Biden should be a stronger favourite than this to win a second term

Biden should be a stronger favourite than this to win a second term

Joe Biden will be 79 in November and provided his health holds then he’ll surely seek to retain the White House at WH2024. So far his approval ratings are just about holding up and next time the Dems will face a party that is now in the total control of Trump who would be a not too difficult opponent to face even though he is still in denial about what happened last November. Actually, I don’t think he believes a…

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Johnson drops sharply in the August CONHome satisfaction ratings

Johnson drops sharply in the August CONHome satisfaction ratings

Time to be bet on a possible early exit? Every month we have the Conservative Home satisfaction ratings of cabinet ministers and the big feature of the latest one is the position of the PM. He’s down since last month a massive 36% and has a net satisfaction rating of just 3.4. As one of the many comments on the site put it “Boris should have learned the lesson from his predecessor. People don’t like dithering, and don’t like being…

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The LAB MP in CON General ElectionTarget Number 1 knocks on my door

The LAB MP in CON General ElectionTarget Number 1 knocks on my door

The “99%” certain CON gain according to the exit poll At about 4pm on election night in December 2019 I decided to call it a day and try to get some sleep. Before I did I checked if my own result in Bedford had come in and the BBC website suggested the count was still going on but that this was a “99% certain Tory gain” according to the exit poll. Well that was pretty emphatic and I didn’t bother…

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Why you should be cautious before betting on the next Scottish independence referendum

Why you should be cautious before betting on the next Scottish independence referendum

Don’t let the bookies get away Scot free. Nota bene, for the purposes of this piece ‘wildcat referendum’ refers to a plebiscite held without a section 30 order. With life starting to get back some sort of normality I expect the usual political issues to rear their collective and individual heads soon. Primus inter pares is likely to be Scottish independence where in May the Indyref2 movement secured a majority at Holyrood. This piece isn’t looking at the result of…

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MIND THE GAP: HOW LONG WILL BORIS JOHNSON SERVE AS PRIME MINISTER?

MIND THE GAP: HOW LONG WILL BORIS JOHNSON SERVE AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Wikipedia – data tables can be viewed here. Serving as Prime Minister for a long time does not guarantee that history will remember you kindly. But I suspect most who reach the summit of politics are keenly aware of their place in the longevity league table. The chart above shows the length of time served as Prime Minister for each of the 77 individual stints. They can be grouped into three broad categories: 1) The also-rans: 50 stints of…

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YouGov/Times “Blue Wall” poll finds six point CON to LAB swing since GE2019

YouGov/Times “Blue Wall” poll finds six point CON to LAB swing since GE2019

As has been widely reported there’s a YouGov/S Times poll of “blue wall” seats to see the change since GE2019. The outcome is not good for the Tories and suggests that it might be challenging holding on to them and red wall ones at the same time. With the Tories dropping 8% and LAB going up by 4% that equates to a CON to LAB swing of 6%. The Tory seats chosen for the poll all voted Remain at the…

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My last bet was stupid – Win or lose

My last bet was stupid – Win or lose

Last week I wrote about the Olympic medal markets, and why I had bet on the USA to get under 111 and 113 medals with two bookies. This was stupid. I placed the bet for the wrong reasons and went beyond my Circle of Competence. A Circle of Competence is a subject area where a person has the appropriate skills and expertise to operate. It isn’t only experts who have Circles of Competence, we all do, theirs are just bigger…

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The growing NHS waiting list is arguably the Tories’ biggest challenge

The growing NHS waiting list is arguably the Tories’ biggest challenge

The Tories cannot go into the next election with 5m on the list One of the inevitable consequences of dealing with COVID has been the impact on those who have wanted the NHS for other reasons who are currently on waiting lists of one sort or another. It is estimated that there are 5m currently on them and this could be increasing all the time. Inevitably the primary focus has been on controlling the infection but as that pressure eases…

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