If uniform national swing (UNS) applies then the Tories will make it three by-election wins out of three

If uniform national swing (UNS) applies then the Tories will make it three by-election wins out of three

So far we have not had any opinion polls on the next two Westminster by-elections – Chesham & Amersham (June 17th) and Batley & Spen (July 1st) but in each case the Tories are firm odds-on favourites in the betting. We also saw what happened at Hartlepool on May 6th and the broad assumption is that the same trends will be seen in the next two up. Certainly that is how punters are looking at them. At C&A the Tories…

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The right wing press appears uneasy about where BoJo is going

The right wing press appears uneasy about where BoJo is going

The worry that is starting to be expressed a lot more is that BoJo & co so much enjoy all the powers that fighting COVID has given them that they will be reluctant to give it up. For there will always be a reason why things shouldn’t be eased and so far at least the polls are generally supportitve. I just wonder whether a less than good result for the Tories at Chesham & Amersham on Thursday might be an…

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With three days to go the best Chesham and Amersham bet

With three days to go the best Chesham and Amersham bet

Although you might not have noticed it if you follow the national media there is a by-election on Thursday which has the potential to cause shockwaves. Chesham and Amersham is the first such contest since Brecon in 2019 where the LDs think they are in with a shout and have been throwing everything at the campaign. Leader Ed Davey has been there almost every day and hundreds of activists from all over the country have been working on the campaign….

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Controlling COVID – The Three Mistakes

Controlling COVID – The Three Mistakes

The mood music has changed. It seems that Step 4 – the lifting of the remaining legal restrictions – will no longer be happening on June 21st. Indeed, there are some advisors (mostly health professionals of some kind or other) who seem to think that these (social distancing, in particular) should continue indefinitely and for all sorts of reasons: to deal with flu, the backlog in cancer care, other respiratory diseases etc. Quite what sort of society or life they…

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Rishi Sunak looks like a homunculus. This may stymie his leadership ambitions

Rishi Sunak looks like a homunculus. This may stymie his leadership ambitions

The picture above isn’t a photoshop but from the official MOD twitter account, see here. Whilst I don’t want to turn this article into an episode of Father Ted it is clear from past evidence that Rishi Sunak is shorter than most politicians, something which he tries to hide which leads to weird photos. Appearances matter in politics, this is why it has been discussed being bald is bad for party leaders. Back in 2001 one newspaper ‘suggested that a…

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Something to watch over the next few weeks?

Something to watch over the next few weeks?

One of my earliest memories of Scottish independence was back in 1992 when, the then Depute Leader of the Scottish National Party, Jim Sillars lost his seat in the general election and ranted about ’90 minute patriots’ aka part time SNP voters aka how long a football match lasts. Ever since then in my mind the Scottish football team and Scottish independence have been inextricably linked. Now this really hasn’t been much of an issue since the ‘killing Scottish nationalism…

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The betting markets are over-stating Andy Burnham’s chances of succeeding Starmer

The betting markets are over-stating Andy Burnham’s chances of succeeding Starmer

Andy Burnham is riding high at the moment. The latest Ipsos MORI polling on who “has what it takes to be a good PM” had the Mayor of Greater Manchester with better net ratings than either BoJo or Sunak. He was on a net plus 11% with Sunak on a net plus 7% and Johnson on a net plus 2. Ladbrokes currently have former LAB MP and now Mayor of Greater Manchester as 7/2 favourite for next LAB leader. On…

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