Archive for the 'Donald Trump' Category


Interesting news for those of us betting on the year of Trump’s exit date

Sunday, March 4th, 2018

My expectation for a while has been health or assassins permitting Donald Trump’s tenure as President will end on January 20th 2025, and have been betting accordingly but the tweet above is intriguing.

I think Trump’s desire to repeal the 22nd Amendment won’t happen simply because of the high bar to repeal it. It will need two thirds of The House of Representatives & The Senate to vote for it THEN 75% of states have to ratify it. I’ll file that in the ‘unlikely to happen’ folder, especially when someone as divisive as Trump is proposing it.

I suspect this is Trump’s way of trolling his opponents. I assume it amuses Trump and that’s why he hinted at repealing the 22nd Amendment, he’s the clickbait President.

I’ll never understand the mentality of trolling and winding up your opponents, I have better ways of amusing myself, I wish the President of America could be more like me.



On the biggest current political betting market Trump now given a 64% chance of survival

Thursday, February 15th, 2018

Trump amazing powers to distract are stopping bad news taking hold

With all the focus on Brexit and Theresa May’s survival in the UK it is sometimes easy to forget that from a political betting point of view the big markets are in the US and particularly on whether Donald Trump survives his first term.

We’ve not looked at this for some time but as the chart above shows the price, on Betfair, have moved quite sharply in his favour from a position when he was 50/50 to the current 64% chance that he’s going to make it through to the end.

    One of the abilities that Trump appears to have is being able to move the subject when a very difficult story appears about him in the media.

So much White House news comes out almost everyday it is very difficult for a particular story to take hold and events that would have brought other presidents to their knees have somehow been bypassed. Remember all the news that was coming out before Christmas on the book about Trump in the White House with comments from his former chief of staff which were less than flattering to the president. Yet now that is long forgotten.

Whether this can continue in the next three years we don’t know and there’s a suggestion from Taegan Goddard that this might be getting harder.

I’ve not bet on this market and I don’t think I will do because I think that Trump is going to survive and I don’t locking up cash in odds on positions that won’t resolved for three years.

Mike Smithson


Trump’s “hairstyle” – not a bet that tempts me but fun all the same

Thursday, February 8th, 2018


Punters have more confidence that Trump will survive but are less convinced that he’ll be re-elected

Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018

Trump’s first year in the White House in two betting charts

And the November 2018 midterms

Thanks yet again to Betdata.Io for their excellent historical and current political betting charts based on actual trades on the Betfair exchange.

In money terms all the top politics markets at the moment are US related and my guess is that the following two on the midterms in November, will be the biggest ones of 2018.

Mike Smithson


Donald Trump’s horizontal jogging with a porn star might see Melania Trump jog on from their marriage

Sunday, January 21st, 2018

Following the recent revelations about Donald Trump paying hush money to the porn star Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about their reputed affair, the marriage of Donald and Melania Trump has come under scrutiny. If you have no ethical or moral qualms about betting on the divorce of a couple then you might be interested in the above betting markets from Paddy Power.

The bet on Trump remarrying by the 8th of November this year seems very unappealing, I’m not sure of the logistics of it all, but Donald Trump getting a divorce and remarrying someone in less than ten months time is a very long shot, I’d want around 500/1, not the 50/1 Paddy Power are offering.

The ones that tempt me are Donald Trump getting married for a fourth time during his Presidency looks appealing for a serial marriage enthusiast like Donald Trump, who clearly enjoys taking women up the aisle.

Similarly the 16/1 on Melania Trump on leaving Trump and filing for divorce before the 8th of November looks tempting, I’d stake more but for Paddy Power’s time constraints, it would have looked very tempting if it had been extended to Trump’s first term.

Consequently the 8/1 on Melania Trump living with another man during Trump’s first term might be a better bet of the two, she like most people sees Donald Trump’s behaviour akin to a disposable feminine hygiene product that one might use on a summer’s eve, and the bag it came in.



Trump ends his first year in the White House with punters giving him a 60% chance staying till 2020 or later

Friday, January 19th, 2018

With the exception of the period of the UK General Election the biggest political betting markets of the past year have been on Donald Trump. Is he going to survive a full first term? Will he win again in 2020? What will be the year of his actual departure from the White House?

These are obviously going to be linked to how the news media are treating him but even the controversial Michael Wolff book did not take his survival chances below 50%.

A big question is whether he can win again at the next presidential election in 2020? Currently he is just a 28% chance of wining a second term. He has two main obstacles assuming he’s still around then – securing the nomination of his party and then, of course, winning the election. The current second favourite on Betfair is Oprah Winfrey at 7%.

A lot for Trump depends on the mid-term elections this November when big defeats for his party for the Senate and House could change perceptions. The betting at the moment points to the Republicans holding on in the Senate but losing the house If he’s seen as an electoral liability then that could undermine his chances.

On top of that we have the ongoing investigation into the alleged Russian help that he is said to have received at WH2016. It is hard to say how that will go though it continues to be a thorn in his side.

He’s a polarising figure and a turnout driver for both sides. His base, mostly white male working class, is hugely loyal. His opponents are fired up to get rid of him.

Mike Smithson


Never forget that the vast majority of those who voted for Trump are happy with their President

Monday, January 15th, 2018

And the betting continues to point to his survival

Mike Smithson


UKIP voters are the only ones who think Donald Trump is more intelligent than average

Monday, January 15th, 2018

I doubt if the occupant of the White House reads the Observer or actually look at polling that is anything other than flattering him. But if he did he is his current apparent anger with the UK would have been reinforced.

One of the questions was whether British voters thought that Mr Trump was above or below average intelligence. The findings by party splits are in the chart above.

As can be seen overall there was an extraordinary low view of Mr Trump’s intelligence almost across the board. Just 18% of those polled thought that Trump was above average intelligence and even UKIP voters, the most favourable to the president, it was just 34%.

This is the context in which British politicians have to be aware of as they deal with Trump and US related issues. I thought it was wrong, for instance, for Boris Johnson to attack Labour over the cancellation of Trump’s visit.

Mike Smithson