Archive for the 'UKIP' Category


Looking at the UKIP leadership race

Tuesday, September 12th, 2017

Matthew Shaddick (Shadsy) of Ladbrokes on the UKIP leadership race.

This year’s running of the UKIP leadership race might not have attracted all that much attention, but it’s probably one of the most open and unpredictable party leader elections I can remember. Of the seven candidates left, six have a plausible shot at winning and there could be plenty of betting value around.

Long time favourite Peter Whittle looks a very shaky front-runner. Once as short as 2/5, he’s now 6/4 and not that many people seem interested in risking any cash on him at the moment.. Probably the best known in party circles coming into this election, he hasn’t been overly impressive in the media appearances that I have seen. Maybe his greater name recognition will get him home, but I’d want a bigger price.

Jane Collins was a 100/1 shot before a few other potential candidates dropped out and agreed to support her and she’s now 8/1. Unfortunately for her, those drop-outs came to late to be removed from the ballot paper so the likes of David Coburn will probably still nick a few votes away from her.

David Kurten got a boost when Raheem Kassam endorsed him last week, which might be a hint that he’d be acceptable to Nigel Farage. Nige has kept away from promoting anyone openly, although he’s made it pretty clear that he doesn’t want Anne Marrie Waters. 10/1.

John Rees-Evans, although miles behind Paul Nuttall, got a very creditable 18% in the last leadership race. He seems to have the best social media minions working for him, but maybe his past indiscretions will prove too much. Not totally impossible at 12/1

Henry Bolton has been, by some accounts, the best performer at the various hustings around the country. A former Army officer, he seems a relatively credible option despite being pretty unknown coming into this. I’ve had a few quid on him; currently 7/1 with Ladbrokes

Someone called Aidan Powlesland is still in the betting at 100/1 but Ladbrokes have yet to take a single bet on this person.

Which leaves us with the big unknown of how anti-Islam campaigner Anne Marie Waters will perform. We really have very little information about how well her message will go down with UKIP members. She’s certainly getting a lot of support on twitter, although how much difference that will make is hard to say. Still, I can see why people might still want to back her at 7/4. With the other five realistic runners all attracting some sort of following, it’s extremely likely that anyone getting 30% of the vote will win this, which seems more than achievable for her. Don’t be surprised if she’s favourite before long.

Matthew Shaddick (Shadsy) is Head of Political Odds at Ladbrokes


The UKIP leadership race – Alastair Meeks marks your card

Tuesday, August 8th, 2017

As Mike Smithson pointed out last week, these are fallow days for political betting. We have been spoiled in recent years with a nonstop cavalcade of elections, referendums and leadership contests. We are suffering withdrawal pangs.

So far this summer, only UKIP have given us a full-blown leadership election. (The Lib Dems let us down by having a walkover.) Interest in this election, as in the party itself this year, has been minimal. With UKIP leadership elections being so frequent, they may be suffering from the decline in quality and audience that is commonly observed in the later instalments of long-running film franchises.

UKIP elects its leader by first past the post. With eleven candidates having submitted nomination papers by 4 August, the closing date, it is time to inspect the field. All prices are Ladbrokes as at the date of writing.

Peter Whittle (4/9)

London Assembly member. Current deputy leader, culture and communities spokesman. Gay (he claims never to have come across homophobia in UKIP), atheist. “The biggest issues of our time are cultural ones… Nobody voted for multiculturalism.” In the past he has proposed a registry for London’s brownfield sites, taxing buy-to-let landlords at a higher rate if their properties are empty and prioritising longterm London residents for social housing. In favour of gay marriage. In favour of a burka ban and seen as one of the “Islam-focussed” candidates.

He has labelled Hillary Clinton as being “as deeply unsavoury” as Vladimir Putin and compared the “expansionist impulse” of Russia with that of the EU “and so this makes for a very, very difficult and very touchy situation.”

Anne-Marie Waters (4/1)

Previously a Labour party member, director of Sharia Watch UK and co-founder (with Tommy Robinson and Paul Weston) of Pegida UK. Admirer of Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders.

Lesbian, in a civil partnership. Has called Islam “evil” and “a killing machine”. “It’ll be another 20 years of rape, terror, erosion of liberty before professional politicians are forced to give the principled a chance.” Like her compatriot Father Ted, she is anxious to insist that she is not a racist.

Opposed by the UKIP hierarchy including Nigel Farage (who said the party would be finished if she became leader) and Arron Banks. Some have expressed fears of far right entryism to secure victory for her. May be excluded from the race by party hierarchy in the vetting process.

John Rees-Evans (7/1)

Sees himself as a Faragist, wants to shrink the size of government and massively expand the use of direct democracy. Favours much greater use of vocational education.

