politicalbetting.com

Historically in American politics in the first midterm elections following a new President the party that does not control the White House does well in the Senate and House elections.These take place on November 8th That is certainly happening this year in the betting on the House elections where as can be seen from the charts the assumption of punters is that this will be a relatively easy victory for the Republicans If you want to bet on the composition…

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A man tries to murder a British writer for what he wrote in a novel published 34 years ago, 10 years before the would-be murderer was born. A Police Community Support Officer in Britain seeks to lecture a woman about changing her views on trans rights despite two police officers having previously visited and determined that the woman was committing no offence by displaying a sticker, expressing different views to that of the PCSO, in her window. A British university…

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What a legacy

One of the big Boris Johnson issues on which punters have a mixed view is whether he’ll remain as an MP until at least the next General Election. The best place to bet on this is the Smarkets market above on whether there will be a by-election in Johnson’s seat before the general election. A lot here depends on how Johnson sees his future career and on that my guess is that he hasn’t made his mind up. If he…

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An early U-Turn? The screen grab above is from the front page of the Times and sets out neatly the very big decision that the new PM will have to take when she takes over early next month. Starmer has put forward his freeze bills plan and YouGov polling appears to show that this is resonating with voters. That three in four CON voters want to do what Starmer is suggesting make this a tricky one for Truss. The big…

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I have been utterly mesmerised by this polling from YouGov, straws have one big hole, not two and I’m astonished that 46% of the country either disagree or do not know. Look, we all agree that one doughnut has but one doughnut hole, the same principle applies to straws, like Highlander, there can only be one. TSE

My prediction for the popularity of Liz Truss and her government is closely tied to the where the price cap ends up this winter. If Truss sticks to her rhetoric of no handouts then there’s no floor to the government’s unpopularity. With Vladimir Putin set to punish the West for standing up against his war of aggression against Ukraine by messing about with Europe’s energy supply I’d expect the price cap to go well north of £5,000 and willing to…

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The most interesting aspect of UK politics over the next few months will be seeing how the new Tory leader and Prime Minister, Liz Truss, does against Keir Starmer and vice versa. Their first PMQs is going to be a must watch. One thing is clear is that the Tory leadership contest has really helped Truss who has become far more confident and a better communicator than she was at the start of the campaign. A problem might be that…

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