Archive for the 'Donald Trump' Category

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Punters are just still expecting Trump to serve at least a full term

Tuesday, July 11th, 2017

In the past few days The New York Times have published a story about Donald Trump Jr and his meeting in June 2016 with a ‘Russian government lawyer’ who promised him damaging information about Hillary Clinton.  What makes this latest intervention even more interesting is Donald Trump Jr’s response which some have described as ‘This is the dumbest and biggest crime in the history of American politics. There’s not even a close second.’

Trump Senior has managed to deal with damaging stories in the past which observers including myself thought would stop him becoming the GOP nominee let alone the President, so he might be able to survive this latest controversy. One of the reasons I expect him to serve a full term is that even if Trump is impeached by the House, I don’t expect the Senate to convict him because it would need 67 Senators to vote for a conviction, I just can’t see the Democrats picking up that number of seats in 2018 or even close to it, which probably reflects the betting below.

TSE



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At last! Mr. Trump shakes hands with a leader who has worse leader ratings than he does – Mrs. May

Sunday, July 9th, 2017

One of the most worrying features for Mrs. May following her failed GE17 gamble and her determination to stay in the job has been the sharp move downwards in her leader ratings. Whether the format has been about favourability, satisfaction, approval or doing well/badly she has seen a very sharp reversal since June 8th.

Trump has had poor ratings right from the start and in recent weeks the President has seen his net favourability numbers down at a net minus 25%. The trend is getting worse.

    But for all Trump’s numbers amongst US voters are poor he is not yet down at the levels being experienced by Mrs. May amongst British voters.

The post general election polling has been really bad for the Tories and TMay. Recent polling from YouGov had TMay’s favourability at a net minus 34% – a picture that is broadly the same as other pollsters. The latest ICM had just 28% say she was doing a “good job” as PM with 54% saying “bad job”.

I’ve long argued that the trend in leader ratings is as good, if not better, pointer to electoral outcomes than voting intention numbers. Indeed in the lead up to June 8th Corbyn enjoyed a significant boost in his numbers which were broadly over-looked because they did not fit the prevailing “CON landslide” narrative.

Mike Smithson




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The pressure on the President heralds the return of Marf

Wednesday, May 17th, 2017

We’ve not seen a Marf cartoon on PB for some time but that all changes this afternoon with this drawing on Donald Trump who clearly is under a lot of pressure.

I’m hoping that there maybe more from her during the closing stages of GE2017 and beyind.

The twin issues of the sacking of FBI director, Comey and the allegation that he gave secret intelligence to the Russian foreign have today led to the first Republican law-maker talk of impeachment.

Mike Smithson




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Punters move against Trump on the “will he survive ” markets

Wednesday, May 17th, 2017


If the UK was not in the middle of a general election campaign then the political news that would be dominating things at the moment would be from Washington.

The sacking earlier in the month of of the FBI director Comey followed by this week’s revelations that Trump might have disclosed intelligence secrets to the the Russian foreign minister have all added to the drama. It is now suggested that an agent’s life might be in jeopardy. Ex-GOP Presidential candidate John McCain is saying that things have reached Watergate proportions.

It is the ongoing narrative of Trump’s links with the Russians that is driving things. A new development in the Comey case is a report that Trump asked the then FBI director in February to close down investigations – a move that is portrayed as interfering with the judicial process.

From this side of the pond it is hard to make a reasoned assessment and so far I’ve kept out of the betting.

Mike Smithson




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The nearer you are to Russia the greater you attach to the importance of NATO

Thursday, April 13th, 2017

This could be a growing issue in many countries

Well done to YouGov for putting together this cross comparison of view of NATO in a range of different countries.

This body which has remained intact since 1949 and has played a key part in many counties security since that time. But political considerations are changing and we cannot assume that things will continue as they are.

No doubt the weakening of this alliance is a key objective for Mr. Putin which might be one of the reasons he has reportedly got closely involved in the domestic politics of many different countries.

In the UK, of course, Corbyn’s views are well known and could indeed play a major part in a general election campaign should he still be opposition leader then.

Mike Smithson




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Trump’s first electoral test sees the Republicans holding on in Kansas with a majority down 20%

Wednesday, April 12th, 2017

The margin down from 27% to 7.2%

If the Democrats are to make a dent on the Republican following last year’s presidential election then they are going to need to make 24 gains which would take away the GOP majority in Congress.

An opportunity arose last night with a by-election in a Kansas congressional district to fill the seat created by the appointment of Trump’s new CIA director. This was carried by the Republicans last November by 27%.

They failed but were not too far off and the margin of just 7.2% suggests that other battles in the coming months could be tight.

The victory for the Republicans followed polling that suggested that the seat could be in jeopardy and the party blasted voters with thousands of automated phone calls from the President which sought to attack the Democratic candidate’s abortion policies.

There is another special election for the House next week in Georgia which was won by the Republicans last November by just one point. Based on the swing in Kansas then the Democrats will be expecting victory.

Mike Smithson




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Punters now taking a more positive view of Trump’s survival chances

Tuesday, April 11th, 2017

Now he’s odds-on to serve till 2020 or later

On the UK betting markets at least punters are taking a more positive view about Donald Trump’s chances of staying in the post till 2020 or beyond.

It seems his action on Syria has helped take the edge off the Putin link narrative that was proving to be becoming a problem for him.

But the big picture remains negative and his party could still turn on him in the run up to next year’s mid-terms if it was felt that his presence in the White House was having a negative impact on his party’s chances. The Republicans currently have majorities in both the House and the Senate and they want to keep it that way.

Mike Smithson




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BREAKING: Trump orders cruise missile attack on Syria following the chemical weapon attack

Friday, April 7th, 2017

The new President’s first major military intervention

Trump said:

“Tonight I ordered a targeted military strike on the airfield in Syria from where the chemical attack was launched.

It is in this vital national security interest of the United States to prevent and deter the spread and use of deadly chemical weapons.

There can be no dispute that Syria used banned chemical weapons, violated its obligations under the chemical weapons convention, and ignored the urging of the UN security council.

Years of previous attempts at changing Assad’s behaviour have all failed and failed very dramatically.”

Mike Smithson