Supporter of right to bear arms, owner of fortified compound in Bulgaria, claimed that a homosexual donkey had tried to rape his horse. Took 18% of the vote in the last leadership election.

David Kurten (10/1)

London Assembly member, UKIP education and apprenticeships spokesman. Has three degrees. “I will make the implementation of a tripartite education system a top priority with grammar schools for the academically talented, technical schools to train young people with an aptitude for practical and vocational skills, and general schools to ensure that all children have the personal and entrepreneurial skills and employability to succeed in the world of work if they leave formal education at 16.” Opposed to compulsory relationships education on the basis that “this will allow sexual propaganda which is grossly age-inappropriate to confuse and damage young children”. Seeks “a special and esteemed place for our Judaeo-Christian traditions and heritage”. Supported by Leave.EU.

Henry Bolton (16/1)

Former infantry officer, police officer, international trouble-shooter, commended for outstanding bravery by the police in 1997. Stood as UKIP’s candidate for Kent police commissioner in 2016. Positioning himself to lead a non-ideological party offering effective leadership to “Deliver for Britain”. Focussing on party reform and processes for policy development.

David Coburn (25/1)

UKIP MEP in Scotland. Gay. Keen to “release the shackles” through hard Brexit. Describes himself as “a Libertarian and a proud Unionist”.

Compared Humza Yousaf, a Scottish government minister, to Abu Hamza. Called Ruth Davidson “a fat lesbian”. Described women as “men with a womb”. Indefinitely banned from wikipedia for directing edits to his own page.

Aidan Powlesland (50/1)

UKIP South Suffolk candidate at the 2017 general election. Campaigned for investment to encourage the design of an interstellar colony ship and profitably mining the asteroid belt for water and/or platinum, so long as they do so by 2026.

Ben Walker (50/1)

Local councillor and positioning himself as a grassroots candidate. Ex forces. Recognises that he is an unknown, but believes that the party is dying. Positioning himself as a candidate for libertarians and classic liberals. Not a single issue anti-Islam campaigner. Pledging direct democracy within UKIP.

David Allen (50/1)

Author, contributor to UKIP Daily. Acknowledges he’s unlikely to win, aiming to present an alternative vision that a leader can implement. “Ironically, the only ‘cliff edge’ associated with Brexit, is the one our members are falling off. We have no parliamentary presence and have lost our standing as a major party.”

Opposed to burka ban, would deport Islamist idealists at the end of prison sentences. “What should happen is that local authorities would tell central government their migration requirements and not the other way round.”

In favour of electoral reform to a system called F2PTP (First Two Past The Post).

Jane Collins (50/1)

UKIP MEP for Yorkshire & The Humber. Describes herself as a progressive libertarian. “I’m offering a real alternative to the other options of EDL-lite or diet Labour.”

Claimed Rotherham MPs Sir Kevin Barron, John Healey and Sarah Champion knew about child exploitation in the town but did not intervene, and as a result faces bankruptcy for non-payment of defamation damages.

Marion Mason (50/1)

Former Parliamentary and PCC candidate, NEC member. No manifesto or up to date twitter account. Not a gifted speller.


Keener eyes than mine are needed to distinguish reliably between the serious candidates and the joke candidates. Aidan Powlesland is surely the Foinavon of this race, only capable of winning if the rest are thrown from their mounts.

Both the favourite and the second favourite look set to remodel UKIP into a party familiar to the supporters of Geert Wilders and Marine Le Pen, with a strongly anti-Islam focus. Most of the other candidates seem agreed that UKIP urgently needs to change but don’t really seem clear how. Sadly, there is probably a ready market for strident anti-Islamic populism. It would at least grab attention.

However, one or two of the longshots look too longpriced. Unlike every other candidate, Henry Bolton has a distinguished cv with impressive achievements. If he could find something meaningful to say to go with it, he might be worth a flutter.

David Kurten has secured the backing of Leave.EU. That is almost certainly worth a fair bit with this particular electorate. I backed him at 16/1 and he is probably still value at 10/1. In a first past the post election with a wide field, the chances of someone coming through the middle are substantial. I’m on.

Alastair Meeks


And now for the Corbyn of the Right

Monday, July 3rd, 2017

For the second time since 2015 a British party might have fallen victim to entryism.

Today it was reported that

Ukip MEPs are preparing a mass walkout if an anti-Islam leadership candidate backed by Tommy Robinson is given a senior position at the top of the party.

Officials are panicking that a wave of far-right activists have infiltrated the party in order to vote for the controversial Anne Marie Waters, with one source describing them as the “Brownshirts’ Momentum” – a reference to Adolf Hitler’s militia during his rise to power.

Waters, who founded the Sharia Watch pressure group, has described Islam as “evil” and a “killing machine”, and teamed up with ex- EDL leader Tommy Robinson to form the anti-Islam group Pegida UK.

