If the election is running to plan then the first ballot papers should be going out to qualified voters in the three sections of the electoral college at the end of next week.

So far the only firm polling evidence has been the single YouGov survey of party members and those trade unionists who are qualified to vote - but that is now nearly a month ago. A lot has happened since the end of July.

I’m continuing to maintain balanced positions on both DaveM and EdM and I’m well covered if one of the others sensationally stages a recovery. So whatever happens September 25th is going to be a nice pay-day.

The EdM campaign is the only one that is keeping me informed and it say that the telephone canvassing of union members has been producing a good reaction.

Who really knows? With a bit of luck there should be a new YouGov poll of eligible voters in the next week or so.

Mike Smithson

Evening Standard

Who’ll be the new favourite as Cameron’s successor?

The big news in London politics this lunchtime has been that Boris Johnson has ended the speculation and announced that he will be running for a second term as Mayor in 2012.

This has an impact on two betting markets - who’ll be the next Mayor and who’ll be the next Tory leader.

For, amazingly, given he’s not been an MP since 2008, Boris has become the favourite to take over from David Cameron. I could never quite work this one out but PaddyPower have him at 3/1 while with Ladbrokes he’s at 5/1.

To me there were just too many obstacles for this to be possible. The timing of the London election didn’t help because it was hard to envisage Boris stepping down in 2012 only to have to wait until 2015 to get back into parliament.

In any case, as Michael Poritillo will no doubt tell you, it is quite hard for an MP returning after an absence to make an impact amongst fellow members of the parliamentary party.

So who should we be backing? I don’t know but there’s one betting rule that we should always remember - the early favourite NEVER wins Tory leadership contests.

Labour is choosing its London candidate at the moment and it’s hard to see beyond Ken Livingstone.

BoJo-Ken again - that sounds like fun.

Mike Smithson

Could the timing issue cause a coalition split?

As we recall the concession that finally delivered the Lib Dems as coalition partners with the Tories was the voting reform referendum and the measure was included in yesterday’s Queen’s Speech. It’s this, of course, that the Blues found most difficult to swallow.

The question that could cause a rift is when it takes place. According the the Guardian the LDs are pushing for it to be earlier rather than later with May 5 2011 - the day of next year’s local, Scottish and Welsh elections being suggested.

The coalition partners would campaign on either side of the voting reform argument which would make it much easier for the yellows in their first big post-coalition deal election test.

The May 2011 elections have been flagged as ones when Clegg’s party could come under severe pressure and to be seen to be against the blues on this big matter would make it easier to assert their separate identity

It would also demonstrate to supporters one big tangible thing that they got from agreeing to the deal.

It’s planned that the referendum measure will be included in a bill that will include other key changes such as larger constituencies which are equalised in size - a measure that could make the electoral system less Labour-friendly. This, it’s said, could take time and make it difficult meeting the May 2011 date.

Who is going to win the coalition timing argument? When will the referendum be held? Will Britain adopt a new voting system. All of these look like good issues for political betting markets.

Mike Smithson

Commons Library Research - 2009 local elections

Is it their resource that’s making the difference in the marginals?

This is to highlight the excellent piece put up on PB2 a few hours ago by Bunnco - in his series of what might be causing the bigger swings in the marginals.

For in his second look at the issue he suggests that the massive decline in Labour councillors in the key seats together with the corresponding increase in Tory ones might be providing Cameron’s party with an extra edge.

For having a councillor does two main things - it means that the wards to you hold are worked at much harder and it also can result in extra cash coming into local party coffers.

For one of the big changes in local government in recent times has been the allowances that are paid to councillors and there’s a strong tradition for parts of this to be ploughed back into the election machine that won the ward in the first place.

And all the experience is that when you lose council seats, as Labour has been doing on a big scale in recent times, then it undermines your on-the-ground campaigning capabilities.

A lot is made of the resource that Michael Ashcroft has pumped in to key seats. My guess is that this has been dwarfed by what councillors are doing.

Bunnco’s analysis is well worth reading,

Mike Smithson