Archive for the 'Donald Trump' Category


The “Will Trump survive full term betting” edges back to him making it

Tuesday, August 22nd, 2017

I love today’s New York Daily News front page that I thought it would be a good peg to look at what are by far the biggest current political betting markets – will Trump survive a full term and what year will he leave the White House.

These tend to fluctuate sharply and in the past couple of days the money has moved back a notch to Trump’s survival.

In the aftermath of the white supremacist matches and Trump’s initial controversial comments the Betfair chances of him going the full term edged to a 44% chance. That’s now moved back to 47%.

As for the year of his exit 2020 and beyond has now become a stronger favorite following the bounce back. 2017 is now a 9% chance, 2018 27%, 2019 17% with 2020 and beyond 47%.

This is not a market I’ve gambled on. My feeling at the moment is that he will survive but that he’ll struggle to win a second term. I don’t like locking up cash on longer term bets unless the odds are far longer than what we have here. Also I think the betting in the UK is very much driven by the anti Trump sentiment – this is very much a heart over head market.

If you think he will go early and want to bet then now might be a good time.

Mike Smithson


New leader ratings in 3 state key to Trump’s 2016 victory have him with big favourability deficits

Sunday, August 20th, 2017

Those of us who stayed up all night for the White House election last November will recall the huge focus on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – states won by Obama in 2012 which went to the Republican last year.

These were won by the tightest of margins down to 1.23% in Wisconsin, 0.64% in Pennsylvania and 0.23% in Michigan and were central to Trump’s shock victory.

Now the latest Mairist/NBC News polling in these three states finds that Trump has a huge net ratings deficit. Given the well recorded linkage between favourability rating polls and electoral outcomes this does not look good for Trump if he is considering going for a second term.

They also send a sharp message out to his party that he could be en electoral liability which could impact on other elections. If he is to go early then senior Republican figures have to be the ones to pull the trigger.

In the betting Trump’s is now odds-on not to complete a full first term. Latest price have that at 55%.

Mike Smithson


In the end the GOP, not the Democrats, will determine Trump’s future

Sunday, August 13th, 2017

The American left seems unable to come to terms with Trump and doesn’t know how to deal with him. It’s his own side he should be worried about says Keiran Pedley

Donald Trump’s presidency may barely be 6 months old but it certainly feels like the die is being cast. The Russian investigation, healthcare fights and threat of war with North Korea are setting the tone for his first term as midterm elections loom next year.

America’s dark side rears its head

This weekend the world has looked on aghast at events in Virginia. At the time of writing a state of emergency has been declared as ‘alt-right protestors’ (e.g. neo Nazi thugs) march on Charlottesville to protest the removal of a statue of Confederate war hero Robert E Lee. Watching the violence on television is a sobering reminder of America’s past and how race continues to define politics there in a way – for all our faults – it simply doesn’t here.

Don’t press the button!

Meanwhile, in Korea tensions have risen in a way that feels different to before. North Korea now appears to have the ability to fire viable nuclear weapons. Experts continue to question their ability to fire them accurately but that will be little consolation to the people of Guam, the small US territory in the pacific that appears to be the sights of North Korean leader Kim Jung un.

Liberals react badly

As the pace of events picks up, America’s left has reacted with horror. It’s understandable. The far right appears to be quite literally on the march and Trump’s threats to meet North Korean aggression with ‘fire and fury’ make the prospect of a cataclysmic war in Asia seem frighteningly real.

With Republicans in control of Congress all Democrats can do is look on helplessly. That lack of Congressional control, plus a challenging electoral map next year, means Democrats need to get their message to the American people right as they look to turn the tide.

I’m concerned that they won’t. Many liberal commentators in the U.S. will have you believe that Trump is genuinely about the start a nuclear war (he isn’t) and that the morons in Charlottesville somehow represent the average Trump voter (they don’t).If they aren’t careful, their tendency to react hysterically to everything Trump says and does will end up being the political equivalent of the boy who cried wolf. Voters will stop listening and may start to believe Trump when he tells them that ‘they are all out to get me’. Bluntly, American liberals risk handing Trump an ability to fight back against them that he doesn’t deserve.

Look behind you Donald

With American liberals floundering for a message that resonates, plus a weak Democratic bench in 2020, my hunch is that Trump’s biggest problem may end up being his own side. His relationship with Senate leader Mitch McConnell has soured and a very interesting poll last week put Ohio Governor John Kasich 12 points ahead of Trump among Republicans in a hypothetical primary matchup in New Hampshire.

I’ve long been of the view that Trump will not get impeached but that he might face a challenge from his own side in 2020 that causes him not to run again. If Trump can’t get healthcare through and he allows North Korea to become an untouchable nuclear power then his opponents in the GOP (who will be horrified) will smell blood. This is before we consider the ramifications of the ongoing Russia investigation for the medium and long term political environment in Washington.
Watch South Carolina Senator and Trump critic Lindsey Graham, close friend of John McCain, who I see as a potential ‘stalking horse’ candidate in Iowa for 2020. He won’t be president but he could be the guy the performs well and persuades others to enter the race. It may well be that the 2020 Presidential Election doesn’t involve Donald Trump at all. A Democrat may end up in the White House in 2020 but I suspect the Kasich’s and Pence’s of this world are eyeing up the Oval Office too.

