http://politicalbetting.com The web's premier resource for political betting. Fri, 12 Mar 2010 05:06:04 +0000 http://backend.userland.com/rss092 en YouGov Angus Reid When you get two polls, apparently so far apart as YouGov and Angus Reid, it's very hard to come up with an explanation except by digging deep into the the data. Fortunately we got all the Angus Reid data from the latest poll within hours of its publication. The weighting ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/12/yougov-vs-ar-is-it-all-down-to-the-weightings/ Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 11 Feb 19 CONSERVATIVES 39% 38% LABOUR 26% 26% LIB DEMS 18% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 8% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/11/but-pbangus-reid-has-the-gap-widening-to-13-points/ YouGov poll (The Sun) Mar 11 Mar 10 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 34% 32% LIB DEMS 17% 17% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/11/labour-gets-two-points-closer-in-the-daily-poll/ Yet more polls on the way! Marf, PB's cartoonist, has been totally tied up for months in a big project but she's still keen to maintain her links with PB. The above drawing was done for the site's 5th birthday last year and hasn't been published before. So as we wait for ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/11/a-special-cartoon-by-marf/ Research by Dr Jane Green and Dr Will Jennings, Manchester University A new measure by researchers at the University of Manchester shows a significant problem for Gordon Brown: the mood of the country is against Labour on policy competence. It is as serious for Gordon Brown as it was for the ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/11/forget-voting-intention-what-about-the-countrys-mood/ All views are welcome especially from lurkers In conjunction with Woodnewton Associates we are carrying out a survey of PB users to find out more about ourselves, how we might improve the site and also to get a feel for the political make-up of the PB community. This is the first time ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/11/take-part-in-the-pb-user-surveypb-survey/ YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 10 Mar 9 CONSERVATIVES 37% 36% LABOUR 32% 32% LIB DEMS 17% 20% LAB to CON swing from 2005 4% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/10/tories-extend-lead-by-a-point-in-the-daily-poll/ UNS - Exploring the Distortions I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part three of three. It is an article of faith that the electoral system is inherently biased against ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/10/andy-cooke-on-the-uns-part-3/ Look at how out of line it was in March 1997 One of the phrases you hear time and time again about ICM's polling is that it is "The Gold Standard". This came from its performance at the 1997 general election when it was wildly out of line with everybody else and ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/10/will-icm-remain-the-gold-standard/ Come on you guys - follow the media narrative? After doing my posting on the Populus marginals poll early yesterday I thought I'd try to make a quick buck by betting £257 on the "no overall majority" option in the Betfair overall majority market. The price I got, was 1.9/1 and ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/10/hung-parliament-punters-not-convinced/ Harris poll for The Metro Mar 9 Feb 22 CONSERVATIVES 37% 39% LABOUR 29% 30% LIB DEMS 18% 22% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/09/all-parties-take-a-hit-with-harris/ YouGov daily poll (The Sun) Mar 9 Mar 8 CONSERVATIVES 36% 39% LABOUR 32% 34% LIB DEMS 20% 16% LAB to CON swing from 2005 3.5% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/09/big-boost-for-nick-clegg-in-the-daily-poll/ Evening Standard "....But the kind of scrutiny to which certain punters subject opinion polls now is useful — and greater than that of some political obsessives. When Kellner appeared for a live online discussion on politicalbetting.com last week, he was grilled by dozens of punters probing the finer points of YouGov's ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/09/lets-all-pat-ourselves-on-the-back/ Notice how others are large - like Angus Reid The new kid on the polling block, Opinium, has published its historic polls and it is interesting to track how it compares with everybody else. The striking feature for me is that it consistently has a high share for others - very much ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/09/opinium-publish-their-historic-polls/ Populus marginals poll (Times) F/W Mar 7 2005 CONSERVATIVES 38% 31.5 LABOUR 38% 45.3 LIB DEMS ??% ?? LAB to CON swing 6.7% -- Is ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/09/populus-marginals-poll-has-the-tories-just-short/ YouGov daily poll: The Sun 08/03/10 Prev CONSERVATIVES 39% 38 LABOUR 34% 33 LIB DEMS 16% 17 LAB to CON swing 4% 4% So YouGov ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/08/tories-and-labour-move-up-one-in-the-daily-poll/ "Opinium" for the Express 08/03/10 2005 CONSERVATIVES 37% 33.2 LABOUR 30% 36.2 LIB DEMS 16% 22.7 LAB to CON swing 5% ?? This is a ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/08/new-pollster-has-373016/ Will tonight's poll be in ICM or YouGov territory? After a weekend which has seen two very different views from the pollsters we are due the March Populus survey for the Times this evening. The big question is whether it will have figures in the YouGov family territory (down to 2% ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/08/which-way-will-populus-be-going/ Ipsos-MORI What does this say about potential turnout? Two of the great things about Ipsos-MORI is that it has been political polling in the UK for longer than any other firm with a website that has a mine of information going back decades. Another good thing is that the firm's non-voting intention ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/08/q-how-important-is-it-to-you-personally-who-wins-the-general-election/ "Is Brown/Cameron/Clegg doing well-badly as PM/CON leader/LD leader .." "Well" "Badly" +/- Brown 36% (36) 60% (58) -2% Cameron 48% (50) 44% (39) -7% Clegg 43% (42) 31% (28) -2% Are the Tories right to make Brown the issue? This is the second of my planned weekly threads on what many pundits believe are the best guide to forecasting general elections - the leader approval ratings. ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/08/cameron-hit-most-as-all-the-leader-ratings-drop/ Times online What do these say about hung parliaments and the LDs? Reproduced above are a couple of findings from today's Sunday Times YouGov poll which I think might have signficance. The first is a form of forced choice question where the responses are Lib Dem supporters are the most interesting. Just ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/07/how-do-hung-parliament-advocates-deal-with-this/ Uniform National Swing – the track record I’ve put together a short series on UNS – what it is, what’s its track record, and what levels of distortion have occurred in recent elections. This is part two of three. When did UNS break? It can’t simply be one of those ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/07/andy-cooke-on-the-uns-part-2/ CON 36% (33.2) LAB 34% (36.2) LD 18% (22.7) Comparisons are with the 2005 result LAB>CON swing on 2005: 2.5% Second YouGov family poll has it down to 2 points There was another poll from the YouGov family overnight - this time from the firm that trades under the name of BPIX. It's ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/07/will-you-be-betting-on-the-yougov-family-or-icm/ CON 40% (37) LAB 31% (30) LD 18% (20) LAB>CON swing on 2005: 6% Has the move to Labour run out of steam? A new ICM poll for the News of the World goes very much against the trend of the past few weeks and has the Tories increasing their lead over ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/06/icm-has-the-blues-back-in-the-40s/ British Election Study But could Labour activists now be more motivated? In the next few weeks we'll be seeing a lot of data about difference aspects of the campaign from the British Election Study - a big academic programme involving a number of universities and quite a lot of polling. In this ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/06/how-much-can-we-read-into-this/ Is there no date because they can't agree the contents? Last year’s budget was delivered on 22 April, the latest ‘regular’ budget since they reverted to their traditional Spring slot. That date was announced on 12 February. More than three weeks beyond the equivalent date this year, there has been no ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/06/will-there-be-a-pre-election-budget/ CON 39% (33.2) LAB 31% (36.2) LD 19% (22.7) LAB>CON swing on 2005: 5.7% Yet another pollster enters the fray There's a new voting intention survey out tonight from the Edinburgh-firm, TNS-BMRB, which has just started doing general election polls for the whole of Britain. The firm is well-established in Scotland and ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/05/tories-take-an-8-point-lead-with-tns-bmrb/ What do we think of the Anthony Wells explanation? YouGov staffer and operator of UKPollingReport, Anthony Wells, has put up a long post seeking to answer some of the points about the firm's weightings that have appeared here in recent days. The essence of his article is that there have been adjustments ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/05/yougov-seeks-to-placate-its-weightings-critics/ CON 29% (21.4) LAB 37% (42.7) LD 12% (18.4) PC 14% (12.6) But the Tories are down on January A new YouGov poll of Welsh Westminster voting intentions points to a 6.6% swing to the Tories since the May 2005 general election and the possibility of eight gains. ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/05/yougov-points-to-disproportionate-swing-in-wales/ Will ICM and Populus be going with the flow? One of the difficulties looking at current polling is that YouGov are doing so many surveys that they almost drown out everybody else - and we have not heard for some time from the two firms, ICM and Populus, which will be ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/05/what-about-the-firms-that-havent-changed-since-2005/ CON 38% (38) LAB 32% (32) LD 17%(19) So what IS going to move the numbers? The incredibly consistent daily poll continues to remain very stable - unmoved by bullygate and now by Michael Ashcroft - that you begin to wonder what could change the numbers. The Tories would feel much more comfortable ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/04/no-change-in-the-daily-poll-tory-lead/ UPDATED But the swing is only two points better A YouGov poll for Channel 4 in 60 key seats by YouGov has the gap between the parties down to just two points - but given what happened in the seats in 2005 this represents a 6.5% swing. This compares with a swing ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/04/yougov-marginals-poll-has-lead-down-to-two-points/ BBC News There's been news within the past half hour that the Electoral Commission is to rule that donations to the Tory party by a company owned the controversial deputy chair, Michael Ashcroft, have been declared to be legal. The body has been examining 173 donations totally more than five million ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/04/so-where-does-the-ashcroft-story-go-from-here/ What'll be the consequences in the marginals? Did I miss the glaringly obvious when I wrote that I did not know what had caused the 3% boost for the Lib Dems in the overnight YouGov daily poll for the Sun? For the reason was plain to see as Mike L commented ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/04/did-nick-clegg-get-his-first-debate-dividend/ CON 38% (38) LAB 32% (33) LD 19%(16) And the Lib Dems move up three Apart from that blip at the weekend when the Tory lead slipped to just two points the daily poll has had pretty stable figures and tonight's numbers are no exception. The Tories stable, Labour down one and ... http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/03/03/the-daily-poll-tory-lead-moves-up-a-notch/