Getting Brexit done, badly

Getting Brexit done, badly

Over the next few weeks I’ll be looking at the reasons why I’m doubtful about Labour winning a majority (which doesn’t mean I’m not laying a Tory majority), one of the reasons is Brexit. Looking at those findings from YouGov, these type of findings aren’t atypical about Brexit from various pollsters. 2% of Brits think Brexit has gone very well, whereas 7% of Brits say they have seen a UFO, so yes, more than 3 times the number of Brits…

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The economy and inflation dominate the latest Ipsos Issues Index

The economy and inflation dominate the latest Ipsos Issues Index

We have not looked at the above polling for quite some time and this is unique in that those sampled are not giving a list of issues from which they can choose. Instead they are asked to think of their main concerns completely unprompted. Arguably this gives a better picture. This is very dangerous territory for the government and it is probably one of the reasons why the Tories have been struggling so much in the voting intention polls. People…

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Some positive polling for Starmer from Ipsos

Some positive polling for Starmer from Ipsos

The best figures for LAB since Tony Blair I just love the way that the pollster Ipsos manages to dig up historical comparisons and gives us a framework for judging how the parties and individual politicians are doing at the moment. Ipsos, of course, has been polling since the 1970s and has a huge archive of historical polls. As can be seen the proportion of voters who think that the opposition is ready to form the next government is at…

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No Sh*t, Sherlock!

No Sh*t, Sherlock!

“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach.” (Huxley) As with history, so with investigation reports. On the Today programme, Mark Rowley, Met Commissioner, said 100 officers were on restricted duties “because frankly we don’t trust them to talk to members of the public”. 500 officers were subject to misconduct investigations plus another 3,000 who also could not be deployed because of injury, mental…

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Why the Scottish Independence debate is not over

Why the Scottish Independence debate is not over

A special report from Gerry Hassan The UK Supreme Court judgement that the Scottish Parliament does not have the right tohold a referendum on independence because it is a ‘reserved matter’ to Westminster maynot have been a surprise, but this was still a landmark day for Scotland, independence andthe UK. Take some of the personalised partisan coverage. ‘End of the Road for Sturgeon’ declaredthe Scottish edition of the Daily Mail with more pejorative commentary inside along suchlines as ‘Sturgeon the…

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A 15% lead would give LAB a majority of just 8 seats

A 15% lead would give LAB a majority of just 8 seats

The reason why LAB appears to do so badly in terms of seats for what appears to be a very large vote share is that its support is far less spread over the country than the Tory vote. A significant part of the Labour vote is in seats with very big majorities and this means essentially those votes are wasted. The Tory vote is spread much more widely This is one of the reasons why I think Labour will struggle…

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Brexiteers should expect a lot more polling like this

Brexiteers should expect a lot more polling like this

Sunak cannot rely on the status quo We are starting to see a fair bit of polling like this where the issue of the UK’s relationship with the EU is the focus. . Last week YouGov had the number of people saying that Brexit was wrong reaching a new level with significantly about a fifth of leave voters taking that view. The above JL Partners poll in the FT looks at this in a different way but the overall picture…

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