Archive for the 'Donald Trump' Category


Trump ups the ante in Pennsylvania 18 staking a lot on his man winning tomorrow’s special election

Monday, March 12th, 2018

A Republican hold would be big boost to the President

In the early hours of Wednesday morning, UK time, I expect to be glued to CNN coverage of the results in the Pennsylvania 18th District special election. This is proving to be a massive battle and the outcome looks set to frame the narrative of how the November midterms are seen.

The President is very aware of this and at the weekend made another highly publicised big visit to the district with a packed rally.

What makes this election, which is on the outskirts of Pittsburgh, particularly interesting is that this is natural Trump territory and at WH2016 the President won there by a margin of 20%. A win by the Democrats would be a sensation. It also might encourage wavering Republican congressman in similar areas not to fight in the November elections.

The Democratic aim of taking the House will be a whole lot easier if they are facing fewer incumbents in key targets. A GOP hold tomorrow could have the opposite effect.

This is from James Arkin of EealCRear Politics

..“The election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District has become a flash point for both parties eight months before this year’s midterms. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the district by nearly 20 points, but the Democratic candidate is running neck and neck with state Rep. Rick Saccone in the final days of the campaign, a potential sign of both Democratic enthusiasm and apathy among GOP voters.

Trump’s visit was an attempt to reverse those trends and help put Saccone over the top in a district that many Republicans concede should not be so competitive. But it was carries risk for Trump, who could face questions about his ability to generate support for down-ballot candidates if Saccone loses despite campaigning alongside the president…

..Trump did everything he could to tie himself to Saccone on Saturday night. He invited him on stage at the end of the rally, calling him a “good person” and a “very hard worker.” Trump didn’t downplay the significance of the race, saying the whole world was watching, but added that he didn’t want to put pressure on the candidate..”

Clearly Trump was there to motivate his supporters to turnout tomorrow. It might be that it encourages more marginal anti-Trump voters as well.

This hasn’t set off much UK betting interest and, as I write, the Republican is the odds on favourite on Betfair at about 60% with the Democratic contender on 40%. Given the polling it looks like a 50-50 chance so the longest price option is the value bet.

Mike Smithson


Peace talks for our time, but where?

Sunday, March 11th, 2018

Will Trump have his Nixon in China moment?

Following the news about the summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un Ladbrokes have a market up on the location of the summit.

It is well noted that Kim Jong-un is very paranoid, particularly about his own security, so he might wish hold the talks in North Korea, or the DMZ, which per the terms of the bet would count as a dead heat.

It might appeal to Trump that going to North Korea to sue for peace to have his own iconic Trump in North Korea moment, nearly fifty years on, only Nixon could go to China moment is still part of the lexicon.

‘Only Nixon could go to China’ is an old Vulcan proverb as Mr Spock observed in Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered country when talking to Captain James Tiberius Kirk about Kirk’s suitability to host peace talks with the Klingons. That’s how momentous this summit could be.

All things considered the 33/1 on Russia also looks like value, I’m on. Trump could use it to try and rehabilitate Putin in the eyes of American voters and effectively neuter Robert Mueller’s investigations.



Interesting news for those of us betting on the year of Trump’s exit date

Sunday, March 4th, 2018

My expectation for a while has been health or assassins permitting Donald Trump’s tenure as President will end on January 20th 2025, and have been betting accordingly but the tweet above is intriguing.

I think Trump’s desire to repeal the 22nd Amendment won’t happen simply because of the high bar to repeal it. It will need two thirds of The House of Representatives & The Senate to vote for it THEN 75% of states have to ratify it. I’ll file that in the ‘unlikely to happen’ folder, especially when someone as divisive as Trump is proposing it.

I suspect this is Trump’s way of trolling his opponents. I assume it amuses Trump and that’s why he hinted at repealing the 22nd Amendment, he’s the clickbait President.

I’ll never understand the mentality of trolling and winding up your opponents, I have better ways of amusing myself, I wish the President of America could be more like me.



