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Away from the Commons pairing row the betting gets tighter on whether Brexit will happen on time

July 19th, 2018

Betdata.io

I’ve been glued to the Tour de France coverage this afternoon and haven’t really been following the pairing row.

The chart shows the changing views in the “Will UK leave the EU by March 29 2019” betting and shows it getting tighter. Clearly the politics are so much harder to read.

One other development that hasn’t been much reported on is the growing movement within Momentum to call for a new Brexit vote as reported here in this FT video

If LAB’s position shifts then that could make things even harder for the Government.

Mike Smithson





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BoJo moves to joint next CON leader favourite with Moggsy following his resignation speech

July 19th, 2018


Betdata.io

With so much up in the air in British politics at the moment there’s been a lot of movement in the next CON leader betting. It is beginning to look as though Theresa May will survive until the autumn at least and maybe beyond and the question is who will actually replace her?

Yesterday, of course, the ex Foreign Secretary secured a lot of coverage for his resignation address to MPs. Although it was nothing like the dramatic event that some were predicting, it got him media attention and reminded us that he is still a force to be reckoned with and he is strongly on the hard Brexit side of the party.

He’s also going to be returning to his Daily Telegraph column something which gives him a platform that can be influential within the Conservative Party.

Whatever it is still extremely difficult to work out who will make it once Theresa May goes whether she’s pushed or does it voluntarily.

My view remains that there is not going to be immediate contest simply because there is such a division within the Tories on who would be the successor and nobody wants to risk a contest unless they are confident that their man or woman would make it.

Mike Smithson




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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: The week the polls turned, Boris makes a speech and why Theresa May is a modern day Mr Burns

July 18th, 2018

This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into two parts.

In part one, Keiran Pedley is joined by James Crouch of Opinium to discuss polling that shows Labour taking the lead as the Tory vote share falls. Keiran and James discuss why this is and whether the Tories could fall further still and what voters think of the concept of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit.

In part two, Keiran is joined by Asa Bennet of the Telegraph to discuss what’s been happening in Westminster this week, including Boris Johnson’s resignation speech today. Asa looks ahead to a critical Tory party conference season and gives his perspective on who might replace Theresa May in the future.

Finally, Keiran sums up what we’ve learned and explains why Boris Johnson reminds him of David Miliband and why Theresa May reminds him of Mr Burns from The Simpsons. A stretch? You’ll have to listen to find out why…

Follow this week’s guests:






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BoJo’s resignation speech – some reaction

July 18th, 2018

It certainly wasn’t up to the Sir Geoffrey Howe standard



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PB Video Analysis: Brexit – What Does “No Deal”Actually Mean?

July 18th, 2018

The UK is due to leave the EU on March 29th 2019. With Mrs May’s Chequers deal rejected by the Commons, and no obvious alternative on the table, leaving the EU with No Deal and previous little preparation is looking increasingly likely.

In this video, I ask ask what the consequences would be. Would food become scarce? Would the economy collapse? Or is this just another example of Project Fear?

(And please click the funny YouTube button above to subscribe!)

Robert Smithson

Robert tweets as ‘@MarketWarbles’




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The big post-Helsinki polling question is will Trump’s ratings recovery be hit?

July 17th, 2018


RCP

Judging by the US media there’s no doubt that Helsinki was bad for Trump. But was it? Will he still retain the support of his base? What will be the electoral impact of yesterday.

US polling uses leader ratings much more widely than the experience in the UK and the first post meeting ratings numbers are eagerly awaited.

As can be seen from the chart he has been enjoying something of a recovery. Will that be sustained or will he fall back.

Mike Smithson




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Another day goes by and still 48 CON MPs have not sent letters demanding a TMay confidence ballot

July 17th, 2018

If its like the IDS ousting the first signs will be on Betfair

Since the Conservative Party introduced its new leadership roles while William Hague was in charge the procedure for getting rid of the incumbent has only been used once. That was, of course, the ousting of Iain Duncan Smith in October 2003.

What was intriguing about that dismissal was that the events behind closed doors in Westminster were largely being reflected on Betfair. Like now there were two markets – whether he would survive and then, of course, in the betting on who would succeed.

Even before we heard the news that thought that the requisite number of MPs had requested a confidence vote there were signs of Betfair that something was afoot. The odds on Smith not being there by the end of the year started to tighten.

While the confidence ballot was taking place there were two developments: firstly in the Smith survival market and at the same time there was a rush of money going on Michael Howard. The latter, of course, secured the top job without having to be troubled by facing a members ballot.

Given the problems that Theresa May is facing following last night’s Commons vote you would have thought that there’s a possibility she would be in trouble. Not so. She remains on a 38% chance to go this year or a 62% chance that she will survive.

The difference between now and 2003 is twofold: firstly the Tories are in power and we’re talking about a new prime minister and, of course, there is no agreement about who should be her successor.

It is that latter factor that I believe has prevented a move taking place against her. There’s no point in moving into the unknown unless you’ve got a pretty clear idea who you think will be the one to win the ensuing contest.

Mike Smithson




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At a 70%+ chance the betting markets are surely over-rating Trump’s chances of being the WH2020 GOP nominee

July 17th, 2018

The best post-Helsinki bets?

Judging by the reaction in the US overnight Donald Trump’s meeting with Vladimir Putin has gone down like a like a bowl of cold sick most strikingly within his own party. He’s been damaged.

There’s no point in me repeating here the wide coverage that we’ve seen but question for punters, surely, is what are the best Trump bets.

There are, as we know, many markets.

Will he complete a full first term? (Betfair 74%)

What year will see him leave the White House? (Betfair after 2020 80% chance)

Will he win the presidency in 2020? (Betfair 40%)

The bet I like most because it covers more possibilities is whether he will be the Republican nominee for 2020. The Betfair Exchange currently has this at 70%+ chance which to my mind, giving everything we now know, overstates his chances.

So I have just laid (bet against) Trump being the Republican nominee at the Betfair exchange level of 1.42 – which equates to a 70% chance.

My guess is that that this will ease in the aftermath of his talks with Mr. Putin and possibly offer short term trading opportunities.

Mike Smithson