Keiran Pedley tweets about politics and public opinion at @keiranpedley


The Trump Presidency after 200 days and the ratings slump continues

Tuesday, August 8th, 2017


A new CNN/SSRS poll has been published overnight and the figures look even bleaker for the property billionaire who won last year’ White House race. These are some of the findings:

How Trump Is Handling Job as President

Strongly approve 24%
Moderately approve 14%
Moderately disapprove 9%
Strongly disapprove 47%

Is Trump Someone You Are Proud to Have As President?

Yes 34%
No 63%

Trust Most of What You Hear from the White House?

Yes 24%
No 73%

First six months of Trump’s time in office?:

A success 36%

A failure 59%

The betting, meanwhile, edges away from Trump completing a first term. I have yet to be tempted to have a punt.

Politically the big challenge facing Trump is maintaining the support of his party in the run-up to next November’s midterm elections. If those in Congress up for election next year see themselves losing because Trump is dragging the party down then he could be in real difficulty.

Mike Smithson


As Trump’s rating slump even more it’s now odds-on that he won’t serve a full term

Friday, August 4th, 2017


His approval ratings slump following the Obamacare change failure


The innards of the polls are terrible for the President

The big political story in the US over the past few weeks has been the failure of the White House to get the promised changes to ObamaCare through Congress. The proposals would have impacted on millions of Americans who rely on the system that the Democratic party introduced during the Obama Presidency for their health cover.

The efforts to get this through have dominated the news and the big message is that Trump’s controversial initiative has failed. This isn’t good for someone who has been in the White House for little more than six months.

We don’t need reminding that this failure comes at a time when the Republican party controls the House, the Senate and, of course, has Trump at the White House

PoliticalWire had a good analysis of the respected Quinnipiac poll that offers four choices when it asks its approval question. Do respondents approve strongly or somewhat or do they disapprove somewhat or strongly. The normal practice is to add the strongly and somewhats’ together to get the regular ratings.

    The breakdown had 55% of those sampled saying they disapprove strongly with 6% saying disapprove somewhat. This compared with 23% saying they approved of Trump strongly with 10% saying somewhat.

As seen in the RCP polling average chart above Quinnipiac numbers are very much in line with the rest.

Another appalling finding for Trump is that 54% to 26% voters say that they are embarrassed rather than proud to have Trump as president and by 57% to 40%, they say he is abusing the powers of his office.

Looming next year for Trump are the mid-term elections and those will focus the minds of the leadership of his party.

Mike Smithson


The betting edges a notch from Trump and now its a 51% chance that he won’t serve the full 4 year term

Tuesday, August 1st, 2017


Tonight’s cartoon on the crazy staff changes in the Trump White House

Monday, July 31st, 2017

Just trying to keep up with the ins and out in the Trump White House is becoming a huge challenge. In the past fortnight we’ve seen the exits Sean Spicer, the former press secretary, and Reince Priebus, the first chief of staff. Tonight’s news is that the President has removed Anthony Scaramucci from his Communications Director role after he’d served for just ten days.

Quite whether things will now settle down is hard to say but the rapidity of the changes hardly gives a good impression and responsibly, surely, rests in the Oval office.

Mike Smithson


After what’s been described as Trump’s worst week yet the betting stays with the president surviving

Sunday, July 30th, 2017

Chaos and back-stabbing have become the new norm

Based on publicly available betting data the main issue that’s attracted the interest of political punters in the past week has been whether or not Mr. Trump is going to survive as President to the end of a full term. The numbers are in the chart above and show that the UK betting markets rate his chances of remaining at 51%.

So far I’ve not been tempted by the Trump survival betting because I don’t like the betting options that are on offer. How many months that he serves as president would be a good spread market but, alas, the spread firms are far less imaginative than they were in the 1990s when Bill Clinton had all his troubles.

The President’s tumultuous week in which his main legislative objective of repealing ObamaCare failed is well described Peter Baker in the New York Times on the background to the latest White House staff moves.

“.The shake-up followed a week that saw the bombastic, with-me-or-against-me president defied as never before by Washington and its institutions, including Republicans in Congress, his own attorney general, the uniformed military leadership, police officers and even the Boy Scouts. No longer daunted by a president with a Twitter account that he uses like a Gatling gun, members of his own party made clear that they were increasingly willing to stand against him on issues like health care and Russia.

The setbacks came against the backdrop of a West Wing at war with itself, egged on by a president who thrives on conflict and chaos…”

At the moment the Republicans hold the White House, the House and the Senate a situation that might not survive the November 2018 mid-term elections. This should be the period when the Trump administration gets most done.

Mike Smithson