Soaring UKIP poll ratings affect several markets UK political betting has been dominated by the UK Independence Party following a YouGov poll showing that that it could beat the Lib Dems for third place in the Euro Elections. In other surveys UKIP has taken 4-5% out of the Tory share of the vote in the main General Election polls as well one on the race for the London Mayor. This affects the General Election, Party Leaders and the London Mayoral…
. The Chief Executive and campaign guru of the Lib Dems, Lord Chris Rennard, has done a brilliant job attacking the postal voting experiment and not just over printing problems, the prospect of sealed letter boxes because of industrial action and fraud. He has rightly pointed out the constitutional implications of the Government ignoring the Electoral Commission’s ruling on the scale of the experiment. But will Lord Rennard’s first action after the Euro Election not be on the postal voting…
. But the Tories are 6% ahead for the London Assembly . The latest poll putting Ken Livingstone 14% ahead might seem fatal to our London call that the election is very close but we have had nothing this time about turnout or 2nd preferences. We have not had, either, the deep probing about the affect of Ken being Labour candidate discussed here yesterday. Ken Livingstone might have been able to obliterate all reference to the fact that he is…
The May ICM poll showing Labour 4% ahead has further reinforced the gap with YouGov which, like Populus, has the Tories 4% ahead.Which pollster should gamblers believe? This week’s YouGov poll showing that UKIP is heading to beat the Lib Dems for third place in next month’s Euro Election – an outcome that would surely mean the end for Charles Kennedy – should enable us to test the pollster.For if on June 10 YouGov can get both the low turnout…
Need the Tories be so gloomy about the Westmister seat distribution? A number of Tory supporters are seeking to raise their General Election hopes by suggesting that the Westminster seat distribution that seems so skewed to Labour might not be as bad for them as it appear. There’s been a particular focus that this factor could be partially off-set by the anti-Tory tactical voting of 1997 and 2001 “unwinding”. Could this happen and what would be the effect? A major…
Our big call on Steve Norris is three-quarters of the way there Mayor of London – person or party. It’s dead easy to call a 1/8 favourite – it’s much harder to call at odds of 11 or more which is what we’ve been doing for months. We said back Norris when he was 21% behind in the polls and prices were in double digits. Now YouGov’s latest London poll shows that Livingstone’s lead has collapsed to a mere 5%…
With all the attention on Tony Blair there has been very little recently on Charles Kennedy’s position as leader of the Lib Dems. The party has been totally focussed on the June 10 European and elections and the general view is that they are going to do well. But are they? The locals should be good but will the Euro vote prove to be the disappointment that it was five years ago? A problem is that the Lib Dems always…
At the end of a difficult period for Tony Blair it’s tempting to bet on the Tories to win most seats at the General Election. The prices look good value and Labour is expected to take a real drubbing in the “Super Thursday” local, London and Euro Elections on June 10. The mood is being reinforced by the way Michael Howard has been able to pursue the Government on Iraq. As Robin Cook writes in the Independent today “Howard may…