Archive for the 'UKIP' Category

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And now for the Corbyn of the Right

Monday, July 3rd, 2017

For the second time since 2015 a British party might have fallen victim to entryism.

Today it was reported that

Ukip MEPs are preparing a mass walkout if an anti-Islam leadership candidate backed by Tommy Robinson is given a senior position at the top of the party.

Officials are panicking that a wave of far-right activists have infiltrated the party in order to vote for the controversial Anne Marie Waters, with one source describing them as the “Brownshirts’ Momentum” – a reference to Adolf Hitler’s militia during his rise to power.

Waters, who founded the Sharia Watch pressure group, has described Islam as “evil” and a “killing machine”, and teamed up with ex- EDL leader Tommy Robinson to form the anti-Islam group Pegida UK.

Ukip banned her from standing for the party in June’s General Election – but did not kick her out.

Several Ukip sources claim Waters has done a deal with leadership front-runner Peter Whittle to become deputy leader if he is victorious in the race.

HuffPost UK has learnt senior party figures will be holding “informal talks” in Strasbourg this week to discuss what to do if Waters wins the leadership contest or is handed the position of deputy leader.

One source believes 18 of the 20 MEPs could quit the party – including Nigel Farage.

Speaking to HuffPost UK, one MEP said mass resignations “would be an inevitable consequence” of her winning the leadership or being made deputy leader.

Another MEP said: “I think every MEP would quit apart from Stuart Agnew and perhaps Gerard Batten.”

Bill Etheridge, the West Midlands MEP who came third in the first of Ukip’s leadership elections last year, said he would  “immediately resign” if Waters becomes leader.

“I am appalled that she is even allowed in the party. There’s been a failure of the management of the party in allowing her to be involved in the race.”

Whilst the Guardian have a UKIP source saying “It’s possible that in a multi-horse race without a favourite, an election would be won with 5,000 votes. So 1,000 new members in just two weeks is potentially a fair way towards distorting the result.” I’m fairly certain UKIP now wish they used AV to elect their leaders and not first past the post, AV is one of the best options in stopping an extreme candidate winning in circumstances like this.

At the time of writing you can get 4/1 and 2/1 on Waters and Whittle respectively to win the UKIP leadership, I’m keeping out of this market.

One final point, I wonder what first attracted the ‘Brownshirts Momentum’ to UKIP?

TSE



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Why UKIP standing aside in a particular seat might not be as beneficial to the Tories as might appear

Monday, May 15th, 2017

I am sure that I am not the only PBer who is spending a lot of time at the moment looking up Wikipedia pages on interesting constituencies to try to work out whether a particular bet is good value or not.

One seat is Don Valley in Yorkshire where longstanding PBer, Aaron Bell (Tissue Price) is standing for the Conservatives. The figures from last time are above.

The big thing we found out at the end of last week was that UKIP was not fielding a candidate there and I’ve no doubt that many have looked at the Tory vote from GE2015 and added it to UKIP figure and started to draw conclusions. If all the kipper vote goes to Aaron then he’s a good chance of becoming an MP.

Before we get carried away, however, I suggest reading a new article by Professor Stephen Fisher on this very matter in which he looked at the detailed data from 969 divisions in this month’s local elections.

“..Regression analysis shows that where UKIP started with around 13% (taking their vote share in the 2015 General Election as an example) the swing from Labour to the Conservatives was 3.9 points if UKIP stood again, and 4.6 points if they dropped out. A difference of just 0.7 points.

Similarly, the swing from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives was 1.8 points if UKIP stood again, and 2.3 points if they dropped out. A difference of just 0.5 points.

These differences, the dropout effects, get larger the stronger the UKIP starting point. But they are never very big. For the divisions where UKIP got more than 30% in 2013, the effect of dropout is to increase the swings from either Labour and the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives by just 2 points each on average.

The reason UKIP dropout had such a small effect on the swings to the Conservatives is that it benefited all three of the other main parties, it just helped the Conservatives a bit more.

There’s another factor that could come into play as well. At the Richmond Park by-election last December UKIP stood aside in order to help Zac retain the seat. This led to two developments that wern’t helpful to him – the Greens pulled out and the UKIP decision was used to try to persuade LAB voters to tactically vote LD.

I’m sure that LAB and the LDs will seek to make a UKIP pull-out in key general election seats an argument to try to get tactical voting for the contender most able to beat the Conservative.