Ukip banned her from standing for the party in June’s General Election – but did not kick her out.

Several Ukip sources claim Waters has done a deal with leadership front-runner Peter Whittle to become deputy leader if he is victorious in the race.

HuffPost UK has learnt senior party figures will be holding “informal talks” in Strasbourg this week to discuss what to do if Waters wins the leadership contest or is handed the position of deputy leader.

One source believes 18 of the 20 MEPs could quit the party – including Nigel Farage.

Speaking to HuffPost UK, one MEP said mass resignations “would be an inevitable consequence” of her winning the leadership or being made deputy leader.

Another MEP said: “I think every MEP would quit apart from Stuart Agnew and perhaps Gerard Batten.”

Bill Etheridge, the West Midlands MEP who came third in the first of Ukip’s leadership elections last year, said he would  “immediately resign” if Waters becomes leader.

“I am appalled that she is even allowed in the party. There’s been a failure of the management of the party in allowing her to be involved in the race.”

Whilst the Guardian have a UKIP source saying “It’s possible that in a multi-horse race without a favourite, an election would be won with 5,000 votes. So 1,000 new members in just two weeks is potentially a fair way towards distorting the result.” I’m fairly certain UKIP now wish they used AV to elect their leaders and not first past the post, AV is one of the best options in stopping an extreme candidate winning in circumstances like this.

At the time of writing you can get 4/1 and 2/1 on Waters and Whittle respectively to win the UKIP leadership, I’m keeping out of this market.

One final point, I wonder what first attracted the ‘Brownshirts Momentum’ to UKIP?



Why UKIP standing aside in a particular seat might not be as beneficial to the Tories as might appear

Monday, May 15th, 2017

I am sure that I am not the only PBer who is spending a lot of time at the moment looking up Wikipedia pages on interesting constituencies to try to work out whether a particular bet is good value or not.

One seat is Don Valley in Yorkshire where longstanding PBer, Aaron Bell (Tissue Price) is standing for the Conservatives. The figures from last time are above.

The big thing we found out at the end of last week was that UKIP was not fielding a candidate there and I’ve no doubt that many have looked at the Tory vote from GE2015 and added it to UKIP figure and started to draw conclusions. If all the kipper vote goes to Aaron then he’s a good chance of becoming an MP.

Before we get carried away, however, I suggest reading a new article by Professor Stephen Fisher on this very matter in which he looked at the detailed data from 969 divisions in this month’s local elections.

“..Regression analysis shows that where UKIP started with around 13% (taking their vote share in the 2015 General Election as an example) the swing from Labour to the Conservatives was 3.9 points if UKIP stood again, and 4.6 points if they dropped out. A difference of just 0.7 points.

Similarly, the swing from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives was 1.8 points if UKIP stood again, and 2.3 points if they dropped out. A difference of just 0.5 points.

These differences, the dropout effects, get larger the stronger the UKIP starting point. But they are never very big. For the divisions where UKIP got more than 30% in 2013, the effect of dropout is to increase the swings from either Labour and the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives by just 2 points each on average.

The reason UKIP dropout had such a small effect on the swings to the Conservatives is that it benefited all three of the other main parties, it just helped the Conservatives a bit more.

There’s another factor that could come into play as well. At the Richmond Park by-election last December UKIP stood aside in order to help Zac retain the seat. This led to two developments that wern’t helpful to him – the Greens pulled out and the UKIP decision was used to try to persuade LAB voters to tactically vote LD.

I’m sure that LAB and the LDs will seek to make a UKIP pull-out in key general election seats an argument to try to get tactical voting for the contender most able to beat the Conservative.

Mike Smithson


How the votes moved to UKIP and how they’ve moved away with CON taking more than they lost

Friday, May 5th, 2017

The story of 2017

Mike Smithson


Two seats which UKIP won last time amongst tonight’s local elections

Thursday, April 6th, 2017

Elmhurst on Aylesbury Vale (UKIP defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservative 43, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 4, Labour 2, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 27)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Liberal Democrats 729, 652 (26%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 666, 567 (23%)
Labour 632, 516 (22%)
Conservatives 604, 496 (21%)
Green Party 220, 131 (8%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 52,877 (49.5%), LEAVE 53,956 (50.5%) on a turnout of 78%
Candidates duly nominated: Nigel Foster (Green), Phil Gomm (UKIP), Susan Morgan (Lib Dem), Gary Paxton (Lab), Ammer Raheel (Con)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy, but dry 10°C
Estimate: Liberal Democrat GAIN from UKIP (Lib Dem 37%, Con 24%, Lab 21%, UKIP 13%, Green 5%)

