http://politicalbetting.com The web's premier resource for political betting. Fri, 19 Mar 2010 20:46:10 +0000 http://backend.userland.com/rss092 en How would the vote split? Lots of talk today about how many candidates the "others" - GREEN/UKIP/BNP - will actually have standing in the election. UKIP looks as though it will have in excess of 500 but the other two parties are probably going to fall short by quite a distance. With this ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/19/what-happens-if-there-is-no-greenukipbnp-standing/ Click to play Is a post-election challenge now likely? One story that really has not been given the coverage it perhaps should was this moment in the commons on Tuesday afternoon when Speaker Bercow sought to prevent Tory front-bencher, Theresa Villiers, from raising Labour's links with UNITE during a question on the ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/19/was-this-the-moment-bercow-signed-his-own-death-warrant/ Harris poll for The Metro Mar 16 Mar 9 CONSERVATIVES 36% 37% LABOUR 28% 29% LIB DEMS 18% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/19/the-tories-still-lead-by-8-points-with-harris/ An example of what's been happening But WHY are Labour panellists less keen on taking part?? The head of YouGov Peter Kellner has outlined changes that are being made to the firm's methodology for those on its panel listed as "Labour Loyal" identifiers - those who told the pollster this is ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/19/yougov-makes-changes-to-deal-with-reluctant-labour/ YouGov Daily poll Mar 18 Mar 17 CONSERVATIVES 36% 36% LABOUR 32% 32% LIB DEMS 20% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 3% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/18/no-change-in-the-yougov-daily-poll/ An invitation to participants to do a PB guest slot Tomorrow an academic conference starts in Manchester on forecasting the general election. A series of papers are going to be presented and all of them, as far as I can gather, suggest that there will be a hung parliament. I've already invited ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/18/should-we-be-paying-more-attention-to-the-dons/ Populus http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/18/how-do-unite-members-view-the-main-leaders/ YouGov May 1 2008 But was it based on a different weighting structure? Nobody can dispute that Boris Johnson's election as London mayor on May 2nd 2008 was a sensational achievement for YouGov. For the second mayoral election in a row they got the final result correct to within one percent at ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/18/looking-back-to-yougovs-2008-boris-triumph/ YouGov Daily poll Mar 17 Mar 16 CONSERVATIVES 36% 37% LABOUR 32% 32% LIB DEMS 20% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% 3.5% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/17/but-the-tories-drop-a-point-in-the-daily-poll/ Seat spreads CON LAB LD SportingIndex 332-337 (+2) 223-228 (-2) 57-60 (+2) Extrabet 328-333 (-2) 230-235 (+2) 57-60 (nc) Betfair 333-336 227-231 53.5-56.5 http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/17/the-wednesday-evening-spreads/ Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 17 Mar 11 CONSERVATIVES 39% 39% LABOUR 26% 26% LIB DEMS 21% 18% LAB to CON swing from 2005 8% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/17/labour-still-down-at-26pc-with-angus-reid/ Will rubbishing Clegg encourage tactical voting? Being identified on both the Labour and Tory central databases as a Lib Dem in a highly marginal seat I'm getting a lot of attention from both big parties - this latest, an expensive postcard, came in the mail this morning. Squeezing known LDs ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/17/will-this-labour-effort-persuade-lib-dems-to-switch/ What if Bercow does what he did yesterday? With the BA strike getting closer then Cameron is surely going to raise it with Mr. Brown at PMQs today. But what happens if he touches on the Labour party's close links with the union involved, UNITE. Could Speaker Bercow do what he sought ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/17/will-cameron-get-pulled-up-if-he-raises-unites-funding/ RNB - New Delhi Mar 10 2005 CONSERVATIVES 39% 33.2% LABOUR 31% 36.2% LIB DEMS 20% 22.7% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% -- ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/17/now-a-pollster-from-india-enters-the-fray/ YouGov Daily poll Mar 16 Mar 15 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 32% 32% LIB DEMS 19% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 3.5% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/16/tories-still-5-ahead-in-the-daily-poll/ Seat spreads CON LAB LD SportingIndex 330-335 225-230 55-58 Extrabet 330-335 228-233 57-60 Betfair 333-336 227-231 54-55.5 So all are in Tory majority territory With 325 seats being the technical threshold for a majority ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/16/tonights-commons-seat-spreads/ Will "change" be the big issue? Which of these two opposing thoughts do you think you would be most likely to agree with? CON voters LAB Voters LD Voters TOTAL Continuity in important, stick with Labour 2% 78% 25% 27% Time ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/16/is-this-the-killer-question/ WhatGas.com How will this go down in the marginals? The lead story in the Telegraph this morning is a warning by the AA that the price of a litre could "within day" hit the £1.20 