serve a full first term.

The latest development with strong echoes of Watergate in the early 1970s is that Trump’s lawyer is known to have kept extensive sound recordings of those he had been in conversation with and the President’s allies are concerned that the recordings might have been taken.

Clearly there’s a worry that the Federal investigators might have something that could be highly compromising.

Those of my generation who followed the Watergate investigation in the early 70s that eventually led to the fall of Richard Nixon will recall how secret recordings made in his office became a huge point of contention over which there were big legal battles.

My view is that Trump will make it but who knows. Raiding his personal attorney is quite a development.

Mike Smithson




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Trump ups the ante in Pennsylvania 18 staking a lot on his man winning tomorrow’s special election

Monday, March 12th, 2018

A Republican hold would be big boost to the President

In the early hours of Wednesday morning, UK time, I expect to be glued to CNN coverage of the results in the Pennsylvania 18th District special election. This is proving to be a massive battle and the outcome looks set to frame the narrative of how the November midterms are seen.

The President is very aware of this and at the weekend made another highly publicised big visit to the district with a packed rally.

What makes this election, which is on the outskirts of Pittsburgh, particularly interesting is that this is natural Trump territory and at WH2016 the President won there by a margin of 20%. A win by the Democrats would be a sensation. It also might encourage wavering Republican congressman in similar areas not to fight in the November elections.

The Democratic aim of taking the House will be a whole lot easier if they are facing fewer incumbents in key targets. A GOP hold tomorrow could have the opposite effect.

This is from James Arkin of EealCRear Politics

..“The election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District has become a flash point for both parties eight months before this year’s midterms. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the district by nearly 20 points, but the Democratic candidate is running neck and neck with state Rep. Rick Saccone in the final days of the campaign, a potential sign of both Democratic enthusiasm and apathy among GOP voters.

Trump’s visit was an attempt to reverse those trends and help put Saccone over the top in a district that many Republicans concede should not be so competitive. But it was carries risk for Trump, who could face questions about his ability to generate support for down-ballot candidates if Saccone loses despite campaigning alongside the president…

..Trump did everything he could to tie himself to Saccone on Saturday night. He invited him on stage at the end of the rally, calling him a “good person” and a “very hard worker.” Trump didn’t downplay the significance of the race, saying the whole world was watching, but added that he didn’t want to put pressure on the candidate..”

Clearly Trump was there to motivate his supporters to turnout tomorrow. It might be that it encourages more marginal anti-Trump voters as well.

This hasn’t set off much UK betting interest and, as I write, the Republican is the odds on favourite on Betfair at about 60% with the Democratic contender on 40%. Given the polling it looks like a 50-50 chance so the longest price option is the value bet.

Mike Smithson




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Peace talks for our time, but where?

Sunday, March 11th, 2018

Will Trump have his Nixon in China moment?

Following the news about the summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un Ladbrokes have a market up on the location of the summit.

It is well noted that Kim Jong-un is very paranoid, particularly about his own security, so he might wish hold the talks in North Korea, or the DMZ, which per the terms of the bet would count as a dead heat.

It might appeal to Trump that going to North Korea to sue for peace to have his own iconic Trump in North Korea moment, nearly fifty years on, only Nixon could go to China moment is still part of the lexicon.

‘Only Nixon could go to China’ is an old Vulcan proverb as Mr Spock observed in Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered country when talking to Captain James Tiberius Kirk about Kirk’s suitability to host peace talks with the Klingons. That’s how momentous this summit could be.

All things considered the 33/1 on Russia also looks like value, I’m on. Trump could use it to try and rehabilitate Putin in the eyes of American voters and effectively neuter Robert Mueller’s investigations.

TSE



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Interesting news for those of us betting on the year of Trump’s exit date

Sunday, March 4th, 2018

My expectation for a while has been health or assassins permitting Donald Trump’s tenure as President will end on January 20th 2025, and have been betting accordingly but the tweet above is intriguing.

I think Trump’s desire to repeal the 22nd Amendment won’t happen simply because of the high bar to repeal it. It will need two thirds of The House of Representatives & The Senate to vote for it THEN 75% of states have to ratify it. I’ll file that in the ‘unlikely to happen’ folder, especially when someone as divisive as Trump is proposing it.

I suspect this is Trump’s way of trolling his opponents. I assume it amuses Trump and that’s why he hinted at repealing the 22nd Amendment, he’s the clickbait President.

I’ll never understand the mentality of trolling and winding up your opponents, I have better ways of amusing myself, I wish the President of America could be more like me.

TSE



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On the biggest current political betting market Trump now given a 64% chance of survival

Thursday, February 15th, 2018

Trump amazing powers to distract are stopping bad news taking hold

With all the focus on Brexit and Theresa May’s survival in the UK it is sometimes easy to forget that from a political betting point of view the big markets are in the US and particularly on whether Donald Trump survives his first term.

We’ve not looked at this for some time but as the chart above shows the price, on Betfair, have moved quite sharply in his favour from a position when he was 50/50 to the current 64% chance that he’s going to make it through to the end.

    One of the abilities that Trump appears to have is being able to move the subject when a very difficult story appears about him in the media.

So much White House news comes out almost everyday it is very difficult for a particular story to take hold and events that would have brought other presidents to their knees have somehow been bypassed. Remember all the news that was coming out before Christmas on the book about Trump in the White House with comments from his former chief of staff which were less than flattering to the president. Yet now that is long forgotten.

Whether this can continue in the next three years we don’t know and there’s a suggestion from Taegan Goddard that this might be getting harder.

I’ve not bet on this market and I don’t think I will do because I think that Trump is going to survive and I don’t locking up cash in odds on positions that won’t resolved for three years.

Mike Smithson




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Trump’s “hairstyle” – not a bet that tempts me but fun all the same

Thursday, February 8th, 2018



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Punters have more confidence that Trump will survive but are less convinced that he’ll be re-elected

Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018

Trump’s first year in the White House in two betting charts

And the November 2018 midterms

Thanks yet again to Betdata.Io for their excellent historical and current political betting charts based on actual trades on the Betfair exchange.

In money terms all the top politics markets at the moment are US related and my guess is that the following two on the midterms in November, will be the biggest ones of 2018.

Mike Smithson