Why did the SNP make Glasgow their key target?

In our PB prediction poll a couple of weeks ago a reasonable majority of participants said that the SNP would win control of the city of Glasgow.

That was understandable given the hype that was coming from north of the border. For weeks this has been paraded as Alex Salmond’s big objective for May 3rd and the latest news is that the SNP has fallen short by some distance.

In fact Labour has actually won back overall control.

The “SNP taking of Glasgow” very much shaped the narrative about the elections in Scotland so much so that the party’s failure will come as an even bigger big set-back.

This calls into question the so called “Alex Salmond magic” that we saw a year ago in the Holyrood elections.

His political reputation is tarnished and that might have reprucssions in the independence negotiations and referendum. Salmond’s not quite the invincible force that he was.

Why oh why did such a smart operator allow a target to be set which wasn’t achievable? We’ve seen time and time again that the Scottish Labour party is brilliant at elections particularly when it’s back is to the wall.

Maybe the revelations in the past few days about Salmond’s lobbying on behalf Rupert Murdoch have had an impact. Who knows? Whatever the SNP’s hubris was a mistake and could cost them dear.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Betfair

At what stage will the market switch?

After being totally hammered in the local elections you would expect that punters would take a fresh look at the chances of the Tories winning most seats at the next general election.

The panel above gives the prices at 0824 this morning with a price of 1.88 (that’s 0.88/1 in real money) on the Conservatives winning most seats. The blues have been solid favourites since the market was set up after the 2010 general election though it has been shifting a bit to LAB.

I wonder how long this will remain? Will the widespread perception that the party will come on top again change after yesterday’s elections?

Like their coalition partners, the LDs, overnight the Tories were absolutely hammered by Labour. Not only were having to cope with the red onslaught but in ward after ward where there was a UKIP candidate they saw their share hit even more.

A year ago the Tories were able to more than make up their losses to Labour by winning a pile of seats from the Lib Dems. From the results seen overnight it’s clear that that is not going to happen again. Instead in CON-LD fights the yellows have the edge and look set to be net winners against the Tories.

Worryingly for the blues from a general election perspective Clegg’s party has been doing well in the areas where they have MPs and face the Tories. The one council where the LDs lost control was Cambridge where Labour is the main opponent.

The hope for 2015, of course, is that the economy will have turned by then. Possibly but there is far less time left.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

A time-line based on what results we’ll see first

Thanks to the Tory election analyst, Rob Hayward for this:

CON-LD seats. Shire districts (not in terms of change of control but are the Tories gaining seats or not where they did last year) St Albans, Southend, Milton Keynes

Later (but intermingled with CON-LD areas) will come CON-LAB contests. (Again not necessarily change of control) Plymouth, Southampton, Walsall, Harlow, Thurrock, Derby, Dudley

Very much later and into tomorrow LD-LAB. With many cities where there are mayoral ballots (of whatever sort) delaying counts till tomorrow and multi member wards up in Wales, the nature of LD losses to Lab will not be clear till tomorrow. (whereas they were evident from the start last year). The LDs are also likely to lose a lot of seats (to both Lab and SNP) in Scotland which will not come through till at least midday tomorrow.

LAB-PC early tomorrow morning

LAB-SNP-at lunchtime tomorrow at the earliest.

Have a great night.

There’s a full list of estimates result timings here.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

But which one will be most accurate?

There another London mayoral poll out, an online survey from Opinium - the online firm which never seems to want to communicate with me. (Hi guys could you put me on your email list?). It has Boris 43%/Ken 37%/Paddick 7%/Jones 6%/Benita 3%/ UKIP 3%.

Opinium’s figures for the top two are pretty close to YouGov and the overall picture from five different firms is that Boris will be staying at City Hall. In the face of such evidence it is very hard to call it any other way.

It is not often that we get the chance to test a number of pollsters against a real outcome and each of their performances will be quoted time and time again.

The big battle could be for the London Assembly on which there are just 25 places. Its main power is that it can, with a two thirds majority, block the mayor’s budget. So if the Tories are reduced to 8 or fewer seats the Boris’s second terms might be a tad more challenging than the first.

YouGov were suggesting from their figures that the blues were going to win fewer than nine places.

One of my bets that looks promising is the one that Richard Nabavi recommended on Tuesday night – the 2/1 that was then available on Boris winning the mayoralty and LAB winning most seats on the assembly. The bet is no longer available.

@MikeSmithsonOGH