Archive for the 'US Politics' Category

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What’ll be the domestic fall-out from this?

Tuesday, July 20th, 2010


BBC News

Almost certainly the key moment of this evening’s Obama/Cameron news conference were the comments on the decision by the Scottish government last year to free Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi and allow him to return to Libya.

The condemnation from both leaders was strong and forthright and the PM has promised a review of the case to provide further information. It was, of course, the Brown government that was in power when the controversial decision was made.

This has also got tied into the BP issue with suggestions that the company had pressed the government.

With the next major set of UK elections being the ones next May for the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly I just wonder what the impact of Cameron comments might be? Could they reinforce the nationalist position.

Mike Smithson



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Is this a turning point for Obama?

Monday, March 22nd, 2010


SkyNews

What does it do to his 2012 chances?

The big overnight news is Obama’s victory by 219 votes to 212 in the House of Representatives for his controversial healthcare reforms after a prolonged and massive battle.

There’s little doubt that if this had failed then his chances winning of a second term in 2012 would have suffered a major blow. In the past months his approval ratings have taken a sharp knock and getting this through had become a test of his presidency.

The final vote was tight with every Republican representative voting against as well as 34 Democrats.

How this will go down amongst the voters we will see in eight months time when the crucial mid-term elections take place. Generally the party of the incumbent president does badly and Obama’s powerful position in Congress could be threatened.

Ladbrokes now make Obama the 10/11 favourite to win the next White House race. Last night he was 11/10.

Mike Smithson



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What’s Massachusetts going to do Obama’s re-election chances?

Wednesday, January 20th, 2010


CNN

Could be become a one-term president?

The big overnight political news from the US was the dramatic loss by the Democrats of the Senate seat in Massachusetts that had been held by Edward Kennedy.

Inevitably pundits are looking forward to to 2012 and asking whether this means that his chances have got worse. Before that, of course, he has to go through this November’s mid-terms which traditionally can prove challenging for the White House incumbent.

It will also make the fight for the Republication nomination that more intense.

No doubt it will add to the speculation about Sarah Palin but the immediate overnight winner in terms of that contest was former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney.

I’ve still got hopes for my 200/1 bet from November 2008, Jon Huntsman.

Congratulations to those on the site who have been calling yesterday’s election for the GOP for several weeks. Alas it generated very little UK betting interest.

  • Today: My apologises for being fairly detached from the site at the moment. I’m in London again and throughout the day I’ll be at an academic conference on polling at which all the big players are attending.
  • Mike Smithson



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    Massachusetts live thread

    Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

    Will it be a Democrat disaster in the Bay State?

    UPDATE: Massachusetts called for Brown (GOP)

    Boston Globe town-by-town results

    Vote count from AP

    Politico

    RCP Live Blog

    CNN feed

    Double Carpet