Walcot on Bath and North East Somerset (Lib Dem defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservative 37, Liberal Democrats 15, Labour 6, Independents 5, Green Party 2 (Conservative majority of 9)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Liberal Democrats 1,323, 768 (37%)
Conservatives 795, 695 (23%)
Green Party 772, 765 (22%)
Labour 516, 492 (15%)
Independent 132 (3%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 60,878 (58%) LEAVE 44,352 (42%) on a turnout of 77%
Candidates duly nominated: Richard Samuel (Lib Dem), Tim Stoneman (Green), Brian Webber (Con), Amber Weston (Lab)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy, but dry 11°C
Estimate: Liberal Democrat HOLD (Lib Dem 49%, Con 24%, Lab 14%, Green 12%)

Hipperholme and Lightcliffe on Calderdale (Con defence, death of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 23, Conservatives 22, Liberal Democrats 5, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 3)
Result of ward at last election (2016): Conservative 1,998 (65%), Labour 526 (17%), Liberal Democrat 319 (10%), Green Party 249 (8%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 46,950 (44%) LEAVE 58,975 (56%) on a turnout of 71%
Candidates duly nominated: Elaine Hey (Green), Alisdair McGregor (Lib Dem), George Robinson (Con), Oliver Willows (Lab)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy, but dry 8°C
Estimate: Conservative HOLD (Con 57%, Lib Dem 20%, Lab 19%, Green 4%)

St. James on Tendring (Coastal Independent defence, death of sitting member elected as UKIP)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 23, United Kingdom Independence Party 22, Independents 7, Labour 4, Ratepayers 3, Liberal Democrat 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 8)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
United Kingdom Independence Party 933, 741 (39%)
Conservatives 848, 770 (35%)
Labour 385 (16%)
Independent 244 (10%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 25,210 (31%) LEAVE 57,447 (69%) on a turnout of 74%
Candidates duly nominated: Maurice Alexander (Con), Wendy Brown (Lab), Rosemary Dodds (Green), Sean Duffy (Lib Dem), Teresa O’Hara (UKIP)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy, but dry 10°C
Estimate: Conservative GAIN from UKIP (Con 33%, Lib Dem 22%, UKIP 21%, Lab 16%, Green 8%)

Compiled by Harry Hayfield


Will the last person to quit UKIP please remember to turn out the lights

Thursday, April 6th, 2017

Mark Reckless, 2nd CON MP to defect to UKIP in 2014,rejoins the blue team

Just two weeks afte UKIP’s first elected MP, Douglas Carswell, announced that he was leaving the party the second big MP defector from 2014, Mark Reckless, has announced that he’s doing the same.

Reckless had been MP for Rochester in Kent and won the by-election the following his defection. He failed, however, to retain the seat at the 2015 General Election period and last year he was elected to the Welsh Assembly a position he has held since.

Quite how this move will be welcomed by the blue team is hard to say. There was a huge amount of resentment about his actions in 2014 and it was felt that the timing and manner of his move was designed to cause the maximum of damage to Cameron’s party.

There was a huge effort by the Tories at the general election to win back the seat which day did easily.

With two major defections from UKIP in such a period the impression it’s certainly coming over other party that is going through a crisis. Ukip’s main area of electoral strength, ts MEP base at the European Parliament, is going to cease to exist in just two years time when Britain leaves the EU. The purples are also predicted to have a very tough next month’s set of local elections.

Whatever it’s current situation you cannot deny that the party has been remarkably successful in its main aim – the extraction of the UK from the EU. Since then it has been hard to see the point.

No doubt there will be some betting markets linked to UKIP put up in the next day or so.

Mike Smithson


UKIP drops to ZERO MPs following Carswell’s decision to leave the party

Saturday, March 25th, 2017

In happier times – Farage with his CON defector in 2014

But no by-election, he’ll remain in Commons as an independent

This lunchtime’s announcement from Douglas Carswell, the MP for Clacton, that he’s to leave UKIP is hardly a surprise. He had been largely detached from the party for months and and it really became a question of not if he would leave the purples but when.

He always appeared uncomfortable with UKIP’s emphasis on immigration and campaigned in the referendum with Vote Leave.

But he is not as some had expected re-joining the Conservatives. He said that he will remain as an MP as an independent. I guess is that he might well join the blues again possibly before the general election.

Given that he resigned and fought a by-election two and a half years ago after he defected to UKIP he would have found it difficult to go directly to the Conservatives and not do the same. Becoming an independent is less of an issue.

    All of this highlights what has become Ukip’s bugbear – its abject failure to be able to secure seats under first past the post. Almost the only elections where it has been successful have been there’s does a proportional element – for the European Parliament and, of course, the list seats for the Welsh Assembly.

The UK leaving the EU in 2019 will put an end to its MEP representation and the next Welsh elections are not till 2021. That’s a long time for the party to go through.

So Britain’s most dysfunctional party becomes even more dysfunctional.

Mike Smithson