Archive for the 'Videos' Category


The Worst Economic Statistic?

Thursday, June 14th, 2018

There are many economic statistics, some broadly useful, others bizarrely esoteric. Only one manages to be both useless and dangerous. Worse: it’s trumpeted by journalists, so you may even have been taken in yourself. Welcome to the worst economic statistic.

Robert Smithson

Robert tweets as MarketWarbles follow him by clicking the follow button below


Italy: 50 ways to leave the Euro

Tuesday, June 12th, 2018

The latest video analysis from Robert Smithson

This is the most recent production from Robert who has been associated with PB right from the start in March 2004 and, indeed, was the person who suggested to me in the first place to establish the site.

Most PBers will know him from his regular and illuminating comments on the discussion threads.

He’s now producing regular video examinations on key business and economic issues and relevant one will now be published on PB. This is the latest on Italy and the Euro.

To make sure you don’t miss subscribe to the YouTube channel.

Mike Smithson


The PB Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast: Brexit, Zac’s by-election, UKIP’s leadership and whether LAB has a polling floor

Wednesday, October 26th, 2016

Detailed analysis of the issues and the numbers

A huge amount has happened in UK politics since the last show two weeks ago and joining Keiran Pedley (@KeiranPedley) are Asa Bennett (@AsaBenn) of the Telegraph and Leo Barasi (@leobarasi) of

BREXIT still totally dominates UK politics and the programme seeks to look at its likely impact in the by-election and, of course, the impact on the differents part of the UK.

Another area for analysis is Labour’s polling plight and whether there is a floor. Also in the show is a look at the UKIP leadership fight and the prospects for a Stop Brexit party.

Update – The audio only version of the podcast is available below.

Mike Smithson


Is Hillary Clinton really the certainty that she now appears – the main topic in this week’s PB/Polling Matters Podcast/TV Show

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters show Keiran is joined by US elections experts Mark Gettleson from Portobello Communications and hosts of the LSE US podcast ‘The Ballpark’ Denise Baron and Chris Gilson.

Topics discussed include reaction to Sunday’s debate and how the polls have moved since. Keiran questions whether US polls have an appropriately balanced sample. We look at polling on why US voters are voting the way they are – is it ‘for’ each candidate or ‘against’ their respective opponents? We also talk Trump’s war with Paul Ryan and the potential impact of early voting and what to expect from the battle for Congress.

Today’s guests can be found here -Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley), Mark Gettleson (@MarksOutOf100), Chris Gilson (@ChrisHJGilson) and Denise Baron (@BaronDenise)

You can listen to the LSE podcast ‘The Ballpark’ here. The podcast version of the TV is here.

Mike Smithson


Great (Br)expectations, why Tories don’t want a snap election and the Clinton ’surge’ – this week’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast

Wednesday, October 5th, 2016

Can TMay really meet what voters are expecting from BREXIT

This week Kieran Pedley and his guests, Rob Vance and Matt Singh, on the PB/Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast focus mostly on the Tories and the big issue that looks set to determine whether TMay is successful – the BREXIT negotiations. The polling suggests that people are expecting a lot and is the new PM going to have to disappoint?

Then there’s all the talk of a snap election which the PM rules out at every opportunity. Finally, with WH2016 getting even closer, the team look at what’s apparently, a Clinton recovery.

You can follow this week’s guests at:

The audio podcast version

Mike Smithson


The impact of the 1st debate on WH2016 & the prospects now for Corbyn: this week’s PB/Polling Matters TV show/podcast

Wednesday, September 28th, 2016

After a big few days in both UK and US politics the PB/Polling Matters looks in detail at the impact of Corbyn’s re-election and where the Trump-Clinton battle stands now. How much importance should we attach to the instant post debate polling and in the UK is there any way that Corbyn can now move forward following his convincing leadership victory.

Joining Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) are Rob Vance (@robvance) and Leo (@leobarasi)

Rob highights the post debate polling showing a boost for Clinton and the team discuss whether it will last. Keiran explains why he hasn’t ruled Trump out yet and Leo sets out a strategy Trump might take in the final few weeks of the campaign. Keiran and Rob then look at which states will be important to watch out for in upcoming polls.

Leo then moves on to Ian Warren’s Labour leadership exit poll by YouGov and the team discuss what Labour MPs will do next. Keiran looks at recent ICM and ComRes polling and what it might mean for a future Labour policy offer as the party seeks to reunite and make up ground versus the Tories.

Finally, the team look ahead to Theresa May’s first Tory conference speech and what Corbyn has to do to look like a PM-in-waiting.
Follow this week’s guests at:

The audio podcast version.

Mike Smithson


Betting on WH2016 & Witney plus prospects for a “LD fightback”- all looked at in latest PB/Polling Matters TV Show/ Podcast

Thursday, September 22nd, 2016

With the first WH2016 TV debate due to take place next Monday Keiran Pedley (@KeiranPedley), Matthew Shaddick (@Shadsy) of Ladbrokes, and Leo Barasi (@leobarasi ) look at where the race stands and what the mass of polling is suggesting. In the UK the team look at the LDs who’ve just finished their conference and try to assess the chances of a fightback.

With Shadsy on the show there’s a fair amount of focus on the betting particularly on WH2016 and next month’s Witney by-election.

Here’s the audio version podcast.

Mike Smithson


Can Smith win? What voters want from BREXIT & the doctors strike: All in latest PB/Polling Matters TV show/podcast

Wednesday, September 7th, 2016

Keiran is back after a week off to discuss the latest polling and political developments with Katy Owen and Leo Barasi. 

As per the new format of the show each guest chooses some polling that they think is interesting and the group discuss what it means. Topics discussed this week include:

1) Leo reacts to Don Brind’s analysis on the last show that Owen Smith can still win and looks at Corybn’s impact on the Labour brand

2) Keiran looks at what Ashcroft polling tells us about what voters want from Brexit and what it means for government

3) Katy looks at YouGov polling on potential future Junior Doctors strike

..and then Keiran explains why his trip to America makes him think that Trump could still win.

You can follow this week’s guests on twitter here

Don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on iTunes and give the show a (nice) rating or comment.
The Audio only version is available here