Mike Smithson




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How the votes moved to UKIP and how they’ve moved away with CON taking more than they lost

Friday, May 5th, 2017

The story of 2017

Mike Smithson




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Two seats which UKIP won last time amongst tonight’s local elections

Thursday, April 6th, 2017

Elmhurst on Aylesbury Vale (UKIP defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservative 43, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 4, Labour 2, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 27)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Liberal Democrats 729, 652 (26%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 666, 567 (23%)
Labour 632, 516 (22%)
Conservatives 604, 496 (21%)
Green Party 220, 131 (8%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 52,877 (49.5%), LEAVE 53,956 (50.5%) on a turnout of 78%
Candidates duly nominated: Nigel Foster (Green), Phil Gomm (UKIP), Susan Morgan (Lib Dem), Gary Paxton (Lab), Ammer Raheel (Con)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy, but dry 10°C
Estimate: Liberal Democrat GAIN from UKIP (Lib Dem 37%, Con 24%, Lab 21%, UKIP 13%, Green 5%)

Walcot on Bath and North East Somerset (Lib Dem defence, resignation of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservative 37, Liberal Democrats 15, Labour 6, Independents 5, Green Party 2 (Conservative majority of 9)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Liberal Democrats 1,323, 768 (37%)
Conservatives 795, 695 (23%)
Green Party 772, 765 (22%)
Labour 516, 492 (15%)
Independent 132 (3%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 60,878 (58%) LEAVE 44,352 (42%) on a turnout of 77%
Candidates duly nominated: Richard Samuel (Lib Dem), Tim Stoneman (Green), Brian Webber (Con), Amber Weston (Lab)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy, but dry 11°C
Estimate: Liberal Democrat HOLD (Lib Dem 49%, Con 24%, Lab 14%, Green 12%)

Hipperholme and Lightcliffe on Calderdale (Con defence, death of sitting member)
Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 23, Conservatives 22, Liberal Democrats 5, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 3)
Result of ward at last election (2016): Conservative 1,998 (65%), Labour 526 (17%), Liberal Democrat 319 (10%), Green Party 249 (8%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 46,950 (44%) LEAVE 58,975 (56%) on a turnout of 71%
Candidates duly nominated: Elaine Hey (Green), Alisdair McGregor (Lib Dem), George Robinson (Con), Oliver Willows (Lab)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy, but dry 8°C
Estimate: Conservative HOLD (Con 57%, Lib Dem 20%, Lab 19%, Green 4%)

St. James on Tendring (Coastal Independent defence, death of sitting member elected as UKIP)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 23, United Kingdom Independence Party 22, Independents 7, Labour 4, Ratepayers 3, Liberal Democrat 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 8)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
United Kingdom Independence Party 933, 741 (39%)
Conservatives 848, 770 (35%)
Labour 385 (16%)
Independent 244 (10%)
EU Referendum Result (2016): REMAIN 25,210 (31%) LEAVE 57,447 (69%) on a turnout of 74%
Candidates duly nominated: Maurice Alexander (Con), Wendy Brown (Lab), Rosemary Dodds (Green), Sean Duffy (Lib Dem), Teresa O’Hara (UKIP)
Weather at close of polls: Cloudy, but dry 10°C
Estimate: Conservative GAIN from UKIP (Con 33%, Lib Dem 22%, UKIP 21%, Lab 16%, Green 8%)

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



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Will the last person to quit UKIP please remember to turn out the lights

Thursday, April 6th, 2017

Mark Reckless, 2nd CON MP to defect to UKIP in 2014,rejoins the blue team

Just two weeks afte UKIP’s first elected MP, Douglas Carswell, announced that he was leaving the party the second big MP defector from 2014, Mark Reckless, has announced that he’s doing the same.

Reckless had been MP for Rochester in Kent and won the by-election the following his defection. He failed, however, to retain the seat at the 2015 General Election period and last year he was elected to the Welsh Assembly a position he has held since.

Quite how this move will be welcomed by the blue team is hard to say. There was a huge amount of resentment about his actions in 2014 and it was felt that the timing and manner of his move was designed to cause the maximum of damage to Cameron’s party.

There was a huge effort by the Tories at the general election to win back the seat which day did easily.