a litre mark. This would make it more expensive than during the last peak in July 2008 ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/16/what-if-the-price-of-a-litre-reaches-gbp-120/ YouGov Daily poll Mar 15 Mar 12 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 32% 33% LIB DEMS 21% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% 3% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/15/clegg-gets-boost-in-the-daily-poll/ Opinium (Daily Express) Mar 15 Mar 8 CONSERVATIVES 39% 37% LABOUR 28% 30% LIB DEMS 16% 16% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 4.5% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/15/new-pollster-opinium-also-finds-a-move-to-the-blues/ ICM ICM Guardian Mar 14 Mar 11 CONSERVATIVES 40% 38% LABOUR 31% 31% LIB DEMS 20% 21% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6% 5% Tories ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/15/has-the-labour-fight-back-stalled/ BBC What this going to do to the leadership betting? A couple of month ago I started ploughing money on the post-December 31 2010 option in the Brown exit date betting after the PM had made comments similar to his interview on Woman's Hour this morning. Even if he's defeated and Cameron ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/15/will-labour-let-a-defeated-brown-carry-on/ Betfair Politics What will it take to make NOM the favourite? The latest price from Ladbrokes on the election ending with no party having an overall majority has moved over the past seven days from 7/4 to 13/8. Thus the profit from a £100 winning bet would be £162.50 today rather ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/15/why-arent-the-polls-convincing-punters/ Wikimedia Commons © Glenn Francis, www.PacificProDigital.com Netherlands heads list of international elections this spring With Viktor Yanukovych now inaugurated as President of Ukraine (and Tymoshenko departing as PM to boot), Sebastian Piñera taking the reins of an earthquake-ravaged Chile, and Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts continuing to impact on the push to ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/14/unveiling-the-%e2%80%9cspring-collection%e2%80%9d/ ICM: Oct 8 2009 CON 2009 LAB 2009 LD 2009 Voted CON in 2005 94% 0% 2% Voted LAB in 2005 20% 62% 11% Voted LD in 2005 14% 12% 68% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/14/look-how-the-icm-churn-numbers-have-changed/ Gallup polls 1970 CON LAB LIB January 48% 41% 7% February 48% 41% 9% March 46% 41% 9% April 47% 42% 7% May ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/14/what-does-this-say-about-tory-polling-wobbles/ YOUGOV YouGov daily poll (Sunday Times) Mar 12 Mar 11 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 33% 34% LIB DEMS 17% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/13/but-the-tory-lead-goes-up-with-yougov/ ICM Sunday Telegraph Mar 11 Mar 4 CONSERVATIVES 38% 40% LABOUR 31% 31% LIB DEMS 21% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 6% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/13/the-tories-drop-two-with-icm/ Wikipedia Could 1950 be a good precedent for Labour? As we count down to the 2010 election I've been trawling through the numbers from elections long past to see if there are any lessons for today. And the one that Labour might take heart from is 1950 when Clem Attlee's then party had ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/13/can-gordon-do-a-clement-attlee/ What should we make of his “mandate” comment? It’s unusual for the Lib Dems to get drawn into discussions about possible election results and what they’d do in a hung parliament. There are no easy answers and all scenarios tend to lead the discussion towards Labour and the Conservatives rather than ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/13/has-clegg-put-cameron-on-pole-position/ Eve of election PB gathering - March 31st 6.30pm Thanks again to Fat Steve for organising this but we are having a pre-election informal get-together at the historic Dirty Dicks pub opposite the main entrance to Liverpool Street station. The time and date: 6.30 pm Wednesday March 31st. Following the points raised ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/12/will-you-be-there-at-dirty-dicks/ Could it open up the UNITE-Labour link? Any big development that could affect large numbers of people in such a politically potent period as this has to be looked at in terms of how it could impact on voting in the election. At the very minimum the action could dominate the news ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/12/could-this-impact-on-the-general-election/ YouGov Angus Reid When you get two polls, apparently so far apart as YouGov and Angus Reid, it's very hard to come up with an explanation except by digging deep into the the data. Fortunately we got all the Angus Reid data from the latest poll within hours of its publication. The weighting ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/12/yougov-vs-ar-is-it-all-down-to-the-weightings/ Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 11 Feb 19 CONSERVATIVES 39% 38% LABOUR 26% 26% LIB DEMS 18% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 8% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/11/but-pbangus-reid-has-the-gap-widening-to-13-points/ YouGov poll (The Sun) Mar 11 Mar 10 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 34% 32% LIB DEMS 17% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/11/labour-gets-two-points-closer-in-the-daily-poll/