On the biggest current political betting market Trump now given a 64% chance of survival

Thursday, February 15th, 2018

Trump amazing powers to distract are stopping bad news taking hold

With all the focus on Brexit and Theresa May’s survival in the UK it is sometimes easy to forget that from a political betting point of view the big markets are in the US and particularly on whether Donald Trump survives his first term.

We’ve not looked at this for some time but as the chart above shows the price, on Betfair, have moved quite sharply in his favour from a position when he was 50/50 to the current 64% chance that he’s going to make it through to the end.

    One of the abilities that Trump appears to have is being able to move the subject when a very difficult story appears about him in the media.

So much White House news comes out almost everyday it is very difficult for a particular story to take hold and events that would have brought other presidents to their knees have somehow been bypassed. Remember all the news that was coming out before Christmas on the book about Trump in the White House with comments from his former chief of staff which were less than flattering to the president. Yet now that is long forgotten.

Whether this can continue in the next three years we don’t know and there’s a suggestion from Taegan Goddard that this might be getting harder.

I’ve not bet on this market and I don’t think I will do because I think that Trump is going to survive and I don’t locking up cash in odds on positions that won’t resolved for three years.

Mike Smithson


Trump’s “hairstyle” – not a bet that tempts me but fun all the same

Thursday, February 8th, 2018


Punters have more confidence that Trump will survive but are less convinced that he’ll be re-elected

Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018

Trump’s first year in the White House in two betting charts

And the November 2018 midterms

Thanks yet again to Betdata.Io for their excellent historical and current political betting charts based on actual trades on the Betfair exchange.

In money terms all the top politics markets at the moment are US related and my guess is that the following two on the midterms in November, will be the biggest ones of 2018.

Mike Smithson


Donald Trump’s horizontal jogging with a porn star might see Melania Trump jog on from their marriage

Sunday, January 21st, 2018

Following the recent revelations about Donald Trump paying hush money to the porn star Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about their reputed affair, the marriage of Donald and Melania Trump has come under scrutiny. If you have no ethical or moral qualms about betting on the divorce of a couple then you might be interested in the above betting markets from Paddy Power.

The bet on Trump remarrying by the 8th of November this year seems very unappealing, I’m not sure of the logistics of it all, but Donald Trump getting a divorce and remarrying someone in less than ten months time is a very long shot, I’d want around 500/1, not the 50/1 Paddy Power are offering.

The ones that tempt me are Donald Trump getting married for a fourth time during his Presidency looks appealing for a serial marriage enthusiast like Donald Trump, who clearly enjoys taking women up the aisle.

Similarly the 16/1 on Melania Trump on leaving Trump and filing for divorce before the 8th of November looks tempting, I’d stake more but for Paddy Power’s time constraints, it would have looked very tempting if it had been extended to Trump’s first term.

Consequently the 8/1 on Melania Trump living with another man during Trump’s first term might be a better bet of the two, she like most people sees Donald Trump’s behaviour akin to a disposable feminine hygiene product that one might use on a summer’s eve, and the bag it came in.



Trump ends his first year in the White House with punters giving him a 60% chance staying till 2020 or later

Friday, January 19th, 2018

With the exception of the period of the UK General Election the biggest political betting markets of the past year have been on Donald Trump. Is he going to survive a full first term? Will he win again in 2020? What will be the year of his actual departure from the White House?

These are obviously going to be linked to how the news media are treating him but even the controversial Michael Wolff book did not take his survival chances below 50%.

A big question is whether he can win again at the next presidential election in 2020? Currently he is just a 28% chance of wining a second term. He has two main obstacles assuming he’s still around then – securing the nomination of his party and then, of course, winning the election. The current second favourite on Betfair is Oprah Winfrey at 7%.

A lot for Trump depends on the mid-term elections this November when big defeats for his party for the Senate and House could change perceptions. The betting at the moment points to the Republicans holding on in the Senate but losing the house If he’s seen as an electoral liability then that could undermine his chances.

On top of that we have the ongoing investigation into the alleged Russian help that he is said to have received at WH2016. It is hard to say how that will go though it continues to be a thorn in his side.

He’s a polarising figure and a turnout driver for both sides. His base, mostly white male working class, is hugely loyal. His opponents are fired up to get rid of him.

Mike Smithson