With two major defections from UKIP in such a period the impression it’s certainly coming over other party that is going through a crisis. Ukip’s main area of electoral strength, ts MEP base at the European Parliament, is going to cease to exist in just two years time when Britain leaves the EU. The purples are also predicted to have a very tough next month’s set of local elections.

Whatever it’s current situation you cannot deny that the party has been remarkably successful in its main aim – the extraction of the UK from the EU. Since then it has been hard to see the point.

No doubt there will be some betting markets linked to UKIP put up in the next day or so.

Mike Smithson




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UKIP drops to ZERO MPs following Carswell’s decision to leave the party

Saturday, March 25th, 2017


In happier times – Farage with his CON defector in 2014

But no by-election, he’ll remain in Commons as an independent

This lunchtime’s announcement from Douglas Carswell, the MP for Clacton, that he’s to leave UKIP is hardly a surprise. He had been largely detached from the party for months and and it really became a question of not if he would leave the purples but when.

He always appeared uncomfortable with UKIP’s emphasis on immigration and campaigned in the referendum with Vote Leave.

But he is not as some had expected re-joining the Conservatives. He said that he will remain as an MP as an independent. I guess is that he might well join the blues again possibly before the general election.

Given that he resigned and fought a by-election two and a half years ago after he defected to UKIP he would have found it difficult to go directly to the Conservatives and not do the same. Becoming an independent is less of an issue.

    All of this highlights what has become Ukip’s bugbear – its abject failure to be able to secure seats under first past the post. Almost the only elections where it has been successful have been there’s does a proportional element – for the European Parliament and, of course, the list seats for the Welsh Assembly.

The UK leaving the EU in 2019 will put an end to its MEP representation and the next Welsh elections are not till 2021. That’s a long time for the party to go through.

So Britain’s most dysfunctional party becomes even more dysfunctional.

Mike Smithson




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Growing in size Britain’s weirdest voting group: The Kippers who now think leaving the EU is wrong

Friday, March 24th, 2017

Over the last few months, as those who follow the site will know, I have been writing posts and tweets about the YouGov Brexit tracker which come which comes out two or three times a month. The actual question is “In hindsight do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?”

The overall picture is that the gap between those who think the outcome was wrong has and those right has narrowed and for the last two surveys it has been level-pegging.

One of the features of this that always seems to get attention is the number of current UKIP supporters who declare that they think it is wrong in hindsight for Britain to have voted to leave the EU.

When this was just one or two percent it could be just put down to polling respondents clicking the wrong boxes as can happen with multi question online survey forms. In the most recent polling the UKIP numbers edged up and the this week’ YouGov polling has 7% of current UKIP supporters saying they believe it was wrong for Britain to vote LEAVE.

So I thought I would produce a chart showing how this is going and here it is at the top ofthe post. The numbers are, of course, small and this is measuring a subset with all the dangers that that entails but the fact that we see the pattern in the chart, I suggest, says something. I’m not quite sure what.

Mike Smithson




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ComRes becomes the 3rd pollster in a week to have UKIP fourth

Saturday, March 18th, 2017

ComRes for Indy and S Mirror
CON 42
LAB 25
LD 12
UKIP 10

Over the past week YouGov, Ipsos-MORI and now ComRes have found UKIP in fourth place. Partly this is down to the LDs advancing and partly to UKIP’s shares slipping.

LAB, meanwhile is now a colossal 17% behind in very serious trouble indeed. Things don’t look good for Corbyn’s team in the May round of local and Mayoral elections.

Since Corbyn was re-elected as leader last September the party’s plight has got worse and worse and they are now shedding support to the LDs. Mr Corbyn, however, looks unassailable because of the party’s rules.

Amongst other questions ComRes found its sample split over the Brexit process, with roughly equal proportions agreeing that Parliament should be able to veto the Government’s proposed Brexit vote as disagreeing (38% v 42%)

The poll found people more likely to agree than disagree that they do not expect Britain to complete leaving the EU within the current planned two year period (47% v 32%), although there is no clear majority.

The Government’s U-turn on an increase in National Insurance Contributions for the self-employed chimes with voters – more than half (54%) oppose the measure.

A worrying feature for the blue team is that a greater proportion of the sample agreed that Theresa May’s Government does not have the best interests at heart of ‘people like me’ (44% compared to 33%). This suggests that LAB under a decent leader would have something to build on.

Similarly, the public are more likely to disagree than agree that the Budget overall was fair (40% v 34%).

Mike Smithson